New Zealand experienced its largest ever net loss of migrants to Australia in the year to November 2011 as 35,758 more people departed across the Tasman than arrived during the year, Statistics New Zealand says.
The net loss surpassed the previous high of 35,400 recorded in the year to December 2008, and was up from a net loss of 20,075 in the year to November 2010, figures show.
In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens.
That'll be the chch exodus....take the payouts and scarper quick...can't blame anyone for going...why stop here when a frugal lifestyle over there can lead to some huge savings if you have a mining job or something related to it....
Heck you might even score a managment job in the Queenlsand Health quarters...worth a try Trev.
You're right Wolly. You just have to look at all of the vacant sections coming on the market - people taking the insurance, tearing the house down, selling the land and leaving town.
Then you've got all the real estate ads "EQ repairs just completed" that means the owner has only been hanging around until their house became saleable.
Thoughts of rebuilding are laughable.
No need for big new subdivisions (don't tell Hugh, he'll be so disappointed). Just a few small ones is all that's needed. No big building boom either (we've survived a year with no CBD).
CERA and Brownlee etc are sadly out of touch.
There is still a huge amount of hardship, mainly due to the villians at IAG etc who are buggerising round on making payouts (still no payouts on any of our properties and I've heard worse stories about their ineptitude).
Mass overhaul of how insurance works is needed. Better planning on how to move forward and for God's sake fire all those pen pushing bureaucrats who would not know how to recover a pen if it fell on the floor.
It's not going to be a very merry Christmas for the tens of thousands still booted out of their homes who have insurance companies still taking the we couldn't give a stuff approach.
Shame on EQC, the Government and the Insurance Industry, they all try to make it sound like they're doing a good job, but in reality they don't give a damn.
Yeah, well - we contributed one 19 year-old to Sydney 2011. Took him 7 days to secure a 4 year apprenticeship after landing. Able to enrol via the local Tafe at Aus rates. May be our retirement plan ....
Does he know that yet?
It's making a difference around here. The neighbors wife is on her own 3 months at a time, her husband is on a mine in Q/land, 3 young children. My mechanic is on a mine in Western Aussie, ex shepherd is in Perth, wife looking to join him with young children. Farming friends have both young son's working in mines out of Perth. I have two friends in Emerald in coal mines. No decent jobs here, I think its because the Govt has its finger in every pie and its just too expensive, that means anything you build costs a fortune, owning you own business is bloody hard and you spend your whole bloody life working to pay off debt on overvalued assets to an Aussie bank.
Oh now be fair AJ...the bank bosses went to great risk to create the credit and pork the market to blow the bubble...they didn't just rely on the RBNZ and the Govt you know...without them where would we be............oh yeah...we'd be better off....!
Try to do anything in NZ and you end up fighting the rescourse managemaent act and the waitangi treaty.
Mmmm . . . . . that's equivalent to about two jumbo jets full of Kiwis each week heading to Aussie . . . . . and two empty jumbo jets returning (could be some cheap one-way tickets for Aussies).
They aren't going for the weather, LOL.
Australians used to working up a tan in the run up to Christmas are shivering and trying to escape the rain in the coldest start to summer for 50 years.
Temperatures have barely reached the seasonal average of 25 degrees since the official start to summer on December 1.
The sunshine and clear blue skies Australians usually enjoy at this time of year have instead been replaced by rain, wind and plenty of cloud cover.
Vincenzo Lionetti has run a restaurant and ice cream business on Bondi beach seafront for 40 years.
"This is the worst I have ever known," he told Sky News. "Gelato sales are down 50% at least...shops and cafes up and down the seafront cannot believe how bad it is."
It is not just Sydney which is suffering. Much of the Eastern seaboard of Australia has been hit.
Two weeks ago, the city of Brisbane recorded its coldest December day for 123 years.
weather has been quite good in Adelaide. Only couple of days of rain since start of the month, and yes temperatures have been a bit cooler but still a very nice mid / late 20s
Beats 16 degrees and rain in Auckland (summer???)
But isn't this cause for celebration?
According to many of the participants on the discussions of housing affordability, the problem is "too much (net?) immigration", nothing to do with Councils and urban land supply regulations at all, yadda, yadda, yadda.
Here's my take: the councils urban land supply regulations are just another reason why our best people are pissing off overseas and the only people who actually come here, are people from busted-arse countries who want to get out regardless of where they go. The good ones among them, end up in Aussie a few years later too.
Well, if that's a reflection that young, and not-so-young, Kiwis don't see a future in their own country it's a bit sad. But frankly, they could pick another destination :P And don't we run the risk of the Aussies getting a bit sick of so many Kiwis invading them?!
They might be glad to get us kiwi's than anyone else:)
They are; the Kiwis who go to Aussie are some of the world's highest quality immigrants.
Aussie employers love them.
Maoris who go to Aussie are praised by Aussie employers for their work ethic.
((Anecdotal evidence, sure.....but.......)
Yes, is a bit sad & wife not that happy - but then we are lucky to have this next door neighbour country which allows our young people work there without visas etc. Also the UK is not as easy to get work visas for as previously.
And NZ has always been a place to leave for a while - most/many come back in their 30s. Maybe.
