bnzeconomists

Global bond yields edge higher; reforms at risk in EU elections

Global bond yields edge higher; reforms at risk in EU elections

Mixed US data, China housing data points to weakness, iron ore prices falling, risk appetite still high

Mixed US data, China housing data points to weakness, iron ore prices falling, risk appetite still high

NZ yield curve flattest in a year with 10yr swap at lowest since August 2013; more curve flattening expected on rising short rates

NZ yield curve flattest in a year with 10yr swap at lowest since August 2013; more curve flattening expected on rising short rates

NZ yields climb off intra-day lows following Budget; Govt bond auction today will be closely watched as yields look unattractive at current levels

NZ yields climb off intra-day lows following Budget; Govt bond auction today will be closely watched as yields look unattractive at current levels

Strong US economic data is being ignored as market focuses on negative Eurozone reports; US and European equities decline

Strong US economic data is being ignored as market focuses on negative Eurozone reports; US and European equities decline

Continued low interest rate environment globally providing underlying support for NZD; fundamentals suggest NZD should be weaker

Continued low interest rate environment globally providing underlying support for NZD; fundamentals suggest NZD should be weaker

Eyes on Financial Stability Report as RBNZ bosses to be grilled on policy settings

Eyes on Financial Stability Report as RBNZ bosses to be grilled on policy settings

New LGFA bond supply welcomed by a market relatively starved of corporate or NZGB issuance

New LGFA bond supply welcomed by a market relatively starved of corporate or NZGB issuance

Eyes on China data and AU budget; AU Federal govt faces a fiscal contraction

Eyes on China data and AU budget; AU Federal govt faces a fiscal contraction

Good hedging value in 2-4-year swap rates at current levels; but USTs 'susceptible to a rally'

Good hedging value in 2-4-year swap rates at current levels; but USTs 'susceptible to a rally'

Low volatility settles in; no budget release surprises expected on either side of Tasman

Low volatility settles in; no budget release surprises expected on either side of Tasman

Yields on NZGB23s at lowest level since early last August. Spreads to AU and US equivalents fall to bottom of ranges

Yields on NZGB23s at lowest level since early last August. Spreads to AU and US equivalents fall to bottom of ranges

Yellen reiterates previous message on interest rates in front of Senate; Draghi steals limelight with Euro comments; strong Aussie employment numbers sees heavy NZD/AUD selling

Yellen reiterates previous message on interest rates in front of Senate; Draghi steals limelight with Euro comments; strong Aussie employment numbers sees heavy NZD/AUD selling

No surprises in either the ECB or BofE decisions, but ECB gives clear signal is is ready to act 'next time'

No surprises in either the ECB or BofE decisions, but ECB gives clear signal is is ready to act 'next time'

NZD fell locally on Wheeler's speech but overnight markets were unconvinced; eyes on AU unemployment data due

NZD fell locally on Wheeler's speech but overnight markets were unconvinced; eyes on AU unemployment data due

Wheeler comments set scene for future OCR changes, changing timing but not quantum

Wheeler comments set scene for future OCR changes, changing timing but not quantum

Current elevated level of NZ TWI may impact near-term pace of RBNZ rate hikes but unlikely to affect medium term trajectory for OCR

Current elevated level of NZ TWI may impact near-term pace of RBNZ rate hikes but unlikely to affect medium term trajectory for OCR

NZD rockets higher on USD weakness; falling currency volatility drives investors into carry trade positions; NZ TWI hits a post-float high

NZD rockets higher on USD weakness; falling currency volatility drives investors into carry trade positions; NZ TWI hits a post-float high

The strength of the currency raises the odds that the RBNZ may pause its hiking cycle in June or July

The strength of the currency raises the odds that the RBNZ may pause its hiking cycle in June or July

The rally at the long-end of the NZ curve will last until longer-dated USTs stabilise or rebound

The rally at the long-end of the NZ curve will last until longer-dated USTs stabilise or rebound

Kiwi currency holds on to gains despite soft commodity data, raising angst about whether the RBNZ might pause its hiking cycle

Kiwi currency holds on to gains despite soft commodity data, raising angst about whether the RBNZ might pause its hiking cycle

US 10-year yields closed at 2.58% as safe-haven demand pushes yields down to 10 week low

US 10-year yields closed at 2.58% as safe-haven demand pushes yields down to 10 week low

Markets waiting for US Non-Farm Payroll data while the situation in the Ukraine continues to deteriorate

Markets waiting for US Non-Farm Payroll data while the situation in the Ukraine continues to deteriorate

BNZ claims 'many mortgage rates have actually declined' recently, sees RBNZ needing to be more assertive

BNZ claims 'many mortgage rates have actually declined' recently, sees RBNZ needing to be more assertive

BNZ says based on their forecasts for the OCR to be 5% by the end of 2015, 2-year swaps should be priced closer to 4.4% rather than 4%

BNZ says based on their forecasts for the OCR to be 5% by the end of 2015, 2-year swaps should be priced closer to 4.4% rather than 4%