February saw the lowest number of house sales in a February month since 1981, CoreLogic says

Property / news

Worst housing sales volume slump in 40 years as CoreLogic records the lowest February sales since 1981

23rd Mar 23, 12:01am by Greg Ninness

The housing market is having its biggest sales volume slump in 40 years, according to property data company CoreLogic.

The company recorded 60,859* residential property sales in the 12 months to the end of February, the lowest number in any 12 month period since October 1983.

In the month of February CoreLogic recorded 4100 sales, the lowest number for the month of February since 1981.

CoreLogic NZ Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson said the figures were striking and showed just how quiet the market really was.

"Few vendors are in a hurry to sell, given that unemployment remains low," he said.

"And those buyers who have secured finance know that they can take their time too, with listings abundant and prices falling.

"This is a recipe for low levels of sales," he said.

There were also signs that first home buyers could be beginning to retreat from the market.

"There may now just be signs of their interest rate limits being reached," Davidson said.

"Of course, it may also be that they've actively pulled back while they wait for prices to fall further.

"Either way, their share of purchases edged lower in February so it's definitely something to watch," he said.

However it was possible that recent falls in property prices could bottom out later this year.

" A key part of that will be the labour market," Davidson said.

"If employment can stay high with unemployment only rising because of a larger labour force, this should insulate property values to some degree.

"But outright job losses would be a fresh headwind for the housing market," he said.

*Note: CoreLogic gathers sales data at the time a Sale & Purchase Agreement is signed and this data includes conditional sales.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

You can have articles like this delivered directly to your inbox via our free Property Newsletter. We send it out 3-5 times a week with all of our property-related news, including auction results, interest rate movements and market commentary and analysis. To start receiving them, register here (it's free) and when approved you can select any of our free email newsletters.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

114 Comments

by Dgm | 23rd Mar 23, 6:51am 1679507485

When unrealistic vendors reach earth, this metric will change...

by Pa1nter | 23rd Mar 23, 7:00am 1679508015

The overall issue is economic confidence, not price.

The discounting required to overcome that is likely something only the desperate are going to entertain.

by GV 27 | 23rd Mar 23, 7:08am 1679508489

I mean being reasonable about your pricing is a good start. We shifted ours pretty quickly, but we didn't go into it expecting 2021 money so I can see why it might be a shock to some people if they're still wedded to peak values.

We priced it according to how fast we needed it sold and got the result we needed.

by IT GUY | 23rd Mar 23, 7:08am 1679508513

Perhaps it has something to do with the amount banks will lend as well.......

by Pa1nter | 23rd Mar 23, 7:16am 1679509018

Yep. There's a whole bunch of factors going on.

by DavidJ | 23rd Mar 23, 8:56am 1679514975

nope - would suggest they are related to the actual over pricing .. if they are the right price they will sell surely

by Pa1nter | 23rd Mar 23, 10:12am 1679519572

While everything ultimately has a price, I think the pool of buyers has shrunk considerably. So the sort of discounting required to generate new buyers would need to be significant.

by Averageman | 23rd Mar 23, 10:44am 1679521488

Agreed. Its not that people don't want to by, its that the bank requirements have lowered access significantly. They are effectively setting a new price ceiling that is much lower than those seen during the panicked stupidity of Covid.

by LFCYNWA | 23rd Mar 23, 5:25pm 1679545525

Many non bank lenders have shifted to 20% deposits too...

by SND | 23rd Mar 23, 8:57am 1679515024

Issue is clearly price, after what I thought was a reality check end of 2022 I now see (since the beginning of the year) most houses in the suburbs I target are advertised at 100 or 200k over peak value.

by polygonalvector | 23rd Mar 23, 9:49am 1679518152

We're still in the period where folks are trying their luck - everyone seems to think that their property is the one that will buck market trends and sell for above RV.

Sure there are a low percentage of properties like that, but the default pricing for folks seems to still be RV+ when a more realistic starting point would be RV- (insert your region's average price decline value here).

