Big drop in the number of residential property auctions

Property / news

Fewer properties being auctioned, less than a third selling under the hammer

15th Apr 23, 6:00am by Greg Ninness

The autumn breezes have well and truly blown through the real estate auction rooms, with the number of properties offered at the latest auctions more than halved from the summer peak.

Interest.co.nz monitored 144 residential property auctions around the country over the week from April 8-14, down from around 300 a week at the peak of the summer selling season in March.

Of the 144 properties offered at the latest auctions, 42 were sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 29%, down slightly from 33% the previous week.

Overall auction sales rates have hovered at around a third for most of this year.

Prices also appeared to soften, with just 22% of the properties that sold achieving prices greater than or equal to their rating valuations, down from 39% the previous week.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz, including the selling prices and rating valuations of those that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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123 Comments

by danicriss | 15th Apr 23, 6:44am 1681497860

Might as well start comparing selling prices against the 2017 CV, will soon become a more relevant metric

by Nifty1 | 15th Apr 23, 9:37am 1681508271

Not even close to 2017 CVs...

by DavidJ | 15th Apr 23, 11:17am 1681514261

Ha … give it time .. won’t be far away

by structural engineer | 15th Apr 23, 6:59am 1681498746

NZ has got bigger problems than this.

I see we are on track to have the worst trade account deficit this year compared to the worlds top 40 countries. Worse than Greece which is effectively broke. Source IMF.

Our credit rating is under review.

Trouble is coming.

by danicriss | 15th Apr 23, 7:17am 1681499823

I see we are on track to have the worst trade account deficit this year compared to the worlds top 40 countries

Any idea how we traditionally ranked, say for the last decade? Source would be cool

by Zachary Smith | 15th Apr 23, 7:39am 1681501177

Quick Google search reveals 2022 with 33.8B (Source)

Previous years:

2021 10,068,609,421

2020 823,574,551

2019 637,733,674

2018 94,792,742

2017 1,956,077,66

(Source)

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 9:11am 1681506703

Analysis here https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trade-balance-slips-deeper-into-the….

and here https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-marke…

Out of balance Bottom line  The annual current account deficit hit its widest level in the history of these data in Q4 2022 – at a whopping -8.9% of GDP.  New Zealand’s net international liability position narrowed $1.6bn from Q3 to a still-whopping $192.9bn. As a share of GDP it narrowed 1.4ppt to 50.7%.  All up, this isn’t welcome news from an external balance perspective, but the outlook is for the current account to narrow as domestic demand softens and international tourism and education exports continue to recover.

The risk is that tourism does not recover nor education and exports drop due to external demand dropping.... then all hell breaks loose

by HW2 | 16th Apr 23, 7:09am 1681585775

V8 running on two cylinders, often the case in NZ. Bring in some willing hard working highly educated immigrants to serve in hospitals, and elsewhere. More and more kiwis can then take a rest or not bother to get educated.

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 9:59am 1681509543

Our trade account deficit has become absolutely terrible under Labour! Hardly anyone talks about it, but it's making NZ much poorer!

(Trade account deficit means that we, NZ, are spending much more importing/buying stuff, than we are earning by exporting/selling stuff, a recipe to go broke)

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Apr 23, 8:39am 1681504797

"Our trade account deficit has because absolutely terrible under Labour!"

Yvil, do you think banks preference for lending on housing as opposed to manufacturing has more to do with eventual Current Account Deficit creation? If so, what should Labour have done differently by way of an intervention?

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 8:46am 1681505213

Borrow and spend on cars and imported stuff is an issue but the biggest thing was lack of foreign dollars being earned from tourists and falling exports during covid.....

While I really hate Labour its hard to blame this all on them. We are still borrowing to spend, banks topping up home loans to buy EVs etc at 1%, full your boots.

If tourists do not come back and export earnings do not recover then we will see downgrades, lower NZD higher cost of everything, drop in quality of life here etc etc etc

Trying to attract quality health professionals will just get harder etc etc. All those green EVs will get way more expensive.

