90 seconds at 9 am: Dairy prices up

90 seconds at 9 am: Milk powder prices up 7.8% in Fonterra auction on US drought, Australia El Nino; NZ$ edges up to 80.7 USc; Oil up on talk Israel may attack Iran

16th Aug 12, 9:00am by Bernard Hickey

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news milk powder prices rose 7.8% in Fonterra's fortnightly internet auction overnight, taking the rise in the last month to 11.8% in the last month.

This is the fastest rise in two years and reflects the hit to global dairy product supplies from the worst US drought in 50 years and expectations an El Nino drought may hit Australia. America's feed-lot dairy farms rely on supplies of grains, which have increased sharply in price in recent months on the drought. See more here on our site.

However, the strength of the New Zealand dollar in recent months has offset much of the recent rise in prices and is unlikely to boost the expected milk payout just yet.

Fonterra set a lower payout forecast for the current season to around NZ$6/kg before retentions in late May. See more here on our site on that current payout forecast.

The New Zealand dollar edged higher on the news. It is trading around 80.7 USc in morning trade, up from around 80.5 USc late yesterday.

US and European markets were broadly flat with many players on holiday and investors awaiting more confirmation of monetary policy easings on both sides of the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, oil prices rose 1% overnight on more concern about political and military instability in the Middle East.

The conflict in Syria and fresh talk Israel may attack Iran have helped boost prices in recent days.

Bloomberg reported Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu as saying time was running out for Israel to strike Iran and that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak had warned American officials they were planning an attack before the November US presidential elections.

This has been a factor in New Zealand petrol prices edging up in recent weeks to near record highs of around NZ$2.20/litre for regular.

See more here on oil market moves here at Bloomberg.

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17 Comments

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Aug 12, 9:38am 1345066723

Went to a thought-provoking talk by Gareth Morgan last night.

Was prepared to put him on the spot, re his Antipodes pest-readication programme, versus his 'investment' needs, which are the basis of the impact.

I didn't. He's worthy of more respect than that (although the question remains).

He gets the fact that if everyone on the planet lived like they do in the USA, it'd need 7 planets, and he knows there's a land/resource grab going on. He also gets the Climate Change science, in a way that makes some of the comments hereabouts look a little silly. My comments at:

powerdownkiwi.wordpress.com/

by scarfie | 16th Aug 12, 10:03am 1345068188

Well if was really going to put his money where his mouth is, he would pull out of kiwisaver on two principles. First that the interest bearing credit based money supply is a ponzi scheme. He is an economist so he must know this. Secondly that interest is a claim on the future that can't be fulfilled. The numbers already show it.

See it really needs some of the big guns to go out on a limb.

But thanks for the review Murray.

by notaneconomist | 16th Aug 12, 11:24am 1345073060

Yep it's a land grab Hugh! Hope you read the link I had posted to you on the historical facts on NZ Govt and their land grabs.

The landowners may be left with little option but to challenge this in the Courts. Unfortunately the cost of going to court is extremely expensive so people try not to go down that avenue.

"Property Rights" are not specifically mentioned under NZBORA, however Section 28 of NZBORA does provide for existing rights and NZ is a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and Property is covered there. The fact that NZ is a signatory to the UN Declaration and has NZBORA should impose certain requirements on any Government that all legislation passed into law must guarantee those rights at all times.

I fully agree with your 1, 2, and 3 step approach People, housing and business. The trouble is most bureaucrats have never been self employed so they have no skill or knowledge of how the business group of people operate on a mental, physical and emotional capacity. This problem of a lack of knowledge and skill tends to make bureaucrats incompetent by default.

by Bernard Hickey | 16th Aug 12, 2:27pm 1345084079

Hugh,

Please keep your comments shorter and with fewer than eight (!) links.

Would be great if you could relate your comments in some way to the news/opinion article above, otherwise it just appears as hectoring spam.

cheers

Bernard

by Chris_J | 16th Aug 12, 9:41pm 1345110094

Oh Bernard,

Hugh gets a bit excited but he is doing a good job trying to bring to the attention of the general public the outrageously poor management of earthquake recovery and indeed the completely inadequate management of land and housing supply in NZ.

Current dictatorial leadership confiscating land, embarking on ruinous think big civic projects and doing nothing to solve crippling insurance non-payment issues (nor for that matter long standing leaky building issues, let alone housing supply and affordability issues) is all leading to a country with huge fundamental problems.

Ballooning Government debt, which is not being addressed at all, sky rocketing property values while builders sit idle, an exodus of NZ born citizens, and worst of all the oppression and neglect of vulnerable people being bullied by insurers and the Government itself in Christchurch.

What we need is a Government committed to create prosperity, not one giving lip service.

The nepotism, cronyism and downright socialism/communism exhibited in Christchurch by the current National government gives centre right governments more than just a bad name.

What NZ needs is prosperity. The National Party is not a party of business people, it is collection of ex bureaucrats, ex school teachers, an ex currency trader, ex house wifes and ex beneficiaries who are entirely unable to do anything but lead NZ into an abyss.

Surprisingly recent history has taught us that the Labour Party has managed to lead the country into better prosperity, possibly due to the fact that they have more success not knowing what they are doing than those that pretend to actually know what they are doing!

by iconoclast | 16th Aug 12, 10:52pm 1345114370

To Bernard and Chris_J

As an outsider looking in, permit me to offer these comments.

