Weekend briefing; A bump in the road

Business / news

Markets eye Ukraine risks; US housing market hot; Canada retail sales up; Japanese CPI low; Hong Kong exodus; EU sentiment slips; UST 10yr 1.93%; oil down and gold up; NZ$1 = 67 USc; TWI-5 = 71.5

19th Feb 22, 8:21am by David Chaston

Andy Goldsworthy landscape sculpture at Gibbs Farm on the Kaipara Harbour, at Makarau, Auckland

Anish Kapoor sculpture at Gibbs Farm on the Kaipara Harbour, at Makarau, Auckland

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight with news markets are keeping an eye on Russia.

In the geopolitical front, Russian-backed separatists packed civilians onto buses out of breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine overnight, a shock turn in a conflict the West believes Moscow plans to use as justification for all-out invasion of its neighbour. The prospect of sanctions is hitting market risk appetite.

In economic news, the American real estate market turned in a stronger result in January, selling homes at a 6.5 mln annualised rate, up +6.7% from the equivalent December rate and beating forecasts. Their median price is now US$350,300 (NZ$523,000) per dwelling, boosted by a record low inventory of houses for sale of just 7 weeks at the current sales rate.

Meanwhile the Conference Board's leading index tracking for the US slipped in January when a rise was expected.

Fed speakers were out in force earlier today, all talking up the need to "make adjustments" to fight inflation. Evans (Chicago Fed), Bullard (St Louis Fed), Mester (Cleveland Fed), Williams (NY Fed) and Brainard (Fed Vice Chair) have all been on the hustings.

But the White House Council of Economic Advisers told Congress that several factors in the coming months should help slow the recent steep rise in consumer prices.

Canada's retail sales rose more than expected in January compared to January 2021. They were up +8.6% on that basis, easily beating the inflation effect. However, the sales rate in the month slowed from December.

Japanese consumer prices rose by just +0.5% in January from a year ago, easing from a +0.8% gain a month earlier which was the highest figure in 2 years. But the January rise is their fifth straight month of increase.

In China, total vehicle sales fell to a 25.3 mln annual rate, down from a 27.9 mln sales rate in December. For the month alone this was +0.9% rise from the same month a year ago. The slip was because NEVs (hybrids, battery and hydrogen) fell almost -20% after the country cut subsidies of NEVs by -30% starting in January. Prior to that, growth in this sector was very strong. It seems Chinese buyers ill buy NEVs, but only when incentivised by price. China is still the world's larges vehicle market, by far. (The US's annualised sales rate is only 15 mln, even if it is rising.)

Hong Kong's city-wide lockdown to test for COVID is the last straw for many expats there and an exodus is underway. First it was the protests which brought Chinese 'law' and authoritarian style to the city, now this. Hong Kong’s top market regulator has warned that the city’s development as an international financial center is at risk after the agency lost -12% of its employees last year. A recent report from the European Chamber of Commerce in the city said that Hong Kong’s isolation could last into 2024, and that it anticipates an unprecedented exodus of foreigners as a result.

EU consumer sentiment got slightly worse in February, when it was expected to get slightly less bad. It is almost always negative, but the track isn't encouraging even if it is now at 'average' levels.

The Ukraine standoff is still pushing the aluminium price higher, yet another new record high. And the lithium carbonate price rose even faster yesterday, taking the weekly rise to almost +7%, but in this case not due to the Ukraine tensions.

At the current round of G20 meetings in Jakarta, they failed to endorse International Monetary Fund and World Bank proposals for an immediate debt service suspension for poor countries that seek restructurings and an expansion to include some middle-income countries. China doesn't want debt relief for countries that owe it money, and China is the largest creditor. China would rather hold the obligation over the debtors.

In NSW, there has been 9,243 new community cases reported yesterday, now with 109,524 active locally-acquired cases, and another 15 daily deaths. There are now 1,381 in hospital there and continuing to fall away. In Victoria they reported 6,935 more new infections yesterday. There are now 48,852 active cases in that state - but there were 14 deaths there. Queensland is reporting 5,795 new cases and 9 more deaths. In South Australia, new cases have fallen to 1440 yesterday and 3 more deaths. The ACT has 561 new cases and one death, and Tasmania 623 new cases and no deaths. Overall in Australia, more than 24,500 new cases have been reported.

The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.93% and down another -5 bps from this time yesterday. Recall, it started the week at 2.04%. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +45 bps. Their 1-5 curve is flatter at +82 bps and their 30 day-10yr curve is also flatter at +189 bps. The Australian ten year bond is down another -3 bps at 2.18%. The China Govt ten year bond is +2 bps firmer at 2.82%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is down by -1 bp at 2.81%.

On Wall Street, the S&P500 is down another -0.7% in their Friday afternoon trade and heading for a -1.5% weekly loss. That will build the 2022 loss so far to almost -10%. Overnight, European markets all closed lower in the range of -1.5% (Frankfurt) to -0.3% (Paris and London). Yesterday, Tokyo ended down -0.4% after the prior day's huge rise, Hong Kong was down -1.9% but Shanghai was up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended its Friday session down -1.0% and the NZX50 fell -0.9%. For the week the changes were flat and down -0.3% respectively.

