Roy Morgan Research poll finds high levels of optimism about 2018, led by young, female Aucklanders. Those over 65 are least optimistic

Roy Morgan Research poll finds high levels of optimism about 2018, led by young, female Aucklanders. Those over 65 are least optimistic

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

A special Roy Morgan New Zealand SMS Survey taken in mid-November shows 53% of New Zealanders think 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, compared to only 26% that say 2018 will be ‘worse’ and a further 21% expect 2018 will be ‘the same’ as 2017.

Although the 53% of New Zealanders saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 is lower than the last time this survey was conducted in 2009 when a record high 73% of New Zealanders expected a ‘better’ year following a sharp recession in NZ, New Zealanders are far more optimistic about 2018 than their Australian counterparts. Only 31% of Australians expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. 

Driving the positive result are supporters of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and the Labour-NZ First-Greens Government she leads.

74% of Labour supporters, 67% of NZ First supporters and an even higher 82% of Greens supporters expect 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters – further details below.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - November 2017

Source: Roy Morgan telephone & SMS surveys in New Zealand 1989-2017 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

Next Year – Better or Worse? (New Zealand)

“As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

  1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995* 1996* 1997* 1998 1999
  % % % % % % % % % % %
Better 56 41 33 46 46 61 n/a n/a n/a 62 56
Same 16 17 29 34 42 27 n/a n/a n/a 22 34
Worse 28 42 38 20 12 12 n/a n/a n/a 16 10
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*This survey wasn’t conducted between 1995-1997.

  2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2017
  % % % % % % % % % % %
Better 62 65 63 59 60 59 65 57 44 73 53
Same< 32 24 23 27 27 22 22 24 16 12 21
Worse 6 11 14 14 13 19 13 19 40 15 26
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Age & Gender - November 2017
Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.

In contrast to Australia, it is women in New Zealand who are more optimistic than men with 58% of women expecting a ‘better’ 2018 than 2017 compared to 48% of men.

Analysing the results by age shows those aged under 50 are all very confident about 2018 including 58% of 18-24yr olds, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds that expect 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 51% of 50-64yr olds and 45% of those aged 65+.

  Total
NZ
Gender Age (Total
Aust.)
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
  % % % % % % % % %
Better 53 48 58 58 56 57 51 45 31
Same 21 22 20 21 22 18 21 26 39
Worse 26 30 22 21 22 25 28 29 30
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Region – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Roy Morgan New Zealand - Next Year 'Better' or 'Worse' - Analysis by Region - November 2017

Source: This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in mid-November with a cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing by region shows little difference across New Zealand with slight majorities in each region saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 and around a quarter of respondents in each region saying 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.

Nevertheless, New Zealand’s most optimistic region is New Zealand’s biggest city of Auckland in which 55% of respondents say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 followed by 54% of respondents in Canterbury and 53% of respondents in the capital Wellington.

    Region (Total
Aust)
  Total
    NZ    
Auckland Wellington Other
North Island
Canterbury Other
South Island
  % % % % % % %
Better 53 55 53 50 54 53 31
Same 21 20 19 22 22 26 39
Worse 26 25 28 28 24 21 30
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Voting Intention – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Analysing the results by voting intention shows it is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that are most optimistic about 2018 with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters expecting 2018 to be ‘better’ than 2017. However, only 30% of National supporters expect 2018 to be ‘better’ while 43% of National supporters say 2018 will be ‘worse’ than 2017.

  Total
    NZ    
Electors Labour National NZ First Greens Other Can’t
say
Non
electors
(Total
Aust)
  % % % % % % % % % %
Better 53 53 74 30 67 82 42 27 59 31
Same 21 22 18 27 17 14 18 49 13 39
Worse 26 25 8 43 16 4 40 24 28 30
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A majority of 53% of New Zealanders say 2018 will be a ‘better’ year than 2017 compared to only 26% that say it will be ‘worse’ and this optimism has clearly been driven by the recent election victory of new Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

“It is supporters of the new Labour-New Zealand First-Greens Government that have a very optimistic view of next year with 74% of Labour supporters, 67% of New Zealand First supporters and 82% of Greens supporters saying 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to only 30% of National supporters.

“In addition, a striking majority of 58% of women believer 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 compared to 48% of men while a majority of all age groups under 65 also believe 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017 including 58% of 18-24yr old, 56% of 25-34yr olds and 57% of 35-49yr olds.

“Comparing sentiment in New Zealand to their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia shows New Zealanders are far more optimistic than Australians – only 31% of Australians say 2018 will be ‘better’ than 2017, a record low result for the survey first conducted in 1980.”


This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,233 New Zealanders on November 15-20, 2017. They were asked “Do you think that 2018 will be better, worse, or the same as 2017?”

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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Nothing wrong with a bit of healthy optimism.

TTP

The gender binarism displayed in this article is frankly quite disturbing.

Yes it's good to see that our new Prime Minister and government is very pro active and working for the NZ people and residents rather than just selling them out to the highest bidder. Where as National just supported their false economy, forcing the rest of us in to more and more debt.