Work and residence visa approvals settling back towards long term norms

Public Policy / news

After a huge post-border closure spurt, work and residence visa numbers are declining to more normal levels

13th Jun 24, 10:26am by Greg Ninness

The number of work and residence visas being approved appear to be heading back towards their long term norms.

According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment, which incorporates Immigration NZ, the number of work visas being approved has declined for three consecutive months, from 20,610 in February to 14,190 in May.

May's number was the lowest number approved in any month of the year since August 2022, and is well down from the post-Covid-19 border closure peak of 28,440 in October 2022.

It is also well below pre-pandemic levels when 21,021 work visas were approved in May 2019.

As the first graph below shows, the number of work visas being approved appears to be heading back towards its long-term norms after a substantial post-border closure spurt in 2022/23.

Residence visa approvals appear to be following a similar trend.

There were 1932 residence visas approved in May which, along with the 1797 approved in April, were the only months where the number of approvals has dropped below 2000 a month since November 2021.

That follows a huge surge in residence visa approvals from January 2022 to June last year, where in all but three months more than 10,000 residence visas a month were approved.

Most of those approvals were processed under the 2021 Resident Visa Approval Scheme, which fast tracked approvals for people who had already been in New Zealand long-term on work visas.

More than 211,000* residence visas were approved under the scheme, which has now been discontinued.

The second graph below shows residence visa approval trends.

*An earlier version of this story understated the number of residence visas approved under the 2021 Residence Visa Scheme as more than 153,000.

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32 Comments

by IT GUY | 13th Jun 24, 10:53am 1718232798

Meanwhile Kiwis are running for the exit............

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 24, 11:25am 1718234746

Who were also prohibited from leaving for a couple of years.

Crazy how it all works.

by James Thrace | 13th Jun 24, 3:34pm 1718249693

Wrong. Nobody was prohibited from leaving.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 24, 5:52pm 1718257968

You just couldn't go a bunch of places, or come back in a hurry.

Do you not think COVID had a profound impact on our migration patterns?

by huttman | 13th Jun 24, 11:26am 1718234799

I feel this is just what we have to deal with after the pandemic, and eventually will come back to normal.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 24, 11:29am 1718234965

Most likely.

In the meantime, an extenuating anomaly helps bolster people's narratives.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 10:56am 1718232988

Correction. As of today 212,635 people have been approved and issued residence visas under the 2021 programme. There are another 4,315 still being processed. Only 630 have been declined.

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/new-zealand-visas/waiting-for-a-visa/vi…

by Greg Ninness | 13th Jun 24, 4:46pm 1718253994

Thanks KW. The 153,000 figure is what is showing in the MBIE database. I will check with them to see why there is a discrepancy between that and the number on the webpage you have linked to.

Update. There was an error in transferring the data to our system. The corrected number is now included in the story.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 11:15am 1718234111

Thank God the adults are back in charge of the asylum and not the lunatics. Pouring hundreds of thousands of low skilled, low wage immigrants into the country while low skilled New Zealanders pile up on the Unemployment and Single Parent benefits in order to boost Labour's pool of voters is not how a country should be run.

The number of people on Unemployment benefits outside of the 3 main cities has actually fallen since the start of the year. New Govt clearly making a difference.

by Nzdan | 13th Jun 24, 1:00pm 1718240419

It's what the business community wants and was screaming out for right? Low skilled, low wage immigrants that don't value or question their rights. They'll accept a much lower standard of living, which is much better for business' bottom line.

by dumbthoughts | 13th Jun 24, 1:06pm 1718240770

If only Labour had been in a position to say "no". It's not like they had an unassailable electoral majority at the time, or anything like that.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 2:49pm 1718246964

No, most employers were screaming out for high skilled workers, of which we are still 15,000 a year short of from pre-Covid numbers. Only the dodgy "accredited employers" looking to exploit the system by bringing in people from the third world and charging them for visa sponsorship and exploiting them by not paying them properly were screaming out for unskilled workers who dont speak English. Sadly, Labour couldnt tell the difference between the two.

by malamah | 13th Jun 24, 1:52pm 1718243570

While I agree the fast track residency was a shambles, can you point to anything the "adults" have done to change immigration? From what I'm seeing it's simply correlation and not causation.

by Advisor | 13th Jun 24, 11:04am 1718233485

Those resident visa approvals shot up because Dame Cindy decided to hand them out to practically everyone on a visa in NZ holding a job at the time.

I am sure there was nothing in the way of economic analysis done to assess the impact of over 100K unskilled migrants and their dependents gaining unlimited access to our already clogged infrastructure and public services. She wouldn't let logic come in the way of a good vote-buying policy.

by dumbthoughts | 13th Jun 24, 11:18am 1718234285

Can somebody explain to me what the actual logic/reasoning behind this residency handout was? I seem to recall at the time some discussion around "these people have contributed during Covid so we need to reward them" (or to that effect. Then again I am not a particularly intelligent chap as per my username, so maybe my memory is failing me).