Elley: It's all relative. interest.co.nz is a notable news organ because it has good balance of overseas news. However interest.co.nz and the NZ news-media generally do not delve too deeply into the minutiae of current affairs in OZ. The news that is published is of a booming economy which attracts kiwis attention. A bit of history of the immigration into Australia about the White Australia policy is here http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/08abolition.htm which was in force until the late 1900's now its open slather. To the point where NZers are hard to distinguish from aussie born locals. The rate of immigration into AU has been running at 400,000 pa for the past few years. 10000-30000 from NZ is hardly noticeable. They are assimilated very easily and quickly so long as they keep their mouths shut, don't complain, and dont tell the locals how to do things better. Australia is a harsh country that is unforgiving. There is a great deal of hostility building up about illegal boat people who are arriving at the rate of about 20,000 per annum, get immediate access to full welfare, rent assistance, etc etc etc. NZers who come here and fall on hard times cannot get assistance for two years. The cost of welfare support for illegals is currently running at $1 billion per annum and growing rapidly. Published stats for last year was it cost the govt $200 million just for cigarettes and phone calls for refugees. The relativity: An Iraqi, Afghan, Iranian who arrives here with nothing, from a hostile place, will survive better than a kiwi arriving from a good place. Unless kiwis can get jobs quickly, they will be quickly disillusioned and heading back home.
Many of the refugees have large families and get $1000+ per week in instant welfare plus additional assistance which the locals cant get.
In 2008, John Key was suppose to reverse this trend. It has gone up since he has been Prime Minister. Another failure by National. They have done very little to increase jobs in New Zealand. I am self employed but I have seen young families deserting their "motherland" and heading across the ditch. Sad. If I were younger I would have left long ago.
Gosh jackp you know National's policy is to reduce taxes because it creates more employment....that's why they raised gst to 15%....about $25,000 on a new house....err!
umm you don't pay GST on a house.
A bit harsh on John Key maybe .. he has had the ChCh earthquake during his term plus the GFC, which labour didn't have while they were in term. Those are 2 very major events completely out of control of the incumbent government.
You do on a new build, KP. Not the land or secondhand houses though. For a $200,000 build cost you will be charged an additional $30,000 tax.
BTW, when GST went up it increased by 20%. That was a massive tax increase, hidden by being constantly refered to as a 2.5% increase.
What makes it a killer for folk KD is they would have to borrow most of it from a thieving bank...no wonder then that average low paid Kiwi say "stuff that"...imagine paying interest to a parasite that created the credit, so you can hand the thieving govt $30,000 in gst....
I'm sorry to say it is a waste of time screaming this message into Bill English's earhole because all you get is an ECHO.....echo......echo....
It is obvious that John Key's catch up with Australia promise entails all of us moving over there.
Suggestion: the South Island should secede from NZ, and become the 7th State of Australia.
Then all people would need to do is catch the Picton Ferry to emigrate.
No thanks Phil. That'd mean Richie McCaw and Dan Carter playing for the Wallabies.
Just Southland, then, perhaps?
Pleeeze.
NZ needs a kind of "enterprise zone" somewhere.
Maybe that's all we need, without cutting it politically adrift - an enterprise zone.
Something like Houston. You want opportunity, you go there.
You want to be "protected" by regulations and government agencies, from the nasty capitalists and property developers, etc etc, you stay in Wellington.
With an excellent education system, how can New Zealand ever economically improve, neglecting the manufacturing sector ? The largest ever annual net migration loss to Australia is a clear sign of mismanagement of our economy by the government.
Education system, my 8 yr old has just finished a UNSW exam paper from OZ, the school encourages them to do them to Evaluate there progress. ? So they use an Australian insitute to do this...we may as well become the extra state of Australia now, before we have to mortgagee sale ourselves to them anyway.
Blame John Key, seems to be the common thing to do these days..
Correct CM - I’m wonder how long it takes from right wing people to recognise that PM Key isn’t the right person to lead the country. He’s lack of understanding that an economy has to interact with the entire society, but especially with hardworking middle class Kiwis is obvious.
It was a wind up..
Leafties have lost their sense of humour (and reality). They may have flushed it down the loo by mistake!
Lefties are too fully engaged in shaping the world ( that includes you , Chairman M. ) into their image of how it ought to be , and how we all ought to behave .... to have a sense of humour . They never had one to begin with .
..... lefties require bulk quantities of laxatives .... they're severely bound up !
Shit-a-brick , brother , their poo is too solid to flush .... ... you could apply mortar and use it to re-build houses in Christchurch ......
Go get im Walter........stay well.
Christov - Key’s speech in parliament today was rather an embarrassment – worthless, even childish, certainly not representing the leader of the nation.
I agree, but probably for the opposite reasons of what you think.
I think NZ has a dismal lack of politically engaged "conservatives" who have any clue whatsoever about the threat to civilisation that "liberal leftism" (and its bastard cousin environmentalism) is.
Even National MP's are anxious to assure inquirers that "no, I have never read Investigate Magazine and wouldn't dream of doing so".
Let alone a good grounding in solid conservative and free-enterprise writings like Thomas Sowell's.
Not one National MP, and especially not John Key, could perform in debates and interviews with antagonistic liberal leftists (including media hosts), like Newt Gingrich or Chris Christie or Thomas Sowell or Allyn West or Ann Coulter.
There is probably not one single equivalent in NZ, of any of those people, who ever gets any airtime or column-inches. If anyone looks like being a threat to the prevailing liberal-left hegemony, the media quickly acts to marginalise them with a smear campaign of quotes out of context, manipulated video bites, half-truths and innuendo.
This is why NZ is the opposite of a "great nation". If liberal leftists wrote the sports page, which is about the only thing they don't, it would be all about how every match was rigged, one team "exploited" the other's "unfair disadvantage", "ruthless and greedy capitalists" refused to share the points equally, etc etc etc.
If only NZ-ers acted in socio-economic matters as they do regarding sport. One team worked harder. Trained harder. Had better tactics. Made sure they got and retained the best people. Utilised their natural advantages (eg beating teams of little Asian men 100-4).
Yeah but if we're lucky The Feelers will move over there. That'd be a win.
Ha! Right on. What was Muldoons call again? 'Increasing the IQ on both sides of the Tasman' One of his very few gems!
he borrowed it, sayings origins were about the Irish some time ago.
he borrowed it, sayings origins were about the Irish some time ago.
