Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the oil price rose more than 2% overnight in the wake of coalition air strikes in Libya.
Libya's oil fields produce around 2% of global supply and are expected to be closed for some time, particularly if threatened retaliation by Muammar Gaddafi materialises.
He has vowed that western powers will not get their hands on Libyan oil regardless. See more here at BBC.
New Zealand's petrol price is approaching the record highs of July 2008 of around NZ$2.17/litre. The rising oil price and weaker New Zealand dollar are expected to push it up there in coming days. See our interactive chart on oil prices and petrol prices here and below.
Meanwhile, the World Bank has estimated the Japanese earthquake and Tsunami could cost up to US$250 billion or 4% of GDP to repair the damage to capital stocks.
However, it is only likely to cut Japanese GDP or output for the year by 0.5%, it said. See more here at BBC.
This compares with the cost of rebuilding Kobe after its 1995 earthquake of around US$100 billion.
The New Zealand dollar was mildly firmer at 73.4 USc in morning trade as global risk appetites returned. See more here from BNZ's Mike Jones.
Easing nuclear fears helped boost global stock markets, including the Dow, which rose 1.3% back over 12,000. See more here from Bloomberg.
Back in New Zealand, Auckland Airport has abandoned its plan to buy more than a third of Queenstown airport and will instead stick with just 25% after local opposition. See more here at NZX.
Fisher and Paykel Appliances has done a deal to sell motors, components and technology to its controlling shareholder Haier in China. See more here at NZX.
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60 Comments
Expect extreme volatility in markets this week , Stock markets because of Japan , Commodities markets because of the Middle east and Libya , Bond markets because of the rollover of debt in Greece and Portugal , Forex markets because of all of the above.
Its the best of times for opportunists and the worst of times for those unprepared for wahts coming
And what do you see as coming?
regards
If I knew exactly what was coming, I could end up very wealthy.
Personally, I have resorted to the safety cash in the bank, I have cashed in 75% of my equity portfoio , and sold all my Bond holdings.
Call me a pessimist , but my call is that we are going to go into a long and protracted downturn.
I see real assets that generate cash ( not paper assets) as the only safe haven right now.
Good for you Boatman...careful you don't get Bollarded by Bolly's OBR changes...bank shareholders and creditors will be the losers...that'll be your cash deposits going down the dunny......
On the positive side Boatman....we have.....errr....arrrrr....ummmmm...bugger!
Perhaps the authorities in Japan have decided the Japanese people are really too bloody dumb to know when they are being lied to.
The media nutters are reporting that the radiation contamination of the food is nowhere near as much as an xray at the hospital....and so quite safe to eat and drink....failing to point out that the radioactive shit ends up trapped inside the body..which amounts to an xray dose that is permanent.....
Ignorance is bliss as the pollies say.
Want some milk with that...bit of cheese....butter on your greens....hey...why are you running!
What about all the radioactive (and Tsunami flood damaged) used Japanese cars that are about to be exported to NZ. We're about to get our dose too...
But safer because they will glow at night Matt...expect the bureaucrats and pollies to introduce a radiation scan check on all imports...at thousands of dollars a pop....
Matt
…and the people. Considering the level/ extent of radiation there is a strong possibility the Japanese government will ask the international community for assistance and help evacuating their people. So, PM why not take as many as we are able to accommodate, as long as they are healthy, incl. 5000 trades people to help and rebuild Christchurch ?
Wolly - with due respect your out of your depth on this one
This issue is not best covered by soundbites
Our bodies always hold radioactive isotopes eg Potassium
Leave it to experts with a detailed knowledge of types of radiation dosage rates cumulative effects take up half lives etc etc
There has been a huge amount of misinfoation and downright scaremongering on this topic
The facts are that nuclear power is the safest and least polluting of all baseload options
Oh right JB...I'll leave it to the experts...any other commands oh great one?
The facts are that nuclear power is the safest and least polluting of all baseload options - just another lie from the "Lobby Brothers".
JB - that’s why the “Nuclear, Coal & Oil- BS Lobbyist” for decade’s efforts for renewable energy source are torpedoing.
