Capital gains drying up as average house values flatline in main centres

Property

QV says average house values are virtually flat in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch

7th Jun 18, 5:00am by Greg Ninness

The days of capital gains on residential property may be drawing to a close in the main centres, with average property values flat lining in Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, Wellington and Christchurch, according to the latest figures from Quotable Value (QV).

QV's House Price Index for May shows that the average residential property value in Auckland was $1,054 729, up just 1% compared to a year ago and up just 0.1% compared to three months earlier.

And average values in some parts of the city are now below where they were 12 months ago, although the declines aren't huge, with values in Rodney down 0.1%, Manukau down 0.2%, and Franklin down 0.5%, while values are unchanged from 12 months ago in Waitakere.

In other parts of the city such as the North Shore, Central Auckland and Papakura where property values are still up modestly compared to where they were 12 months ago, values have either declined or are unchanged from where they were three months ago.

Similar trends are also evident in other main centres including Wellington, where average property values remain 4.3% higher than they were 12 months ago but are down 1.1% compared to three months ago.

In Christchurch average values are unchanged from 12 months ago.

Quarterly value growth across Auckland and the Wellington Region has come virtually to a standstill," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"With a lower expectation of capital gains, particularly in Auckland, we're seeing people show less urgency when it comes to selling or buying property.

"Value growth across the other regional centres of Hamilton, Tauranga and Christchurch remains flat," he said.

However Dunedin remains a hot spot, with average property values in the southern city up 9.4% in the last 12 months and up 4% in the last three months.

"Dunedin is the only main centre to buck the trend," Nagel said.

"Entry level properties [in Dunedin] remain comparatively low and well located properties continue to demand high prices."

But by and large, double digit annual percentage growth is now mostly limited to some smaller provincial centres such as Kawerau +12.8%, Opotiki +11.3%, Gisborne +10.1%, Ruapehu +16.6%, Whanganui +12.1%, Masterton +13.9% and Carterton +17.3%. But even in some of these locations, value growth over the last three months suggests the rate of growth is slowing.

The table below shows the average property values for all districts, and their percentage change over three months and 12 months.

QV House Price Index - May 2018

Territorial authority	Average current value	12 month change%	3 month change %
Auckland Region	1,054,729	1.0%	0.1%
Wellington Region	633,759	4.3%	-1.1%
Main Urban Areas	794,080	6.1%	0.7%
Total New Zealand Nationwide	677,996	6.9%	0.8%