Well directed plagiarism then. About the sum total of Muldoons legacy in my clearly uninformed eyes.
I dislike Muldoon so much, I am glad to hear he plagiarised that extremely witty comment.
But I loved his acid tongue in appropriate situations: like when he said of Robert Mugabe, to a crowd of assembled journalists after a Commonwealth Heads of Government Conference after Mugabe had attacked "apartheid in New Zealand" - Muldoon said something like:
"When you've spent most of your political career running around in the jungle shooting people, it is unlikely you will understand how things work in civilised countries".
Hey Vanderlei, what happened to Santos against Barcelona the other day? Do they need you - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanderlei_Luxemburgo - coaching them again?
Gareth Barca are the greatest football club of all time, so I'm not sad about that.
I need to stay here fighting the spread of white-boy breakup music for the sake of kiwi's past,present, and future.....
Fair enough! And yes, love watching Barcelona at the moment.
Quite a lot of 'Mozzies' now in Aussy, and many doing very well there, has been a good safety valve for Aotearoa though
In 2011 the world’s population will exceed 7 billion. Each year we add nearly 80 million people, and by mid-century we will require twice as much food and double the energy we use today. Australia will be deeply affected by these trends—we have the fastest-growing population of any developed nation.
These are the staggering facts that confronted Dick Smith. They set him on his crusade to alert us to the dangers of unsustainable growth. They are the facts that have convinced him that if we are to ensure the survival of our civilisation and the health of the planet then we must put a stop to population growth—now.
As our cities continue their unrestrained growth, as we battle daily on crowded public transport and clogged freeways, and as we confront the reality of water and power shortages, Dick challenges the long-held myth that growth is good for us. But more importantly he offers ways for us to re-invent our economy, to reassess the way we live and to at least slow down that ticking clock. This is a provocative, powerful and urgent call to arms.
The long-held myth that 'growth is good' is a fallacy. If you had a cancerous tumour, would you want it to grow? Our quality of lives go down the more we expand the populations of our cities, not up. More traffic, more stress, higher house prices, less space, more pollution - this is what this 'growth' has given us. Yet politicians are obsessed with it - 'growth at all costs' is their motto. Every single political party talks about how much growth they are going to deliver, blah blah blah.
The focus should be in growth of things that matter, like quality of life, time to spend with family, quality of public services, wages, efficiencies. All these things can be achieved without population growth.
I think it's a good thing for NZ that people are leaving for Aussie. Australians are already paying the price for their government's 'population growth' strategy - just look at the smog, traffic, crime and house prices in Sydney.
Agreed KP. Shame about famillies being split up but we've got enough people here for my liking.
Dude, do yourself a favour and read The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley (that goes for you too BH) and understand that economic growth is good for the planet, as economic growth = reduced population growth.
The facts speak for themselves.
Next, read Power Hungry by Robert Bryce and understand how so called 'Green Energy' s not the silver bullet everyone expects it to be.
Fear not, Chicken Littles of interest.co.nz, the future is brighter than youz can imagine, apparently :)
It isnt a rational analysis, its a prayer book.
Understand an imperitive, we are on a finite planet so cannot grow infinitely at 4%.....to underst6and that 4% every 18years or so the global GDP has to double....to do 4% growth we need 2.5% more fossil energy to do so....or roughly our energy growth doubles every 30 years. 85mbpd x 2.....in 60 years its another x 2....
If you dont understand, here is its meaning, "absolutely necessary or required; unavoidable"
In order to get to a stable population everyone has to live a 1st world lifestyle standard, at present something like only 1.5billion do so and use 85mbpd to do it. There isnt the oil available today to instantly take 7billion to 1st world status.....let alone maintain it, or even get there over say 30 years....and we'll be 9billion or more by then according to the UN (I think we will be <5billion myself.....)
There isnt the oil left to even sustain 1.5billion as they wish to live today.
That is logic and rational thinking based on evidence and data.....anything else is blind hope, or prayer....
Green energy, not reaad it but from your one line I suspect it will tell me what I already know, green energy cant do it either....but I will read it out of interest.
Hmm synopsis, gas and nuclear are the way forward.....quak....quack...oops..... sorry he fails.....gas will peak pretty soon if fracking doesnt get banned....and nuclear all but has....all he has really done is shotdown something that needed shooting down and replaced it with even worse.
like duh.
regards
So you've read it then, eh steven?
The message of the two books im trying to point out is that we should be using the hydrocarbons to raise te living standards of the poor of the planet while we can.
Current technology allows us to do this - inexpensively - with hydrocarbons.
When living standards are raised, population growth slows - to the point where it actually starts to reverse.
Only poor people have lots of babies.
Next, we use ever expanding reserves of carbon neutral Natural Gas while its economically suitable to build a modern nuclear fission infrastructure to support the modern and emerging economies.
The argument re the source of Global Warming is Irrelevant; what matters is we use what we have to adapt to changing environmental and economic conditions to foster economic growth & technological innovation, which will, and always has been our savior.
Good to see someone else standing up to the eco-hysteria.
I wish someone would pay me to counter-troll on blogs all day.
These people are like rust, death, and taxes. Do they do anything else with their time except hijack blog threads with eco-loony propaganda?
In fact, it's worse than "loony". People in the 1930's thought the Nazis were "loonies" too. Where does an inherently anti-human ideology end if it's lies are spread and disseminated and come to be believed on as absolute truth, especially via almost all media and state education systems?
"The Rational Optimist" by Matt Ridley is excellent. So are the following:
"The Genius of the Beast" by Howard Bloom
"The Improving State of the World" by Indur M Goklany
"The Skeptical Environmentalist" by Bjorn Lomborg
"The State of Humanity" by Julian Simon
"Environmentalism Refuted" by George Reisman
"The Annual Index of Environmental Indicators" by Steven F. Hayward
Yes, Steven and PDK and the rest of them will sneer at these people. Never mind that they write the truth, and embryo totalitarian movements always fear the truth. How many people who warned the world about Naziism were given any credibility? How many of them are even remembered today, even though they were some of the most right people in history?