The myth of base load power! Some people wish to discount renewable energy as useful generation contributing to our grid electricity supply.
http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/myth-of-baseload.html
Kunst,
the facts are that Transpower does not list wind as capacity available in the NZ system simply because it is not dispatchable.
In a modern society we need secure 24/365 dependable electricity supply.
Just last week with the Cook Straight cable down and no or little wind spot prices spiked to over $ 5000 Mwhr.
The problem with solar & wind is their intermittent nature and any swing capacity from hydro has long been taken or constrained with the RMA.
Yes wind and solar they have their place but by the time you invest in comparable dispatchable capacity - prices are basically double - so why would you do that.
Simple water heaters on the roof are a far more intelligent approach for home owners.
NZ certainly has geothermal options - but Australia for example does not so - their options for a non CO2 economy are only nuclear.
The French program with re-processing is the way to go.
Laughable watching the German's and Swiss shutting their own nukes then simply purchasing it off EDF across the border - nothing has changed except the EDF make more money and we are left with a much higher carbon liability under our crazy ETS.
"Simple water heaters on the roof are a far more intelligent approach for home owners."...and very rewarding for councils as they charge special fees and to govt which steals gst on top....!
Still a good option for those whith some DiY skills...avoid the taxes and the council theft and you will save more loot to boot.
JB - in a modern society we need secure 24/365 dependable electricity supply – yes, but only for stupid people – for people who think more and more and more – people who are ignorant, selfish and driven by consumerism. Our planet doesn’t work that way – mate.
I think it is quite important to talk about lobby groups, which are linked coming from different sectors, making undemocratic and often irresponsible decisions. Government representatives are often involved or behind legislating such decisions. As a result in many cases members of lobby groups financially and economically benefit over years, while the tax- payer takes the burden of the damages.
The accident in Japan at least have now some positive results in governments hopefully reversing the trend – not only shutting down NPP at risk – but looking into alternatives or even some more intelligent solutions.
Wind etc is variable....simple....so you have to try and design a system that can work with that, that costs....for NZ another problem to me is nuclear makes little sense from a natioanl security point of view, ie we would have to buy nuclear plant from another country, we lack the expertese, say the US....
To give us basload we do need geothermal and hydro, both are well understaood and simple technologies, tide might be useful as well...its intermediate but its very predictable....
The other thing for the future is we assume power is there in un-limited quantities 24/7 so we live as wel please....I suspect in the future we will be adjusting our lifestyles to suit the cost of power....so if say in Wellington they rely heavily on tide the daylight working hours will be matched to the tide....
regards
JB- with that comment, I suspect I know who you are.
And your comment doesn't include disposal - which is my biggest concern.
That's a debt-to-future-generations issue. ie Fraud.
What these sorts of arguments also allow is the proliferation of poor design. Instead of designing systems, and a house is a system, that consumes less we can just keep wasting resources on building things that will one day have to be scrapped.
Embodied energy.
And from what I understand PV doesn't actually qualify because they use rare metals.
There is no reason for a dwelling north of cook straight to be using electricity for heating, cooling or hot water.
My prediction is that a lot of industrial estates that are now emptying as the economy declines, will eventually be demolished. Even under a scenario where industry gears up again, which I am doubtful of, the price of energy will be so high that those inefficient buildings will be too expensive to run.
All those idiot PI spruikers will be left with buildings that are untennantable.
Scarfie - right in all respects.
But I think of PV as 'stored fossil fuel' - which won't go off for a long time.....
Solar gain is the way to go, and simple is best - I'd be looking at solar/boiler/turbine if I was in the supply game. All old, well-established, low-tech stuff.
Meantime is we stopped immigration and went for efficiencies, we've got a lot of slack to take up.
I thinke we peaked at under 100 watts last night. 3 people in the house, and no need for energy-discipline.
It can be done.... :)
Its only least polluting when you spend a small fortune protecting the environment from it for thousands of years, hence the US is under yukon mountain? etc trying to figure out how to keep the waste genie in the bottle for thousands of years...
What yoy are really saying is pass the problem on to our future generations.....
Safest, uh I think we can see just how safe Japan is right now....
regards
Least polluting how? Are the spent fuel rods biodegradeable? What about the mining operations required to collect the uranium? It may be the least atmospheric polluting but that does not negate the overall pollution of the environment that nuclear power causes.