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 10:03am 1681509784

You make a fair point IT, but Labour are the ones who completely locked our country and also ourselves up. It's hard to produce stuff to sell and export, when you're locked up!

by SND | 15th Apr 23, 10:08am 1681510109

Was the situation really worse in NZ than it was around the world? All countries experienced lockdowns, with high impact on productivity.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 3:14pm 1681528471

They closed some industries to be replaced by imports. Pushing to shut down others that earn overseas income in the name of being sustainable. Its not very sustainable, unless they tell their supporters to ease off their consumption, which they won't

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 10:18am 1681510707

I think between education and tourism that was a massive hit, Labour are to blame for running us way to hot for too long and splurging on computers/tvs/cars etc etc etc, with Orr to blame for funding the spend up, labour are not totally responsible but have not seen the obvious hangover coming as they have been too focused on co-governance, Maori health authroities light rail etc..... we are really screwed here ..... we would have been better to not lockdown, lose maybe 20k people that where mainly weak and near death anyway.....

by HouseMouse | 15th Apr 23, 10:25am 1681511139

I said at the time that the lock downs would cost us massively down the line, both in economic terms but also social terms (kids schooling, mental wellbeing etc). It’s coming home to roost.

I concede that the first lockdowns were probably the right thing to do - but not the later ones.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 11:44am 1681515863

I'm currently travelling, and the story from locals is the same as it was last year, regarding covid lockdowns. No helicopter money, massive household income decifits for 2-3 years, people having to take out personal loans and sell off personal assets just to get by, and their incomes haven't even returned to 2019 levels yet.

If kiwis have a problem with NZs covid response, they could do with a reality check.

My prediction: future NZ governments are going to juice migration and education export $$$ to make up for the shortfalls in the rest of the economy. I'm not saying whether that's good or not, just that it's probably what's going to happen.

by RickStrauss | 17th Apr 23, 1:56pm 1681696607

Future governments will definitely juice immigration because none of them have any other economic plan. Most especially the folk who are all in on incentivising land speculation rather than productive export business building.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 11:57am 1681516623

Fortress NZ hasn't been good for NZ. It saved a few mainly old people and obese

It was good for Lame-bours flagging 2019 polls.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 12:05pm 1681517125

They allowed for a greater degree of business continuity than most other countries, evidenced by our better than average GDP figures for the past 2-3 years.

The quality of that GDP activity is up for debate though.

by Nellbell | 15th Apr 23, 6:10pm 1681539045

Yes HM, I think non Aucklanders experienced lockdown differently, but that’s because after the first lockdown I think we only had one other for a couple of weeks. Someone said to me the other day that they would like another lockdown….. for rest and relaxation I think. I don’t think many Aucklanders would ever say that.

by HouseMouse | 15th Apr 23, 6:22pm 1681539725

Auckland was locked down MUCH more. My dad who lives in Wellington just doesn’t get what we went through.

by mja | 15th Apr 23, 11:01pm 1681556512

by Mr Ed | 15th Apr 23, 8:42pm 1681548172

Give yourself another pat on the back “I reckon”

aka House Rodent

by Rob Reid | 16th Apr 23, 11:23pm 1681644225

Personally, I find it useful when people remind us of their predictions and how right or wrong they were, particularly if it reveals how their thinking has changed.

All predictions are "I reckons" to some extent - it's hardly a fair criticism.

by Juzz | 15th Apr 23, 10:27am 1681511263

Not all those deaths would have been weak near dead people, and the stress that would have put on our health system would have caused additional non-covid related deaths.

by vman | 15th Apr 23, 11:42am 1681515778

IT,I guess it's never too late to implement your ideas,perhaps we just ban medical intervention for anyone ove 65 going forward,they are all gonna die anyway..

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 1:49pm 1681523399

this sounds like living in Southern districts health board area? so we are there already.... under liebour

by vman | 15th Apr 23, 3:01pm 1681527691

You should be happy then if you see the old and infirmed as not worth spending cash on.

by Juzz | 15th Apr 23, 10:23am 1681511022

Did you ever look at how many deaths per capita we had compared to other countries? Is that worth anything?