Far North	423,715	5.1%	-0.9%
Whangarei	524,268	8.5%	2.7%
Kaipara	534,005	3.8%	5.1%
Auckland - Rodney	959,555	-0.1%	0.9%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast	938,303	0.9%	0.8%
Rodney - North	981,881	-1.2%	0.9%
Auckland - North Shore	1,229,088	2.6%	-0.2%
North Shore - Coastal	1,405,224	2.6%	-0.5%
North Shore - Onewa	973,519	2.1%	0.1%
North Shore - North Harbour	1,219,645	3.0%	0.5%
Auckland - Waitakere	826,087	0.0%	0.1%
Auckland - City	1,245,086	1.9%	0.5%
Auckland City - Central	1,104,053	2.7%	2.6%
Auckland_City - East	1,561,019	2.4%	-0.4%
Auckland City - South	1,099,787	0.3%	0.4%
Auckland City - Islands	1,154,849	7.5%	-2.3%
Auckland - Manukau	900,190	-0.2%	-0.3%
Manukau - East	1,156,963	-1.0%	0.1%
Manukau - Central	693,683	1.4%	-1.1%
Manukau - North West	776,684	0.3%	-0.3%
Auckland - Papakura	702,157	2.7%	0.0%
Auckland - Franklin	667,803	-0.5%	-0.9%
Thames Coromandel	736,637	3.6%	3.4%
Hauraki	384,682	-2.4%	-0.5%
Waikato	483,179	8.8%	2.4%
Matamata Piako	422,258	1.6%	-3.0%
Hamilton	553,873	3.1%	1.0%
Hamilton - North East	704,035	3.7%	1.3%
Hamilton - Central & North West	509,605	1.4%	2.2%
Hamilton - South East	504,687	3.8%	0.8%
Hamilton - South West	487,092	2.1%	-1.0%
Waipa	539,768	6.5%	1.3%
Otorohanga	293,627	11.5%	-0.9%
South Waikato	222,415	10.5%	-1.5%
Waitomo	191,364	8.5%	-5.5%
Taupo	470,293	6.7%	0.7%
Western BOP	633,569	5.2%	1.8%
Tauranga	700,744	2.6%	-0.9%
Rotorua	422,965	7.2%	1.3%
Whakatane	427,502	7.6%	2.2%
Kawerau	197,508	12.8%	3.9%
Opotiki	319,010	11.3%	2.9%
Gisborne	309,961	10.1%	2.7%
Wairoa	176,815	5.1%	11.5%
Hastings	458,077	10.7%	1.4%
Napier	507,441	16.3%	3.9%
Central Hawkes Bay	309,524	16.2%	-2.3%
New Plymouth	447,177	6.5%	1.7%
Stratford	264,548	12.2%	5.2%
South Taranaki	215,059	8.0%	-1.6%
Ruapehu	189,251	16.6%	5.5%
Whanganui	249,327	12.1%	5.0%
Rangitikei	203,426	12.5%	5.5%
Manawatu	335,745	9.5%	4.0%
Palmerston North	388,332	8.7%	2.1%
Tararua	196,722	12.9%	6.3%
Horowhenua	311,031	14.4%	2.7%
Kapiti Coast	556,999	11.1%	1.9%
Porirua	551,684	8.3%	0.9%
Upper Hutt	488,642	8.6%	2.9%
Hutt	533,901	5.6%	1.4%
Wellington	754,924	3.8%	-1.2%
Wellington - Central & South	752,778	3.3%	-1.3%
Wellington - East	808,863	2.8%	-1.6%
Wellington - North	678,561	5.1%	-1.2%
Wellington - West	875,114	3.9%	-0.4%
Masterton	340,696	13.9%	1.3%
Carterton	392,008	17.3%	5.0%
South Wairarapa	474,646	20.3%	2.5%
Tasman	569,064	6.4%	0.6%
Nelson	560,473	6.2%	-1.3%
Marlborough	457,596	5.4%	0.8%
Kaikoura	378,870	-9.2%	-15.3%
Buller	188,904	2.3%	2.2%
Grey	215,399	0.2%	1.8%
Westland	244,128	-1.0%	2.9%
Hurunui	383,912	1.9%	-0.4%
Waimakariri	439,912	-0.1%	0.3%
Christchurch	495,148	0.0%	0.1%
Christchurch - East	371,653	-0.1%	0.0%
Christchurch - Hills	668,323	1.4%	-0.2%
Christchurch - Central & North	583,569	-0.2%	0.0%
Christchurch - Southwest	474,128	-0.4%	0.3%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula	513,453	4.0%	0.3%
Selwyn	549,691	0.6%	-0.1%
Ashburton	354,152	0.8%	1.0%
Timaru	357,079	4.5%	0.3%
MacKenzie	516,214	8.7%	-3.6%
Waimate	243,622	9.4%	4.4%
Waitaki	306,436	12.9%	1.5%
Central Otago	486,358	8.0%	2.1%
Queenstown Lakes	1,153,155	9.6%	3.5%
Dunedin	408,827	9.4%	4.0%
Dunedin - Central & North	426,715	10.0%	4.8%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal	378,031	8.5%	4.8%
Dunedin - South	390,162	10.3%	4.5%
Dunedin - Taieri	418,468	8.2%	2.5%
Clutha	206,881	9.0%	-3.2%
Southland	262,261	3.1%	-7.5%
Gore	225,092	6.7%	1.5%
Invercargill	264,630	8.8%	1.8%

No chart with that title exists.

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106 Comments

by Auckland | 7th Jun 18, 6:22am 1528309343

Barfoot and Thompson say the median Auckland home price has fallen 80K since a year ago. Average price has fallen 50k from a year ago. https://www.interest.co.nz/property/94143/sales-activity-was-barfoot-th…

by Muter | 7th Jun 18, 8:36am 1528317382

It's important to wade through the terminology used.

Median vs average.

Index vs actuals.