From where I'm sat, this policy appears to have been an utter betrayal of the existing working class in NZ ... which, unless I'm much mistaken, Labour is meant to represent the interests thereof.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 11:23am 1718234605

They all immediately became eligible to vote in the 2023 election.

by James Thrace | 13th Jun 24, 3:39pm 1718249961

Unfortunately. NZ is one of a handful of countries that allow permanent residents to vote. Most intelligent countries only allow citizens to vote. Some commonwealth countries allow the £10 poms who retain their british citizenship to vote without citizenship, but generally have a cut off point sometime in the 1970s so people who arrived in the relevant country after that date required citizenship to vote.

I can’t see National changing the law on that front, otherwise all the chinese and indian national supporters would disappear as they can’t have nz citizenship to vote without relinquishing either their chinese or indian citizenship.

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 24, 11:28am 1718234882

Can somebody explain to me what the actual logic/reasoning behind this residency handout was?

Almost all developed nations have a plan involving a steady stream of migrants. Shut that off for a few years, you play catch-up.

by Advisor | 13th Jun 24, 11:57am 1718236637

Those migrants were already here in NZ, so that argument is flawed. The idea was undoubtedly to add new voters particularly from the low-income households who are more likely to vote for Labour or Greens.

If it wasn't about low-income households, why create a separate application stream with a much lower acceptance threshold than the usual skilled migrant category?

by Pa1nter | 13th Jun 24, 12:06pm 1718237183

Migrants are a pretty hot commodity worldwide. Germany is struggling to attract them for love nor money, and even the previously xenophobic Japanese are having to about face.

Everyone loves cheap labour, unless they're having to compete with them.

by Peter M | 13th Jun 24, 1:00pm 1718240423

Esspecially business owners love them something Trump will need to get use to.

by Murray Falconer | 13th Jun 24, 7:47pm 1718264858

It was called being kind (to non-citizens) and screwing everyone else. I would include in those a past flat mate - she had just managed to get residency and was a bit annoyed that what she worked so hard for over many years, was now given away for being in country on a work visa at the time. The visa's should have been extended to allow for covid as they couldn't return home and some support, but PR?

I've read sob stories from those that happened to be on holiday back 'home' visiting parents and therefore missed out - all extremely unfair on them...

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 12:11pm 1718237514

They all immediately became First Home Buyers as well, entitled to the Govt FHB grants and KO home loans. This is why the FHB market has been so buoyant. 60% of FHB are "new residents".

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/first-home-loan-scheme-is-open-to-abuse-…

And now, when those visa holders lose their jobs in the recession, they are entitled to receive unemployment and other benefits. All because they got lucky and were in country when Jacinda Ardern decided to close the border and not send them home (like Australia did).

by HouseMouse | 13th Jun 24, 11:33am 1718235180

Be Kind!

by malamah | 13th Jun 24, 1:53pm 1718243632

... to the cannon fodder..."

Need someone to take the fall for our financial mistakes.

by K.W. | 13th Jun 24, 2:53pm 1718247211

The only problem is that those buyers can simply hand the keys to the bank and jump on a plane out of here when they realise their mortgage is worth more than their house and they cant make the repayments. They can always apply for a visa to Canada or Australia instead and start over with no debt. Meanwhile our banking system crashes and we either (a) lose all our money in the bank or (b) taxpayers lose a lot of money bailing out the banks.

by 1harlow1 | 13th Jun 24, 5:42pm 1718257341

It's not that easy, and even if it were, there's nothing stopping someone in NZ "starting over" in Aus or Canada either.

by K.W. | 14th Jun 24, 4:09pm 1718338179

It is that easy. How is the bank going to track someone down in China or India? All you have to do is go home to your country of birth, change your name, apply for new passport and visa somewhere else, and start over. I actually know someone in Australia who did that to get away from their debts, so yes New Zealanders can do it too :-)

by FJP | 14th Jun 24, 6:04am 1718301874

Make up your minds, are us immigrants low skilled low income or house buyers?

It cant be both.

Also ”got lucky “ to be in the country? Maybe go and actually read what was needed get a accredited employee work visa in 2019.

by K.W. | 14th Jun 24, 4:02pm 1718337757

They most certainly can be both. They dont need a deposit because they use the Govt grants, and the Govt guarantees the low LVR mortgage under the KO loan, and they dont have a credit history for the bank to check, so all they need is a job and 3-4 immigrant mates who agree to pay board.

As for the accredited employee work visa - what a joke. But happy for you to explain how all the Uber drivers and liquor store workers and brothel workers managed to get work visas, as I'm flummoxed.

by J.C. | 13th Jun 24, 11:31am 1718235067

Dame who? Do you mean Dame Jacinda Kate Laurell Ardern GNZM? Let's be careful and not be seen to be disrespectful towards our Great Leaders past and present. We're not yet a mature enough society to be able to mock our leaders without the disciples getting their feathers ruffled.

by J.C. | 13th Jun 24, 11:32am 1718235154