Worse, any fool these days can use the internet to find out the truth.
In this era of Google Earth, people believe the hysteria and lies about "running out of land"?
Far out.
Even the medieval papal heierarchy couldn't get away with stuff this bad. If people wanted to work out whether Galileo was right, they had to work their brains quite hard.
New Zealand has "enough people"?????
Israel has 8 million in a territory the size of one NZ province.
The Netherlands has 14 million in a territory the size of one NZ province.
Japan has 120 million in a territory smaller than NZ.
None of these people are in poverty, or starving to death.
By the way, India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and almost every 3rd world country, is far less populated than almost every European country. Africa is the least densely populated continent, even when only "arable" land is taken into account.
Poverty-related "overcrowding" is always the result of undemocratic land sharing economic systems. Poverty and famine is now always the result of failed cultures and politics.
Besides the books I mentioned above, I also recommend the Lincoln Institute's "Global Atlas of Land Consumption".
The world needs more energy and fossil fuels won't cut it.
There is a major correlation between human progress and a decrease in the price of energy. Here is an interesting TED talk about it: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JaF-fq2Zn7I
Nuclear is green and cheaper than fossil fuels, its inevitable it gets used more as CO2 costs become a real economic motivator. After that: fusion power.
I mostly agree, but remember that we do typically need to see growth to reflect at least the growth in population.
What we rarely see is a balanced report on growth. As in "during 2011 we grew as a population by x%, our economy grew by y% and our carbon/environmental impact grew by z%".
Which means that we just get the constant message of "growth at all costs". It's inevitable I suppose given the monetary system that we have, but you're right - it's not healthy or ultimately sustainable.
Canada has a similar strategy of population growth and its working much better. Its the management of growth thats failing in Oz.
Canada has pulled out of Kyoto, and is busily extracting its fossil fuel resources by whatever means, including fracking, selling it to anyone who will buy it, and building trans-continental pipelines.
Wise people. They've seen the light amidst all the decadent Western post-reason regarding resources and wealth.
They can't be that stupid. They seem to be running their ecconomy one hell of a lot better than us; and it is not just the minerals either.
Bollocks CM...it is the mining. Wait until you see what happens when China spits the dummy and stops buying.
Not just Australia, the whole Asia (and may be the world) will be in the dunny if they do
My pick. At least 6% growth in Chinese GDP in 2012, come what may. If correct the envy of every single western nation. Eye on the euro debacle people, they are having a shocker. They have the tools/resources to deal with their issues, yet the beggars bowl is out? Insane.
A certain symmetry with boomers in this country, unable to digest the reality that my generation(Xer) and those that follow cannot afford to fund their retirement at 65. The readies have not been put aside through their priviledged period. Education free, cheap housing, plentiful jobs. The game has changed, as me and my cohorts have sussed out, worked hard and paid for our slice of education, paid good money for our own roof and plugged away to get a decent job or missed/missing out. (As it should be) I can already hear the 'I've worked hard and paid my taxes all my life' You also voted for successive govt's that pissed those hard earned savings into the wind, more fool you. Unfortunately for the likes of me boomers are still the largest voting block and will continue to dominate the debate.
Im sure there is no shortage of counter argument to this. Not bitter, just miffed at the inequality of oppertunity and the lack of acknowledgement of this. How's it going to be for my 3 year old? Even tougher I suspect.
Also, please enlighten me as to why my taxes bailed out my old mans investment in SCF. (I have yet to experience a coherent reason) The last person who needs or is justified a bailout on the odd stupid decision. Hes flush,(because hes worked bloody hard to be fair) and should of had to take the hit, as I speculate the vast majority of investors who were enjoying what, 7-8% returns prior to SCF collapse. What happened to accountability? At an individual, govt and corporate level it appears to have utterly vanished.
Elephant in room re China:
China has the world's biggest property bubble.
I have been saying for years that China and India will be part of an "Asian Crisis II", bigger than ever.
The reason: the level of "planning gain".
Mainstream economists are clueless about the role of this in the future economic trajectory of a nation.
Check out the correlations with Japan, California, the UK's frequent cycles, Ireland, Spain, etc etc.
We call it "urban growth containment" but in China and India it does not have this fig leaf of respectability, it is straight out corruption.
The result there is rows and rows of empty apartment buildings that some "greater sucker" is stuck with at prices too high to fill with customers - millions of whom still live in slums.
If the same apartments had been built in free market Houston, the Chinese slum dwellers could actually afford to live in them.
The same goes for new housing in NZ versus Houston.
Phil,
China's realestate bubble is undeniable given the Chinese govts own actions to deflate it. However I think their ability to deal with it while maintaining a growth strategy far exceeds the west. Giant cash reserves, massive offshore investment, lack of a welfare state.
My view is not wholly unsubstantiated. Projections of resource requirements from the bigger commodites suppliers remains bullish in relation to chinese demand medium term. While unwilling to reveal my source this is certainly not speculation/prospectus regurgitation. Based on rigorous analysis way above my head.
Anyway, how about that SCF debacle? Is someone gonna enlighten me? WTF is up with that?
Interesting, Leadbelly.
We shall see.
I still think you underestimate the size of a property bubble relative to everything else. Don't worry, almost everyone does this and has done so every time there is a property bubble.
Yes, China has resources - but their property bubble is pretty dam big............
Aussie mining represents less that 3% of GDP. I'm not convinced.