If you're not comparing like for like you can always skew statistics to sing your bias.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 7:31pm 1528356698

and 'Value' v's 'Price' which has been discussed lower down this thread.

by printer8 | 7th Jun 18, 11:34am 1528328054

Remember that the data bases differ.
B&T and NZREI data is for the month's sales (and forB&T and NZREI sales only).
QV figures are based on a three month period of sales (and for all sales both NZREI and private).
Being based on monthly data, B&T and NZREI will show more clearly a change in trend (e.g. rate of decline) whereas the QV data based on a three month period will have a delay in identifying any change in a trend or its rate.
In this case, B&T figures were for May only, so had the full effect of winter cooling. QV are for March (spring bouyancy) through to May (winter cooling?) so any effect of winter cooling is muted somewhat.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 9:52am 1528321962

That's a fall 'Auckland' of 8.9%.. Amazing difference in statistics ... Do Barfoot and Thompson specialise is any particular sector of the market (top/middle or bottom) that could be getting hammered more than these QV figures suggest..

by printer8 | 7th Jun 18, 11:39am 1528328356

Nic Johnson
I suggest that B&T figures probably have a leaning to higher valued properties across the market. Lower priced properties are more likely (i.e. a higher proportion) are sold privately such as through Trade Me etc.

by Canton | 7th Jun 18, 11:17am 1528327051

Historically house prices increase at the rate of inflation; almost by definition. The large housing price increases seen over the past ten years have been an anomaly that is now starting to revert to the mean. House prices relative to average income have exceed what is normal and healthy. Westpac had a good piece out a few days ago that we could have flat house prices for decades.

It isn't normal for house prices to go up 10% a year, when the CPI is around 2%. For those who bought in at the top, look out below.

If one still must invest in real estate, just buy a REIT. A lot less expensive, and zero maintenance or upkeep required.

by nymad | 7th Jun 18, 11:22am 1528327371

You mean expected inflation.

by printer8 | 7th Jun 18, 12:05pm 1528329945

"House prices relative to average income have exceed what is normal and healthy"
I agree with this and I have quoted that I bought my first house at 4x my salary where as the RV is now 11x the same salary for the same position (i.e. wage inflation included).
However, there has been two significant drivers of prices over the past 6 to 7 years; historically low interest rates (hence greater affordability) and historically high immigration rates (hence housing shortages).These two drivers remain and are at least currently holding the property prices up.
However, due to current yields (i.e. increasing values of property without similar increase in rents) means that - as NZRB figures show - the number of investors purchasing is down and many others (such as me) are likely to taken their capital gain and exited the market.
The bottom line; I agree that with Westpac that we are likely to see a period of subdued house price inflation and in the short term some drop.
Why? Property investors and FHB are important sectors of the market. A number of former property investors will not be returning to the market until yields improve which is some years away and there will be a need considerable wage growth for FHB to readily enter the market.
House price inflation is of concern to the RBNZ and their action in introducing LVRs was a means of cooling what was seen as an overheated heated market. Through use of OCR and LVRs I believe that they will want to ensure that there is no "crash" of the market due to the flow on effects to the wider economy. The reduction in LVRs this year is an indication of this.
Westpac comments are similar to RBNZ who in their last statement see property price inflation of 2 to 3% per annually which is consistent with inflation so a net flat increase in prices.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 7:50pm 1528357844

'Westpac comments are similar to RBNZ who in their last statement see property price inflation of 2 to 3% per annually which is consistent with inflation so a net flat increase in prices.'

I always love this talk of inflation and house prices.... House prices go up by 10% in a year from an arbitrary £400,000... they are worth £440,000 next year.

Average wage goes up by 10% a year from £20,000 to £22,000

Yes these are UK examples before Northern Rock happened... but how does the lower increase of 2k service the future 40k increase in 'debt'????

Year 2.

House - £440,000 becomes £484,000 another 10%
Wage - £22,000 - £24,200.lovely 10% increase.

Year 3.

House £484,000 add 10% inflation = £532,000
Wage £24,200 add 10% inflation = £26,620.

Anyway you look at it - that's where we are..... New Zealand may as well be renamed 'Northern/Southern Rock'

Why? Because most of it is never going to paid back.... The whole country is merely (and only just coping) servicing the loan..

