Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that Britain has announced massive budget cuts as it tries to turn around its economy and stop borrowing.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne announced cuts in department spending of 19% and up to 500,000 job losses.
This works out at 81 billion pounds of cuts, but will only see the budget deficit drop from 10.1% of GDP to 2.1% of GDP by 2014/15.
Osborne described it as a budget that would get the economy 'back from the brink'.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve's 'Beige Book' measure of economic activity showed the world's largest economy grew at only a 'modest pace' in late September and early October.
This renewed talk the Fed will announce a second round of Quantitative Easing or money printing on November 3.
The US dollar fell to a 15 year low vs the Yen and the renewed suggestions that America wants to print its way out of debt by devaluing its economy and encouraging inflation encouraged investors to put more money in riskier assets, including stocks, junk bonds and emerging markets, particularly those with exposure to rising commodity prices in an inflationary era.
The New Zealand dollar rose to 75.5 USc overnight from 74 USc yesterday and the Australian dollar rose even faster and further. It was up at 98.7 US this morning from 96.5 USc yesterday.
Oil rose US$2 a barrel to US$82 a barrel.
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There seems to be a gradual campaign building to attack the government contributions to Kiwisaver.
First came this:
http://www.nzx.com/news/managed-funds/4245587/Call-to-dump-KiwiSaver-su…
Then it todays Herald:
''The generous taxpayer-funded subsidies to KiwiSaver should now be reduced. It makes sense to keep the $1000 taxpayer-funded opening contribution as an incentive but drop the annual government contribution of $1046 to those who save that amount at minimum''.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=106…
Call me a cynic but I reckon the government have 'planted' this - its now up for discussion. Hardly surprising, its an obvious area for cut backs, given the government's idiotic committment not to raise the pensionable age (as the Poms have announced today)
Wonder what the Mary Holms' of this world will have to say? A large part of her sales pitch on Kiwisaver has been the free government money aspect. Kiwisaver wont look anything like as enticing without that freebie - particularly since you will still be tied in till retirement.
".....there was a shortage of 21,300 skilled workers in the Australian labour market of almost 12 million people.
Ten of the 20 skilled occupation categories measured by the Clarius Skills Index were now experiencing shortages, with six involved in aspects of infrastructure projects across the country.
The shortages were felt most across the building, engineering professionals, construction, metal, automotive and wood tradespersons." the age.com
Anyone want work with fatter pay...cross the Tasman and collect.....or stay here and dream!
that must make you a unpatriotic dreamer, Wally..
Bernard this piece from of all people the BBC puts into context what you are calling 'a budget massacre'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2010/10/spend…
''Are we all making too much fuss about the Spending Review? Nick Clegg thinks so. He likes to point out that, even with all the cuts we will see unveiled tomorrow by the chancellor, total public spending in 2014-15 will only be back to where it was, as a share of the economy, in 2006-7. At the end of the Parliament, the government will be spending £41bn more, in cash terms, than it is today''.
There is a killer graph in the piece.
Mr Hikey .....penned..?..( and the renewed suggestions that America wants to print its way out of debt by devaluing its economy and encouraging inflation encouraged investors to put more money in riskier assets, including stocks, junk bonds and emerging markets, particularly those with exposure to rising commodity prices in an inflationary era.
The New Zealand dollar rose to 75.5 USc overnight from 74 USc yesterday and the Australian dollar rose even faster and further. It was up at 98.7 US this morning from 96.5 USc yesterday. )
Yes and for the genius's out there....... you could take this whole paragraph above as a reflection of just how powerful "suggestion" is as a tool out there in tenderfoot country.
This is just the sort of rhetoric the Americans want trotted out to every dumb assed gumshoe and his dog...and so far it all seems to be going to plan.
I used to believe a lot of long game thinkers were involved in the money go round.....I have come to realise (in my opinion) they are mostly salivating dogs awaiting the sniff of their next meal..........I guess the suggesters must know that too.