Folk aren't being forced to sell at present - selling is still a 'want-to-sell' in most cases (not all - there are always unfortunate changes in circumstances to take into account) - hence the stalemate. If you're still able to service your mortgage (however uncomfortable that is becoming) then you can always pull your property from the market and wait.

The risk you're running though is when the job market falters - and a growing percentage of people are then unable to service the ever increasing mortgage payment - and a growing percentage of sales become 'need-to-sell' - the glut of people also trying to sell will swamp the market and your chances of selling at all are vastly reduced - you're then part of the avalanche shifting downward and worst comes to worst, the bank comes calling and forces the sale.

by franklin-de-weldt | 29th Mar 23, 9:21am 1680034902

In my neighbourhood, the average selling price has dropped 8% -- which makes the average house still selling wayyyy above RV. From reading the comments on this site, it's like a different universe from Canterbury

by Chaosinflesh | 23rd Mar 23, 10:18am 1679519910

Yup, more than 10 houses on my ~100 house street have sold in the last 8 months - but the 2 bed granny flat sitting on cross-lease asking 1.2M is still unsold...

by Sluggy | 23rd Mar 23, 9:33am 1679517207

Its only discounting if the initial price was anywhere near what the actual value was. Id suggest that the starting pricing is massively inflated. Briscoes could offer good advice in this arena.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 7:07am 1679508431

Diwn less than a quarter than boom times, 81256. Im sorry Mr REA you can only have 75 percent of that pie

by IT GUY | 23rd Mar 23, 7:13am 1679508808

Lowest in 40 years....... https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/486522/housing-market-sees-biggest-…; So Tony the comb first home buyers are pulling back..... mmmm well at least they are having to issue tickets for open homes and run traffic management plans.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 8:06am 1679511983

Clearly we were busy little kiwis in 1983, sold nearly 20 houses per 1000 head. While Boom times 2021 sold less than 16

To be fair the number of home sales has been falling over the long term

Maybe someone can find that data and share it thanks.

by murray86 | 23rd Mar 23, 8:17am 1679512666

More people could afford them in 1983. Not the case now.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 8:30am 1679513417

The measure is the affordability index

by yeahrightmate | 23rd Mar 23, 8:59am 1679515144

...like 2-3x average income vs 9-10 these days

by Pragmatist | 23rd Mar 23, 5:06pm 1679544379

Would be interesting to know what % of the house sales in 1983 were backed by cheap Housing Corp loans. Mums house was, from what I can make out the loan was at 1/3 the market interest rate for a first mortgage, and inflation was high, both wages (until the wage freeze was imposed) and CPI inflation. So the loan was at a negative real interest rate, and not only by a small amount.

by Nzdan | 24th Mar 23, 12:05am 1679569547

Capitalize the family benefit for a deposit too? Bootstraps etc.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 6:54am 1679507697

The perfect storm for the housing market - unemployment will be up (has to be to stop inflation via wage rises) and it wont just be because there are students unable to find work .. plus the whole RE and building industry will have nothing to do soon, owner occupiers and landlords will increasingly decide to sell (even those lucky enough to have employment will struggle with high mortgages and inflation - if left for too long) and at the same time next year there are more new houses coming online.

FHB definitely and rightly arent keen at the moment (imagine bbq convos with their mates who bought in the last couple years and are sitting on huge losses and massive interest repayments now). investors are def out for now. Doesnt leave many buyers.

Opportunities a plenty outside of property.

by K.W. | 23rd Mar 23, 10:16am 1679519786

I actually know quite a few people who have lost their job lately, all well paid professionals. It seems all those layoffs by international companies like Amazon and Google are being targeted at their international work force first, so lots of layoffs in NZ, Australia and Hong Kong.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 11:12am 1679523144

Yes - though its hard to tell the real reason for layoffs at the moment. A lot of companies are using the percieved risk of a downturn to restructure their business rapidly - rather than an actual downturn causing any revenue or profit hits.