Just a couple of fillers to toss out there:
Stuxnet was idenitfied in Japan in October last year (just sayin'...); and,
the Japanese nuclear power station reportedly had 20 years of spent fuel stored above the reactors. (Oh, and there's another NPS 100km to the north experiencing elevated radiation levels currently)
Yes I noticed that and wondered ie why was there so much or indeed any spent fuel on site. So I assume they have no where to put it so have um just "piled it up" on site.....strikes me that there are a few dirty little secrets in the background.....
regards
Normal behaviour unfortunately Steven. One of our own dirty little secrets is the Aluminium Smelter.
The toxic products, which are fluoride based, are trucked down the coast a little way and buried in sealed pits. This is on land the smelter owns, and is only a stones throw from a stunning beach and Feauveau Straight.
I have heard Aluminium called "solid electricity" as the smelting of it gobbles it at such an astronomical rate.
@ JB
...nuclear power is the safest and least polluting......
You can't be serious!
Trouble stalks America: biggest clean up
http://www.economist.com/node/18396103
Dave Kimble, Australia
Does nuclear energy produce no CO2?
http://www.peakoil.org.au/news/does_nuclear_energy_produce_no_co2.htm
Chernobyl needs new radiation shield:European countries urged to chip in
http://www.greenfudge.org/2011/02/28/chernobyl-needs-new-radiation-shie…
Wildlife in Europe - a quarter of a century after Chernobyl radioactive Boar on the rise
in Germany
http://www.spiegel.de/international/zeitgeist/0,518,709345,00.html
Bernard: Any chance of getting videos in HTML5 webm? flash is a huge tangled mess of code with constant security issues, just for wrapping video it is kinda silly (youtube has html5 now http://www.youtube.com/html5). Thanks.
Bernard
Here is a good summary of the Japan Energy impact http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7697
Things to look forward to, shortages of refined product, pressure on the LNG market won't affect us directly
Neven
Might be as well my deisel 4wd is off the road for the winter....
regards
and Bernard ...here is a red flag screaming watch this space for a collective consciousness on stomping currency speculation at the fat end.......http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-israel-acts-to-quash-forex-speculation-2011-01-19
That's an interesting read big C....is it possible the Kiwi$ rate could be better managed by the RBNZ regulating....the flow of speculative plays...and the govt taxing the capital gains (hello John)...while holding a more realistic ocr level to encourage savings and throttle the property bubble...oops sorry that's not a goal is it!
Nope...fat chance with an election coming up...gotta go with cheaper credit to pork the confidence....must not restrict the trader's right to play games with the Kiwi$...right John!
nice spot Wally...hard to do ..for the RBNZ when you are proactive and under direction.
after all it's what John Boys specialty is.......I'm sure believing at the mo he is in the ultimate game ......but now thanks to gasoline....he will be left uttering "well that didn't go as well as expected".....either way now we are damned.
Wolly,
while holding a more realistic ocr level to encourage savings and throttle the property bubble
What level should the OCR be at?
What is a fair rate of interest for savings in your eyes? GIve us rate for oncall savings and say 12 month TD.
Been watching your blogs but can't recall you placing a number on this?
It ought to be high enough to return a nett gain for savers, above the tax theft and the destruction of the dollar...now 12.6% and rising since the start of 07.
Sadly Bollard has got himself in a hole where he sees porking the market for a confidence lift as more important than encouraging savings.
He is about to read that the ECB has started to raise the rate on the euro....leaving him well behind the wave of inflation caused by that idiot at the Fed....Bet the BoE beats him to it as well.
Whats this destruction of the $$$ you keep banging on about?? Inflation or TWI?
Are you saying 07 was the highest point of NZD on a TWI basis?
Whats this tax theft you keep banging on about?
How much net gain for savers 1% 2% or 7% like some other blogger?
I win $1 million on Lotto, stick in the bank and have tax free income whereas my mate on the minimum wage with no kids struggles on $14 per hour working 50 hours per week?
I think I have menioned this before and you didn't answer why should income from saving be any different to other income.
Does anyone out there have the numbers on how much the govt spends on consultancy fees every year and to whom they are paid and whether the 'work' done is ever measured to establish what the value might be.......anyone......