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 7:57pm 1528358264

Thankfully our Government debt isn't nearly as stupid as our private specu-debting has been....

by Groen_mamba | 7th Jun 18, 6:11am 1528308709

Dare I say, the TREND is in a decline now across most areas in Auckland comparing 12 months (1.0%) to 3 months (0.1%). It is just a matter of time before the 12 months turns negative, and hopefully then the penny will drop for FHB's, and they will realize that patience is a virtue when it comes to signing for a life sentence.
"late Middle English: from Old French, literally ‘dead pledge’, from mort (from Latin mortuus ‘dead’) + gage ‘pledge’."

by Zachary Smith | 7th Jun 18, 6:21am 1528309295

Auckland City Central has had a dramatic rise of 2.6% in the last three months. That would be more than +10% if it kept up that rate for a year.

by Auckland | 7th Jun 18, 6:33am 1528310008

Auckland median price has crashed 80k in the last year. Thats 800k over the next 10 years. ( or maybe the next year )

by Zachary Smith | 7th Jun 18, 6:39am 1528310365

You would expect someone called Auckland to be a bit more positive or are you an impostor?

by Brock Landers | 7th Jun 18, 7:54am 1528314880

Sounds very positive to me.

by Fritz | 7th Jun 18, 12:55pm 1528332953

yep very positive. It's great news that prices are coming down and more people will have the possibility of buying. Not doom and gloom at all!

by printer8 | 7th Jun 18, 1:35pm 1528335326

Hi Auckland
An offer you shouldn't refuse. I'll give you a $1,000 for that average price Auckland house with 10 year settlement date, 2028. You'll be streets ahead of the market then.
Need to sign immediately. Offer valid only 24 hours. :)

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 7:14am 1528312461

Agree, I'm still seeing some baffling prices in central Auckland, lot more than I was prepared to pay. As with any major city, those that can afford move closer to the city as population grows and traffic etc worsens.

by CJ099 | 7th Jun 18, 7:48am 1528314529

Baffed are you. That's an easy one to explain, It's called wide scale money laundering. Auckland does tend to attract the wrong type of millionaires. The ones with out any recognizable incomes yet they magically have lots of cash.

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 8:42am 1528317738

Yes anyone who has loads of cash, not white and businesses or other income sources overseas must be money launderers.

by Solidname | 7th Jun 18, 9:01am 1528318891

Seems to be pretty common knowledge that this is taking place - http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/money-l…

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11…

Most frequent offenders - China, India & Russia according to this - http://www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/money-laundering-schemes-in-…

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 9:55am 1528322144

Chessmaster.. V. Insightful.. thankyou

by saving_for_aus… | 7th Jun 18, 1:09pm 1528333740

I see Auckland following a more US style of development, where the inner city becomes an area of high crime and deprivation, while people that can afford it move out to suburbs (or Australia). The deterioration of the Auckland CBD in the past 5 years has been remarkable.

by Ex Expat | 7th Jun 18, 1:24pm 1528334679

My wife and I are terrorised by the throngs of mostly ethic Asian youngsters on Queen St when we go to the APO. The girls even walk arm in arm in an attempt to gang up on us /sarc

by NorthernLights | 7th Jun 18, 7:31am 1528313513

Zach
I could lose 50lbs by the end of the year too but it’s not likely anymore than it’s likely your suburbs house prices will climb 10% in the next 12 months
Only condition being war in Nth Korea or civil war in America then you’ll see more buyers in Auckland from afar

by CJ099 | 7th Jun 18, 7:44am 1528314294

Not if Labour enforce the Foreign Buyers ban.

by Zachary Smith | 7th Jun 18, 6:37am 1528310236

South Wairarapa has done extraordinarily well in the past year. FHBers in the Wellington region should have bought there. I predicted that commutable places around Wellington would appreciate (as well as Hobart).

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 7:03am 1528311816

That’s why we bought in Masterton last year, though not South Wairarapa. Access to a very reliable at times over subscribed rail commuter service. Our house is a 5 minute walk from the station. It’s only 3 hours a day commuting, beats listening to the wife.

by Zachary Smith | 7th Jun 18, 7:18am 1528312681

Or playing with the kids! I imagine I could spend that time on the train writing my political manifesto.

by NorthernLights | 7th Jun 18, 7:34am 1528313675

Best kept secret is South Wairarapa is it not Zach ?

by Brock Landers | 7th Jun 18, 6:38am 1528310324

You can't have house prices decouple from incomes forever. Sooner or later reality will bite.

by CJ099 | 7th Jun 18, 7:58am 1528315082

Nah as long as we have lots of dodgy money coming in from overseas then we're sweet.

Well that's what the current and previous Government's here seem to depend on. If that foreign buyers ban isn't enforced or even a foreign buyers tax is not introduced then I really give up on NZ.

by Foyle | 7th Jun 18, 2:24pm 1528338245

Unless you have well-meaning but destructive initiatives from governments to institute lower and lower effective interest rates. We have friends in Europe borrowing for their million Euro house at 1-2% and investing everything they can at 3-4% ROI.

by JB | 7th Jun 18, 6:55am 1528311344

Major problems looming with with any Capital Gains tax !