Whatever it takes. Do it now. Why go slow when you can go fast?

It is agonising to watch, hear, feel and imagine the pain that has befallen Christchurch. It is the second largest city in the country. It comprises the second largest segment of the population of new zealand. While nothing is done, the lives of the people affected must be on hold. People cannot live in a state of stasis. They must be able to move forward, and be able to plan their lives. Yes we here do undertstand that.

To me it is inconceivable, that a city which is the second largest contributor to new zealand society and economy has been regarded as a problem that can be left to heal by itself over time. It is also inconceivable that central government has not appreciated the magnitude of the problem and thrown the entire resources of the country at the problem to get it back on track ASAP.

Yes, WE outside Christchurch do feel it.

I respect what Hugh Pavletich is trying to do. At the beginning I was critical of many of his urbanplanning propositions. He in turn has subjected me to his ridicule and invective. The pity is I no longer read his articles. They are TOO emotive. They ramble. They repeat. They're not focused. I do not have a facebook account. His heart is in the right place, what he is doing is to be admired and respected, however

In my opinion he is going about it the wrong way.

by iconoclast | 16th Aug 12, 10:29am 1345069744

You really gotta admire the chutzpah of the israelis .. a subtle threat to the americans .. give us more walking around money .. or sitting down money .. whichever .. or we will attack iran before the presidential elections .. we'll show you who's in control .. nice if you can get it .. PS: they already get $50 billion pa in "keep yer mouth shut" jingle money aid from the US.

by scarfie | 16th Aug 12, 11:08am 1345072100

Well an attack makes sense before the election if they seek a war mongering president as an ally, but publicising the matter sure doesn't make a lot of sense from a military standpoint. Interesting though in the context of the Friedman article I linked to on Monday.

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Aug 12, 11:17am 1345072662

Empires are pretty predictable, they have to expand or die, so they expand until they die. If they can't get their hands on a resource, they have to prevent their competitors getting it.

So Iran ws always next. irrespective of the Leon Uris connection.

Has to be right after the election, surely. So any pre-empt will be paused by the White House, ultimately still the more powerful player. Unless, of course, this is a chance to off-lay blame, in a game moving too fast to wait for......

by ngakonui gold | 16th Aug 12, 11:26am 1345073169

i myself am sick of hearing about Israel and war.

do they really think that an attack on Iran won't have consequences for any body else.

the Iranian leadership are nuts and so are the Israelis.

by wtf | 16th Aug 12, 11:57am 1345075038

With you there. What is consistently never mentioned in the Western media, its taboo it seems, is Israel's 200+ nuclear weapons, their refusal to sign the non proliferation treaty, their defiance of innumerable UN resolutions with US support, their use of white phosphorus and other illegal weapons in Gaza , their determination to turn Gaza into their own version of the Warsaw ghetto. The Israeli elite are as rotten as the Iranian.

by midgetkiwi | 16th Aug 12, 2:44pm 1345085048

Interesting, thanks wtf, didn't know that they had nukes. Makes you think though... as one from an uninvolved country (NZ), do you trust the country (Israel) with the power to wipe out the neighboring enemies with nukes yet don't, or the country (Iran) that is potentially trying to develop nukes to achieve a stated aim of wiping out another country?

by Christov | 16th Aug 12, 11:59am 1345075172

Bloomberg Reported...? gees eh..

There is a lot of conflicting evidence out there on the matter of an imminent attack by Israel, although civl defence has started issuing gas masks to citizens at various outlets, they have also taken the measure of setting up a text facility to warn citizens of incoming missiles.

I don't believe the U.S. have either the stomach nor inclination for this particular drag in scenario....unless of course, it's delayed and Romney is installed, irrespective of the U.S. meddling in the middle east to protect supply, they will be forced to make a decision of the magnitude equal to WW2, the ramifications of aiding an attack by Israel will make their stints in Iraq and Afghanistan look like a walk in the park.

It will serve to undo any relationships formed in the middle east during their (occupation )..?

Zip , kaput, el gono...!

So effectively , it's a complete no win scenario for them, Israel may be wanting more idle aid from the U.S., but that is not the only source interested in paying them peace and stability money , with which no doubt Israel increases it's military strike power....insane or what..?

I guess you just get soooooo many big guns, it gets to a ponit where your fingers itch , itch real bad too, says Netanyahu

Maybe those of us who have had cause to wonder why ,China while wealthy had chosen to stockpile to excess........might be able to stop wondering.

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Aug 12, 12:02pm 1345075378

Netanyahu - what used to happen when there were a lot of fish.

by Christov | 16th Aug 12, 12:12pm 1345075947

PDK I'd feel way more comfortable if Benji took a little swim with the fishes,

The problem in living with paranoia is not getting or giving a chance to say , I told you so.

by scarfie | 16th Aug 12, 12:43pm 1345077808

An interesting thing I heard a week or so ago from a Christian Iranian (apparently :-P) that is a citizen here. Relatives back in Iran are also in expectation of war before Christmas. I hope not but it almost seems fait accompli. It does seem the logical next move in terms of geo politics/economics with just the timing in question.

by Christov | 16th Aug 12, 1:22pm 1345080164

Yes scarfie they come in all sizes , we played host to a Christian Iranian refugee family many years back now......they felt that way then (I mean imminent war)...lovely people they were too...moved to Wgtn in the longer run as there is quite a large community of them in Wellywind.....