The price of gold starts today at US$1897/oz and unchanged from this time yesterday. For the week so far, gold is up +3% and a 35 week high.

And oil prices are also unchanged just on US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$91.50/bbl. These are very similar levels to a week ago, but in between markets have been volatile. More US oil rigs were brought into production last week.

The Kiwi dollar will open today little-changed at 67 USc. Against the Australian dollar we up at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are firmer at 59.1 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 71.5 and +20 bps firmer from yesterday and +40 bps firmer in a week.

The bitcoin price is down -4.9% since this time yesterday and now at US$40,043. It is down -5.5% for the week, and down -15% since the start of 2022. Volatility over the past 24 hours has high again at +/- 3.2%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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94 Comments

by Pa1nter | 19th Feb 22, 8:28am 1645212517

If things kick off in Europe I wonder how quickly we'll forget about the Rona.

On the plus side, it'd keep our smelter in high demand.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 8:47am 1645213641

Putin is right, dead right in fact. Gorbachev was too confused & weak to prevent the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Didn’t understand or foresee what his regime change, Glasnost & more, could eventuate. A profound alteration to the balance of power in the region security wise, economically and militarily. Russia & Russians have their own way of doing things. Napoleon, Konoe & Hitler all found that out the hard way.

by Zachary Smith | 19th Feb 22, 9:29am 1645216178

Nah, haven't you heard of third time lucky?

by VanillaChilli | 19th Feb 22, 3:39pm 1645238384

Russia is a country dying from within - massive brain drain, combined by nepotism, corruption and alcoholism. Leviathan movie from 2014 is excellent for painting the real life struggles and atmosphere..

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 5:29am 1645288182

Agreed, declining and ageing population as well. Still disruptive though and I think may remain so to act as a distraction from domestic issues.

The country always has been run by a small clique in the NKVD/KGB/FSB through victory, defeat, dictatorship, communism and democracy.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Feb 22, 1:02pm 1645488125

Seeing Russians discuss the gangster-run society, they suggest it's no use trying to build a business etc. as if you start doing well the gangsters / authorities immediately want exorbitant protection money or 50% of your business.

Russia could have been another opening and blossoming Eastern European economy, if not for Putin and the oligarchs.

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 8:39am 1645213142

According to Lavrov’s further comments, Russia deliberately flexed its military muscle, so that the West wouldn’t doubt its serious stance. Hence, amid large-scale military exercises, Moscow handed over proposals on security guarantees to the US and NATO, which included demands that NATO drop plans to expand eastward, a ban on the deployment of strike systems in Europe as well as the withdrawal of NATO forces to the positions of 1997. Link

by WhiskeyJack | 19th Feb 22, 9:34am 1645216490

Edit: The evacuation is happening because the line of contact in Donbass is under artillery, mortar and tank fire.

Evacuating 700k civilians seems likely to start a war, reminds me of the time the Russians sent an aid convoy during the last episode. I doubt it will come to much more than the normal hysterical headlines but time will tell. The spice must flow and Russia has what the world needs.

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 1:36pm 1645231013

Why would Russia wish to inherit the costs of rescuing Ukraine from its failed state situation?

While the West was looking the wrong way, Putin has also, with a tiny use of troops, greatly increased Russian influence in Kazakhstan, a massively resource rich country. That may well prove to be the most important diplomatic move of the year.

by WhiskeyJack | 19th Feb 22, 9:16am 1645215402

A country with a border dispute can't enter NATO, Putin doesn't 'want' Ukraine but he wants to keep Crimea and Donbass as this effectively keeps Ukraine out of NATO.

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 9:38am 1645216730

Who could take Crimea from Russia without a nuclear war?

by Zachary Smith | 19th Feb 22, 9:55am 1645217758

Crimea would have special significance to the Russian people after the great struggles that occurred there against the British and later the Germans. They won't let it fall without a fight.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 10:00am 1645218051

Exactly Adx, and that is one of Putin’s strongest arguments. If Ukraine is part of NATO and a border incursion or skirmish with Russia should escalate into open warfare then all of NATO is obliged to come in & if not a world war then certainly an enormous EuropeanAsian theatre is opened up. It’s like having a weak fuse box controlling two huge mega watt generators.

by streetwise | 19th Feb 22, 10:40am 1645220409

Russia's objection to Ukraine joining Nato is understandable when you see that it is no different to President Kennedy not wanting Russian intercontinental missiles stationed in nearby Cuba. (Google '1962 Cuban Missile Crisis' .) USA being hypocritical now.

by HouseMouse | 19th Feb 22, 11:19am 1645222786

I have a lot of sympathy for Russia's perspective on this.

by Carlos67 | 19th Feb 22, 11:48am 1645224525

I agree, the whole lot was Russia once, let them have it back. Its not like they are going to try and expand beyond that, it runs into the ocean. The USA is never going to go to war over a shit hole like Ukraine, they need to stop wasting money pumping arms into the place its just provocation. Yes Putin is an asshole, but so are most leaders but NATO is starting to piss me off. If Biden doesn't back down then the Russians are going to go in.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 12:43pm 1645227816

Russia has huge advantages. If they do invade, they know exactly how it’s going to go, but nobody else does much. They know this region, they know it well. They have fought the Germans there WW2 and before that WW1 the Germans/Austrians and then the White Russians & their attendant western troops. They know too how to plan. The masterly Zhukov created the text book for that once he had circumvented Stalin’s rash and extreme military interventions.