Jesus calm down Wally, we can't go doing something like that least someone be held accountable. That might actually lead to savings in governance being made and you know we can't do that until after the election.
.
Wally start here and work your way through the links ...it will all be there but you will have to look for it................http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/financialstatements/yearend/jun10/14.htm
I see the Syrian peasants are revolting...little do they know what their govt has planned for them....and since they have no oil to speak of...don't expect the UN to waste time! debating on a no fly zone over Syria....
How disappointing. Over the past 10 days there have been many posts on the subject of the Sendai disasters. More than 90% have been about the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor. Very few about the quake or the tsunami or the human tragedy. Most were by self-identified off-shore late-arrivals, most of which expressed opinions of advice and acceptance, opinions that conflict with our history.
How quickly we forget. Or is it many of the posters (and columnists) here are late-arrivals who don't do us the courtesy of learning our history.
This is New Zealand, This is Aotearoa, This is the Land of the Long White Cloud. New Zealand is NOT the Land of the Long White Shroud. New Zealand is NOT the Land of the Mushroom Cloud. New Zealand is a Nuclear Free Zone. New Zealand fought the Good Fight for the privilege that you now enjoy. Courtesy of David Lange we stood up to France who were raining Strontium-90 all over our fair land. Australia and the United States of America turned their backs on us and who by their silence condoned France. New Zealand was thrown out of ANZUS. New Zealand became the pariah
If you choose to make this country your home you have an obligation to accept that baton and carry on our legacy. Dont disappoint. Should you choose not to accept this legacy there is a warm welcome for you at Hotel Mururoa where you can gather pebble of yellowcake on your morning walk along the beach.
All good stuff icono...just make sure you don't settle in south of the Ohio valley tip site in wgtn where they buried the radioactive remains from the nuclear accident at Victoria University way back when !
Huh..? ..............................what the...? carry the what...?musta missed a post I guess.....geeees.
WHY CAN'T WE GET A COALITION TO RESTORE DEMOCRACY IN CHRISTCHURCH??
What are you going on about CJ?
DOES NO ONE OUTSIDE CHRISTCHURCH REALISE WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS DOING?
John Hamilton and Civil Defence have taken away all property rights, essentially confiscating the CBD.
They won't give owners a say in what happens to their buildings or possessions, even if they are salvagable or repairable, they are destroying and dumping peoples property either without their consent or by being bullied into giving it.
It's so bad that on one of our properties they told me that my brother (who's name is on the title) had consented to demolition. I spoke with him immediately and he had done no such thing. These bureaucrats are liars making up stories just tying to push their ill-conceived agenda through. They believe by flattening the city, insurance payouts will be quicker hence so to the rebuild - I have heard this garbage from several high ranking officials and it is just bollocks.
They don't realise: demolish everything and no one will rebuild.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN NZ AND NO ONE IS GETTING IT OUTSIDE CHCH.
We would have more freedom in CHINA.
ACTION IS NEEDED NOW.
GET RID OF THE STATE OF EMERGENCY AND RETURN RIGHTS TO INDIVIDUALS.
It's not an emergency any more, it's a recovery and BULLYs shouldn't be using laws designed for coping with urgent immediate dangers (intended for during an event) to push their own agendas forward.
IT IS A DISGRACE AND A SHAMBLES AND WHY THE HELL IS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY SITTING ROUND ACCEPTING IT?
Oh you mean THAT Democracy...doesn't it come with govt being able to declare emergency powers to do what it wants....and councils with powers to steal property for roads and easements....and power companies with rights to do what they want...etc etc....Welcome to your new understanding of the NZ Democracy CJ......
Psssssst....wanna buy some good second hand timber...maybe some bricks and stone for the garden....how about some steel RSJs.....
Wally, how about some slightly scuffed shoes, some scratched bicycles and the odd slightly dusty laptop.
Demo crews are stealing peoples lives legally and generally without the legal owners' consent - what the hell is going on?
Dangerous buildings line streets outside the red zone, take a look at Stanmore Road, Linwood Ave etc etc. Based on Hamilton's logic they are all ready to kill yet nothing is being done about it, while similar buildings are being flattened without the owners having a say or able to arrange their own contractors to salvage their assets.
