Latest Morgan poll sees Labour fall, Greens rise, NZ First over 5%; Labour now polling lower than at any time since the last election

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a strong rise in support for National (51%, up 3%) and a substantial lead over a potential Labour/Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%) just more than two months before the New Zealand Election on September 20.

Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little overall with the Maori Party 1% (down 0.5%), Act NZ (0.5%, down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Support for the Labour Party is 23.5% (down 4.5% - the lowest since November 22-24, 2011 – just before the 2011 New Zealand Election), the Greens are 15% (up 3% – the highest since August 26-September 8, 2013), New Zealand First is 6% (up 0.5%) and the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 1.5% (down 1%).

Support for the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 0.5%).

If a National Election were held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that the result would be an easy victory for the National Party and a third term for Prime Minister John Key.

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up slightly to 142.5pts (up 1pt) with 65.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (down 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is substantially higher than in Australia.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National (51%, up 3% in a fortnight) increasing a strong election-winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance (38.5%, down 1.5%). Today’s poll shows that the recent Labour Party Congress at which Opposition Leader David Cunliffe pledged increased spending on education of over $850 million over four years have failed to generate a positive response from the electorate.

“Cunliffe has also apparently ruled out doing any deals with the left-wing Internet-Mana Party alliance that would allow either Mana Party Leader Hone Harawira or Internet Party Leader Laila Harre to serve as Ministers in a future Labour Government. Cunliffe indicated his preference would be to do deals with the more established Greens and NZ First.

“While Prime Minister John Key has departed New Zealand for a ten day holiday in Hawaii, National now have their largest lead over Labour since the last New Zealand Election and are well on track to win their third election in a row.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 819 electors from June 30 – July 13, 2014.

Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.