National rises in latest poll

Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% - highest since October 2011

25th May 15, 8:45pm by Guest

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

During May support for the National Government was up 8.5% to 54% as positive news on the NZ Budget was progressively released.

The National-led Government has a large lead over a Labour/Greens alliance with their support at 42% (down 7.5%), according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll.

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that National would win easily and be able to govern in their own right.

Support for the Maori Party (National partners) dropped to 1% (down 0.5%) while support is unchanged for both Act NZ 1% and United Future 0%.

Support has decreased for all three Parliamentary Opposition parties: Labour’s support is now at 25.5% (down 2%), Greens 10.5% (down 3%) and NZ First 6% (down 2.5%). For the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) while the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (down 0.5%).

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen to 136.5pts (up 1.5pts). There are now 63% (up 1%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 26.5% (down 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is substantially higher than in Australia.

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66 Comments

by xelnaga | 25th May 15, 11:32pm 1432553548

I wonder if there is any correlation to the amount of wealthy immigrants to which they have sold residency.

by PattyZ | 26th May 15, 9:51am 1432590693

Seems like most commentators here are of the 26.5% and think they should carry a 99% weight (1% being the black-eyed aliens that should leave this country alone).

by Stephen Hulme | 26th May 15, 11:57am 1432598241

The same 26.5% who are concerned - Today’s trade figures were in line with market expectations, with the annual trade deficit growing to $2,624m, the widest in six years. Looking forward, we expect the annual trade deficit to continue widening, with the main culprits being the domestic-centricity of the expansion, weakness in commodity exports, and the high NZD TWI, which remains a headwind to the broader export sector. A lower OCR would help take pressure off the NZD. Courtesy of ANZ in my mail box.

I guess that includes those that gifted Winston a constituency.

And of course a lower OCR would further exacerbate the national pastime of chronic indebtedness while those currently in command of a kitchen ATM splash out on unfunded imports.

by Craig | 26th May 15, 12:31pm 1432600278

Actually Patty, I consider myself as part of the 46% that don't want national,. There isn't much alternative yet though.

by gordon | 26th May 15, 12:41pm 1432600887

There is no alternative Craig. National is the best of a bad bunch. Just imagine if Cunliffe, KD and the Greens had won.
Would the last one leaving the country please turn the lights off.

by Stephen Hulme | 26th May 15, 1:13pm 1432602794

Do you firmly believe the Tory Abbott Government's future proofing plans constitute a TINA political horizon?

Australia is betting on plumbers and coffee-shop owners over scientists and researchers to drive the nation’s next wave of economic growth.

The country that brought you refrigerators, black-box flight recorders, bionic ears and Wi-Fi will cut its research budget by 7 percent over the next 12 months, and another 10 percent in the following three years. At the same time it’s offering tax cuts and write-offs in its budget this month for small firms to buy equipment like espresso machines and lawnmowers as the centerpiece of a plan to build a “stronger and more prosperous Australia.”

The government is reducing spending in the face of budget shortfalls after a 30 percent fall in commodity prices in 12 months and as its mining investment boom ends. The boost for small businesses in the latest budget lifted consumer confidence to its highest in 16 months and boosted shares of retailers like Harvey Norman Holdings Ltd. and JB Hi-Fi Ltd. Read more

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 3:09pm 1432609750

Well at least this budget did not have us reaching for the anti- diarrhea tablets , which was not the case in some previous budgets over the years , some of which were absolute shockers

by sharetrader | 25th May 15, 11:44pm 1432554258

I suspect most immigrants vote for the incumbent government. this looks very much so in Auckland where you can see labour areas slowly turning blue. in saying that I would also suspect once they turn against they would act like a herd and support would swing in a major way.

by steven | 26th May 15, 12:36pm 1432600569

Inner city apartments spring up and the young professionals who rent them bias these areas away from the left. FHB? of a simialr demographic? are going to be swing voters I suggest.

"swing in a major way" indeed if you look at at graph of labour and National support going back decades both have declined equally and significantly. This makes sense / is expected as the new younger ppl are not blindly wedded to the party of their parents / social strata but will vote for what best suits them.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 10:02am 1432591378

Why am I not surprised ?

John Key and Bill English have done wonders for our economy in both a domestic and global context.

Like sound management in a business which sees its share price increase , the same seems to happen with a country's currency .

The strength of our NZ$ is likely a reflection of fiscal discipline and good management

Employment levels are basically as high as they will ever be , we are growing our GDP , our taxes are down , people are spending, and generally people are positive with businesses planning expansion .

