bnzeconomists

Markets watching for RBNZ currency intervention signals following falls pushed by payout cut; eyes on Fed rate hike signals

Markets watching for RBNZ currency intervention signals following falls pushed by payout cut; eyes on Fed rate hike signals

Offshore investors remain sceptical about how much further the RBNZ’s hiking cycle can go in the near-term

Offshore investors remain sceptical about how much further the RBNZ’s hiking cycle can go in the near-term

While geopolitics weighs on Eurozone, US markets outperform, locals on Fonterra watch

While geopolitics weighs on Eurozone, US markets outperform, locals on Fonterra watch

NZ 2 yr swaps slip toward 4% in pullback induced by the RBNZ election pause, pointing to a potential hedging opportunity

NZ 2 yr swaps slip toward 4% in pullback induced by the RBNZ election pause, pointing to a potential hedging opportunity

Markets looking for signs of RBNZ currency intervention, Fonterra payout update, then US unemployment data

Markets looking for signs of RBNZ currency intervention, Fonterra payout update, then US unemployment data

US bonds slide on weaker US capital goods shipments, despite strong durable goods orders

US bonds slide on weaker US capital goods shipments, despite strong durable goods orders

Drive to 'neutral' rates gets a pause, 'period of assessment' may last until past December

Drive to 'neutral' rates gets a pause, 'period of assessment' may last until past December

RBNZ says NZD not yet adjusting to falling commodity prices and is unjustifiably high and unsustainable

RBNZ says NZD not yet adjusting to falling commodity prices and is unjustifiably high and unsustainable

Markets reduce its pricing of an RBA rate cut to 40%, down from 70%; less support seen for NZD over rest of the year

Markets reduce its pricing of an RBA rate cut to 40%, down from 70%; less support seen for NZD over rest of the year

NZ-AU yields narrow as market retreats from expecting an AU rate cut, may narrow further

NZ-AU yields narrow as market retreats from expecting an AU rate cut, may narrow further

Pull-back in rates may extend beyond the RBNZ meeting as a hike pause is expected until after the election

Pull-back in rates may extend beyond the RBNZ meeting as a hike pause is expected until after the election

Risk sensitive markets were fairly buoyant overnight despite geopolitical tensions, sanguine Stevens gives AUD a boost

Risk sensitive markets were fairly buoyant overnight despite geopolitical tensions, sanguine Stevens gives AUD a boost

Migration adds demand worries for Wheeler, but offset by other data that might support a softer tone on Thursday

Migration adds demand worries for Wheeler, but offset by other data that might support a softer tone on Thursday

RBNZ and the US Fed get all the market focus; markets see RBNZ wavering, wary of US CPI uptick

RBNZ and the US Fed get all the market focus; markets see RBNZ wavering, wary of US CPI uptick

NZD holds up well avoiding plunging and then surging global risk appetite; RBNZ will be eyeing todays migration data

NZD holds up well avoiding plunging and then surging global risk appetite; RBNZ will be eyeing todays migration data

NZGBs enjoy a decent price rally. NZ swaps and bonds closed down on Friday by 3-8 bps

NZGBs enjoy a decent price rally. NZ swaps and bonds closed down on Friday by 3-8 bps

Random shooting down of passenger plane, continuation of conflict in Gaza and potential Chinese bond default sees volatility index spike and NZD fall

Random shooting down of passenger plane, continuation of conflict in Gaza and potential Chinese bond default sees volatility index spike and NZD fall

Overnight Ukraine jetliner crash sees UST 10yr yields fall sharply, now near 2014 lows

Overnight Ukraine jetliner crash sees UST 10yr yields fall sharply, now near 2014 lows

Market focused on ugly Chinese housing data which sees sell off in AUD and NZD; NZD worst performer by handy margin

Market focused on ugly Chinese housing data which sees sell off in AUD and NZD; NZD worst performer by handy margin

'We still consider a July rate hike effectively a done deal, since we can’t imagine the RBNZ would be pleased with market interest rates falling further': BNZ

'We still consider a July rate hike effectively a done deal, since we can’t imagine the RBNZ would be pleased with market interest rates falling further': BNZ

NZD takes a modest fall on a major change in dairy prices, but it could be unwound if today's CPI is higher than expected

NZD takes a modest fall on a major change in dairy prices, but it could be unwound if today's CPI is higher than expected

Swaps move higher without offshore receiving support; today's CPI data unlikely to deter RBNZ from hiking again next week

Swaps move higher without offshore receiving support; today's CPI data unlikely to deter RBNZ from hiking again next week

Data and risk-on fail to keep the NZD party rising; VIX falls back again. Markets look to Yellen for boost but may be disappointed

Data and risk-on fail to keep the NZD party rising; VIX falls back again. Markets look to Yellen for boost but may be disappointed

Skinny trading but yields rise both locally and internationally; eyes on Yellen testimony and RBA minutes

Skinny trading but yields rise both locally and internationally; eyes on Yellen testimony and RBA minutes

Stevens' talk ineffective, Portugal risk pullback, markets await a big load of key US data

Stevens' talk ineffective, Portugal risk pullback, markets await a big load of key US data