I didn't realise that it was that low. I had 7% floating arround in my mind but without any veracity. Anyway my impression is that we Kiwi's love to use their minerials wealth as an excuse for our own comparitive short commings. You could argue that our dairy industry is a similar bost to our ecconomy. Notwithstanding any of this they have some very better worked out aspects to their ecconomy, but it is not perfect either, nothing is.
error
Good stuff from David Shearer:
"Labour will grasp the mantle of economic leadership. We will look to expand opportunity for all New Zealanders, wherever they are born or whoever they are born to.
We must build an economy that produces good jobs and decent incomes.
That generates wealth and opportunity, without sacrificing our natural assets, our lifestyles or our communities.
That’s why I’m taking science and innovation.
That’s why I’m giving to our most senior spokespeople:
economic development, and small business, and regional development, and skills and training, and also environment and education…all on the front bench.
They’re all part of the same vision - to create the growing New Zealand we want, that will be clean, green and innovative.
Our agriculture and our primary industries are the backbone of our economy, and have been for generations, and will continue to be central.
But we can’t multiply our dairy industry five times or more to catch Australia’s economy.
Nor can we rely on our tourist industry alone.
Yet our economy is slowly declining in relation to others.
Forty years ago meat exports paid our pharmaceutical bill 18 times over – today, it pays for them just seven times over.
But the Government’s strategy goes something like this: as China and Asia grow richer they will demand a higher protein diet.
We grow protein, therefore we’re ideally positioned.
That’s not a strategy. It’s a hope.
It’s a hope that we won’t have to change so that we can keep doing more or less the same thing we’ve done since the 1960s."
http://labour.org.nz/news/address-in-reply
Were there some important points in that press release? Seems to be all political BS and not much in terms of concrete planning going forward.. usual speech writer stuffs
Did the speech-writers just Twink out Phil Goff's name , and pop " David Shearer " over the top ?
..... same old socialist guff , we want to grow the economy , yadda yadda ......
Still no one political party has the good sense to say , " we'll set up a business friendly framework , a level playing field , and let the economy grow itself .... "
…and Gummy - what about the rather embarrassing speech of Key today, talking more about Labour’s economic plans he doesn’t know about, then the Nationals ?? We listened to an already desperate “leader” protecting his skin in a very aggressive and unprofessional way.
Note: Billions of NZ$ are leaving the country - the government allocating infrastructure orders to foreign companies/ workforces - yadda yadda !
Take it easy , Walter ...... Jolly Kid only has 3 years left ... Two terms only , as the onion grower said , " that's shallot , pal " ...... Shearer will win in 2014 ...
....... truth be told , neither the Nats or Labour will take the hard decisions to reign in the bloated welfare state .....
Not until it's too late , when the bailiffs come knocking for their munny back , and the IMF gives us a call ...... then under the guise of " necessity " , the politicians will wake up to reality ,and tighten their belts ..... too little , too late ...
Key will be gone before three years - I reckon.
Why do you reckon that , Walter ?
..... certainly , Jolly Kid's speech in parliament ( yesterday ) was fluff & bubble ... he had alot of personal digs at Shearer and Cunliffe ...... OK for the last sitting of the year....
One hopes that'll be the end of it , and after the summer break , he gets his arse into gear .......
I read a story, which was written by Richard Clarke in the NZ Herald - I’m impressed.
This is a well and good speech from Shearer and I especially like his stated aim to have New Zealand a free and independent thinker that makes up its own mind on global issues based on its own values.
But its not as thought there were a standard set of values that were cemented into the psyche of each and every one of us. We are somewhat divided politically by values or at least how to achieve them. Key's economic agenda has no local flavour, he takes his template from a global financial *system* that is based on the insane premise that mankind can expect and plan for market (!) growth and population expansion at the expense of every other form of consciousness on the planet. We are watching a race to see which will fail first, a market driven growth or the very environment we exist in.
If we do not begin to comprehend our position in the framework of nature and a loving concern for it , it will cease to sustain us.
New Zealand is in a unique position to pioneer new financial ideas and technologies that can be highly advantageous to all and hopefully this is what Shearer is on about.
The current love affair with Key is a buy into a failing model.
The people's person, not the money's person.
Yes Les - Shearer will shred (manufacture) Key to pieces – good on him. I have great believe in him. In 12 months time we finally have a new PM, who is capable to turn this country around – Labour, Greens, Mana and aeh, hmm - who is that guy from Tauranga ?
Just found out, my box of Weetbix, at the back it has the same article.. that's where he got it from!
Lets start by Govt actually helping business, small and medium not just big, add value to our primary product and export without prohibitive costs.
Case in point - Small business, say 6 employees. Local cheesemaker(C). Finds export market. To access export market C's production premises must be subject to RMP provisions, say 12 -15K to set up then 2K yearly inspection fee, ball park. C already adheres to every requirement to sell on the local market, is sqeaky clean. Yet to obtain the necessary export certification, see above additional costs. (simplified but more or less accurate)
The rules of international trade are highjacked by big business with Govt support, creating untenable costs unless economies of scale is on your side. 'Free trade' only applies to the backscratchers. To the rest the scraps. I'm in the certification game at present, and its a racket.
RMP? What is that?
Risk management programme/protocol/provisions/process. Not sure on the P(not my area of certification), regulatory bodies are acronym infested. Its like text messaging for beurocrats.
Beaurocrats - dammit!
fail! try again.
If David Shearer really means that, I am encouraged.
But Socialists frequently have no idea about the necessary "means".
Shearer is absolutely right that NZ has to move on beyond relying on primary produce exports. That ceased to make any nation wealthy, at about 1970.
"Wealth" has been created in urban economies for decades now.
Shearer is absolutely right to point out the shifting balance of trade between pharmaceuticals and meat. The same goes for virtually any item of primary produce versus virtually anything manufactured.
The biggest lunacy we are committing, is strangling urban economies and destroying "opportunity" in them, by "containing urban growth" and forcing urban land prices up.