Unlike other OECD or even Commonwealth countries , which are struggling with any or all of these ills :- Horrendous debt , low growth , high unemployment , skewed wealth distribution , and in some cases Deflation , negative population growth to name just a few

by Anarkist | 26th May 15, 12:24pm 1432599849

Truly Boatman, please tell me which new fiscal or economic policies, National have enacted since they came to power, that may have improved the economic circumstances of this country? I reckon the best that can be said about this government, is that they have been more pragmatic than previous neoliberal governments. They didn't cut welfare benefits, rather they raised them, they didn't dismantle Working for Families, instead they've increased it for poorer families, despite their original opposition, they haven't repealed the interest free Student loans, just imposed stricter conditions of entitlement, they haven't scrapped Kiwisaver and have only just decided to stop the the initial $1000 inducement that Labour had provided..

In my view National's regime is better defined by what they HAVEN'T done moreso, than by what they HAVE done.

by steven | 26th May 15, 12:38pm 1432600697

agree, but not making any major economic cockups like the mantra of austerity is a pretty big deal considering how bad it could have been.

by Stephen Hulme | 26th May 15, 12:59pm 1432601979

Be patient. The blunder of overseeing many years of residential and farming land price gains brought forward within such a short time frame has yet to unravel. Or are you optimistic the majority are in for a income/pay rise revolution that will undo the CPI related deflation spiral?

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 1:37pm 1432604270

Okay , I was expecting this sort of reaction from the chattering class , but to be fair , on any measure we have done and are doing better than our peers .

Maybe John Key is lucky enough to have been at the right place at the right time , notwithstanding the GFC , TWO devastating earthquakes , a serious mine disaster , and other unpleasant events that have befallen us ( such as 12 Finance Co collapses)

Maybe history will prove me wrong , but for now I would not want anyone else holding the Captaincy of the good ship New Zealand .

Maybe you folk would like a bunch of people in power that are overly keen on taxing and spending other peoples money until it runs out , but I don't like that idea .

by Stephen Hulme | 26th May 15, 1:54pm 1432605282

I was expecting this sort of reaction from the chattering class

So, what class cohort do you think you hail from? LOL

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 1:51pm 1432605114

Precisely , you have answered your own question ............ the fact that all these welfare and nice-to-have cradle to grave, nanny-state hand-outs and transfer payments have been retained by the Nats AND we have still come out of the GFC okay says it all .

They have done a lot actually , getting rid of Helen Clarkes anti-business culture , for starters .

Then encouraging Warner Bros to actually stay and make films here

The getting a convention centre agreement without tax-payers having to put their hands in their pockets

Seeing the commercial sense in keeping Tiwhai point going rather than having the plant close and everyone in the entire community on the benefit.

Stimulating infrastructure spending at the start of the GFC , roads tunnels , bridges , etc so that people kept working .

by Stephen Hulme | 26th May 15, 2:00pm 1432605621

Two of which were consummated with taxpayer funded bribes and most of the rest with a $48 billion increase in government debt.

by fat pat | 26th May 15, 10:48pm 1432637280

lol boatman, that's too much.

Warner Brothers - The deal with Warner involved $95m of subsidies and grants, including offsetting $12m of the company's marketing costs. The DVD of the films will include a trailer promoting NZ....wow how many schools can we build with that?

Convention centre - Sky is holding us to ransom. As in, pay up tax payer or we'll build the most fugly convention centre imaginable.

Tiwai point - 30 Million in corporate welfare for Rio Tinto. It would have made more sense just to give the employees cash. At least they would have spent it into the community. Rio is selling the smelter now anyway. What a profligate waste of money.

Stimulating infrastructure - are you talking about JK's bike track?

by sharetrader | 27th May 15, 12:36am 1432643809

taking credit for electrifying the Auckland rail, which was the previous govt and which they yelled the house down as a waste of money when in opposition.

by rastus1 | 26th May 15, 10:08am 1432591727

......Captain Little's boat is parked next to Captain Keys, both are sinking, but Captain Littles has a bigger hole, so Captain Key thinks his boat is just fine.........

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 1:38pm 1432604315

Rastus , firstly nothing is sinking , and secondly my boat is insured

by rastus1 | 26th May 15, 1:44pm 1432604660

..and my name is Edward John Smith :)

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 11:39am 1432597171

Articles like this are important to remind us that over half of this country have centre-right views/beliefs. Anyone reading interest.co.nz threads would think that this country is 90% far left radicals.

It begs an interesting question; why are some many commentators left liberals? Is it because most don't work so have the time... Or that they are in cushy, overpaid government jobs and are vested interests who want the rort of the tax payers to continue...