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 1:34pm 1645230851

Putin’s Ukrainian Judo Revisited

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 2:46pm 1645235183

Lots of fish hooks dangling in that one. That scenario overlooks that present international borders still have Donetsk & surrounds under the control of Russian separatists as Ukrainian territory. Hitler did not withdraw the “oppressed” Germans from the Sudetenland , he simply went in & then annexed the remaining Czech territory, so don’t think Putin has overlooked that anymore than the weak western allies response. So if Ukraine is lobbing shells into what was once their land forcing the Russian citizens to evacuate, abandon their homes & livelihoods and if Ukraine then moves into the void to re-occupy, well then, there is the opening for a big red knight to gallop in and put matters right, to the extent it won’t happen again. Just speculating.

by The Person | 20th Feb 22, 2:35pm 1645320941

the whole lot was russian once... so on that logic we should give Crimea back to the Turks? India to the English? And NZ to the birds?

by Foxglove. | 20th Feb 22, 4:56pm 1645329417

Well now enter China. Genghis Khan’s empire, 1206 - 1368 extended west well beyond this region. Right up to the Volga Bulgars in fact. So when grandson Kublai Khan mopped up the rest of China, The Yuan dynasty, you could make an argument too, that this is Chinese territory. Perhaps titling their currency as the Yuan, reveals modern day ambitions?

by RickStrauss | 22nd Feb 22, 1:05pm 1645488347

Yeah...odd how against self-governance some folk can be. Why should old men in Moscow have the right to own and rule Ukraine? Makes as much sense as Xi ruling East Turkestan or Tibet.

I do wonder what folk are reading to have such uniformly aligned pro-Putin perspectives. Blogs not books?

by Warwick D | 19th Feb 22, 12:59pm 1645228745

I also agree HouseMouse.

Anyway, how would the Biden react if Mexico, say, decided to join a Russian led military alliance and have eastern block military bases and missile sites located just across the border from the US? I somehow think he would not be too happy with that. It's a similar situation to the Cuban missile crisis in the early 60's and America's Bay of Pigs invasion. To be fair though, things have changed a lot since then and I don't think for a minute that Russia would send in troops as America did then. After all, they already have NATO bases just across their borders in the likes of Poland and Latvia. However, it would be extremely foolish for the west to underestimate the military capabilities of Russia (as America is too often prone to do with just about everyone it develops a grievance with that they resort to taking a military solution). Russia will only be pushed so far and America always seems to be upping the ante there (sanctions, sanctions and more sanctions all unilaterally imposed by the world's self-appointed 'democracy policeman').

One of the most disturbing developments of this whole Ukraine crisis is that it seems to have pushed Russia and China towards a closer relationship judging by the high level meetings held recently between the two leaders of those countries.

by Carlos67 | 19th Feb 22, 1:50pm 1645231818

I agree if Russia can forge a close relationship with China, then Russia can cut all ties with the USA and sanctions will become useless. Gains for both sides that want to see the USA fall off its perch.

by HellToupee | 19th Feb 22, 3:42pm 1645238529

They would likely consider Nato Ukraine an existential threat, a lot of the western pov seems to have trouble with seeing things from another point of view, they think Nato are the good guys and that Russia also think that and seem to think Russia knows Nato would never attack.

But we got a small taste in 2008 when Georgia thought they had backing of the west and poked the bear.

While i think they are prepared to attack Ukraine to prevent it becoming Nato i think they will be content just keeping the tensions going, the panic over it alone is doing a good job of wrecking Ukraine who seem to so far be the ones most upset by the US histeria.

by WhiskeyJack | 19th Feb 22, 8:43am 1645213430

It seems like the police will let the protestors stay at Parliament, and I think this is the best place for them to protest. The disruption caused is small in comparison to the disruption caused by the mandates. With 95% double vaxed I can't see many issues with lifting the mandates but Parliament is nothing but arrogant and stubborn so I expect this will stay as front page on stuff for at least long enough for the protesters to harvest something from the herb garden.

by Pa1nter | 19th Feb 22, 9:11am 1645215068

If you make mandates then reverse them you run the risk of saying to people if they hold off long enough they won't have to do what's expected.