The warehouse layoff news today was an example - layoffs to restructure due to supply chain, weather and acquisition efficiency issues - not based on an actual market downturn. I guess it also positions the business in case of an actual issue.

by Chaosinflesh | 23rd Mar 23, 6:58am 1679507881

If employment can stay high with unemployment only rising because of a larger labour force, this should insulate property values to some degree

Interesting statement. What's causing our labour force to get larger? If it's immigration, then surely these migrants are coming in to work, not be unemployed, which would further reduce the unemployed statistic... because surely Kiwi employers aren't laying of NZ staff to employ migrants, right?

A lot of hopium in his arguments today.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 7:21am 1679509304

This government and their ministries are clueless. Opened the immigration gates late last year, presumably because they were being lobbied by business. A lot of people came in for work in building, trades and hospo (chefs, cooks etc) just as those sectors are about to slump.

Good old government, always a few steps behind.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 9:33am 1679517201

In a slump it tends to be the recent graduates and students that swell the unemployed figures each yr.

I remember graduating in UK in a downturn.. there were so many quality experienced people being made redundant and so few vacancies.. employers had huge choice. hardly any of us got jobs for a few years. I have thus noticed it happen each time there is a downturn (gets to be a significant amount of people each new year)

by K.W. | 23rd Mar 23, 10:19am 1679519974

Why would an employer hire a Kiwi when they can get a migrant for half the price? And a cash kickback under the table for the "cost of the visa sponsorship".

by singautim | 23rd Mar 23, 12:00pm 1679526014

When I worked in Papua New Guinea the cost of the work visa (valid for 3 years?) was equivalent to the annual salary for two teachers. On top of that my income tax was at 48%. Absolutely no chance of getting residency except by marrying a local. The large international companies seriously invested in training locals; some of the dubious foreign owned companies still found it worthwhile to employ foreigners especially bookkeepers and accountants. There is not much that we can learn from the govt of PNG but their immigration policy was better than ours.

by dumbthoughts | 23rd Mar 23, 7:03am 1679508231

I've joked about it before, but my in-laws (who are the nicest people you'll ever meet, and I get on very well with them so this does not come from a position of negativity) are an "inverse measure" of the immediate future of the property market.

For example, they managed to borrow against their main residence to buy an investment property about a week before interest rates started rising and the market started declining. They literally bought the peak and are well underwater on this one.

Some years ago they managed to buy another IP, which - and I cannot work out how they managed this - was sold at a loss. Imagine having lost money on an IP in the period between the GFC and Covid!

Whatever they do in property, do the opposite and you cannot go far wrong.

With that in mind, guess who has just purchased another property in Wellington (they are going to be splitting their time between South Island & Wellington for work and family reasons)? They've taken all the savings/non-property investments they've ever had and put it all on Wellington property, because "the market has already dropped 20% so it can only go up from here".

There's every chance they have just caught a falling knife, and a large one at that. As I said, lovely people who do a lot for my wife and I and the other family, but with a reverse-Midas touch in the property market.

by HSL | 23rd Mar 23, 7:13am 1679508817

Possibly catching a falling knife but with inflation eroding any other investments land may not be such a bad idea. Another issue is the potential for a wealth tax. If you are leveraged this will be reduced, avoided - this is common in countries with wealth taxes. If you have investments not so. Rent is still tied to a costs so I would expect….and am seeing rents rise with inflation. Still glad to be a home owner, for renters life must be pretty bad. Bottom line is, at least a rental has earning potential. I still think nz is a poor place to invest, as too much political risk but hey could be wrong too.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 7:25am 1679509544

Luckily for them there may not be too much further to fall in Wellington, maybe another 5% more?

Wellington crashed early.

It’s more the time for regional areas to slump further.

I think Auckland has another 5% to fall too, maybe a bit more

by Baywatch | 23rd Mar 23, 7:39am 1679510378

Students are now bypassing Wellington for Christchurch, having visited both recently can see why. Welly will continue to decrease, probably another 10%.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 8:30am 1679513420

Welly (my hometown) is feeling a bit run down that’s for sure. And some of the rental grovels there are horrid, and not cheap…

by Juzz | 23rd Mar 23, 9:55am 1679518508

I suspect Welly and Auckland will decline a little while the rest of the country and surrounding areas catch up. After that steeper declines for all

by Chaosinflesh | 23rd Mar 23, 8:36am 1679513781

Just because it's fallen the furthest so far, doesn't mean it's fall has stopped. Want to give a reasoned basis for your 5% prediction? As the regions slump, Wellington will slump further, because it will continue to bleed people to the cheaper regions, much as Auckland is.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 8:52am 1679514736

It’s not a firm prediction ‘maybe another 5% more?’