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 11:27am 1681514831

its cost us probably 50 billion, we just don't spend that kind of money per patient now on cancer mental health anything, it was way way over the top.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 12:12pm 1681517534

Did you ever look at how many deaths per capita we had compared to other countries? Is that worth anything?

On a very crude analysis (incidence to Covid related deaths to popn), I showed the other day that the death rate in NZ was approx 70% worse than in Vietnam - the nearest country to Wuhan. The Cindy fan club didn't want to see it. But their closeted minds were unable to point out and say "that's a very crude, directional measurement".

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 12:14pm 1681517687

Not only that, but presumably you've been to Vietnam, and their record keeping and hospital attendance levels aren't the same as ours.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 2:15pm 1681524926

Not only that, but presumably you've been to Vietnam, and their record keeping and hospital attendance levels aren't the same as ours.

And what is your expertise on the recording of Covid related deaths in Vietnam? Like most NZers, you are relying on 'reckons' for a conclusion. Not as a departure point to understand the differences in how data is collected and recorded.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 4:05pm 1681531542

This shouldn't be a dick waving contest, views should stand on their own merits. But I've spent a significant time living in the region, speak a few of the languages, and have some formal education in the politics and history. The takeaway I've got is a large percentage of the populations there exist outside the sort of formal record keeping and central government framework of a developed country like NZ, and as such data can be taken with a pinch of salt. Corruption is also rife in a level well beyond the "institutional corruption" you've mentioned of NZ.

That said, I do have a feeling from being around Asia in recent times that less people contracted covid in general there, but that that's due more to the environment than any superior government actions.

You're there how, on business trips? Anyway, tell me more raw data dumps, lacking anything in the way of context and depth. Amazing stuff.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 4:43pm 1681533830

But I've spent a significant time living in the region, speak a few of the languages, and have some formal education in the politics and history.

So that means you understand how Vietnam collects and records data on Covid deaths.

OK.

So given you know this, can you quantify the impact on why the incidence of Covid deaths to popn is approx 70% higher in NZ?

I think you're demonstrating what I said.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 10:07pm 1681553251

I think you lack basic reading comprehension skills.

Listening is a more valuable component of communication than speaking.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 10:34pm 1681554853

Nowhere did you say you were an expert or knowledgeable on the collection of Covid-related deaths in Vietnam. You just rattled off some of your personal credentials and a few 'reckons.'

So you don't know.

by vman | 15th Apr 23, 12:16pm 1681517816

J.C,You chose one country out of the whole world to compare...wow,you should be doing polls for the politicians...crude analysis was an apt description.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 2:16pm 1681524978

J.C,You chose one country out of the whole world to compare...wow,you should be doing polls for the politicians...crude analysis was an apt description.

There are many countries where the incidence of Covid death to popn is lower than in NZ.

by Poppyc | 15th Apr 23, 12:26pm 1681518382

Key difference - Vietnamese are the skinniest people in the world, Kiwis some of the fattest

Yet we continue to let our population indulge themselves and promote this level of general unhealthiness (incl one of the covid 'experts' being morbidly obese)

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 1:54pm 1681523659

The Vietnamese are also younger on average.

And there's a theory the warmer climates supress the lifespan of covid viruses.

All in all, not that comparable a country.

by J.C. | 15th Apr 23, 7:23pm 1681543397

All in all, not that comparable a country.

Arguably there are no "comparable" countries. NZ is an isolated, developed country at the end of the world surrounded by water with a popn that is similar to that of Western Sydney.

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 1:58pm 1681523912

every time we moved to takeaways KFC overloaded

by Prickle | 15th Apr 23, 2:48pm 1681526895

KFC vouchers were used as bribes for vaccinations in some areas. It worked! (Maybe use them for census too).

by HW2 | 16th Apr 23, 7:19am 1681586377

Was that pinky. I used to like Michael Baker until he came out in the media with instructions to the govt to go harder

by Baywatch | 15th Apr 23, 3:23pm 1681529038

What storm?

by E46 | 15th Apr 23, 12:52pm 1681519953

That was my primary objection to the proposed "cash for clunkers" program Labour proposed, which has since been abandoned, was that it involved giving people $10,000 to purchase hybrid or electric vehicles.