It's like raising kids and not teaching them consequences.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 9:23am 1645215782

That depends entirely on whether the mandate is fair, equitable & justified. Any parent who imposes rules, or whatever on their children, which may not be worthy or fair and then insists on prosecuting them regardless of any consideration as to whether or not they are detrimental to the child, is going to end up with either a rebellious or unhappy child or both. Consequences don’t work just in one direction do they.

by Pa1nter | 19th Feb 22, 9:37am 1645216669

Yeah so the country is torn, either the parents are unreasonable tyrants, or maybe some of the kids have ADHD or something and can't follow rules.

by Brock Landers | 19th Feb 22, 11:49am 1645224543

Maybe both.

by WhiskeyJack | 19th Feb 22, 9:22am 1645215779

Yeah the whole pandemic has been an exercise in obedience which up until now we have done very well at. However just because you are a parent, doesn't automatically make you 'always right' and never to be questioned. That is called being a tyrant and not useful parenting. The Science™ has been changing constantly during the pandemic and it will change again.

by J.C. | 19th Feb 22, 12:33pm 1645227188

Like how you've trademarked the science there WJ. The left-leaning, NZ govt supporters on Twitter are going nuts at the moment. Not just on the science, but also because they believe the 'team of 5 million' harmony has been trashed and Jacinda is cowering nobody knows where and not facing the music.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 12:54pm 1645228477

Must be hard for her to decide whether she will spend her day in the fortress or in the bunker. Reminds me of my father’s remark concerning some of those (not many though I took that to be) he served with in WW2, something like - those that are in the front ranks for medals are invariably well behind the lines when action commences.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 1:16pm 1645229808

“The Science” NZ background papers have been released & have actually been a black box internal non peer reviewed set of papers funded directly by the PM. And extrapolated by the team of advisors. Few international peer reviewed papers were behind the restrictions rules & laws.

https://hatchardreport.com/the-jacinda-papers/?fbclid=IwAR3rlvvtfPVJPb4…

by Passerby | 19th Feb 22, 3:20pm 1645237227

Where is it that we can view the actual papers would you know?

by Zachary Smith | 19th Feb 22, 9:32am 1645216324

That's just silly Pa1nter. Mandates are being dropped all over the world.

by Pa1nter | 19th Feb 22, 9:34am 1645216468

Yeah, at differing frequencies, based on how much Rona has already gone through a population.

So it'll be us, but probably in a few more months.

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 9:42am 1645216962

I agree painter, but why oh why can't they come out and say something to that effect??

It's just a little bit hard for the wokesters to do that init.

But it's even worse, they released a statement on behalf of parliament yday, and who released it? Trevor goddam Mallard for crying out loud.

So we have 120+ politicians in parliament?

And they chose the one person that has singlehandedly galvinised the protesters together to release the first statement?

Astonishing, I thought he would have been buried in a cave and not let out until this protest had been disbanded or they'd lost the next election, whichever came first...

I really want labour to do well but they're just utter clowns at the moment.

by LASSET | 19th Feb 22, 10:41am 1645220474

Trevor Mallard speaks for Parliament.

The reason for that, is he is the Speaker of the House of Representatives.

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 10:44am 1645220665

Yes, I get that, but wouldn't you choose someone else? Or find another way to deliver the same message.

Anything to keep his name out of the spotlight.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 1:06pm 1645229176

Mallard has lost all moral authority. He needs to resign for his poor judgment and behaviour.

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 10:00pm 1645261251

It's already on us Pa1nter. You think the real number of cases per day is 2000? It's likely 10x that, even people I have been talking to have been sick with the symptoms and (irresponsibly they know), not got tested. 3 at my work! They are all vaxxed and boosted and so are all their friends and family, plus we all see it exploding in case numbers.

Towards the end of the month there will be little point in having mandates when we are well into the vaccination waning effectiveness phase for 2nd dose and booster dosing starting to drop off. Would be quite easy for cabinet to say "we are removing mandates at the same time we open our borders". Would get rid of the protesters overnight. And don't believe the bulls*#t about "we shouldn't give in to them!", plenty has been changed by protest in our history, giving women the vote, dropping South African sports teams touring, becoming nuclear free etc etc. Protest is EXACTLY how stuff is changed that feels wrong to the population.

Don't forget, they promised us the mandates would only ever be temporary (and so they should). When exactly is a "good time" to remove them if now isn't? Because that whole super spreader event down at parliament will see case numbers explode...

by RickStrauss | 22nd Feb 22, 1:08pm 1645488538

Yes, and seemingly to the surprise of many the legislation for mandates was written with the expiring of mandates in mind. Not sure why anyone would think they might persist for ever or beyond their medical usefulness. People see what they want to see, perhaps.

by FCM | 19th Feb 22, 9:20am 1645215617

If they weren't so arrogant and self centered at the start, and meet the original protest then they probably wouldn't be in this position. The longer they stay behind their doors, the stronger the movement gets. Laughing stock of the world. See they even had a hangi last night, got some neon lights plugged into parliaments grid....lol.. couldn't make this stuff up.

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 9:37am 1645216634

bahahaha, a hangi on parliament grounds must be a first, absolute gold, I bet it was good as well!

by Hans Brink | 19th Feb 22, 8:41pm 1645256508

It was actually a Pa once so I'm sure there has been plenty of good hangi's there.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 9:39am 1645216740

Funny how the Left & Media are baying for Costers head, but allow Mallard & PM to get off scot free.

Seems to be growing quiet support for the general intent of removing mandates.

by Hamish | 19th Feb 22, 10:01am 1645218087

I think its called deflection. aka throwing somebody under the bus.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 10:05am 1645218336

And not biting the financial hand that feeds them

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 10:26am 1645219571

Might need another bus for Bloomfield then?