I've been thinking the same thing of late, it seems there's a constant "threat" of "Ware goina print" which is bringing the USD down. Is it a big bluff by the Fed? Seems to be going to plan so far.
It seems that way indeed ....rc....and "seems" at the moment is good enough to stay at the
table holding "dead man's hand" and a small rear-view mirror....y'know just in case.
The fuse under the mortgage bomb is fizzing.....
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23629.html
"Foreclosure-gate is heating up and the mad scramble for what's left of $45 trillion in real estate is guaranteed to leave homeowners homeless, pension funds unable to pay their pensions and even some of the biggest banks insolvent. A great housing goat rodeo was created when some of the 65 million mortgages on U.S. homes didn't follow proper legal procedures"
but here in Noddyland the peasants are being encouraged to borrow and buy property...go figure!
Hey... Wally......do you get any commission from ...Market Oracle.....they must get a lot of hits thanks to you uh..?.............happiness upon you.
I have no link to support that statement.
That'll cost you Christov...I figure on $100 every time my name is used. Please send c/- BH.
That's why I use Wally......ya just gotta stay ahead of the game there.
When were they predicting all those Alt-A & A-arm (?) loans to start expiring/rolling over??
Could be the perfect storm, Round 2.
I can see where this is going..like I said if a house is empty for more than a year its a liability,to whomsoever is responsible for it. I mean what are we watching here? free homes? ..Please pick a place and move in..like a pet that needs caring for?...Whatever next?..each day something different and more bizzare takes shape."Great events cast their shadows long before them".
Have you not heard people, there is a major crisis in the world, which has the potential to destroy us all. Why arguing about side issues - day in day out ? For how much longer do you think we can afford to do so ? Why do we not stay together, creating real solutions, making real positive proposals together - working at least for the best interest of New Zealand - our home ?
Just thinking !
Walter....you would not deny me my swipe now would you...?
I've been active in speculating here for a looooooong time now to ...Mr Hikey....the likelyhood of a return to trade protectionism and the alienation of China as a justified culprit in the inability of the "Global Trade" dream to move forward into recovery........
Because "it Seems" I have offered few links to more enlightened thinkers....Mr Hickey....is
now..... offering this line of thinking as fresh news.......and 'that" I find irksome.
As to the potential for real Global disaster ...Walter.....if it goes the way of protectionism there are going to be confrontations that will involve directly the well being of most of the developed / developing.. world.
happy day to you Walter....for today is the only day no one promises you tomorrow.
The blog risks losing the real value of quality debating in order to find better solutions. Because of it’s constant fast NEWS delivery it is becoming more like a “Sensationmainstreamtrivial” and in accordance are the responses –increasingly shallow.
I think you may be right there Walter....and probably the reason why I'm here less these days.
Although this is probably a winding off process for me....I gotta say there have been some really good people on here..(even ones I don't agree with on occasion)....
As to Bernard becoming more sensationalised....I think he's getting... that part right... from a business perspective........whether you or I approve is not important.......beat ups sell blog sites just as they sell newspapers and I assume he wants to be successful .
Just as a parting there Walter.........I value my sense of humor....so I don't feel a need to excuse it.
good luck to you.
Count-of-Christov : Venerable leader of the sad , lonely and bewildered revolutionaries : Your increasing absences have been noted ! In the cock-fighting pits , or in the dens of Tanduay Rhum ? Sober up , man ! You're needed here . The Chicken-Little Hickey / Labour Party brigade are dreary and depressing .......... Read Market-Oracle today ? You see wot I mean .
Hang around and add a little levity . " interest.co.nz " needs us light-hearted scalliwags !
Viva 'la Gumboot Revolution !
Your right Kunst...It dosn't bear thinking about.Make sure your disaster kit is updated..get some seeds,a few Gas cylinders etc.and dont forget a decent bike.Plus a few basic hand tools.One day the cargo Cult will be over for good.
..even down to stupitity.