Wellington has the highest incomes in the country, If prices fall another 5% (and assuming mortgage rates don’t go much higher) prices will reach a point that they start to become far more ‘doable’ for more people. Some demand will start to return.

Note - I am not calling an uptick in prices. A further fall followed by flatness for a while.

by yeahrightmate | 23rd Mar 23, 9:03am 1679515384

So HM what's your pick for the floor in this correction then? 5-10% above pre-covid (still highly unaffordable) or something in the 2019-2020 range. If the latter, then don't we have another 15-20% further to fall yet?

by Happy_Medium | 23rd Mar 23, 9:14am 1679516067

Another factor for Welly is that there were a huge number of rentals on the market in Jan/Feb largely marketed towards students, and they were all asking for at least $250 per room/ week. My search area showed a peak of ~110 rentals available which is now around 74 rentals still on the market after the students should have hopefully already found a place to live. Reckon people who can work remotely won’t move to Welly if it’s cheaper outside the city, and my feeling is that there’s a net migration out of Welly. If these rentals don’t find tenants, some could be on the market later this year.

All in all, agreed Welly has further to fall.

by K.W. | 23rd Mar 23, 10:24am 1679520241

If NACT get in then you can expect a large broom to be sweeping a lot of over paid Govt consultant hangers on out of the Wellington halls where they currently wander around at $500 an hour. They won't find a job in the private sector that pays them anywhere near the ridiculous amount that Labour pays consultants to deliver their predetermined outcomes.

by Whatwillhappen | 23rd Mar 23, 11:15am 1679523326

The last 25 years has shown that the opposition of any stripe is radical in opposition, conservative in government. The consultants will stay.

by Esprit | 23rd Mar 23, 11:47am 1679525251

Some undoubtedly will, but it's ludicrous to suggest that they'll be as profligate under a Nat/ACT coalition than they are currently... especially given the increased power ACT will wield under a likely coalition than has hitherto been.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 12:20pm 1679527226

Oh sure and I have mentioned that before. However it’s no done thing that NACT will win, and even if they do it could be at least a year after the election that meaningful restructuring has been implemented.

And I am still a bit skeptical on far they would really go.

by huttman | 23rd Mar 23, 9:14am 1679516066

Wellington prices has bottomed to long term trend, and the sales volumes also stablized.

But I agree, when most people are agreeing on something, it is usually the opposite. And some people do tend to make wrong judgement calls all the time.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 9:35am 1679517332

Just wait til local and national government start cutting heads as they realise they are way over committed. Will be aftet the election but Wellington has barely scratched the surface of the drop yet.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 9:39am 1679517566

Bottomed ...my arse!

Just wait

by huttman | 23rd Mar 23, 11:02am 1679522566

oh well, only you have pretty bottom I'll consider your proposal.

by starrider | 23rd Mar 23, 11:01am 1679522512

Please let me know when they finally list and sell! As they are probably the best yardstick for when someone should look to buy.

by dumbthoughts | 23rd Mar 23, 1:50pm 1679532612

I'll write to our esteemed editors on this site and ask if I could have one of those guest contribution slots!

by Yvil | 23rd Mar 23, 3:22pm 1679538129

dumbthoughts, have you asked yourself who has done better in life, financially speaking, your in-laws or your own parents? I hope you can answer this question honestly?

by Averageman | 23rd Mar 23, 11:46am 1679525168

Sellers are still in dreamland. The covid hump in price, which was artificially inflated with cheap money and panic, is being unwound. Sellers still hiding on cheap debt rates have their head in the sand, oblivious. Until they roll off that rate...

Sector clippers must be really feeling it.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 11:37am 1679524634

Correct 👍. The elephant in the room is inflation going up and employment going down.

