The volume of new homes being built in Auckland should steadily increase over the next two years

 The next two years should see a steady increase in residential construction work in Auckland.

The latest housing data from Auckland Council adds weight to the likelihood that the recent slump in residential construction in the region has passed the bottom of its cycle and is now slowly rising again.

The Council issued 13,771 Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) for new dwellings in the 12 months to August this year.

That was the second month in a row that the annual total has increased, after it bottomed out at 13,540 in June, suggesting residential construction work is starting to rise.

CCCs are issued when building work is completed, so are the best indicator of new housing supply, unlike building consents, which are issued before building work starts, and so are an indicator of potential future housing supply.

CCCs are also backward looking, because they reflect the amount of building work that has already been undertaken.

On average it takes around two years from the time a residential building consent is issued, until the dwelling is completed.

On an annual basis, the number of new dwellings consented in Auckland troughed out at 13,662 in July 2024 and then began steadily rising again.

That sits well with the current CCC numbers, suggesting they are broadly following the consent numbers of two years ago.

If that trend holds true, the annual number of new homes being completed in Auckland should pass 14,000 a year by early next year and reach 15,000 by late 2027.

The graphs below show the trends for both CCCs and building consents issued in Auckland. Both suggest a steady increase in the number of new homes being built in the region, implying there are better times ahead for residential builders.