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 3:27pm 1645237621

I have been visiting the protest regularly. At the start, there were so many "kill the politicians!" death threats coming from the protesters, it was pretty dangerous for them to go out there. Likely it would have erupted into violence had they shown their faces. Even when I went the first time, it was on edge, I was masked up and got escorted out of some areas (I use the word "escorted" politely, more like "herded under threat of violence?"). I guess with a mask on, they thought I was an undercover cop or media or something.

Now however (I visited this morning), I barely see any of that anymore, if the violent/misogynastic louts are around, they are hiding themselves well. Seems much more organised by the protest leaders now so that they have a much clearer message and have dispensed with much of the crazy. I went through with a mask on and barely anyone looked at me strange.

Still, I was in huge crowds of thousands and the only one wearing a mask... this is going to be a super spreader. With people coming from all over the country and yelling/hugging and unmasked, all using the same facilities, the perfect breeding ground for a virus. And with much lower vaccination rates among the protesters, it's gonna go through there like wildfire. Which seems to be what they want, so ... let them have it?

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 4:08pm 1645240133

Unwittingly perhaps, our protesters may well then be providing a much needed real life sampling, of just how dangerous omicron & partners are to the average Joe Blow New Zealander. Will they drop like flies like Sennacherib’s sieging Assyrian hordes, or sally forth free & easy , whether vaccinated or unvaccinated.

by RickStrauss | 22nd Feb 22, 1:11pm 1645488688

They're providing an interesting real life look at the spread of gastroenteritis and conjunctivitis too.

by KH | 19th Feb 22, 4:58pm 1645243133

No Blobbles. If the protesters catch Covid, they will jump on Jetstar home, lying about a mask exemption, and infect a whole bunch of innocent bystanders.

That's what the whole vax thing is about. It's not about the person, it's about the rest of us

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 10:05pm 1645261506

So we have a super spreader event down there now. It's only going to get bigger/worse the longer they are there.

So you are saying we should keep the mandates on, which now that Omicron is out, they are probably pointless, so we can force those people to get vaccinated and stop spreading COVID? Just think about it for a second, the suggestion that we should keep mandates on now when they are causing mass super spreader events around the country is contrary to what we want. If the government announced an end date to the mandates (say in line with opening the borders), we would end the protests and the super spreading.

We can't live in denial forever that the virus is not going to infect all of us. It's here, now and likely spreading uncontrollably. There isn't much a mandate does at that point, we have vaxxed everyone we are going to get (including me, triple vaxxed now as of last weekend).

by KH | 19th Feb 22, 3:44pm 1645238688

Any protest can stay as long as they choose on the ground of Parliament, as far as I am concerned.

But it's very disappointing they have the arrogance this time to block streets for weeks and harass locals. I expect the police to police, when it comes to locals losing enjoyment of their places of work and living.

I want to see the vehicles towed, and any local harassment by protesters crushed with full force of the law. Actively.

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 10:10pm 1645261831

Essentially you want kids to be batonned by riot police, if you go down this route.

I think the police are right in trying to de-escalate the situation. It's a powder keg, with children everywhere.

The police have done a decent job of engaging with the protesters and have actually cleared through ways for emergency vehicles if needed, on the blocked streets. Sure you can't get a bus anymore, but there's no way parliament grounds can hold that many people and their vehicles, it's really large. With Sky Stadium car parking now completely full and the surrounding streets lined with cars, they have no space.

I am with you though, protests should never be stopped outright.

by The Person | 21st Feb 22, 3:19pm 1645409970

Why should we be expected to house the protesters cars? Get rid of the cars and you get rid of the main problem.

I'm all for the right to peaceful protest, but since when did the right to peaceful protest come with the right to state subsidised parking?

by Fairlyfrank | 19th Feb 22, 8:49am 1645213797

I hope debtor nations are taking note of China refusing to allow creditor relief to troubled debtor nations , and exercise caution in putting their hands out for belt and road money. Putin like Hitler will push for expansion until it hurts .

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 9:16am 1645215394

Hmmm... Argentina strikes breakthrough deal with IMF in $45 bln debt talks

China’s foray into America’s backyard angers Washington (and London)

China, France further market cooperation

by Zachary Smith | 20th Feb 22, 8:42am 1645299779

Isn't it more like NATO will push for expansion until it hurts?

by Audaxes | 19th Feb 22, 8:55am 1645214148

The Ukraine standoff is still pushing the aluminium price higher, yet another new record high.

President of Brazil Jair Bolsonaro highlighted the priority areas of cooperation with Russia planned to be discussed during the forthcoming visit to Moscow next week.

"Brazil depends to a significant extent on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus. We will travel with a group of ministers to discuss other matters as well. Our country is interested [in cooperation] in energy, defense and agriculture," Bolsonaro said during the stream in social networks. The head of state also expressed hope that "peace for all will be established in the world."

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 6:18am 1645291115

It's always seemed to me that the price of aluminium is only really a reflection of the price of energy. Physical stockpiles do exist but are predominantly held by a few US investment banks and are, in effect, just used as an energy hedging mechanism.