Some of Nationals support might come from centre-left voters who can't bring themselves to vote for the rabble that is the left wing of NZ politics. Seriously, who is the opposition party leader? Angry Andrew, Winston, Turie... The thought of this lot trying to work together is laughable.

by PattyZ | 26th May 15, 11:48am 1432597727

Curious how a site focusing on finance attracts so many from the (far) left, who despite knowing close to nothing about finance, hate its gut (and anyone involved in it).

by steven | 26th May 15, 12:01pm 1432598468

a) I hardly ever see anyone from the far left. Patrica springs to mind but that is about it. b) economics and fince are not the same thing btw. c) from reading the right wingers posts in here its pretty obvious that many are equally clueless about economics but certainly vocal about what they "know". Now sure there are quite a few ppl who really understand finance but finance isnt the bigger picture.

by PattyZ | 26th May 15, 1:01pm 1432602114

It's just based on my observation here, not necessarily that rights are any better. However, I reckon maybe rights are relatively better off financially and hence have more exposure to various aspects of finance.

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 2:38pm 1432607884

Or the ability to post without censoring. Or the ability to rant directly to the audience they dislike (wealthy and property investors). Or as I mentioned above, most working people have little or no time for commentary.

I've seen this absurd claim before that somehow liberals have the full and complete backing of the academic community, more than a little delusionary.

by steven | 26th May 15, 11:57am 1432598248

No that is an unsupportable view. Based on the last election some % (about 35%) hold strong left views, some % in the middle are swing voters and then there is a unknown % presumably similar at 33% that hold right wing views.

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 2:42pm 1432608121

No, have you read the article, 54% of people polled support the right wing National party and that doesn't include ACT, etc.

Even taking your numbers still shows a disproportional level of commentary, there are certainly not an even number of liberal and neo-liberal commentators.

by xelnaga | 26th May 15, 12:15pm 1432599303

Is "Angry Andrew" the new soundbite to parrot these days?

by Craig | 26th May 15, 12:34pm 1432600479

Seems that way. I guess the ponytail pm of parnell is too long for some.

by Brendon | 26th May 15, 2:02pm 1432605760

The Prime Minister of Parnell is short and to the point.

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 2:43pm 1432608204

It would appear there are a few sound bites and a few parrots.

by Rustee1970 | 26th May 15, 12:10pm 1432599004

I actually agree to some degree with PattyZ's comments above....although I also think ALL NZer's should keep up to date with matters covered off in sites such as Interest.co. Although perhaps ignorance may be bliss for some? I get particularly annoyed with comments of how "This government" (and I am speaking very much in general here as it doesn't seem to matter who is in power - people still complain) is stuffing things up when realistically any financial and economic impacts are more often a legacy of decisions/action and inaction from many, many years past (through successive and varied governments) - not forgetting of course the "world economy" impacts too. The fact that we are not in the same boat as the US and many European Countries (Greece comes to mind) seems to indicate that whilst our NZ Governments are perhaps never "stella" performers, they have historically been relatively "prudent" with our economy.

by steven | 26th May 15, 12:26pm 1432599983

yep, often the "pot calling kettle black" ie there is no real difference between Labour and National, both have an unswerving belief we can grow exponentially on a finite planet for ever.

by sharetrader | 26th May 15, 2:37pm 1432607823

correct have a look at some of the voting in parilment and you will find they both vote for the same things , except if it is something that is about their core principals.
then you have to ask the question, if both parties are voting in the same way who has the real power, i would suggest it is governement civil servants
remind anyone of yes minister

by gordon | 26th May 15, 12:17pm 1432599477

It is interesting to note just how little there is if anything at all in MSM on this poll. If the left had jumped at National's expense it would be all over the front page. This again shows just how left leaning the MSM are. And how out of touch they are with reality and the average New Zealander. People want a help up not hand outs and the MSM and the left have not grasped that. Will they ever?

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 2:46pm 1432608365

Very true, in Auckland we have to endure the Herald who in my opinion has become so blatantly left leaning that they are not worth reading.

by steven | 26th May 15, 3:01pm 1432609267

Really maybe you should try say whaleoil, way more "balanced" for you.

Meanwhile I have the mis-fortune to get an ear bashing from some "lefties" who say its way right wing, so maybe you should should do a JK and accept its just "entertainment".

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 4:01pm 1432612878

When have I ever praised WhaleOil? Or insinuated that it is balanced? You're using strawman arguments again.

I will say that in my opinion WhaleOil is about as far to the right as NZ Herald is to the left.

by rastus1 | 26th May 15, 3:06pm 1432609611

...really? Well now that Murdoch has bought in, expect some of the high qulity right wing extremist stuff as per Fox.