While similar programs have been implemented in both the United States and Europe, those economies have robust automotive industries, so the subsidy effectively circulates back into their own systems. However, this would not be the case for New Zealand, where we lack a significant car manufacturing sector. As a result, implementing such a program would have been pure insanity, as it would have only worsened our already substantial deficit.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 1:34pm 1681522448

While I agree with you in principle, what would be interesting to know is the longer term ramifications on fuel imports by having a more electric fleet. As just like cars, we aren't big fuel producers also.

by E46 | 15th Apr 23, 1:57pm 1681523831

That's a good point, some more data on that would be interesting. I feel though EVs would naturally become part of the wider fleet as they diffuse in from overseas and the cost/benefit ratio balances out for more households and more used examples become available.

How it is now with the rebates I don't really have any issue with. What did seem like a problem was the proposal of just straight up giving people $10k to buy an EV/Hybrid which would surely have some distortionary effect on the used market for those vehicles, so it might not even save low-income households any money and just push the price up of EV/Hybrids for everybody. Just struck me as an incredibly dense and poorly thought-out policy with little consideration for potential ramifications.

by agnostium | 15th Apr 23, 10:04pm 1681553052

I've said it before and I'll say it again. EVs are a distraction from the changes we need to make to our transport system. We cannot continue with car dependency, EVs just let rich people continue as they are and feel good about themselves.

Less cars, less car travel and less/smaller roads are the future. We can accept and plan for it or fight tooth and nail to maintain status quo. One will help out national productivity, one will take us deeper into deficit.

by E46 | 15th Apr 23, 11:04pm 1681556663

I agree with that. The money would be better directed towards public transport infrastructure.

Even e-bikes would seem like a better deployment of resources. One 70kwh car battery could be made into around 140 e-bikes. That just feels like a more efficent use of resources than 3+ ton vehicles, of course we would need adequate cycling infrastrucutre to back it up.

by structural engineer | 16th Apr 23, 5:38am 1681580327

Source. I tend to agree with his take on the NZ media as well.

https://www.downtoearth.kiwi

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Apr 23, 8:16am 1681503399

Structural engineer, if/when our currency depreciates as a result of the ballooning deficit, it will likely result in even higher interest rates or at least high interest rates for longer than anticipated not only to defend the currency but to prevent imported inflation. The illusion of sustainable wealth creation by way of selling houses to one and other at ever higher prices is finally being exposed for what it was all along, an illusion. I'm glad you mentioned the Current Account Deficit because there are many Property Spruikers who don't know what one is. They're about to find out.

edit

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 8:15am 1681503304

Buy a car here IMHO newish ones will get more expensive to import, offset somewhat by lease returns if recession really bites.

by Retired-Poppy | 15th Apr 23, 8:22am 1681503751

It will be interesting to see the effect on the classic car market, in particular American classics - they're flooding in. On TradeMe, listings for classic cars as doubled over the last 18 months. Its an expensive hobby and just as quickly abandoned when cash once again becomes king.

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 9:12am 1681506772

The top 10% of quality will probably hold, anything iffy not so much

by OldSkoolEconomics | 15th Apr 23, 8:21am 1681503680

Great post. Thanks RP.

The NZ economy seems to be at a dangerous precipice with no plans to change its direction and everyone believing that its about to gk back to usual and another house price boom will somehow start and save us.

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 10:10am 1681510212

RP: "The illusion of sustainable wealth creation by way of selling houses to one and other at ever higher prices is finally being exposed"

This is certainly not wrong, but the real blame lies with the loose monetary policies, flooding the market with cheap money. The real illusion of wealth, was an illusion because of the vast amount of cheap money made available.

by Prickle | 15th Apr 23, 2:49pm 1681526993

We follow whatever the Federal Reserve decides. It’s almost as though NZ is the Feds test vehicle.

by Mr Ed | 15th Apr 23, 8:39pm 1681547963

Do you have the knack ?