Not to mention the effects of the restrictions and regulatory processes themselves.
Owen McShane listed in an NBR column about 2 years ago, about 35 billion dollars worth of projects that had been abandoned in NZ in the preceding 12 months, that he knew about. Goodness knows what else was happening in a "death of 1000 cuts" kind of way, throughout the entire economy at every level.
one of my daughters getting married early next year.husband to be, best man and grooms men, total of four.kiwi born and bred,got to come back from aussie for wedding.all aged 22-24.
sad!
tummble weed be blowing main street the way things are going.
silence except the hum of a passing mobility scooter.
maybe JKs youth rate $8.
next generation wont be able to afford a plane ticket to aus.
Gummy is right, Key and Co are out in three...
I helped 31 businesses relocate from Christchurch, eighteen from Auckland this year. Thirty nine in total off overseas, no presence remaining in NZ.
If every other consultant in my field has had a similar work profile this year...there will be no emerging enterprise left in the economy to discuss.
The stats reflect some really talented people leaving this year. Our enterprise economy has taken a massive hit which will be felt for at least a generation.
Any common reason for this exodus, Speckles? What type of businesses?
Cheers.
Thats interesting and confirms my belief of whats going to happen in my industry. We have reached a stage where in my field its better to cut production and costs than continue as we have been, going for max production and wearing the costs. I think we will see exports fall as the great Kiwi socialist experiment lands flat on its face. Costs have got out of out of hand, and the only way to effectively improve profits is to cut production and stop spending as much or leave the country. A friend told me yesterday the the government is now %55 of gdp. All the government is doing is making sure that sometime in the future we have an unhappy ending.
Absolutely.
Note too that "GDP" figures are more and more artificial, the higher the "government share of the economy" grows.
Government spending is merely added in to GDP calculations, dollar for dollar.
So if government borrows and spends another few billion, you need to net this out of GDP figures to really see where the country is heading.
See what I said above about Owen McShane's list of abandoned private sector projects in NZ.
The first world is in a kind of ridiculous, smoke and mirrors denial state today. Every governmnet is borrowing money to lend to other governments. GDP figures are inflated by government spending, with government share of the economy now having crucially crowded out the meaningful stuff.
If growth is 2 to 3 %, but government spending has increased from 45% of the economy to 50%, then that economy is going backwards. Simple mathematics.
The Clark government did this to NZ. Spent every cent of bubble revenues while the private sector and households were going deep into debt; embedded utterly unrealistic levels of spending that John Key and Co have been spineless about confronting; strangled the productive "tradables" sector of the economy (it shrank 12% while Clark was PM), bought "assetts" that are actually a bottomless pit for taxpayers money (and again the Key Govt has been utterly spineless about confronting this), and created a Frankenstein public sector whose main role is obstruction and destruction of opportunity and enterprise.
I think NZ, like most of the modern democratic world, is headed for eventual sovereign default. Roger Douglas' deep unpopularity is emblematic of a deep immorality now embedded in our society regarding "living within our means" and "not borrowing money you can't or won't pay back".
But half the problem is the excessive willingness of investors all over the world, to lend money to profligate governments. These people deserve to lose the lot. Fair enough if "the people" refuse to allow assett sales or whatever it takes, to pay back sovereign debt. "The people's choice" is actually sovereign default, this is now almost guaranteed.
Actually, "the people's choice" is really endless Father Christmas, tooth fairy government, as if this was an option. We are indeed in post-reason times.
Well well well - we agree on something.
We are indeed in post-reason times.
Not just Govts to blame, of course. Growth is exponential, to the most recent flurry is always going to look like a bubble. The Clark Govt would have been history, had they clamped down, as would this one if it told the truth.
Notice the lack of the word 'growth' in their election spiel? It was 'building', which Joe Bloggs may assume means growth, but which means diddly-squat.
Governments, when push comes to shove, are all of us. The only thing that happens when they shoulder debt, is that the poor get poorer and the rich get not-so-poorer.
Good luck with that medium multiplex thingy, hope it works out for you.
All types of businesses, hard to get too general as each has it own unique circumstances . For Christchurch the reduced quality of life and the strategy not considering businesses in the rebuild has been a deal breaker.
Auckland clients have found market pressures have demanded them to adapt and at least a partial move closer to markets, changes in the supply chain and production.
The consideration and introduction to new markets through necessity has change owners point of view. Most are already living a much larger life and I'm happy for them. Sad for NZ though.
John Key - for a good working, competitive and sustainable economy you need the majority of the hard working NZpopulation - not just 20% of slave drivers.
I’m convinced over the next 12 month not only the nation, but the national party will experiencing that J. Key isn’t the right person for the job as PM.
He’s economic ambitions are clearly focus on the upper class encouraging inequality and not the majority of hard working Kiwis, already struggling to pay the bills. In the current economic climate decent employment and decent jobs must have priority.
Shearer and the Greens have far better adapted to the worldwide situation and have, which we will hear soon constructive economic plans.
Greens ? .. " adapted to the worldwide situation " ... !!!!!!
.... . I know it's Christmas , Walter , but have you been hitting the Goldschlager bottle a little too hard ....... hmmm !
Roger - I wish you a nice Christmas and a Happy New Year.
Kunst, you talk in cliches. What do you mean by 'upper class' ? Is someone earning $120k a year 'upper class", I think not. You talk of 'majority of hard working Kiwis struggling to pay the bills'.
But I, and countless others, are also hardworking and can pay the bills, because we are hard working and enterprising. Your class warfare rhetoric is pretty sad, wouldn't be surprised if you are an oldie who hails from Europe bringing your class prejudices with you.
Yes, one of the most disturbing trends about the very low quality immigration NZ is getting, are the Valerie Morse types turning up here hoping to join up with a revolutionary struggle to turn NZ into the Cuba of the South Pacific.