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 4:04pm 1432613080

Hope springs eternal.

by don'tgetmegoing | 26th May 15, 4:37pm 1432615068

Or rather, god help us

by two otherguys | 26th May 15, 1:54pm 1432605290

Mother Hubbard's Cupboard is bare

One view is the Nats are running a bare-bones policy of making sure that if and when they hand over the baton there will be no cash-pile or pot'o'gold to spend - 9 years of deficits

After 7 years of plenty, after 7 years of bloated dairy prices, the cupboard is bare, and WILL still be bare come 2017

Where did all the money go?

Old Mother Hubbard
Went to the cupboard
To give the poor a bone
When she got there
The cupboard was bare

Labour won't inherit a huge pile'o'plenty just a pile of debt

They won't want the baton - it's a poisoned chalice

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 1:55pm 1432605326

Wrong , twootherguys they could have run a surplus at the start of the GFC but such austerity would have been disasterous for us all .

Instead they increased spending , and saved our arses

by gordon | 26th May 15, 2:05pm 1432605918

Labour will not inherit anything as they will never get into power again until they get rid of all their dead wood like Goff, King and Mallard, break all ties with the dinosaur called "unionism" and get one or two people who the average New Zealander could relate to and make them leaders. There will always be some bludgers who will never get off the dole but who would want their lives. The majority of New Zealanders want a hand up not a hand out. Labour just do not get it just like the Greens. They will always be the brides maid until they make some huge changes. Of course they will not make those changes as they just do not have courage to make them. In the meantime they will keep their noses in the troughs and earn their super and travelling privileges they all deserve for all their hard work for us poor peasants.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 2:46pm 1432608400

Thank you GORDON , my sentiments precisely encapsulated in a single paragraph .....I could not have said it better myself .

Its hard to believe I once support Helen Clarke ......... what was I thinking ?

We are all tired of the lefts ordure , constant sniping and childish behaviour , and total lack of any constructive contribution to the country

Even Whathisname the new leader has failed to be anything other than a disappointment

by steven | 26th May 15, 3:07pm 1432609652

yada...yada...yet more far right wing ppl telling a party they dislike (at least) how to become National mk2. 35% voted left and 8% odd voted NZF, so hardly a big swing needed to gain power. Funny thing is I'd consider Phil Goff pretty right wing of the Labour party, btw he's now just a backbencher, hardly a leading light/target worth bothering with. Mallard meanwhile seems to be a pretty good MP, way better than many National MPs. So yeah a really honest appraisal on your part, not IMHO.

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 2:50pm 1432608614

Where did all the money go... recovering from the GFC, rebuilding CHCH... you need to take your blinkers off.

Labour ran surpluses because they governed through a period of huge global growth and arguably should have had greater surpluses. They also did nothing to stop one of the biggest nationwide property booms in recent history, no special housing areas, no new taxes, no increased supply, strong support for property investment, no control of foreign buying... Labour loved and supported their property boom.

Your welcome to throw mud at National but to infer that Labour are any different is absurd.

by profile | 26th May 15, 3:43pm 1432611791

Here's where it went... Got a nice train set to play with now though.

"In the year ended June 2004, core Crown operating spending was about $35,800 per household in fiscal year 2013 dollars, yet the government still had a fiscal surplus of 3.8 per cent of GDP. By the year ended June 2009, the government had lifted spending per household by 21 per cent to $43,400, in the same dollars, and there was a fiscal deficit of 2.1 per cent of GDP.

Electioneering spending enticements, such as interest-free student loans, Kiwisaver subsidies and working for families, were part of this spending transformation.

Despite recession and tax cuts, core Crown tax revenue in the year ended June 2009 was almost exactly the same, at $37,100 in fiscal year 2013 dollars, as in the year ended June 2004.

On these statistics, the switch from fiscal surplus to deficit between 2004 and 2009 was caused by an unsustainable spending splurge."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/9840884/New-Zealands-d…

by puketepapa | 26th May 15, 3:48pm 1432612134

Can you double check those Crown Tax revenue figures for 2004 and 2009 and 2013?

It suggests that in spite of increased population plus huge inbound migration numbers, GNP is standing still across a wider base

So where is that dividend?

And did the 2004 expenditure figure include "capital" contributions to the Cullen Fund?

Makes a difference

by Happy123 | 26th May 15, 4:06pm 1432613197

Nice attempt to muddy the waters, "...unsustainable spending splurge..." says it all.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 1:59pm 1432605561

Why do we want to run a surplus anyway ?

We have a brilliant credit rating , so why be averse to having some debt when we can all benefit from an expansionist policy framework ?