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 7:14am 1681499675

seeing more deadline sales in Auckland

by Nellbell | 15th Apr 23, 7:24am 1681500251

We have almost all deadline sales down here, haven’t seen a property sell at deadline date in months. Getting more list prices now, but they are still too high.

by Dgm | 15th Apr 23, 8:03am 1681502618

I see more 'dead' sales in Auckland

by OldSkoolEconomics | 15th Apr 23, 8:26am 1681503992

Everything is by negotiation or priced in Tauranga. Most listed by auction change strategy before the auction date (when agents realise they dont have enough interest to get multiple bids).

Agents are still very deluded and many struggling with how to sell in a falling market.

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 8:54am 1681505646

I know someone who would have got about 2.8 at peak (dev site) asked 2.1 ish since nov, best offer 1.8.

The house they want, vendor wants 2.1

Eventually the market will settle back to lower numbers and people will be able to carry on lives and sales volumes will go up.

These guys would take the 1.8 if the other vendor would sell for 1.8, probably true down the line as well....

So whats holding clearance back is a fear of missing out on yesterdays prices, which are now a long way back in the rear view mirror.

So for that example the property will prob eventually sell about 35% below peak.

It just takes time for people to accept the paper loss...... its like grieving, for most they are grieving the loss of a quality retirement they though this equity would bring, not just magic $$$ before their eyes

by Shaft | 15th Apr 23, 9:25am 1681507512

Deluded??.,they are lieing to themselves and the customers.

Some of the spin i here is just outright bull crap.

Post an auction yesterday, 100% pased in, 3 sales out of 47 listings in the last 30 days, And the auctioneer says. ..

" the market is strong, just walk around the area and see the sold signs" .. said muppet was talking to 5 agents 2 office staff and me!

by Final Account | 15th Apr 23, 11:46am 1681516019

I think most RE Agents just don't know anything other than a bonkers market with everyone sacrificing their sanity on the alter of RE.

When the veil of lunacy is lifted they are still there walking around like wind up robots in the morning light.

by interesting1234 | 17th Apr 23, 8:59am 1681678750

Well they're having to do some actual work for the 1st time in years and just like vendor expectations, they are taking their sweet time to change their behaviour

by ex agent | 15th Apr 23, 8:24am 1681503886

The housing market in some parts of New Zealand including Auckland is going to drop a lot more in value over the next 12 months at least. If you are in Auckland and a FHB rent or live at home. It will cost you thousands but the wait will save you tens of thousands you won’t have to borrow when you eventually buy. Use some simple common sense. The market is not going to run away from you. How can it when interest rates are so high and might go higher and many people cannot borrow funds to buy.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 15th Apr 23, 8:33am 1681504418

I would love to see a believable justification for why house prices might level off or recover - at a time rates are tipped to rise for 18 months and the economy expected to worsen.

Any FHB would be better off to take their deposit to a casino and put it on black.

by Dgm | 15th Apr 23, 8:34am 1681504465

The world is such that when the market is going up, there are all those sessions talks that hype up the market , sucking buyers in..

When the market is on the way down, all is quiet...

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 10:27am 1681511266

Really? read the comments, I don't think it's all gone quiet.

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 9:02am 1681506130

Confidence is a fickle thing ex agent

Stress test rates now 8.5-9%

Job loss is possible

FHBers have been told by the Spruikers that this is the bottom for the last year - are no longer listening to them just watching the OCR

Last OCR rise 50bps scared them, really scared them......

1st GDP negitive print

Investors stopped buying years ago and are Not active in the Market

Even Investors think prices are too high and have to fall to make them active

It's clearly obvious, even too Blind Freddy, that its prudent to wait here to see just how bad things are going to get.

by E46 | 15th Apr 23, 12:56pm 1681520187

I really don't understand why the stress testing level was ever as low as it was in the first place. Maybe someone smarter than me can explain but it seems crazy to have it set at a level that didn't reflect what it had been in the past and could very realistically of gone to in the future.

by Averageman | 15th Apr 23, 10:11am 1681510287

Auctions are a waste of time in a declining market. Price by speculation, I mean negotiation, is the same. List a price. Take feedback.

