Rabobank is tracking consumer tolerance for higher and higher beef mince prices. So far demand is holding but they warn consumers will likely change preferences at some point soon

Content supplied by Rabobank.

New Zealand consumers are now paying more for beef mince than ever before, with the average retail price now sitting well north of $24 per kilo. And with export demand for Kiwi trim beef (mince) expected to hold up strongly in the foreseeable future, consumers should not expect lower beef mince prices anytime soon, according to Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran.

Ms Corkran said beef mince was traditionally the domain of the price conscious consumer, but recent price increases mean this is no longer the case.

“Off the back of incredibly strong demand for trim beef across the last couple of years – especially out of the US – we’ve seen local retail prices for beef climb rapidly,” she said.

“If we go back to early 2024, the average price for beef mince was around $18 per kilo, however, since then it’s been on a rapid upwards ascent, and the average price in July 2026 now sits at above $24.40 per kilo – more than 30% higher than it was just two and a half years ago.”

“Historically it's been a real go-to red meat option because it is very versatile in terms of what you can do with it, but now it's not really the cheap option it once was.”

Ms Corkran said the rapid rise in New Zealand retail beef mince prices was in direct contrast to price trends for chicken and pork which had remained relatively flat over the last two and a half years

“If we look at retail prices for chicken breast and pork loin chops for example, they’re currently averaging $14.80 per kilo and $16.70 per kilo respectively, so chicken breast is actually and bit less expensive than it was in early 2024 and pork loin chops nearly exactly the same price.”

Ms Corkran said global prices for beef mince were expected to remain elevated in the short-to-medium term due to low global beef supply.

“Here in New Zealand and around the world, beef supply is pretty tight and, as a result, we’re likely to see beef mince prices remain elevated well into 2027.

“This is, of course, great for Kiwi beef exporters, but it’s much less welcome news for shoppers looking to keep their weekly food bill down.”

Are higher beef prices changing consumer behaviour?

With the pricing gap between beef and other protein options continuing to grow in New Zealand and around the world, Ms Corkran said, Rabobank’s global research team was closely monitoring how higher beef prices were impacting consumer consumption patterns.

“In the US beef market, my colleagues there have actually been a bit surprised by just how resilient beef demand has been in spite of the record-high prices,” she said.

“And that kind of tells us that US consumers aren't quite walking away from beef at this point, but they are changing within the category what they're purchasing, and in 2026 it appears US beef demand is recalibrating at record high prices, rather than collapsing.

“In the US, we are hearing that the main present-day concern is not that consumers have stopped buying beef, but that retailers and foodservice may have pushed prices to the edge of consumer tolerance, especially for higher-value cuts,” she said.

Leading on from this, Ms Corkran said, rising beef prices were resulting in some significant changes at a global level – particularly in the foodservice category.

“In food service, and especially within quick service restaurant (QSR) channels where burgers are a core traffic driver, operators are increasingly challenged by beef cost inflation,” she said.

“As a result, many chains continue to lean into chicken-based menu innovation and value offerings to protect margins and capture market share.”

Ms Corkran pointed to recent changes to McDonald’s New Zealand menu as a local example of how quick service restaurants continue to expand chicken offerings.

“In 2025, McDonalds introduced several new chicken items to its New Zealand menu, including the Chicken McCrispy1 and Chicken McWings2 .”

At the household level, Ms Corkran said, persistently high beef prices also raise the risk of consumers trading down to lower-cost proteins such as chicken, reinforcing the favourable demand outlook for poultry relative to beef at a local level.

“At this stage we’re yet to see any evidence of lower demand for beef mince here in New Zealand but, at some stage, we think there will be a point where the consumer says these high prices are getting too much for me, and this might prompt a more concerted switch to either smaller volumes purchased or lower priced protein options.”