The dynamics of the industry seem such that Bauxite is cheap and the price doesn't vary much outside of extreme rainfall events. However smelting and demand both concide with energy demand which makes aluminium unusually cyclical.

It isn't easily substitutable in practice either as its the production cycle of the products it's heavily used in (automotive, aerospace, construction, electronics etc.) are longer than the general economic cycle. You can design the next car or jet to use composit materials instead but it will likely be years before that change has any impact and by that point aluminium proces will likely have normalised.

by Fairlyfrank | 19th Feb 22, 8:55am 1645214156

The protesters have put on show how weak nzs law enforcement is , the police commissioner looked so relieved when he announced the plan to do nothing . This should now embolden further action as anything goes so long as you have a few hundred supporters. Our politicians need to realise not to make laws if you haven't got the guts or the means to enforce them.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 9:25am 1645215949

In March 2019 our Prime Minister gained the world stage after the terrorist tragedy in Christchurch. And without doubt, she deserved all the praise, as she conducted herself and led our nation superbly. Since then? And the big question for me has been how the terrorist was so easily allowed to purchase the required weaponry, by simply defeating a system that was entirely the Police’s responsibility. Can only conclude the police involved were lax, slack & all authority but no application. At that point, and after a couple of unsavoury incidents here at home concerning mistaken identity on their part, regret to say that the trust and respect i have had for our police force has taken more than a hit.

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 9:51am 1645217496

Many Police have seen their workmates walk away from their jobs due to the mandate, so they are not unsympathetic to the average protestors. And are probably gathering good facial recognition intelligence on the extreme fringe elements.

What can they do, force back a global phenomenon?

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 9:54am 1645217681

Come on MB, it's an imported protest! /sarc

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 3:46pm 1645238761

There were warnings from the police for years, that they weren't getting the funding needed to police firearms properly. My family could see it (many are hunters) and were lamenting the useless amount of resources and seeing terrible things at the front line. Inexperienced gung-ho owners of large magazine semi auto weapons were getting licenses with ease and going out "hunting" (which really meant drinking a lot in the bush and taking random pot shots at anything that moved). The laws weren't updated (and still aren't?) to concentrate on stopping Christchurch like events, or if they were, they were way too lax on the enforcement side. Now, they seem to have put in legislation that often sometimes doesn't make sense, but most hunters are actually fine with them. There's been quite a bit of mis-information around them too however.

One interesting recent anecdote was from someone I know very well. He leads a bunch of people handling weapons, many of who are avid gun owners, some even collectors. One of them threatened the life of another and told them they would get one of their rifles and come around to the workplace and kill them. While it was "heat of the moment", it's grounds for loss of license. He lost his job. The police were informed about a licensed gun collector making threats on someones life. The police did not remove the license as they "didn't have proof" (despite 2 witnesses and a confession). Figure that out.

by Zachary Smith | 19th Feb 22, 9:44am 1645217064

Our politicians need to realise not to make laws...

..that treat citizens of British heritage like they are Chinese peasants.

by CWBW | 19th Feb 22, 10:29am 1645219748

US sell-off continues.

We just need RBNZ to be our ultimate catalyst on NZ50 next week.

Cheerios!

by streetwise | 19th Feb 22, 10:57am 1645221422

Stocks on the NZX are still mostly trading above their fair-value-estimates, although only just. Some are trading just below eg Chorus, and Ryman is quite a lot below.

by Independent_Observer | 19th Feb 22, 11:07am 1645222077

Less downside risk than another asset class that is up 40% in the past few years and that is highly sensitive to interest rate settings (bonds and…)

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 10:47am 1645220873

Shoot me down in flames for reading the bfd (it's a recent thing I promise...), but some salient points here for those thinking of voting gnational as a protest vote

https://thebfd.co.nz/2022/02/19/why-does-national-think-this-is-a-winni…

New Zealand politicians are notoriously tone-deaf, but the recent statements from National’s new leader Chris Luxon on their Covid-19 strategy are beyond ridiculous. Luxon’s positions can be boiled down to: “I’m just like Jacinda, but without the pesky hair.”

National has a chance to steamroll over Labour. As a nation, we are ready to get back to normal. But instead, National’s position is pumping more experimental Pfizer goo into the arms of our healthy children who bear zero risk of Covid death or even moderate illness.

Perhaps their strategists are looking at the Ardern government’s obvious lie that 95% of the eligible population have taken their shots. They must think this is a bloc of voters to harvest by advocating for more of the same. Not so fast.

First, there is no reason to give any credence to vaccine rates when you consider this is the same government counting a homicide victim as a Covid death. But let’s assume the 95% is not the lie it is. The National strategists must be thinking they are trying to tap into this 95% for voters by continuing the same bad policies, but they have made a huge strategic error.

Even if 95% are vaccinated that does not mean 95% wanted to participate.

Many people were forced to take part in this Pfizer clinical trial and are extremely angry about it. They were threatened and lied to repeatedly. While this worked at first, these voters now realise that the magnitude of the situation was greatly exaggerated and they were put at risk for no good reason. These citizens were denied the most basic rights to exist without coercion and had their jobs and family’s ability to eat threatened. Even worse, some were injured and others died when they complied. Don’t confuse 95% uptake with 95% approval. These people are angry and are not loyal to Ardern.

