Steady as she goes – rural confidence unchanged and net positive for a ninth straight quarter, as measured by the Rabobank third quarter 2026 survey

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Strong prices for New Zealand’s key agri commodities continue to boost farmer confidence in the outlook for the broader agri economy, the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has found. 

The latest survey – completed between 17 August and 4 September – found farmer sentiment was unchanged from June, at a net reading of +14%, with the latest result extending the run of net positive confidence readings to nine straight quarters. 

The quarter three survey found 30% of farmers were now expecting the performance of the broader agri economy to improve in the year ahead (up slightly from 29% in the previous quarter), while the number expecting conditions to worsen rose to 16% (from 15% previously). The remaining 52% of farmers expected conditions to stay the same (54% previously).

Rabobank New Zealand CEO Todd Charteris said farmers remained broadly upbeat off the back of continued strong returns and positive pricing outlooks. “For the majority of farmers, the income side of the balance sheet remains robust and the prospects for pricing over the year ahead continue to be positive,” he said.

 “Slowing global dairy production growth and restrained global supply of beef and sheepmeat is expected to support firm pricing for New Zealand dairy and red meat products over the short-to-medium term, while the pricing outlook for key horticultural products is also optimistic.” 

“These continued positive pricing outlooks are helping to further shore up farmer balance sheets and have ensured farmers have moved into spring in high spirits.” 

Mr Charteris said the general positivity across the sector, came despite a growing list of farmer concerns. “While the income side of the business is looking healthy for most, elevated farm input costs are putting pressure on margins, and the recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East will only have heightened farmer concerns over the price of fuel and fertiliser,” he said 

“Farmers with a negative outlook also expressed concerns about overseas markets, with this likely to be linked to general economic conditions in some of our key overseas markets and the ongoing willingness of consumers to pay elevated prices for New Zealand’s key agri exports."

“On top of this, drought emerged as a rising concern for farmers in this survey, with the El Niño weather pattern expected to be the dominant driver of New Zealand’s spring weather and to potentially bring below-normal rainfall for some eastern and northern regions.” 

Own farm business performance 

The survey found farmers remained upbeat about the prospects for their own businesses and marginally more so than in June with the net reading on this measure rising to +17% from +13% previously. 

While there was only moderate movement in the headline reading, Mr Charteris said, there had been more pronounced change among the sector groupings. 

“In the last survey, sheep and beef farmers were the most optimistic about their own farm business performance (net reading of +34%) while horticulturalists were the least optimistic (net reading of -7%), however, this quarter we’ve seen sheep and beef farmer confidence come back a bit while horticulturalists confidence strengthened, and they’ve now moved into top spot,” he said.

 “As a result, the net readings for growers, sheep and beef farmers, and dairy farmers are all now broadly similar at +23%, +19% and +13% respectively.”

"Sheep and beef farmer confidence in their own businesses was very strong in June, with this quarter's softer result likely reflecting some caution around shifting global trade dynamics in beef, and what they could mean for competition in key export markets."

 “On the flip side, growers increased optimism is likely driven by strong market demand, record export prospects and new trade opportunities for the sector as outlined in the latest Situation and Outlook for the Primary Industries (SOPI) report released in mid-June.”

Investment intentions still strong 

The survey found New Zealand farmers’ investment intentions were marginally higher than last quarter with 30% (32% previously) of farmers expecting to increase investment and only 8% (from 12%) expecting investment would fall. This pushed the net reading on this measure up to +22% from +20% previously.

“On-farm infrastructure remains the major area where farmers are looking to invest, while new plant/ machinery and increasing livestock numbers were other key areas cited for investment,” Mr Charteris said.

Mixed views on impact of upcoming general election

Mr Charteris said this quarter’s survey asked farmers about the expected impact of the outcome of the upcoming general election on their farming businesses. “This question produced mixed results with just under half of farmers saying they expected the outcome would have a ‘significant’ or ‘very significant impact, while four in ten said the outcome would have ‘no’, ‘minor’ or ‘moderate’ impact.

Conducted since 2003, the Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey is administered by independent research agency KANTAR, interviewing a panel of approximately 450 farmers each quarter.