Have your say: Should former National leader and RBNZ Governor Don Brash take over leadership of the Act Party?

Should Act hand over the leadership to former National leader and RBNZ Governor Don Brash?

Former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash has publicly stated his desire to lead the ACT Party into the November 26 general election, saying current leader Rodney Hide's deteriorating image has damaged the party's chances of re-entering Parliament.

Brash is asking to speak at an ACT Party board meeting on Saturday about the party's leadership, and has reportedly been phoning ACT MPs, whose support he needs for a leadership challenge. 

However Brash is still a member of the National Party, which he led to a narrow election defeat in 2005, before stepping aside for current Prime Minister John Key.

There is speculation Brash will want former Auckland Mayor John Banks to stand in Epsom if he became leader, although Brash has not ruled out standing there himself.

If denied the ACT leadership, Brash would start his own right-wing party, which he says would bleed the ACT vote dry.

Coalition prospects

Prime Minister John Key would not rule out working with a Brash-led ACT or a new right-wing party formed by Brash. See more here at Stuff.

Key told Tracy Watkins National was not concerned about a splitting of the 'right' vote:

"From National's perspective we are in a different space. We very much see ourselves as a centre-right party. We are not a political party that follows an extreme right wing doctrine. Whether that's in the form of a new political party, that's a matter for whatever that party might be called and their leader."

"On a number of the issues we are in agreement in terms of tackling those issues. Where there is disagreement is in terms of the prescription and the extremity of the positions that are adopted.

"No-one is arguing that we don't need to address issues like, for instance, student loans. He would want to put interest back on student loans, I don't. I'm more than happy to address the eligibility rules.

"I don't think there is massive disagreement on the issue, and certainly there's agreement in that we want to lift the economic performance of New Zealand. My view is that you actually have to take the public with you and very extreme positions ultimately are more likely to disenfranchise the public. I'd rather build a consensus."

And in case anyone was wondering, the Labour Party would not work with Don Brash. A spokeswoman sent me this:

Yes Labour would rule out working with Don Brash whether it’s with ACT or another party of a similar form.  Labour does not share his policy views and values.

I have also asked the Maori Party whether they would enter into a coalition with National again if National were to enter into a coalition with Brash as well. Both the Maori Party and Act have confidence and supply agreements with National currently. The Maori Party has in the past said it would work with anyone if they thought being in government would let them help their own people.

UPDATE: here is the response I received from the Maori Party:

"The Maori Party will go neither left or right, we are a party which is determined to go forward in the best interests of our people. Our votes are driven by our kaupapa – we assess whether the legislation defends Maori rights and advances Maori interests for the benefit of the nation. As always, any decisions to be made about coalition partners, are decisions that we would seek advice from our membership on."

Your views: Should Act give Brash the leadership?

Has Rodney Hide's image been ruined enough that ACT needs a leadership change?

Would Don Brash do any better for ACT's chances of re-entering Parliament?

Or should Brash set up his own party on the right to capture the ACT vote, and perhaps votes from a disatisfied right-wing of National?

And what effects would a Brash-led ACT have on National's chances of getting back into power if they can't govern alone? Would the Maori Party work with a National Party that was also working with an ACT Party led by Brash (...think Orewa speeches)?

iPredict reaction

Meanwhile, there have been some big movements in Don Brash and ACT related stocks on iPredict over the last few days - current chances are as at 11:45am on Tuesday morning.

The contract for a new right-wing party, of which Brash is a publicly-declared member, to be registered for the November 26 election has jumped from a 13% chance to 61% in one day (it went as high as 74%).

The contract for Rodney Hide to depart as ACT leader before the election jumped over the weekend from a 19% chance to as high as 63%, and now sits at 45%.

Meanwhile, the contract for neither National nor Rodney Hide (as a National or ACT candidate) to win Epsom jumped as well, with speculation either Brash or Banks might stand for a new right-wing party there. From around 4% before the weekend, that contract jumped to as high as 36% over the weekend, and currently sits around 26%.

(Updated with Maori Party reaction, Key quotes, iPredict movements, PM Key's stance, Labour comment, paragraph on Maori Party)