It's undemocratic and victimising victims. Key and Brownlee then try and use safety concerns as a legitimate reason to occupy the CBD - sounds much like someone who found legitimate reasons to occupy the Sedetenland!
You mean Sudetenland........big canons you are shooting there, I guess not many here will understand.
Excuse my spelling, but not my intent.
It seems our Government does not understand either, I've been petitioning everyone and they all just don't get it.
Christchurch is gone and at this rate, it's population will go too.
Doing the wrong thing IS NOT better than doing nothing. NZ is stuffed, we are on the tipping point of entering a decades long depression if they get the ChCh recovery wrong (which they are).
IF CHRISTCHURCH HAS NO FUTURE NEITHER DOES NEW ZEALAND.
But the demolition mob will do alright CJ.....Chch is like one big corporate collapse...the receivers and the lawyers get to pick over the bones while the shareholders watch on as their investments are stolen in the name of the law.....in this case it's the demo mob.
Interesting how civil defence can show so much concern for the safety of so many after the quake...after the facades have fallen on people....
Prior to Feb 22, all EQC was interested in doing was convincing owners, who thought their buildings were damaged and dangerous, that they were indeed safe. How many were killed or nearly killed because of uneducated EQC men (former Aussie cops) were telling them their stacks of bricks were safe. When the truth comes out there will be hell to pay for EQC and the Government.
At last, but it should not have to come to this, or the sorry scenes we saw yesterday. Somewhere along the way leadership and management has been ineffective:
Christchurch protesters meeting with Civil Defence http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10714209I hope those people suffering can get some long overdue resolution to their problems.
Why has it panned out this way?
How could it have been different and better?
Les.
"When the truth comes out"...Ha....are you kidding....mountains of dosh will be piled over the top of the truth CJ.....expect to see it emerge about 50 years from now.
I totally agree - what is this the second or third extension of the state of emergency?
I can understand restricted access to the CBD but access on an as required basis by building owners and tenants must happen and now. The owners and tenants should simply be able to register in and out and civil defence or Army escourts should be available in numbers to accompany these people in recovering their possessions. Entry to the area can be at an own-risk basis - scuba training organisations have such legal instruments and use them all the time. The current situation is more than unhelpful - it's absolutely obstructive. Commercial buildings are not covered by EQC - this should be a matter between owners and their private insurers/contractors - overseen/coordinated by civil defence.
This situation bodes very poorly for positive relationships and collaborative progress going forward.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/83939…
Thorium as an alternative....looks like the vested interests will screw us over again while China sidesteps and moves forward....
regards
Not sure what you mean by the comment "screwed over by vested interests" Steven but it is not just China that is going this way India has also set up a Thorium development program.
If you are interested here is a video worth watching ( don't be put off by the name of the
website it is on !!)
http://www.globalwarmingskeptics.info/forums/thread-1145-post-8160.html#pid8160
There is alot of comments on the danger of nuclear plants on here today but did you realise the earthquake/tsunami destroyed a hydro dam in the Fukushima area destroying 1800 homes , not sure of the related direct death toll yet. Ignore the stupid headline
seems we got a mention.....
- privatization in New Zealand
"I'm a New Zealander who has lived abroad for many years. Coming back to NZ after a long while I can honestly say that yes, NZers are stupid. They have stupidly believed all the crap their corrupt politicians have dealt them over successive years and done nothing about it."
"The rising oil price and weaker New Zealand dollar are expected to push it up there in coming days"
Of course, it would be crazy to repare NZ against this kind of thing thru higher rego on bigger vehicles, more tax on petrol etc - thus improving our tax take & also encouraging people to drive more economical vehicles etc, & insulating us against the expected supply & pricing shocks.
May in a thoughtful, mature & proactive country. Not good ole' Noozilind of course.
As Bill English confirmed the other day: "English said the government would "probably not" support an official inquiry into how New Zealand could best protect its economy from ongoing high oil prices".
Can't expect too much visionary to come out of Dipton, I suppose.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/4763712/High-cost-of-oil-dependen…
Cheers to all.
"Baaaaaaaa '
Japan hit by another earthquake. M6.6 near the east coast of Honshu.
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