In the caves , you can recycle your own ear wax to make nifty little yellow-brown candles . Something to help you see the canvas you're painting . We'll open the lid on the shelter for you , when the holocaust has passed ..... trust us ( hee hee hee ! )
Wow, thats a blow.
Another " win " for the Unions , Walter !
Yesterday Dutch Comadoes were pulled out of Iran.....Israel did a dummy bomb run on Damascus...A new American aircraft carrier joined the rest of the flotilla off of Iran...Comandoes blew up Irans rocket launchers. Oh! and the Russian rockets are going to Venezuala,where they will be shipped to Iran to bypass the Embargo..But I dont think they will make it in time.Turkey is going wobbly as Israel trains with the Greeks...and Chinese Bombers have been seen in Iranian skies.....he he he he!
Wow, thats a blow
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/4255670/Hobbit-looks-headed-overseas
Its a real bummer. Once again the Union stuff's it for everybody. A handful of actors have potentially put all those 1500+ odd film techies out of a job, not to mention the flow on effects.
EDIT: I just listened to Robyn Malcom's radio clip, all Hobbits should be equal it seems.
"...She said Warners felt New Zealand was no longer a stable environment for the film, given the threat of industrial action and wanted to take it off shore."
"It is not a tax break relation situation at all. That is not a factor."
I would be interested to know exactly what the union is demanding...anyone have the details?
the union had lifted the boycott prior to the announcement.....Warners have not closed the door yet.......and the Australian arm of the union were the main instigators of the initial boycott.....it will be interesting to see if the Aussies have once again given us the shiv.
Brownlee to meet with Warner Bros next week to "see what their requirements might be". Subsidy? Tax-break?... You betcha
http://tvnz.co.nz/breakfast-news/breakfast-thursday-october-21-3845356/video?vid=3846012
How beautiful would it be if... Warners... got to the end of that meet with the fat man and said .....ath...ath..th..th..bbbth..thats all folks.!
Hehe... Key-to-the-John after some kudos as well:
"The Government will have to sit down and talk to them and see what we can do to restore that confidence."
Finance Minister Bill English did not comment on whether the Government had offered a tax rebate of 30 per cent to Warner Brothers when asked about the issue by the Herald this morning.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10682085
Wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more, say no more...
I don't get it.... everyone's calling for change - for release from the grip of the oligarchy - and then when some group actually stands up to petition for such change locally, the same folks calling for it are somehow dismayed?
As I read it, this is an issue regarding outside/global entities testing NZ to determine whether it is or isn't a third world society/economy.
"MEAA's representative, Simon Whipp, admitted in a recent interview with the Hollywood Reporter, that it was his intention to use The Hobbit as a way to 'unionise other productions' in the New Zealand film industry - presumably whether we want it or not."...herald
Who is this prick?
Will work for food?
what do hobbits eat...anonentity...?
They nibble " Gollum's Crunchy Lo-Fat Nuts "
Good to see you survived the storm GBH and are once again in good fooling....look out for Walter ...he's in a right mood tday......I'm picking he may turn his P.C. into an art object before sunset.
Yeah Christov - that would be great, so I can upgrade my old blacksmith skill.
Hey come on Walter I didn't make the crack about a return to the dark ages.....even I think I spend toooooo much time here helping Bernardo become successful.
..... and I thought that you were here to help us " double-dip deniers " needle the silly sod ( Chicken-Little Hickey ) , from being such a gloomy guss all the time .............
and "THAT" GBH is what he wants from you........That is what fuels the reaction from the sycophants .....malingerers......rose leafers....etc.
but....yes ...I do enjoy a good prod at the veil of authenticity that surrounds this site as a source of learned thinkers........you need to be careful about underestimating his capitalist tendencies while ...you...are making him that little bit more successful.
.......... oh ............ I really am a thicko , aren't I !
