The number of new homes completed in Auckland in January dropped sharply, but the number of homes being built in the region remains at a record high.
Auckland Council issued 965 Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) for new dwellings in January this year, down by 27% compared to the 1327 issued in December.
January's figures were also less than half the number issued each month from September to November last year, when more than 1900 CCCs were issued each month.
CCCs are issued when building work is completed and are the best indicator of new housing supply, unlike building consents which are issued before work commences and are an indicator of likely future supply.
However January's slump was not a surprise because it is usually a slow month for dwelling completions.
That's because as well as being affected by the Christmas break, builders usually try to finish as many projects as they can at the end of the year before they head off to sun themselves in Bali or Whangamata or wherever, and then work slowly picks up again in mid to late January.
So the dip in CCCs issued was not a surprise and dwelling completions were still running at record highs, with January's figures up 14% compared to January last year, and up 40% compared to January 2022.
That means the widely anticipated downturn in residential construction, as indicated by the slide in building consents issued for new dwellings, is yet to hit the number of new homes being completed and available for occupation in Auckland.
That's because on average it takes about two years from the time a building consent is issued for a new dwelling to be built and a CCC issued on completion.
However although the latest figures show no decline in dwelling completions, a closer look suggests they may have peaked.
The monthly average (over 12 months) of new dwellings completed in Auckland has been steadily increasing since June 2022, but has barely changed over the three months from November last year to January this year (see the graph below).
That suggests dwelling completions in Auckland may be peaking and the expected decline in Auckland's new housing supply is probably not far off.
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