Best place for sellers to start is read some finance news. Things, especially debt, have changed a lot. As some have pointed out the current account deficit underpins that.

Rates higher for longer.

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 10:29am 1681511353

Just so that we have an understanding of your experience in the field, how many houses have you bought and sold in your life Averageman?

by Juzz | 15th Apr 23, 10:55am 1681512947

Have you ever been to a rodeo and thought, yeh I'd like to get kicked in the head by a horse?

by Averageman | 15th Apr 23, 11:15am 1681514148

Professionally Building and developing with other peoples money for about fifteen years, abit a while back. I do something else now. My money, personally have bought nine and sold five, four of those I sold personally.

My comment is more about speculative debt use unsupported by income than the physical mechanics of the sector.

So some exposure vs just having read rich dad poor dad. How about you?

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 6:09pm 1681538982

Thanks for your reply Avergeman, I'm a bit surprised you still own 4 properties, given your many anti landlord posts. I would also not describe a multi property owner as an average man!

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 2:35pm 1681526133

To answer your question, I graduated as an Architect in Switzerland, worked there, in the USA and then had my own practice in NZ for 18 years. During that time I started investing in commercial property and later on, also some residential holiday properties in NZ and abroad.

by DTRH | 15th Apr 23, 3:11pm 1681528285

What part of Switzerland, most people rent in Switzerland you must be from their as it was hard to get a working visa.

by Yvil | 15th Apr 23, 3:53pm 1681530797

Born in Lucerne (german speaking) but grew up in Geneva (french speaking). Yes indeed, my parents rented their whole life. Not sure what you mean by "hard to get a working visa", I married a Kiwi, so got residency (I'm a Kiwi today) so no work visa required.

by Ty Coch | 17th Apr 23, 5:23pm 1681709025

I think they meant its 'hard to get a working visa in Switzerland', so by you working there after graduation they deduced you were from there.

by Shaft | 15th Apr 23, 9:28am 1681507693

Heres the rub...

CV hump

CVs that have changed during Covid ( eg- 2019-22 eg Whangarei...) are 20- 30% to high

ALGORITHIMS DICTATE

HOMES IN PARTICULAR and One Roof are using bad algorithims to influence the market. This is verified by analysing sales data ( price sold v CVs, Auction bids v CV etc)

EG- Homes... they update thier records daily based on sales in each area then the alorithim re values all properties in the area . So, your house value can be wrongly influenced buy , for example the sale of one high priced/sold outlier house. In a low sales period.

RE Agents

these spinners are using the high "covid bump" CVs to influence sellers and price listings they know will not sell.

- just to get listings

- to grab marketing fees income in a slow sales period.

They are now lòoking rather sad as sales plummet and owners/sellers are reluctant to drop prices depending when they brought.

Ray white ae a classic example of over hyped sales via over priced failed " income grabbing" auction failures.

https://www.raywhite.co.nz/auction-results/

# my analysis ( take it how you Iike) is, many bids placed on failed auctions are priced about 2017 valuations.

FOMO BUYERS

Call them what you like but the people that brought at stupid prices during the Covid hump and are now trying to sell are a big influence in the market.

My analysis of these sellers, based on analysis of sellers that brought in the last 3 years, is they are about 14% of the market on my area.

They want to seĺl but can't meet the falling market and as such are holding on to high prices and hope. This inturn is keeping all oher prices high due agents comparison benchmarking .

the divide

So? The gap between buyers who are looking for à price near thr bottom and the seller who believes the Agent/algorithim pricing/ or has brought high, grows until desperation hits and a few cards, in the house of cards , fall..then its aĺl on.

No matter how the REI spin it, The signs / pressure points are all there. ...

Rising stock

Falling buyers

Signs of more and more discounted properties below CV

Winter looming

Inflation

RB driving a recession

Trade defecit

Looming unemployment

Constuction slowing...