Should've twigged to the Hickster's scheme ........... he's the " fox " , not Chicken-Little , at all ........... oh the shame of it all . Orf to the beach to end it all ..... farewell friends , one and all ........... Cherry , one last Tanduay before I go , salamat sweetie ............. palaam
Don’t worry Christov – the force of cyclones can do a lot of damage.
Hey Gummy...........I'm gonna take a month off here and git me some sun.(if available)....fish( if my right to has not been revoked) ..and concentrate on the music a bit more............
I had to go see a shrink about my writers block....it was really getting me down......I feel a lot
better now though..... He informed me I didn't have writers block
................................................he said I didn't have any talent......have a great day at the beach.
Bugger ! It's raining again . ...... Have to drown me Gummy arse tomorrow ....... Don't wanna catch a flu , out there .
And there I was thinking that a " writer's block " was a piece of wood , something to rest the quills on !
Bag limit in NZ is 3000 minke whales per season , and as many dolphins as the Kunster's Kaikoura cannery can can inna day .
Have fun !
Cheers GBH see you in a month....stay well n give em hell..!
Have you ever seen a hobbit take a dump? well i guess they are like the elves,and live of fresh air like most of the population nowadays.
Yup : The Hobbits are aboot to be dumped out of NZ courtesy of Actors Equity .......... Nice one , comrades ! Robyn Malcolm needs to stick to acting , and shut the feck up , on anything else .
As seen on the BBC , civil serpents on the streets of London handing out protest fliers to passers-by . " Save our jobs " they plead , " it ain't right what they're doing to us " .....very few of the pedestrians bothered to take a flier . You could see the distain in their eyes , " get a real job , you parasitic leeches " .......
....... Maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaate , you gotta laugh at the " Chris Carter " style of arrogance those on the government teat get , their sense of entitlement ............ to someone else's munny !
John Key: Do not waste another, this, opportunity. Get on with your 'rebalancing', now, whilst the world is in social turmoil. We may get a bit too ~ teachers etc. But much better that we stand with the rest of the reforming nations, and do it in association, rather than subsequently try it in isolation.
NA, it's all a matter of what you apply the reform to - and I would suggest it should not be at the expense of the majority of the average/working class population, and I include teachers and students in that category. It is in these average/working class professions that we should be aiming to lift wages/salaries to that of our leading trading partner, Australia.
That is not to say there are not many deserved recipients of reduced central government spending. As I've posted before - start with the jobs-for-boys (i.e. political elite) class which sits in our multitude of quangos;
http://www.nzcpr.com/Weekly203.pdf
Just look at the list of them at the end of the article - and ask yourself - what difference do these political appointments to quango boards make to your life - and compare their contribution to teachers.
Kate, the average/working class are going to suffer whether you or I like it ,or not. They always have; and they will this time as well. All I do is accept that as fait accompli and say " get it out of the way". You will no doubt say " Well let's do something about changing their lot, this time". That's for another time, a better time, when we don't repeat the wealth destruction processes that we have engaged in over the last 30 years.
The collective "We" have not engaged in wealth destruction of the average/middle classes - that's one of the ideologies/myths of globalisation - that "no one" is responsible, that the collective "we" bought into it.
Although I've posted it before - here it is again;
http://mams.rmit.edu.au/es4cefpg6ifj1.pdf
My point is, "We" just need to understand it, to oppose it.
I bought into it ,Kate. I'd venture even you did, until you recognised it for what it was. So 'we' are all reponsible. Perhaps the UK is finally doing something about changing the system. Who knows! But at least they are giving themselves a chance.
Absolutely I did. I recall a time in government when a large overseas multi-national wanted to trade the set up of a manufacturing plant here for certain "nation state" (read: taxpayer) concessions - and my thought was we should do-the-deal in the name of job creation.
We did not and the facility was built in Australia.
I suspect, that's exactly what the present Hobbit issue is all about - Warner Bros (an oligarch) sees an opportunity to move production elsewhere - to a more concession-friendly "nation state" - and used the "side issue" of trans-Tasman pay equity as the "scapegoat" or legitimisation for their intentions.
