Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 1 pm in association with NZ Mint.
I welcome your additions in the comments below or via email tobernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.
I'll pop the extras into the comment stream. See all previous Top 10s here.
My must read today is #9 from Jon Morgan, who has slammed dairy's performance on our waterways.
1. Infighting in China? - Gordon Chang writes at Forbes that there may be more than meets the eye to the latest drama in China's political leadership.
The sacking of Bo Xilai as Mayor of Chongqing last week was sensational.
Now Chang reckons the battle is far from over.
And he suggests the military may be called on to adjudicate on any factional splits.
He even uses the coup word.
Plenty to see here. Don't move along now.
We were told that the upcoming transfer of power, from the so-called Fourth Generation leaders to the Fifth, would be “smooth” and uneventful. They were wrong. For one thing, Bo is still holding on to his seats on the Central Committee and the Politburo, giving him the opportunity to fight back. And at the height of the crisis in Chengdu, he ran to the 14th Group Army in Kunming, in Yunnan province. Bo’s move is widely seen as an attempt to get the military involved on his side in this ever-widening struggle.
In this environment, it is not surprising that in the last few months there have been rumors of coups, all of them fascinating, none of them confirmable. But we have to remember that people do not talk of military takeovers when a regime is stable. And people are gossiping now because they know how powerful the military has become.
That’s undoubtedly why Hu Jintao issued a warning of his own on Monday. In Beijing, he reminded military officers that the People’s Army was subordinate to the Party. As a retired senior colonel said to the South China Morning Post, recent comments from flag officers have “undermined the absolute leadership of the Communist Party.”
Here's more from Chang in January on coup talk.
2. The media turns on Australian property - Leith van Onselen from Macrobusiness highlights the way the Australian media has turned from being property bulls to property bears over the last year or so.
He points to this piece on A Current Affair (A bit like Close Up or Campbell Live) about Australian property.
3. Frack off - Peter Griffin writes at Sciblogs there's a need for an independent investigation into fracking in New Zealand.
The time would seem to be ripe for a robust and independent investigation into fracking.There is a hodgepodge of anecdotal accounts, randomly referenced studies, claims and counterclaims about fracking, doing the rounds in the media. There will be much more in the coming months. We need an independent view on this to cut through the confusion.
That’s also the view of New Plymouth mayor Harry Duynhoven. Despite the wealth oil and gas companies generate for his region, he told 60 Minutes that it was time for an independent inquiry. It is the only thing that is really going to give those communities in areas where fracking is used or is planned for, some certainty one way or other about the safety of it.
4. She wears the pants - The Telegraph's Alex Spillius reports that the First Lady of Syria thinks she really runs the country. Fair enough.
Mrs Assad’s “dictator” comment was made partly in jest during an exchange with a friend about how much attention spouses typically pay to each other.
“As for listening – I am the REAL dictator, he has no choice ...” she wrote on Dec 14. Her use of the word in reference to her husband suggests she understands how others regard him.
5. The new threat - The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports the IMF's Christine Lagarde is warning the recent spike in the oil price could derail any global economic recovery.
“Optimism must not lull us into a false sense of security. The global economy may be on a path to recovery, but there is not a great deal of room for manoeuvre and no room for policy mistakes.” The warning came after Brent crude reached $126 a barrel last week, hitting all-time highs in euros and sterling. The US and Britain have agreed in principle to release supplies from their strategic reserves if necessary, but so far no decision has been taken on this.
The bilateral accord did little to soothe jittery markets. Traders saw it as a signal that Washington is moving closer to a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Bank of America said the latest oil spike is nearing the pain barrier. It has pushed energy costs to almost 9pc of global GDP, a trigger for world recessions over the past 40 years. “For 2012, we believe the global economy cannot afford oil prices above $130,” the bank said.
6. Portugal is the new Greece - Ambrose also points to comments from PIMCO's Mohamed El Irian that Portugal will be the next of the PIIGS to need a bailout.
“Unfortunately, that is how it will be. It will make the financial markets nervous because they are worried about a participation of the private sector,” he told Der Spiegel over the weekend.
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble insists that Greece is a “completely unique case” and that there will be no further haircuts for banks, insurers and pension funds holding eurozone sovereign bonds.
However, the EU authorities broke their pledges so many times during the Greek saga that market faith has been shattered. Even Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has expressed disgust, signalling that it will give Club Med debt a wide birth from now on. It has already sold half its Spanish bonds.
7. America's not very credible stress tests - Jonathan Weil has written a tough piece at Bloomberg arguing the US Federal Reserve's stress tests on its banks weren't very convincing.
The results of the Fed’s “comprehensive capital analysis” are more about public relations and manufacturing confidence than they are about disseminating reliable information on banks’ health. Citigroup Inc. (C) was deemed well capitalized under the government’s methodology when it got bailed out in 2008. So was CIT Group Inc. when it filed for bankruptcy in 2009.
How stressful were the Fed’s tests? One anecdote stands apart: Regions Financial Corp. (RF), which still hasn’t paid back its bailout money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program, passed.
The footnotes to the company’s latest financial statements tell the story. There, the Birmingham, Alabama-based lender disclosed that the loans on its books were worth $8.1 billion less than what its balance sheet said, as of Dec. 31. By comparison, the company’s tangible common equity, a bare-bones measure of net worth, was $7.6 billion.
So if it weren’t for the inflated loan values, Regions’ tangible common equity would have been less than zero, with liabilities exceeding hard assets. In short, the test was a joke, although it had its intended effect. Shares of Regions and other large banks soared, and Regions raised $900 million selling common shares on Wednesday. The company, which hasn’t reported an annual profit since 2007, plans to use the money to help repay the $3.5 billion it got from the Treasury Department in 2008.
8. Rout in US Treasuries market - Keep an eye on this. Long term interest rates have risen sharply since the middle of last week. Here's Bloomberg's analysis of the jump.
“For a very long time, the market dynamics in interest rates have been overwhelmed by Fed monetary policy,” said Jeffrey Rosenberg, chief investment strategist for fixed-income at New York-based BlackRock Inc., the world’s biggest money manager which oversees $3.5 trillion. “Has the big inflection point been reached?”
“Global bond markets have enjoyed a three decade long bull rally,” UBS AG currency strategists led by Mansoor Mohi-Uddin in Singapore said in a report to clients on March 16. “But this era is now set to end.”
9. 'Reckless use of nitrogen' - Dominion Post Farming Editor Jon Morgan has some tough things to say about dairying and nitrogen use.
Some disturbing facts have come to light following my call last week for fewer cows on sensitive dairying land. They show an industry which is doing little to curb the reckless use of nitrogen.
I don't think the industry is doing enough. Fonterra has made fencing of all farm waterways a condition of supply from the end of this season. That's good, but, at the least, riparian strips are also needed. Better still would be the reduction of cow numbers on sensitive, porous soils. If the industry won't do this, then regulations are needed.
10. Totally Jon Stewart on Bashar Al Assad's hacked emails.And Larry King's moobs...
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