OCR rising

Interest rates pressure...

A dumb govt wasting billons on social divide

In summary, " we ain't seen nothing yet... bu bub ba baby" the collapse is very close

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 12:10pm 1681517402

OTP has a number of homes under construction, around a dozen.

More land area being opened for canal

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 12:19pm 1681517993

** Mortgagee numbers are low and dropping.

** Overall numbers of homes for sale are coming down, either sold or delisted.

by Pa1nter | 15th Apr 23, 1:35pm 1681522512

Don't you bloody dare crush hopes of a cheap house bonanza. That's a lot of people's plan A.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 3:05pm 1681527913

Expressing contrasting sentiments does not make one popular

by ex agent | 15th Apr 23, 3:36pm 1681529819

People are hoping it will improve in spring. I hav my doubts about hat. They should sell now if they get an offer.

by interesting1234 | 17th Apr 23, 9:36am 1681681013

I agree but the issue is with many properties, nobody is offering due to high reno costs or expectations of prices dropping in the future. Many sellers choosing to relist in spring as they haven't had any offers at all.

by beau | 16th Apr 23, 4:30pm 1681619416

Fun fact - Randy Bachman - You Aint Seen Nothing Yet.... 'insists that the song was performed as a joke for his brother, Gary, who had a stutter. They only intended to record it once with the stutter and send the only recording to Gary'.

Gotta be the ultimate payout on your sibling. A worldwide hit.

by Alpeg | 15th Apr 23, 9:37am 1681508257

So now no one is talking about the loss of capital gain in retirement villages. Capital loss anyone?

by Justa comment | 15th Apr 23, 10:16am 1681510576

yes the villages took the gain, who gets the loss??

by SND | 15th Apr 23, 10:17am 1681510671

I walk past one when fetching the kids from school. Big ad sign at the front gate "Capital gain in your retirement". How can they make such a claim? Is it backed up by something written anywhere in the contract? Or can they just get away with it should you lose money?

by Solid_Granite | 15th Apr 23, 10:56am 1681513016

Look for the fine fine print at the bottom which likely says "past performance is not indicative of future performance"

by Nzdan | 15th Apr 23, 12:48pm 1681519696

Is there any limit to how bold and certain a claim can be before that usual fine print clause becomes null and void?

"We 100% guarantee that you'll receive capital gains in retirement" past performance is not indicative of future performance

by SND | 15th Apr 23, 9:44pm 1681551841

No such fine print on this sign. Shocking fine prints can void all the lies preceding them...

by HouseMouse | 15th Apr 23, 3:29pm 1681529368

I didn’t think village residents (or more like their inheriting children) benefit from capital gain. I thought it all goes to the village operator. At least that’s the model at Ryman.

by Chaosinflesh | 15th Apr 23, 4:08pm 1681531703

And that's if it doesn't all go down the gurgler when they move into managed care...

by vman | 15th Apr 23, 9:40am 1681508428

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/why-australia-is…

Why Australia is the worst place to have a mortgage

Interest rates may have stabilised but that doesn’t mean mortgages will. And it all goes to prove why Australia is the worst place to have a mortgage.

by SND | 15th Apr 23, 10:21am 1681510866

Is it the same scam we have here where you can only fix for 5 years max (when it's for the duration of the mortgage in other developed countries)?

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 10:48am 1681512483

In Canada, their real estate industry is talking 'green shoots' as they enter their Spring selling season. After declining for 12 consecutive months, their national home price index rose +0.2% to C$709,000 (NZ$855,000) from February to March. Their market suffers from an unusually low number of listings available. But their much higher interest rates will make it challenging to build any sort of meaningful recovery.

Another market picks up or at least steadies. The data of a soft landing is stacking

by Juzz | 15th Apr 23, 10:53am 1681512836

talking 'green shoots'.... But their much higher interest rates will make it challenging to build any sort of meaningful recovery.