No capital gain ... so no tax ... !

If yo want more inflation adjusted revenue - a low level land tax with NO exemptions and a very straight forward implementation is the way to go.

No so difficult to believe the great and mighty after a years work could easily come up with an all singing dancing CGT that collects nothing.

November 2020 will be a lot of fun !

by Averageman | 7th Jun 18, 7:31am 1528313490

Gain is against the purchase price. Perhaps investors can start building loss credits. Awk leafy will turn as soons the bank kicks in. No kiwi earning and payong tax in NZ pays and extra million if they dont have to.

by Macawsley | 7th Jun 18, 7:22am 1528312921

I remember someone called John Key saying the same thing in 2009.
Waste of time he said - it would end up costing the government, due to falling values.
About as accurate as anything the great man uttered.

by NorthernLights | 7th Jun 18, 7:38am 1528313906

JB more important than a CGT on investment properties would be across the board land transfer tax at say 1.5%. There’s no clue yet from your leaders how Auckland cities $5Billion super debt will ever be repaid which will mean higher interest charged on loans to the city

by JB | 7th Jun 18, 10:12am 1528323134

Norther Lights - I think that we have to accept that one of the objectives of any Land / CGT tax would be to incentivise investment in productive enterprises rather than our neighbours house.

A one off land transfer tax does not achieve that and has been shown around the world to impose a liquidity constraint on the market which is not always good. Think industrial / commercial buildings, farms - all very difficult.

The results of the review are going to be very interesting and no doubt very debatable.

by Foyle | 7th Jun 18, 2:28pm 1528338517

Stamp duties are the worst idea ever, exceedingly regressive. Hand massive advantage to huge property investors who can retain them for generations unlike families who might need to move a few times over 20 years for school and jobs etc. It does appalling damage in UK. So 1-2% per annum Land tax sure (if cut income, GST and business tax correspondingly), but never a land transfer tax.

by stuart786786 | 7th Jun 18, 7:10am 1528312201

What is the latest on Overseas investment amendment bill.

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 7:16am 1528312584

The committee will get back to you after lunch

In 2 weeks time.

by taimaiakka0 | 7th Jun 18, 7:26am 1528313180

Yeah was suppose to be in May and now in June after 2 weeks and THAN next step will be again after........... Delay to dilute.

Wait n watch.

by Houses Overpriced | 7th Jun 18, 7:38am 1528313894

Do you say things to satisfy yourself

by taimaiakka0 | 7th Jun 18, 7:22am 1528312962

Current government is having cold feet but as flagship election promise of all three parties in power have no choice but to present it in parliment BUT are trying to delay to dilute the provision of the proposed amendment bill.

Politics at best.

Birds of feather think and behave together when in power.

by delboy | 7th Jun 18, 8:48am 1528318113

People are slowly waking up to the fact there will be no foreign buyer ban, no reduction to immigration levels and no Pike River re-entry.

Just free tertiary education for the wealthy kids and compulsory unionism for the workers.

by taimaiakka0 | 7th Jun 18, 11:37am 1528328274

Correct delboy.

Welcome to the world of politicians. Pre Election and Post Election :)

by Foyle | 7th Jun 18, 2:30pm 1528338609

But but but Jacinda wouldn't lie! She said so!

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 5:01pm 1528347673

She’s lying through her teeth.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 7:06pm 1528355194

Nzdan... I see what you've done there, it's quick, but be careful.

I actually think that Ms Ardern will enforce it, she's just a bit distracted and I completely get it and understand why.... My wife when she was pregnant, delayed a few actions in the last few weeks (too busy overseeing me paint the bedrooms, and making sure I put up enough IKEA flatpacks) - however when the little ones arrived she then ruthlessly implemented everything she had promised she would do before birth..... like restricting me to one night at the pub a week and no purchasing of foreign made cars (that was my foreign buyer ban).... Just you wait,, this one like most kiwi gals is no push over and will deliver what she said she will - just watch and see.

by Jock Silver | 7th Jun 18, 7:24am 1528313062

Is that a table of average price, or of average valuation?

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 7:46am 1528314364

???

by Jock Silver | 7th Jun 18, 10:13am 1528323189

???

I guess I mean are they average sale prices, or average valuations.