Spending is down✔️

Businesses are closing✔️

Construction is falling✔️

So.. unemployment will rise✔️

thus Inflation rising✔️

Exports declining,✔️

Imports rising✔️

Milk prices declining ✔️

Govt spend up✔️

Debt up✔️

OCR up✔️

Pre election spend will decline ✔️

Crash✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️✔️

by False economies | 23rd Mar 23, 7:21am 1679509281

And in 1983 the population was only 3.2 million.

by JamesM | 23rd Mar 23, 9:15am 1679516105

Was just wondering that. So approx 60% of today’s population. Starting to think 2024 could be a year of rate cuts.

by Whatwillhappen | 23rd Mar 23, 11:18am 1679523517

Dream on. Rates aren't linked to house prices in the way you think they are. Local governments need $x from rates, so divide by RV to get the proportionate contribution from a property. If house prices go down, the local government will still need $x to run things (or $x+7%), and only by a suburb tanking by more than average will rates in that suburb be proportionately lower.

by malamah | 23rd Mar 23, 7:27am 1679509624

Since we’re doing this these days, this post aged well.

by HW2 | 22nd Mar 23, 10:49am

These numbers show why there is so many sales occurring for fhb even in this slow market.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 8:15am 1679512552

I dont get it

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Mar 23, 9:08am 1679515680

Exactly....

by IT GUY | 23rd Mar 23, 9:11am 1679515881

That much has been clear to many here for some time, relentlessly calling a bottom every month.

The idea is to buy low and sell high

But you have not learnt this Cube yet.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 9:40am 1679517646

Timing is everything... Sooo we wait!

The bottom will be realized when the prices start rising... So we buy!

💥✔️💥✔️💥✔️💥✔️

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Mar 23, 9:39am 1679517567

"The bottom will be realized when the prices start rising... So we buy!" Hemi, I think if sales volumes start increasing with slowing price falls, a bottom may not be far off. At the moment, falls are accelerating and sales volumes are still falling. This landing is likely to be very different. It will be more likened to an "L" shaped landing as many will be under water with interest rates remaining elevated along with borrowing rates - a new normal. Many will think twice about speculating on "get rich quick" house price gains as feeding the family, coping with transportation costs and keeping the lights on will remain a challenge for many. Inflation is a killer.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 9:40am 1679517613

The problem is that the last decent downturn was too long ago for many of those under 40 to have experienced and its for the older generation to remember.

We are now all so used to the government fixing things quickly after the GFC and during the pandemic people reach for their wallet every time they hear another house was sold.

Its more probable than not that this one will be the long big reset/recession that we tried to put off for too long and because of that lack the tools to prevent it.

IF they do prevent it briefly by pausing interest rates or whatever.. it simply means the eventual downturn will be sharp and really nasty.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 10:45am 1679521503

Typically yes. Not this time. Its up 1 down 3,4,5...

Just watch!

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 9:44am 1679517847

Don't worry IT GUY I proved I beat THE CUBE.

Go back to august 2019 and see I was on the right path, I sent the screenshot last night. Housemouse could only see then, that lower interest rates spelled disaster and a desperate attempt by the RB but housemouse did not fit all of the pieces together.

He finally made the right call in late 2019, but is now 50 years old. He will probably beg to differ and tell me that he is actually 51 or 49.. just so that he can say that I am wrong.

"IT GUY you have 3 lives remaining"

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Mar 23, 10:02am 1679518931

While this Medicine Man preaches his potions, precious equity bleeds.

by MikeM | 23rd Mar 23, 7:35am 1679510127

What makes this all the worse is that the housing stock is probably twice the number it was back in 1981.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 8:09am 1679512198

From the interesting file. Starting 1980 to 1990 house prices went up 4-fold. AND. Interest rates were rising

But BOTH housemouse and independent-observer says that cant happen

As the game changes you MUST adapt your strategy Housemouse if you want to win. Do you have what it takes to beat THE CUBE

by Chaosinflesh | 23rd Mar 23, 8:25am 1679513158

It has been noted in academic literature than in NZ during the 80s, the share of wealth grew in capital more than wages, but the average wage in NZ went from $157/week in 1979 to $529/week in 1989 - more than tripling.