+0.2% , still just talk then and still way over priced there too

by E46 | 15th Apr 23, 2:44pm 1681526670

Following annual deficits from 2015 to 2020, Canada's merchandise trade balance posted a surplus for a second consecutive year in 2022. Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened from $4.6 billion in 2021 to $20.1 billion in 2022

From this source. You can't compare Canada's economy to our own.

Can't compare Australia either for that matter.

Australia posted another very large trade surplus in February for both goods and services. The surplus swelled by +AU$2.6 bln to AU$13.9 bln, the third largest surplus on record. A key reason was that imports retreated in the month, a shift which was expected, but the size of the fall was much larger than anticipated. The outsized February surplus takes their annual surplus to more than AU$145 bln, equivalent to +5.9% of their GDP.

We are in a much worse position, our trade deficit is sitting at $33.8 billion. Either interest rates remain higher or our currency's value collapses. Neither is likely to lead to anything resembling a recovery in the housing market for the time being.

I could be wrong though, the housing market has defied fundamentals before 🤷.

by Baywatch | 15th Apr 23, 3:32pm 1681529534

Canada's population grew by over a million people for the first time ever last year, the government has said.

The country's population increased from 38,516,138 to 39,566,248 people, Statistics Canada said.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 3:38pm 1681529913

How come, but also its too fast. Canada is 8 times NZ popn and from the immigration stats out yesterday combined with natural increase we could soon be approaching that rate

I know a couple who went to Canada on work visas a couple years ago, have since left. Our new immigrants may do the same when they compare us to our near neighbours. It's possible.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 10:56am 1681512963

Pathetic results, can't get much worse. Good time to buy.

by Final Account | 15th Apr 23, 11:50am 1681516252

🤣

by Dgm | 15th Apr 23, 3:08pm 1681528089

Thanks, Housing Woes 2

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 7:16pm 1681542975

No problem, Double Gains Moderated

by ex agent | 15th Apr 23, 3:32pm 1681529549

Good time to be patient and wait for further falls in price.

by Dgm | 15th Apr 23, 4:50pm 1681534257

Not sure why people detest house price falls when it's for the betterment of many young folks..

Hopefully those being patient get to reap the benefits

by ex agent | 15th Apr 23, 6:36pm 1681540612

There will be a lot of people in NZ currently who are wishing they had not borrowed so much when rates were low. They listened to spruikers and agents and overlooked the fact we were on emergency rates. How could so many people be blind to that fact.

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 7:03pm 1681542239

Some complete delusional idiots helped their kids into a life of debt

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 6:52pm 1681541576

Would there be enough houses if everyone could afford one

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 7:16pm 1681543010

Yes obviously, but like eliminating child poverty its not likely as many people having issues that make then dysfunctional in a capitalist society. if we accepted tiny houses etc, we could easily allow everyone to own one....

Its like cars HW2 there are enough in NZ , everyone can afford one, it still lets complete pricks want to own fancy sports ones......... yes we can have enough houses in NZ that everyone could own one. But we would need more tiny houses and locations that look a lot more like US trailer parks.

by HW2 | 15th Apr 23, 7:33pm 1681544035

You on your high horse .... or your rocking horse?

by IT GUY | 15th Apr 23, 8:07pm 1681546056

Fallen off your horse, about 18 months ago, but not realised?

by HW2 | 16th Apr 23, 7:00am 1681585253

I could have if I was a new rider. It is tricky riding fast up the mountain and down the other side. I know how to ride horses

Weekends are a good time to look at new horses or even houses

by Mannering | 17th Apr 23, 1:54pm 1681696487

IT GUY. Why are those who own fancy sporty cars "complete pricks ?" What sort of cars should they own to be politically correct ?

by steve martin | 17th Apr 23, 7:35am 1681673721

Don’t forget about the war children?

by Esprit | 17th Apr 23, 11:59am 1681689554

My in-laws have recently sold and are in the market to downsize and get a place a little closer to services and their families.

Sold at auction and certainly took a hit relative to what whey would have got at the peak (probably about 20-25% off estimated peak value).

They're now shopping but will likely be moving in with us for a few months once their place settles. Should work out well for them as their house-buying dollar is only going to go further and further in the coming months than it does today.