The underlying reason for their potential move is all about overall production cost efficiencies, driven by political stand-over tactics, not about local labour relations - although of course using labour relations as a legitimisation is a real win-win for them.
the finance sector needs to be rebalanced - that's the first thing. their job is to correctly allocate capital and assess risk and they have failed at that to the detriment of most people.
we should have realised that when we elected "one of them:" we were ruling out meaningful change
John Key...you have been compromised.....you may now lie and pander your way to a second term.....
Congratulations ..! welcome to the club....(hearty guffaw)
No compromise for the teachers that is one group they want to bash. The media are so in tune on that one as well. Personally think they are under paid for the job they do, mid range professional can earn a multiple of the teachers top base salary..as I do.
Can't blame them trying to stay somewhat current in real terms, accept current deal and they take a substantial hair cut...Government no money...well under the SCF payout... Govt. paying out more than they had to under Goverment Guarantee...find the money when they want to :-)
Well said Speckles....
Has it become all about the adults in NZ also?
Hi Christov - in which direction do you see the NZD/USD heading?
Hi Wellington............that is a super sticky one because of interference Yuan/USD through to Yen / AUD..NZD...etc...I'm sure the BOJ will pull another stunt this side of Christmas...the Fed will keep.."threatening" QE.....China may just slap a niner on right smack on the Xmas cheer.
So all things being...completely unequal...I would be taking a ..WILD ..guess at best.
For what it's worth I don't think the Americans want the AUD to stay over par for any length of time and so the KIWI should be viewed as the dag hanging at the relative (thereabouts )fall off.
One point of interest is the Yen has suffered the most in strengthening and so will react the most violently to counter...
I know I'm giving you nothing...but would not like to see you lose your shirt on my account.
Try Ostrich when he pops on....good thinker.
Currency..relatively strong until the next set of main stats for NZ come out then another dip, Canterbury effect, soutland lamb losses & general weakness will be large than the economists expect. caveat..unless the market is shorted in a big way by any one of a number of players...
Allied Farmers has rocketed 40 % this morning !
Why bother with houses , when the NZX can enrich you so handsomely , so very quickly . Go ALF , you furry little fecker , rocket up and outta here .
2.2 cents , huh . And they were 1.6 cents yesterday ........... And back in March they were ................ what ? ! ? ! ?
FYI GBH, story here on the first Allied Nationwide Finance receiver's report - http://www.interest.co.nz/news/no-estimate-likely-returns-allied-nation…
Interesting Air NZ story from Bloomberg.
Air NZ apparently "a focus" of a US Justice Department investigation into alleged price fixing by air cargo companies, according to Justice Department papers filed in federal court in Brooklyn, New York.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aw38HdQM4.yM
Air NZ apparently "a focus" of a US Justice Department investigation into alleged price fixing
Oh dear, a price fixing cartel. that US justice dept. sure are on to it.
The biggest price fixing ring - OPEC- have been manipulating the oil price for decades but everyone just turns a blind eye. Now why would that be?
"The highest increases were Ministry of Education chief executive Karen Sewell (up from $480,000-$489,999 to $500,000-$509,999)"herald..........ahaaaaaaaaaaahahaha....and what did Tolley have to say about money and teacher pay.......shove it in your ear Tolley.
"New Zealand's economic recovery may be slow, but is unlikely to fall back into recession despite uncertainties in the global economy and the impact of the Canterbury earthquake, ASB said." herald.........................
Yeah sure.
Justice Bill Wilson , who resigned today , is to be given a year's salary ( $ 410 000 ) , plus legal expenses and ancillary costs . A $ 900 000 package , according to Judith Collins ............. And we assumed that this sort of largesse , frivilous wastage of tax-payers' munnies would cease once Labour got biffed out in 2008 ......
Big Gummy Bear gggrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !
"A $ 900,000 package".
That may be nothing compared to what his superannuation payments will cost the country.
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