It's important that the two aren't conflated in any way. Check out https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pricediscovery.asp, which explains the distinction between price discovery and valuation. Valuations are inferred from a model, whereas prices -- or more accurately, sale prices -- are determined from transactions.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 10:27am 1528324042

It's a very good point Jock. I wonder if the Author is able to tell us whether these 'values' are the result of modelling or actual transaction prices? ... So in South Wairarapa for example, say last year 2 investment properties were sold for low levels, this year two wineries.. And boom the model says a 25% increase in everyone's value!. I think the B & T figures from yesterday, based on transactions are likely to be more realistic to what is going on but would be keen to hear from Greg on this.

by Jock Silver | 7th Jun 18, 11:56am 1528329385

I was trying for months to explain to my girlfriend that valuations don't reflect sales prices. She didn't believe me until we heard a real estate agent say "just ignore the RVs, they don't mean anything".

I'd love to hear from QV for example, just how they arrive at these valuations. I think it's an interesting issue, because both local and central government seem to rely on them to set rates, work out compensations for public works actions etc. Not to mention the dependence on these figures by the insurance industry.

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 6:06pm 1528351561

and don't forget the dependence of the sheep.. Thanks again Jock.. It's interesting, you read the whole article and its all values, values, values .. What do they say he 'knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.' - I guess it's upside down in the Southern Hemisphere. 'Knows the value of everything and the price of nothing.'

Either way I think GV's, CV's or RV's (however you describe them) are all irrelevant in a market where there are obviously no where near enough buyers able to support prices.... that's prices not values.

by Carlos67 | 8th Jun 18, 9:54am 1528408493

The last time an RE told me the "RV doesn't mean anything" was because the section being sold was still waiting for the RV. The section was very cleverly put on the market just after the June/July rating period so he had a full 12 months to try and sell it WAY OVER what it was worth. My estimate on the RV was $380K and its on the market for $695K and has since dropped over $100K as its still for sale and time is running out fast. I'm sorry but the RV is a starting point and nobody is going to pay way over that unless there are special circumstances.

by MiniCat | 8th Jun 18, 3:04pm 1528427082

Real Estate companies are putting the fear into Sellers to sell there properties at any offer given or to sell by auction, then use scare tactics to sell to any bidder or offer regardless how low it is. Property Sellers, stand your ground for your price and don't listen to the real estate agents. People are still buying. Supply can still not meet demand. Migrants will continue to increase in NZ. The slump is at its worst now. Things will pickup. History always repeats itself.

by gingerninja | 7th Jun 18, 9:14am 1528319646

You really don't know that but you clearly desperately want to believe it.

What you are suggesting could actually cost a seller money. If they get an offer now and refuse it in stubborn belief that they will get more in spring, they may get to spring with the flood of new listings, and their own stale listing still sitting there, find that the offers coming in are now even lower, that the national median has continued its slow creep downwards. And then when they eventually face the reality of price decline, forced to accept even less than the first offer.

What's the saying?... a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush? Yeah, that.

by skudiv | 7th Jun 18, 2:03pm 1528336994

You have been saying that for the past few winters, but maybe a broken record can be like a stopped watch, however I doubt it.

by gingerninja | 7th Jun 18, 7:15pm 1528355732

No I haven't.

I haven't been a member of this site long enough to have commented over a few winters.

by theglc | 7th Jun 18, 11:30am 1528327846

The problem with your argument there is an over supply of properties for sale in Akld, with low sales volumes, days to sell increasing, inventories at around 12000, auction clearance rates at 20-30%.

You have to say that if a seller wants out they are having to reset their expectations.

If you check Trade me there are loads of properties that have been sitting on the market for over 6 months, prices are regressing so the longer you wait you risk losing more.

by Double-GZ | 7th Jun 18, 7:59am 1528315165

Sold sign outside 190 Orakei Rd this morning. 2017 CV is $3,375,000. Does anyone know how much it went for?? https://rwremuera.co.nz/auckland/remuera/190-orakei-road-18969574/

by Retired-Poppy | 7th Jun 18, 8:21am 1528316463

DGZ, now that capital gains have dried up, you will too soon.

by Double-GZ | 7th Jun 18, 8:21am 1528316483

Because I'm in Double Grammar??

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 8:39am 1528317595

Well you could be a lonely recently divorced middle aged guy who drives his clapped out 80s Honda through Grammar Zones rubbernecking at all the properties, telling his kids on his shared custody weekends "That'll be me one day".