So house prices increased, but only minorly more than people's ability to pay the purchase price, which was still low enough by DTI for the interest rates (which yes, did hurt) to not have the overbearing effect they have today.

by Dale Smith | 23rd Mar 23, 12:06pm 1679526400

Yes, it was only from about 1993 onwards that the 3x median household income ratio started to climb.

This is what many people seem unable to understand, ie it's the relative difference between what we earn and the price of housing that is important. Not any absolute individual comparison between income and house prices from any one year or decade to the next.

That is why the median multiple is such a good indicator, especially on house price as it is the price of housing (land in particular) that is one of the main determinants of how much you need to be paid.

If housing was closer to 3 x median income, would the teachers, and previously the nurses, be needing to strike as they are doing?

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 1:41pm 1679532061

The level of home-ownership surprisingly only got to 3 out of 4 households in about 1990. Before then 2 thirds. In the 1940s it was one in two households rented. Those figures don't show a resounding urge to own ones own home.

by Averageman | 23rd Mar 23, 7:47am 1679510840

Speculators will keep putting the rent up justified only in their own mind. Govt will keep buying houses for people in need, and educated youth will keep exiting for Aussie.

Must be time to bring in Debt to Income limits.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 9:42am 1679517738

Aussie face their own day of reckoning. Forging a nuclear partbership with the west whilst making most their money shipping natural resources to china is a fine balance to maintain. If the proverbial hits the fan between USA and china i hope aus has a back up plan.

by ngakonui gold | 23rd Mar 23, 1:15pm 1679530510

Were you hoping that they would forge a nuclear deal with China?

by OldSkoolEconomics | 23rd Mar 23, 2:22pm 1679534567

Haha - now that would have taken everyone by surprise.

But in a rational world it would probably be a more sane decision than spending half my annual revenue on weapons of mass destruction and gleefully telling people i will be pointing them at my biggest customer.

PS - I am not in any way advocating it would be great for anyone to back chinas crazy dictatorship... its just a very strange strategy (like us) to have and be building their biggest trading relationship with their main allies biggest enemy.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 11:01am 1679522463

Justified by rate increases, new rules, and higher maintenance costs. FFS what are you inhaling.

by Squishy | 23rd Mar 23, 7:53am 1679511219

Traditionally when you start to see big reductions in volume within illiquid assets price discovery gets very difficult. Changes to RBNZ rates will likely start to have a profound impact on valuing assets over coming months.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 8:34am 1679513658

Good ole Kelvin. Asked on RNZ this morning whether this was a ‘crash’ he hummed and ha’d. Couldn’t bring himself to call it the ‘C word’. Landed on ‘serious downturn’.

by IT GUY | 23rd Mar 23, 9:11am 1679515915

No one wants to be first

by Nellbell | 23rd Mar 23, 8:46am 1679514377

“Note: CoreLogic gathers sales data at the time a Sale & Purchase Agreement is signed and this data includes conditional sales.”

see the data definition …….. It’s a data comparison that it then very hard to interpret. I was there in 1981, but not nearly old enough to buy a house, old enough to understand that it was a very rare thing to pay cash for a house. And at the moment in our area there are numerous conditional contracts on listed properties, almost all fall over either unable to sell their home for the money they think it is worth or maybe not able to raise enough finance. None uf us know much about how many conditional offers fall over or why, either now or in 1981.

by scooter_mcgavin | 23rd Mar 23, 8:48am 1679514512

All the rascal boomer landlords had a sleepy February.

by Black and White | 23rd Mar 23, 8:53am 1679514807

Fantastic long may it continue.

Lets get this market down to a sustainable level where good hard working Kiwi,s can buy family homes.

by Albert2020 | 23rd Mar 23, 9:23am 1679516625

Would certainly fix a lot of our social problems if that was to happen. Unfortunately you have an opposition that wants to repeal and enact policies that would do the exact opposite.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 9:37am 1679517441

🤗 hello... When it crashes to it's bottom us "speculating cashed up boomers" will be first in with CASH and few CONDITIONS!..