We need infrastructure and development , and this can only be done through borrowing ( in other words running an overdraft )

by sharetrader | 26th May 15, 2:45pm 1432608304

would you run a business that way, not likely even if you borrowed for expansion you would want a return on that dollar straight away to be able to service the debt.
who is going to service the debt our government has taken on, yes middle NZ they will lose out, the poor will still get looked after as we are a socialist conutry, the rich will structure what they have to make sure they can minimise what they pay.
it is also middle NZ that decides the governments and Change the goverment when they decide that its time they are looked after as well.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 2:53pm 1432608792

NO I beg to differ , how can any Company (or country grow) without debt ?

Its all but impossible to expect growth without debt .

We , as a country, run a deficit , and spend it on infrastructure etc , which increases GDP AND increases the velocity of money thereby a) creating work and jobs (b) generating taxes like GST and income tax (c) makes the economy more efficient through better roads hospitals schools , etc .

Sorry , but without access to borrowed capital we would be like North Korea , Cuba, Mozambique or Zimbabwe .

by Andrewj | 26th May 15, 2:58pm 1432609124

Borrowing from the future, we would be like China, USA, UK, Brazil, Greece and the rest of the EU.
You are assuming the future will be bigger than the past.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 3:30pm 1432611029

No Andrew you miss the point completely , our borrowing has been mostly for investment in infrastructure , and not all on wasteful hand-outs and consumption .

We have to improve our roads as the popn grows , and we cannot allow public buildings like hospitals and schools to fall into disrepair

We need connectivity in the form of UFB , so its a good investment

Greece has borrowed for consumption , some of it lavish and wasteful, and they are a very unproductive lot of noisy rabble-rousers .

To suggest Kiwis are in any way like Greeks is to insult all of us

by Andrewj | 26th May 15, 3:36pm 1432611361

You got to be frigging joking, are you a comedian? You forgot housing debt and all that rural debt all based on the rock that is compounding capital gain, without the supporting income.
Lucky I can see the cynicism.

by fat pat | 26th May 15, 10:23pm 1432635824

Apparently you can run a perpetual government deficit and have a stable debt to GDP ratio in a growing economy. Steve Keen's been using system dynamics to hammer this point for quite some time now. The housing debt is the thing that's out of control, not so much government spending.

by sharetrader | 26th May 15, 3:49pm 1432612185

it all comes out of the consolidated fund so when you argue that the borrowing is for this and that it doesnt stand up. the borrowing is to fund everything form infastructure to tax cuts to welfare etc.
that was the same argument chief sales man used for selling the power companies i thank the other side for keeping the price down as i did nicely from it but was it the best financal idea, no way the fiqures dont stack up

by steven | 26th May 15, 3:16pm 1432610171

A Govn/economy isnt a business.

If you accept National's plans for a PPP to "do up" our schools etc where the cost of borrowing alone (ignoring the profit %) is way higher then borrowing directly and doing it yourself would be far cheaper, especially buying construction in a depressed sector.

Middle is indeed screwed by both main parties IMHO paying the rump of the Govn income while indeed the better off seem to pay not so much. Change will come Im just not sure which party deserves to benefit from that as both are like 2 peas in a pod when it comes down to it.

by steven | 26th May 15, 3:09pm 1432609799

That is a very good Q and in fact classic Keynesian economics of you (I'm quite shocked!). Right now we can borrow very cheaply on 10 years and doing so carefully would be of benefit.

by Boatman | 26th May 15, 3:24pm 1432610645

Shocked Steven ? LOL I may be a bit thick , but I had a really good economics lecturer 34 years ago who was not interested in lecturing any form of Marxist ideology .

Most economics lecturers were idealistic lefties at that time

He was way ahead of his time (then ) and a Milton Freidman fan , so in order to get the ideas and point across he made sure we understood Keynesian theory in a lot of detail in his lectures .

Friedman was not an advocate of Keynes , but rather a critic who say the weaknesses in the Keynesian monetary theory .

So now you know , I may be a flippant voice in the chattering class , and hold contrarian views , but I am not totally uneducated

by rastus1 | 26th May 15, 2:45pm 1432608318

......some time back the value of the NZ$ was going to be the end of all exporters. Seems to have fallen off the radar of late....... funny how we just get on with it.

by Craig | 26th May 15, 3:52pm 1432612340

Unfortunately little has changed and export companies still struggle. It has just become yesterdays news in this world with a history/attention span of no more than 5 minutes.

by sharetrader | 26th May 15, 6:15pm 1432620926

interesting national still have high support and labour cant make headway
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/68868720/many-aucklanders-just-sc…