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 10:29am 1528324143

Sold for $3.17 in Sept 2016. So that was peak of market and we would expect a big or some kind of loss, right? Sold for $3.45m last night at auction. Central Auckland, DGZ properties must run a different path as I have experienced in my last 15 years of investing in central surburbs.

by Double-GZ | 7th Jun 18, 10:34am 1528324467

Jeepers dude this is massive!! A slap in the face for the DGM community for sure lol!!

by mfd | 7th Jun 18, 10:41am 1528324918

Elsewhere on the thread there is (quite reasonable) criticism for using a median price from ~1000 sales to represent a fall in prices as it's not statistically reliable. Presenting a single sale as representative of anything is desperate.

by theglc | 7th Jun 18, 11:32am 1528327973

did you read the article???

Slap in your face!

by tothepoint - d… | 7th Jun 18, 4:22pm 1528345329

Hi Double-GZ.

The DGM community are no strangers to being slapped in the face......

They've taken plenty of face slappings over the past 5 years - with yet another slapping today.

If you want to do well from investing, then avoid DGMs like the plague.

TTP

by Carlos67 | 8th Jun 18, 10:01am 1528408910

Everyone needs to look at the figures more closely. The increases/decreases are very AREA SPECIFIC so its no good just lumping everyone into "Auckland". Those that live in desirable areas will continue to increase in price in the same way the gap between the haves and the have not's continues to increase. Those people living central or the North Shore don't care whats is happening to the rest of Auckland.

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 10:32am 1528324373

And btw not bought by Chinese money launderers as many keep suggesting on this site but a NZ family looking for a home. :-)

by Double-GZ | 7th Jun 18, 10:37am 1528324639

Dude when things don't go the DGM way the one and only trick they can and will always come up with is Chinese money laundering...I wouldn't expect anything less ha!

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 10:44am 1528325092

That kind of money stopped a while ago with China really tightening 3 years ago. It's even more difficult now with our own financial markets introducing AML regulations which have hefty penalties. The good surburbs keep attracting good prices for the schools, locality, and no new land being created. Full section houses in these surburbs do attract good prices as the buying decisions are emotional and not necessarily financial return based. :-)

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 10:57am 1528325847

Cheesy, have you and Double GZ ever thought about just exchanging numbers with each other?

by gingerninja | 7th Jun 18, 11:11am 1528326702

Someone should invent an app, just like Grindr or Tindr but for the men that get aroused by property prices in central suburbs. That way the Chessmasters and the DGZ's could find each other by location.

by saving_for_aus… | 7th Jun 18, 1:12pm 1528333968

Rentseekr

by Pragmatist | 17th Dec 19, 8:55pm 1576569328

by swapacrate | 8th Jun 18, 1:08am 1528376920

I would give that more ticks if I could. Nearly coughed up my coffee.

by Rex Pat | 8th Jun 18, 6:14am 1528395287

Would that work like the youth camp app, Groper?

by Chessmaster | 7th Jun 18, 11:28am 1528327710

Nic, have you thought about going back to England or the cases against you not cleared yet there?

by Nic Johnson | 7th Jun 18, 1:20pm 1528334451

Hey, that's pretty good for you Cheesy, but no I'm having too much fun here.

For reference, it should read 'not cleared there yet?' rather than 'not cleared yet there?' - Why don't you get Double Grammar's phone number and he'll be able to work through how to construct a sentence with you.

by Nzdan | 7th Jun 18, 12:07pm 1528330042

Checkmate...LOL

by BadRobot | 7th Jun 18, 1:00pm 1528333241

.... and the bulls just say wait until after winter , spring , Christmas, Chinese NY , Easter etc , etc. Everyone is playing the same game.of FUD with unfalsifiable claims based on unknowable future events.

by Tui12 | 7th Jun 18, 9:07am 1528319277

It has nothing to do with supply and demand. It is a credit bubble plain and simple with the added effect of Chinese herd mentality (mostly laundered) to buying which has now dried up. Massive downside risk and has been for a while. Talk to any decent fund manager right now and they a short REITs not long.

by gingerninja | 7th Jun 18, 9:16am 1528319774

The Perma-bulls on here always avoid discussing the credit bubble, as if debt levels have no affect on housing markets and economies.

by CN | 7th Jun 18, 1:59pm 1528336752

You are assuming that the perma-bulls know and understand what a credit bubble is. That may be an incorrect assumption to make as not all property investors know and understand macro-economics.