We will be followed by the kids that are financed by the bank of M&D

You useless gen whatever's will have to sell your I phones, quit your expensive " trendy cloudy IPAs" and get real work!

TO EASY!

THANKS Jabcinda, Grunt, Adrain, and C Hippy

🤙👏🤙👏🤙👏🤙👏🤙👏🤙👏

by Juzz | 23rd Mar 23, 10:16am 1679519793

There are people who are in similar positions that aren't boomers btw. Also some have ability and means to service high levels of debt and the skills to make improvements.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 10:49am 1679521767

And so can we borrow or biild or reno!

But having less CONDITIONS is more appealing to a seller desperate to sell.

And the morthey buy now with a 6,7 % Loan the more thru lose when ot drops further.

by Black and White | 23rd Mar 23, 5:06pm 1679544364

This is why the the Greedy blue team and their greedy boomers supporters will not win the election.

There was 500,000 of us that left the blue team in the last election and I don't know of one going back.

The Blue team just don't understand what's important to kiwis

People are the most important thing to my age group 45-55 we are the ones pushing back.

We want all kiwis to have a fare go.

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 5:16pm 1679545008

Well put

by homesy | 23rd Mar 23, 8:56am 1679514984

Lots of factors in play in February besides all our economic gloom,most people spent their time in the North Island either on holiday for two weekends and then battening down the hatches for the rest of it underwater.

Will be interesting to see March,I see a lot of now Sold signs in my little town.

by IT GUY | 23rd Mar 23, 9:13am 1679515980

March is going to print lower.....

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 9:24am 1679516670

Let's get real

The facts...

About 4-500 properties are loaded on TM every day.

The total number of property's on TM is rising which means more stock less sales!

When the supply outweighs the demand prices fall!!!

Smart buyers see this and wait for the bottom.

Desperate sellers drop prices.

Desperate/dumb buyers buy and suffer if they have to sell before prices revive to a decent level.

Passionate buyers, with plenty of money, buy because they have to have a particular property.

Mortgage sales drive prices down further.

Real estate bullshitters talk it up until the seller goes WTF " why are we unsold" then they drop the price ( unless the brought high during the COVID blimp!

Sellers are listing because they need to sell!!!.. very few spend money to test the market..

Listing a house in a downturn when you don't need to sell is dumb.

Most listing agents should be telling the owner the reality of the slowing market/ buyer favored market?

All this points to further price falls...

Which means buyers wait for the desperate owners to blink..

And they will!!!!

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 11:25am 1679523905

About 4-500 properties are loaded on TM every day.

The total number of property's on TM is rising which means more stock less sales!

The number for sale on Trademe has risen 200 in the last 3 weeks. Of those, 16 were less than 3 bedroom, which is not the onslaught of newly built apartments pouring in that some were predicting

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Mar 23, 11:42am 1679524950

Landlords asking higher rents are often not getting them. Now that greed appears to have reached its limits with an inflation backdrop nearing 8%, what say you HW2?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131576773/landlords-asking-for-higher-…

It sure sux to be a Landlord......

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 1:38pm 1679531891

what say you

🤣🐗🐖

by Retired-Poppy | 23rd Mar 23, 2:55pm 1679536506

....under the weight of hard evidence, has the resident Landlord been robbed of his tongue?

Oh-ok, its fake news hahahahaha :)

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 11:46am 1679525173

Bull shit. Go count them. As of 11:40am today the is 153 listed.

Yesterday there was 421!...

by Chaosinflesh | 23rd Mar 23, 1:17pm 1679530639

I tracked the trademe data for most of last year - so you need to be mindful of something when looking at it: they've been tracking more than a listing per minute for the last year or so. But around 8pm each night, a good 4-500 listings drop off the counts. I don't work for TradeMe, so I don't know for sure, but I think what's happening is you are seeing either the realtors or the software refreshing listings. But the old listings aren't removed until the end of the day.