Scratch some of these people, and they cannot help but break out into paroxysms of praise for what a wonderful place Cuba is, and how unreasonable people are for being critical of Dear Fidel and St. Che and their murderous colleagues.
Philbest - a little bit strange your comment : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Mickmastor/Sandbox
I don't know her, so I cannot comment.
http://www.salient.org.nz/features/valerie-morse-rebel-without-a-pause
Muzza – people make a big mistake talking about them selves only, when commenting
- great isn’t http://www.emigratenz.org/Work.html. $ 120'000.- ????
I'm talking about the majority of Kiwis.
In connection with my “Key article” above and to continue with a debate, I like to ask you a few questions: Are you self –employed or working for a company ?
Did you lose customers in the last 6 months ? How do you see the future of the business ?
I agree and don't want to get too personal, but I am a Company Director, and also have investments including commercial and residential real estate. Yes, we lost a substantial customer this year but have picked up others, so nothing unusual there. And I'm positive about the future in NZ (except there is far too much welfare going to national super etc which needs to be dealt with but too many vested interests there). I am expecting 2012 to be a particularly good year business wise (unless there is a calamity in the Middle East).
Muzza - of different reasons, there will be always people of our society, who are still in a good position to do business and of course people have the possibility to manoeuvre them selves in such positions – the rich and super rich included.
The majority of our society does not have such skill/ gifts or are limited in their ability or finances to do so. This applies especially now with the worldwide economic/ financial difficult situation. Businesses struggle, go bankrupt not necessary because of their own fault, but because orders/ work have gone – no demand – jobs aren’t available. When it affects major businesses it has the potential to affect you and me and there is not much we can actually do against. A dangers chain reaction of unemployment within the society will follow – hammering hard working middle class people.
That is the reason, why I’m strongly advocating for solid, sustainable and diverse NZproduction activities.
Easy start drilling and reverse the trend. Norway has been drilling since the 70s, and they can put our 100% Pure NZ image to shame! (yes, i've been there)
Good to know more information why:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/986a577e-72fb-11df-9161-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1hE4KAjei
http://www.salon.com/2010/05/03/norway_2/
http://www.norsar.no/c-75-Seismicity-of-Norway.aspx
..and just with 3 articles - all of a sudden it ibecomes a different story - similar to other issues.
Put a dollop of salts to whatever Dr Norman says..
CM – I’m interested what you are saying after reading the 3 articles. It is easy for the government to say drilling/ mining is okay. Are we prepared for such major operations under these circumstances – technically and operational ? What happen in an emergency ? There are many important questions waiting for answers.
(See Pike River)
Would it not have helped the safety aspect if Pike River had been open-cast?
And why are Kiwis so dam perverse about things like open cast mines in spots where nobody goes, nobody has even heard of, and nobody could even spot on Google Earth if they were surfing to find an open cast mine without knowing where they are?
Why are wind farms OK, when their relative value per unit of eyesore is hundreds of times less?
I reckon the govt should just do mining and drilling in the safest way, in locations where nobody goes and nobody would notice, without even bothering to put it out for discussion. What the eco loonies don't know won't hurt them.
You just pointed out why Australia get away with it. We have few places of that description. Pike river open cast? No noy possible even excluding degradation.
Correct me if I am wrong.. from way back Pike Rivers was proposed as open cast and then Labour govt force them to mine by tunneling????
Why are some folk so stupid?
Why do them only think in terms of what human-kind might see? Are there no other values or imperatives, then?
Why is it that in the same breath, they say there are no limits, yet advocate specific activities at specific sites?
Because they are arguing from their own wee, narrow, selfish, myopic angle, for their own wee gratification, now.
The world according to a science-denying, maths-denying, religion-believing, future generation depriving, and - of all things - property developer.
Geeez Phil, the other day you wanted to fill up the holes - On 20 Dec PhilBest said: Rubbish, NZ could fit 25 million people into current wilderness and hicksville areas and none of the current 4 million people need even notice. They might notice their increased incomes, though. - Now you want to dig holes "in locations where nobody goes and nobody would notice"
There's plenty of room to do both.
We have a serious problem of failure to discern "scale" here.
The Netherlands has 14 million people on land of the same amount as Canterbury, and Greenies love their high density cities (of which there are still several, notice), their bicycle paths, and their public transport.
There are sickening ironies in all this - like the Greenies wanting to squash humans in to less than 0.5% of the planet's land space and leave as much as possible of the other 99% entirely to unspoiled nature - claiming all the while, that "planet earth has run out".
I think I'll go and bash my head on a brick wall, literally, for a while, to give myself a break here.
I am in the view that we can either:
1. Choose to be poor and drft towards third world status or
2. The country can start earning decent incomes; Can we rely tourism, agriculture as our main incomes? China is fast becoming the world's fruit basket. Tourism, do i need to explain? Hi tech industries - not sure if we can sustain before someone else can do it cheaper and faster.
We have some valuable minerals that we can extract to meet the current demands, may be the next 30 years. Yep, there are risks in everything we do and there will always be exceptions i.e. Pike Rivers.. The fact is, we need to discuss mining as a option - people like Norman will just like to shut everyone up before we even started.
Afghanistan will be the next Australia for mining - would love to send Dr Norman there to protest! I will even contribute to his airfare..
30 years, eh Chairman?
you got kids?
Yip, I have and if I am poor then my kid will be even poorer... A bit like famine cycle, if you dont have enough to eat, what make you think your kid will have plentiful. One of reason why I am staying on in Aus.. at least they have a solid base to go forward.
Nevermind, you can keep your blinker on...
My better half (of 30 years) is Australian. I've done 5 years there, in all. It's a two-tiered society, resource-extraction, and everything else.