Those that took two shots only to find out a third (and fourth) is now needed must be justifiably angry. They were lied to that they’d get their freedom back only to find their bodies are on a subscription service to Pfizer. How many are looking at their vaccine passport and wondering the meaning of that expiry date in the middle of it? Will they be free once it expires, or will they be needing to hand their bodies over to Pfizer for an indeterminate period of time to renew?

National should think hard on the above because the anger is not going away. In fact, it’s going to get a lot worse. Overseas these mandates and restrictions are being abandoned in droves as polling numbers come in to show how unhappy people are. Why does the National Party believe the same won’t be happening in New Zealand?

The lies around the Covid response have Jacinda and her hypochondriacs cornered. Her team of psychologists manipulated people brilliantly, but it’s collapsing now. Consider the arc of her lies to date:

First, we won’t mandate. Then, we’ll only mandate for a few. Whoops, we’ll mandate for everyone that interacts with another person. Now you need a booster after six months. Sorry, we meant three months. You can’t travel anywhere without two shots. Sorry, now it’s three shots. Yes of course the vaccine works, but you still need to test and isolate because you can still get sick with Covid. No, that’s not a contradiction you conspiracy theorist!

Also, your kids need the shots even though they have virtually no chance of dying of Covid, but only for 12 and over. Sorry, we meant all 5 and overs. No, we mean infants also. Don’t worry, there are no short term side effects. Well, there are some, but they are rare. OK, they aren’t always rare but are fewer than that from Covid. Yeah we know Covid doesn’t kill children but they should get the shots to save a 98-year-old with terminal cancer and failing kidneys. You don’t want to kill grandpa do you? Of course, he got the vaccine but that doesn’t protect him unless everyone gets it, too.

On and on the lies go until we find ourselves now with a government wanting trials on infants and controlling all movements of people until total compliance is achieved. They even forced Luxon’s old employer, Air NZ, to do their dirty work. As a government-controlled business, they are prohibiting citizens who want to escape Ardern’s medical police state from even leaving without taking part in the experiment. Are they expecting these citizens to travel in the hull of a Chinese freighter at night? Should we be allowing companies to dictate the medical decisions of their customers?

Public health officials have shown their incompetence and their decisions are going to have massive ongoing impacts on New Zealand for decades. They have created a society of neurotic germaphobes. These officials and ivory tower academics are running a massive experiment with no end on our families. To claim that a vaccine that was developed in months with novel technology will have no medium or long-term effects is impossible unless these people have also invented a time machine to go into the future to see what happens.

I would suggest though that we don’t need a time machine to see what happens to the National Party next election if they just keep doing what Ardern is doing.

Anyone that wanted the vaccine at this point would have gotten it. Anyone else simply doesn’t want it. Yet for some reason, Jacinda and her hypochondriacs just can’t leave us alone. The reason at this point is obvious: Covid is a religion. The masks are the Covid burqa. The vaccine, their baptism. This is not a topic of reasoned debate, this is a cult that has enabled a massive mental illness.

The question is: Why does National think this is a winning strategy?

As the nationwide protests grow, National leadership should come to grips with the reality and change their course right now.

All Covid mandates and restrictions should be immediately dropped. Every single one.

No mandates. No masks. No vaccine passports. No MIQ. No restrictions on travel based on vaccination status.

Repeal all powers given to the Ministry of Health over our lives. We want our freedom back and we aren’t going to settle for half-measures.

If the National Party’s leadership is not going to give it to us, we will find people that will. These are not negotiable terms. It’s time to get back to life and put these hypochondriacs back in their padded room with their germs where they belong.

by streetwise | 19th Feb 22, 11:14am 1645222445

I'm looking out my window now and I can't see or hear any angry people. That's right, they're all down in Wellington protesting but aren't they the great unvaccinated (and unwashed)?

by MortgageBelt | 19th Feb 22, 1:16pm 1645229764

Great piece Muzled.

National can’t really make a stand as the media would run a campaign against them.

by blobbles | 19th Feb 22, 3:51pm 1645239099

Holy cow. Exaggerate much?

I suspect the real problem lies at the top too. Cabinet have been taking the ear of health professionals for a couple of years and have dropped all balance, instead just taking whatever is told to them by the health experts as "this is what we need to do". The protests should be a wake up call that they always have to balance the health response with other parts of the society, rights/freedoms etc.

You go a bit far in your description of COVID now being a religion, you are mixing up some good rational thought in there with some outlandish exaggeration.

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 5:32am 1645288373

TL;DR.

by ngakonui gold | 19th Feb 22, 11:51am 1645224711

Haven't yet seen any of the media travel to Russia and ask the Russian people what they think of whats going on,not that they could give their true opinion.

Putin has failed the Russian people and the only option is war in his opinion.

He is legacy will be that of a little man who achieved nothing for his people.

