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bnzeconomists

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Member for

16 years 5 months

Latest articles

Safe haven US and German 10-year bond yields back near 6-month highs
Safe haven US and German 10-year bond yields back near 6-month highs
Markets tank on 25th anniversary of 1987 stock market crash (Black Monday)
Markets tank on 25th anniversary of 1987 stock market crash (Black Monday)
Latest NZ Govt bond tender well supported with average 5 times bid to cover ratio
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Latest NZ Govt bond tender well supported with average 5 times bid to cover ratio
Investors remain upbeat as 'fear index' (VIX) holds at levels well below long-run average
Investors remain upbeat as 'fear index' (VIX) holds at levels well below long-run average
Positive US housing data and upbeat sentiment has NZ-US 10-year spreads at lowest point since June
Positive US housing data and upbeat sentiment has NZ-US 10-year spreads at lowest point since June
Chinese GDP and EU Summit present sizeable event risk for NZ$
Chinese GDP and EU Summit present sizeable event risk for NZ$
Low inflation reading increases likelihood of RBNZ cutting OCR
Low inflation reading increases likelihood of RBNZ cutting OCR
NZ rate curve steepening, with declines in swap rates at the shorter end
NZ rate curve steepening, with declines in swap rates at the shorter end
RBNZ rate cut foregone conclusion according to market; BNZ believes realistically around 35% chance of cut
RBNZ rate cut foregone conclusion according to market; BNZ believes realistically around 35% chance of cut
Global risk sentiment, Asian 'real money' and speculation underpinning NZ$
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Global risk sentiment, Asian 'real money' and speculation underpinning NZ$
NZ inflation tipped to top 1.6% by end of 2012 before increasing in 2013
NZ inflation tipped to top 1.6% by end of 2012 before increasing in 2013
Investors hopeful Spain will apply for official aid before EU Summit despite reports suggesting more likely to be November
Investors hopeful Spain will apply for official aid before EU Summit despite reports suggesting more likely to be November
Currency markets ignore NZ PMI contraction; good US and AU jobs data underpins 'risk-on'
Currency markets ignore NZ PMI contraction; good US and AU jobs data underpins 'risk-on'
Demand for NZ Govt bonds solid, 62% owned by non-residents; eyes now on Q3 CPI with markets expecting low inflation
Demand for NZ Govt bonds solid, 62% owned by non-residents; eyes now on Q3 CPI with markets expecting low inflation
NZ yield curve flattened beyond what fundamentals suggest is appropriate
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NZ yield curve flattened beyond what fundamentals suggest is appropriate
Consensus expectations are for a rise in Australia's unemployment rate
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Consensus expectations are for a rise in Australia's unemployment rate
Expectations of rate cuts by both RBA and RBNZ perceived as 'a little aggressive' by BNZ
Expectations of rate cuts by both RBA and RBNZ perceived as 'a little aggressive' by BNZ
Latest QSBO survey indicates Q3 GDP likely to be soggy; NZ$ loses momentum
Latest QSBO survey indicates Q3 GDP likely to be soggy; NZ$ loses momentum
RBA has OCR rate 75 bps higher than RBNZ; historically NZ's OCR has run 40 bps higher than Aussie on average
RBA has OCR rate 75 bps higher than RBNZ; historically NZ's OCR has run 40 bps higher than Aussie on average
Commodity-linked and 'riskier' currencies stronger on expectations of poorer Eurozone data and traders covering short positions
Commodity-linked and 'riskier' currencies stronger on expectations of poorer Eurozone data and traders covering short positions
Swap rates up across the curve with a notable steepening; market expect OCR cut, BNZ does not
Swap rates up across the curve with a notable steepening; market expect OCR cut, BNZ does not
Local data this week may have greater influence on exchange rates; risk events notable for AUD
Local data this week may have greater influence on exchange rates; risk events notable for AUD
Spain waivers on bailout request; IMF offers, but other creditors say they must accept hard conditions if they take it
Spain waivers on bailout request; IMF offers, but other creditors say they must accept hard conditions if they take it
The market is close to fully pricing a 25bps RBNZ cut in the year ahead; LGFA and DMO sell NZ$0.5 bln in debt
The market is close to fully pricing a 25bps RBNZ cut in the year ahead; LGFA and DMO sell NZ$0.5 bln in debt
NZD vulnerable to event risk, but recent gains against the AUD expected to hold; conflicting global data
NZD vulnerable to event risk, but recent gains against the AUD expected to hold; conflicting global data