Sustainability wise, I wouldn't go there. NZ wins in spades; better soil, better rainfall, more temperate, better hydro-power per head and per area (Aus is coal-fired - you been out to Lithgow? They wouldn't be driving electric cars, they'd be driving coal cars, think about it.
I remember a property about the same size as the one we have now, back of Macksville - I wouldn't trade for love nor money, knowing what I know now about what you need to be sustainable.
You stay there, though - more for each of us who stay. After we've nationalised back what's been sold off......
Hold on to that thought and countries like Aus will start giving NZ development aid money. Because we will be the next Tonga of South Pacific.. Lots of trees but nothing else. Nice one!. Have a god xmas.
Good connection. There is virtually no country in the world today where the need for development aid money is due to actual lack of natural resources. The needs are the result of culture and politics.
"Green" politics will have the same effect as paganism or communism.
If you are going to live in Australia you had better have a good job lined up and have heaps of cash for the bond on the rental. It is not cheap to live there. And have a look at the recent news on retail and property prices. Australia is on the turn and for the worse. They have too much debt like the rest of the world and now many of them are struggling to pay the bills and of course some are paying off debt faster or are saving. Look at the huge drop in the price of JB Hi Fi share price. That tells you all is not well over the ditch. If you can afford to live in NZ stay here and keep those things dear to you close,good friends and family.
ex agent, check the fact first -rental bond is between 2-4 weeks. same as NZ.
Yes - because friends and family may be all you have left soon, if you are lucky.
Forgotten to take your anti-depressants today?
Australia is done and dusted , these people leaving really need to speak to Australians who arent involved in mining related industries to get the true story of the lucky country
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Up to 100,000 jobs could be slashed in the months after Christmas.
AUSTRALIA is on the brink of an unemployment catastrophe, with fears up to 100,000 jobs will be be slashed in the months after Christmas.
But the news isn't all bad, with economists suggesting the nation's wobbly economy could drive the official cash rate as low as 3.5 per cent by the end of 2012, The Daily Telegraph reported.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, one of the few economists who correctly predicted a rate cut in November, said lead indicators pointed to very weak employment growth next year.
"We would expect the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.75 over the next six months," Mr Evans warned.
"But on the flipside, the Reserve Bank would have to cut the cash rate by at least half a per cent to counter (the job losses)."
The comments come as top research firm CoreData suggested the number of unemployed people in Australia will jump by nearly 106,000 next year, assuming the labour force grows at its current rate and the unemployment rate rose to 5.75 per cent, as predicted.
CoreData boss Andrew Inwood said the problem would be felt nationwide.
"One in five Australians now think they are going to lose their jobs in the next 12 months," Mr Inwood said.
"That's particularly true in all industries outside finance and mining. Interestingly, our research has found levels of Australian confidence in the economy for the first quarter of 2012 is looking to be roughly the same as it was at the height of the global financial crisis."
According to the Herald Sun poll on this story, almost 43% of 2919 voters hold fears of losing their job in the next 12 months (as at 10.45am).
Richard Deniss, executive director of The Australia Institute last night echoed Mr Evans' views, saying mass layoffs were expected in the retail industry.
"The tourism industry and retail sector are being hit very hard by the high dollar and, while mining is booming, it doesn't employ too many people," Mr Deniss said.
"The problem is retail doesn't make a lot of money but employs a lot of people."
Mr Deniss's comments come as retail staff, including many uni students on casual shifts, have seen hours cut.
While major retailers including Myer and David Jones have had huge sales of excess stock to draw in customers, retail union national secretary Joe de Bruyn said workers rostered on for extra shifts before Christmas were having their work cancelled.
"People have been rostered on and retailers are saying 'We don't need you any more'," Mr de Bruyn, from the Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Association said yesterday.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/australia-in-the-grip-of-a-j…
PD - why is Australia done and dusted ? What needs to be done to change the trend ?
It's a sad , desolate time , when your economy is two speed ..... slow , & reverse ....... and there's another 4 years before you can getcha hands on the Webb Ellis trophy.......
...... 4 more years , dingo Deans , 4 more years , cobberdiggermate .....
mr down--- the australian work force is roughly 11.5 million---100000 is hardly catastrophic is it ?---it would take the unemployment rate to about 6 %---people have changed focus a bit--rather than buying new they,re spending money on maintenance etc---my little roof plumbing company has gone from 90% new work to 90% repairs/re roofs etc --a complete 180--- in the space of a year----the money,s there--it,s just not being wasted
SK I am in fact being positive about our amazing country. So many people are leaving or thinking of leaving and are bagging it. I do not have to leave as I have enough capital to live here without working any longer. Every country has its good and bad points. We have a low wage economy but there are some positives such as plenty of water and generally pleasant people living around all of us.
Watchout ex agent. As you stated a while back, there are thousand of un-occupied properties in Waikato - you may be the only one left!
Oh bytheway. About rental cost in Australia, with some exception to small part of Sydney, if you compare big city to big city. Rental in Melbourne and Sydney is similar to Auckland. Brisbane, Adelaide is cheaper than Auckland. I am in rental house in Brisbane near CBD and it's way cheaper than Auckland and I have checked Melbourne before deciding on Brisbane.
CM your rent will get lower as aussie house prices continue to drop. It can only get better for you. Hang on, budget and hopefully you and your family will survive over there.
I am sorry but you are contradicting yourself.. have a good xmas.
Why is it the Govn's job? and how can they do anything? If private businesses cant or wont pay the same rates as OZ then that isnt the Govn's fault to my mind.
There was an interetsing academic piece that says quite simply pay and complexity are determined by the size of the city, so inless you want to get Wellington or Auckland to 10million or the size of say Sydney the money will simply never be the same as a "real" city abroad.
Now if $ is the be all and end all move to Sydney, otherwise for myself I consider quality or life as well as pay.......which I consider I wouldnt get in say Sydney.
regards
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