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 5:35am 1645288545

State run media in Russia is pretty good at influencing the views of ordinary people. Even if well informed I'm not sure people would care to speak out in public.

by Wrong John | 19th Feb 22, 12:54pm 1645228446

Good post muzled. Bang on the money. Time for Mr Luxon to grow some balls. Come on National. Where the f..... are you?

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 1:35pm 1645230930

National need to put some substance on the table. Issues such as there won’t be any airport trains, or new airports in the middle of nowhere, nor will there be cyclist special roading & bridges until the glaring deficiency in NZ’s health system, hospitals, clinicians and on, that has been exposed by this pandemic has been budgeted for in terms of preventing any future similar fall down . While we acknowledge there are deficiencies at local level for water services we intend to work with the local bodies to rectify this without having to seize their assets. I mean, for heaven’s sake, this government is passing ammunition to them hand over fist.

by muzled | 19th Feb 22, 2:48pm 1645235312

This seems like a once in a lifetime opportunity for National, Labour are in complete disarray, Luxon is new to the job and should be putting his foot on their throat, but they can't as they're all on the big pharma bandwagon.

It's a shit situation for voters on all side, the best thing for a functional democracy is a strong opposition holding govt to account.

I really don't understand why labour have backed themselves into such a corner here. The mandates will be gone in a matter of months if multiple other countries are anything to go by.

Or perhaps Ardern is going to go Trudeau on us and invoke emergency war measures to beat the peasants into place.

But I always thought that was called a dictatorship rather than a democracy.

by Hamish | 19th Feb 22, 3:14pm 1645236880

Yes, just because Luxon has moved into the hot seat doesn't mean the National party suddenly filled up with talent ready to take control.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 3:41pm 1645238507

I thought the last National government had stuck themselves up the ivory tower during their last term at the least. This Labour lot have got there too, but faster & higher. Winston Peters while deputy PM alluded to much deficiency in the Labour ranks. Academics, unworldly amateurs. When in trouble birds of the feather flock together. This government has saturated itself with head nodders and yay sayers, carefully selected cheer leaders that have protected them & divorced them from reality; insulated with self satisfaction topped with arrogance. They are simply in an echo chamber, working in a room without windows and listening only to themselves and their well oiled courtiers.

by Zen20 | 19th Feb 22, 4:06pm 1645239987

Has it ever been otherwise?

by singautim | 19th Feb 22, 3:20pm 1645237252

I don't like National but they could be elected if they go into the next election saying their aims are: solve housing crisis; solve child poverty; reduce mental health issues; modestly reduce immigration quotas. Then say these are shamelessly borrowed from previous Labour promises but there will be one big difference - if National fail then National will apologise.

by Carlos67 | 19th Feb 22, 4:25pm 1645241123

All National need to do is sit back, not do anything stupid and just watch Labour implode. Too far out from the election to go into attack mode. They just need to start coming out with clear policy objectives and not the same old Labour pipe dreams either just to win votes.

by David Chaston | 19th Feb 22, 6:53pm 1645250018

The quality of some of the crazy conspiracy comments on this thread are depressing. The worst have been removed but there are plenty of awful ones remaining. This is not a place for people who have gone down the alt-right rabbit holes to surface and spout what amounts to mindless drivel. (Go to Alp's Counterspin if you want that.) Sadly, they are driving away those who wish a sensible discussion. Gresham's Law is at work here, and it is not a positive development.

Our moderation will be more direct from now on. Apply adult conversation standards, or don't bother.

We can disagree on issues, that is what this facility is for. But making up your own 'facts', or trolling-for-Trump is not meeting the standards we need. The latest seems to be inventing wild concepts about 'freedom' as a way to avoid dealing with serious public health issues - straight out of American evangelical pastors playbook, and a corruption of freedom, a fundamental concept that needs to be matched with responsibility. Separate the two and you have the type of stupidity on display around us, and in this comment thread by some. The worst worry is that those down-the-hole can't see it, or don't care.

by Foxglove. | 19th Feb 22, 3:59pm 1645239552

appreciate contra my previous opinion, but perhaps in these sort of extreme situations leave the poster captioned, with context deleted, so others can note those sort of identities, for future reference?

by Solve_it | 19th Feb 22, 6:44pm 1645249447

Thanks David. It is depressing, and most of the sane have become exhausted by it so aren't providing a voice anymore which makes anyone reading the comments think this is a majority viewpoint.

At this stage I am liking every single one of Pa1nters comments because he is seemingly the only one providing a consistently sound perspective. But I myself am lacking the energy to bother.

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 5:12am 1645287152

Fair.

by spinach1 | 20th Feb 22, 5:01pm 1645329694

If you are to target misinformation, speculation and often outright lies I would hope that you are able to put personal preferences aside and apply your policies in a balanced fashion.

by Squishy | 20th Feb 22, 5:30am 1645288247

I'm getting pretty sick of stories about the Ukraine now, maybe NATO should just preempt the inevitable and invade first? We can't go on like this for years.

by profile | 20th Feb 22, 7:37am 1645295843

First published in 2014, this bluffer's guide may still help you feel like Chatham House's finest at your next dinner party...

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/ten-handy-phrases-for-bluffing-your…-