People who listed a home for sale and fail to sell it in the early summer trade before Christmas, will have to make some difficult decisions over the Christmas break.
One of the more interesting figures to come out of the latest housing market sales data is the number of properties being withdrawn from sale.
Interest.co.nz's calculations show the number of properties being withdrawn from sale has declined steadily over the last six months, from 3981 in May to 2251 in November. The first graph below shows the monthly trend.
Taken in isolation, those figures might suggest the surplus supply of properties from vendors relative to demand from buyers which has plagued the market over the last few months, particularly in the critical Auckland market, may be starting to subside. If that is the case it would be good news for vendors.
But the fly in the ointment of that theory is the total stock of properties for sale at the end of each month has steadily increased over the last three months. Based on Realestate.co.nz figures, it's up from 29,579 in August to 33,984 in November.
The November figures are particularly telling, because stock levels continued to increase in November. That's even though new listings received in November declined compared to October, while November's sales were up 3.2% compared to October.
The explanation for those apparent contradictions lies in the withdrawal figures.
Stock has been increasing because more vendors have been leaving their properties languishing on the market when they don't sell, rather than biting the bullet on price to achieve a sale or removing them from the market if they don't.
That's not surprising at this time of year because next week the market will head into hibernation for the next month. So many vendors have decided to leave the property on the market for the time being and re-evaluate their options over the Christmas break.
Many are likely hoping another round of interest rate cuts in the New Year will stimulate buyer activity and deliver them a sale at the price they think they deserve.
However, there are a couple of things that could trip them up if that is their plan for next year.
The first is the flow through from any cuts to the Official Cash Rate to lower mortgage rates may not be as great as many are hoping for, limiting their impact on affordability.
And even if mortgage rate cuts are significant, banks are likely to remain very cautious in their lending criteria given the state of the economy.
The second is that anecdotal reports from real estate agencies suggest there is a very healthy supply of new listings building up, ready to come on to the market in the New Year.
So properties that have already been on the market for two or three months will be looking decidedly stale compared to all the fresh new stock.
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