Today, there are just over 40,000 property listings on Trademe. Last March there were 34,000. (both number include relocatables, mind). That's about 120 excess listings per week, or 24 per work day, over the last year.

The big movers in terms of listings were Waikato, Manawatu and Christchurch. All places investors from Auckland & Wellington were buying up only a few short years ago.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 3:01pm 1679536870

In Dec 22 there were 24000 3 months later boom 💥.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 5:42pm 1679546578

Remember ! Most of the listings that drop of are not sold and just come to the listing end date. Some are re listed some sit.

by HW2 | 23rd Mar 23, 1:35pm 1679531755

I am saying the number on hand Hemi, maybe I was not clear enough.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 3:01pm 1679536904

So was I.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 3:02pm 1679536942

So was I.

by whakahokia mai | 23rd Mar 23, 9:49am 1679518174

The current and ongoing house price ‘correction’ seems to be playing out to a generally positive vibe in NZ. Seen as a good thing by most. Especially in an election year it does not seem to be driving a negative narrative against the incumbent government at the moment. As opposed to the feel good factor permeating home owners when prices are rising. Interesting times we live in as a famous Chinese gentleman apparently once said.

by Hemi Ti Wire | 23rd Mar 23, 10:56am 1679522170

Yawn, of course the narative is positive!

Just look at who reports the narrative!

Spin it whatever way you like. Its good for the rich and better for the rich... the poor, who mostly have a bad education / circumstances/ or savings ability are at the mercy of the rental market, banks, and the dumb arse government.

They dont have much of a real voice! The pollies overtalk them!

by Whatwillhappen | 23rd Mar 23, 11:27am 1679524041

The Chinese curse is "May you live in interesting times."

by Slapheid | 23rd Mar 23, 9:53am 1679518423

So green shoots then? Got it!

#BeQuick

by K.W. | 23rd Mar 23, 10:10am 1679519444

You missed out the best bit! 15% of sales were to cash buyers with multiple properties. The rich get richer. Thanks Labour! Keep the poor (or in this case, middle class) man down while the wealthy hoover up all the assets. Gotta maintain that voter base welfare dependency somehow.

by Juzz | 23rd Mar 23, 10:19am 1679519948

Good, it means they will have exhausted their means to purchase when the market crashes further. Less competitiin for the shrewd

by ZeroCredibilit… | 23rd Mar 23, 11:21am 1679523709

You mean, lowest sales since 1983, per capita… right?

by DTRH | 23rd Mar 23, 1:10pm 1679530258

Most of the population do not earn the income to buy in main city’s from scratch and price’s will continue to fall until this is solved. Still around another 25% down and people will start to nibble, if you purchase today with 10% deposit by end of year you will probably be in negative equity.

by WestieAJ | 23rd Mar 23, 1:20pm 1679530821

Wouldn't you see The Warehouse Group as a bell weather for the economy? A 60% drop in earnings while sales are up 5%. So more money coming in but a lot less going to the bottom line and shareholders. Unacceptable for shareholders I assume. So today they announce 340 jobs to go from the Auckland support office. According to their website the total staff employed at that office is 700. So nearly half of them are getting the axe.

Any home owners or potential FHB amongst them?

If you can chop half your support staff and your business can carry on providing the same level of service to it's customers. WTF were all those people doing in the first place and who else is going to pay them to do whatever that was in the current economic climate?

by HouseMouse | 23rd Mar 23, 2:32pm 1679535177

Yes right on cue as I mentioned earlier today that poor company earnings will be a drag on shares.

by Middleaged | 23rd Mar 23, 2:25pm 1679534751

So about 61000 houses sold 2022, and that was a bad year. 4100 for Feb 2023; if that is an "average" month for 2023 then this year's number will be about 49000 houses sold. Which must be a VERY bad year to be in RE or any of the industries that feed off it.

by Averageman | 23rd Mar 23, 3:07pm 1679537221

Stats show about 16500 agents and hangers on. If they have a year of slow months of sales volume (estimate above) they will average 2.9 sales each in the next year. Clearly some will sell more and many will sell nothing. The vast majority outside the superstars are about to starve.