Weekend briefing; A break in the clouds

Business / news

US delivers upbeat markets and data to end the week; China delivers dour economic signals; commodity prices give up almost all their 2022 rises; UST 10yr 2.93%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 61.6 USc; TWI-5 = 70.8

16th Jul 22, 8:37am by David Chaston

The giant chain at Stirling Point at Bluff mirrors one on Rakiura/Stewart Island. Source: 123rf.com Copyright: dudlajzov

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news American data has been quite upbeat overnight. And along with a lower likelihood of an historic +1% Fed rate hike later in the month, Wall Street is rallying.

Upbeat Q2 earnings reports are helping as well.

US June retail sales came in better than expected as our weekly monitoring had suggested. They were up +1.0% from May and up +8.9% from year-ago levels on an actual basis. Much will be price increases however.

Business inventories rose +1.4% in May from April to be almost +18% higher than year-ago levels. The Inventory/Sales ratio is creeping up now to be higher than year-ago levels, so you can see why managers are taking action on that front.

Still, factory data can still surprise on the positive side, and that is what we got from the New York factory survey for July. It bounced back unexpectedly, with increases in new orders, production activity, and employment. But even after those gains, firms grew more pessimistic, thinking it is down from here.

A more broad, national industrial production measure, this one for June, recorded a +4.2% gain year on year but that was lower than for May.

Businesses may be a little less optimistic, but somewhat surprisingly, consumers are picking themselves off the mat. The widely-watched national University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose in July from June. It is still very low, but an improvement was not anticipated.

Also still negative, but improving more than expected, was the Canadian senior loan officer survey.

And that is despite a retreating housing market there.

China has reported bad economic activity levels for the June quarter, worse than the poor ones expected. And remember, these are the official data. GDP fell -2.6% in the June quarter from the March quarter, and that undermined the year-on-year expansion to just +0.4%, well below the expected +1.0% and miles lower than the March level of +4.8%. China's goal of a 2022 expansion of "about 5½%" is now lost. The upcoming Party Congress is likely to be a dour affair with a dark economic shadow hanging over it (the date for this Congress hasn't been set yet).

China's weak GDP result is after they reported a surprise rise in retail sales for June. the +3.1% year-on-year increase for June easily beat market estimates of a flat reading and shifting from a -6.7% drop in May. The latest figure marked the first increase in retail trade since February, as consumption recovered following a drop in pandemic lockdown restrictions.

After sliding all year, China says its electricity production rose sharply in June, up +1.5% from year ago levels after May was down -3.3% on the same basis. June's coal production, used mainly to fire up electricity generators, was up +15%. China is said to be considering swallowing its pride and start buying Australian coal again - mainly because local production is unsustainable at current levels. China's climate goals are a massive case of greenwashing - ditto Australia.

China is scrubbing social media of any references to the growing mortgage boycott there. No one is suggesting this movement is enough to undermine their banking system yet, but it is a rare indication of widespread discontent over how their economy is putting pressure on homeowners. It does have a chance of being big - China's middle class has more than 70% of its personal wealth tied up in housing. (Equivalent New Zealand data out earlier this week shows our level is less than 30%.) Only 22 of their 70 major urban areas didn't see house price declines from a year ago, and that is is the official data.

Hong Kong business confidence is improving in an official survey out overnight. But given their equity market signals (see below) you do need to be a bit sceptical of these results.

A review of some key commodity prices shows inflation isn't likely to be driven higher from these. Copper is down -28% since the start of the year with most of the fall since early June, nickel has now lost all its 2022 gains, iron ore is now lower than its 2022 start. Aluminium is similar. The oil price is still higher than when Russia invaded Ukraine, but is back a lot since early June. Even the wheat price is retreating and has given up all its invasion premium. If inflation stay high, it won't be because of these core commodities. "Transitory" still has a chance of being right.

The UST 10yr yield starts today down at 2.93% and a -3 bps fall from yesterday. A week ago it was at 3.08%. The UST 2-10 rate curve is more negative today, now at -21 bps. But their 1-5 curve is less negative at -5 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is significantly flatter at +97 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up +4 bps at 3.49%. The China Govt ten year bond is unchanged at 2.81%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year will start today up a mere +1 bp at 3.71%.

Wall Street is ended its Friday trade with the S&P500 up +1.9% and limiting the weekly loss to -0.5%. Overnight, European markets were all up strongly led by Frankfurt's +2.8% and trailed by London's +1.8%. That left Frankfurt +0.7% higher for the week, Paris +2.0% higher for the week, and London -0.4% lower for the week. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Friday session up +0.5% to limit its weekly loss to -0.4%. Hong Kong fell a sharp -2.2% yesterday to be -5.5% lower for the week, and Shanghai was down -1.6% to end its week -3.4% lower. The ASX200 ended down -0.7% on Friday and down -1.1% for the week. And the NZX50 ended down -0.6% for a net -0.4% loss for the week.

The price of gold will open today at US$1705/oz which is -US$6 lower than this time yesterday. And that is -US$38 lower than this time last week.

And oil prices are +US$2/bbl firmer at just on US$95/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just on US$99/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$103 and US$106/bbl respectively.

The Kiwi dollar will open today +½c firmer from this time yesterday at 61.6 USc. A week ago it was at 61.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are little-changed at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at 61.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 70.8 and up a mere +20 bps from this time last week.

The bitcoin price rose from this time yesterday by +2.0% to US$20,961. A week ago it was at US$ 21,598. Volatility over the past 24 hours however has been modest at +/-1.7%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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57 Comments

by Tee | 16th Jul 22, 8:50am 1657918256

And nothing from ex Pres Trump, Sean Hannity is reporting on J Biden, gaffs and poor ratings, or similar. Steve Bannon is doing everything to delay his trial, contempt of congress.

by IT GUY | 16th Jul 22, 8:51am 1657918282

They sold units that don't exist and the banks wrote mortgages on them. Imagine the scope of what likely happened under those conditions.

Some residential projects are running years behind schedule as many of China's top developers grapple with huge debt loads and financing problems.

Construction has been halted on about 13 million apartments in China during the past year, suggesting that over 4 trillion yuan ($590 billion) in mortgage debt could be linked to unfinished projects, according to research house Capital Economics.

ANZ estimated that 1.5 trillion yuan worth of mortgage loans could be affected by the movement, while Nomura said developers have only delivered around 60% of the homes they presold between 2013 and 2020.

On Friday morning, at least 18 Chinese banks issued statements, with the majority describing their exposure to the mortgage-payment threat as "manageable." Most said at-risk loans amounted to less than 0.1% of their outstanding mortgages.

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 8:55am 1657918526

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales are notional, not 'real'. While adjusting the headline retail sales print for inflation (via CPI) is rough, it gives us some idea of the 'real' state of the American consumer's appetite for buying more stuff (or less). This is the second straight month of contraction in real retail sales (and 3rd of the last 4 months)...

The 'Control Group' retail sales print - which feeds GDP - rose 0.8% MoM (almost triple the +0.3% expected).

As Alex Pelle, US economist at Mizuho Financial Group Inc., said in a note last month, “the report implies a very negative inflation-adjusted number on goods consumption, and the real-time GDP nowcasts are likely to be marked down significantly." Link

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 8:59am 1657918771

From Bloomberg:

The US personal savings rate is near a five-year low as pandemic fiscal stimulus savings run dry.

But consumers are still spending with credit.

How long can consumers keep spending with revolving credit at the highest level in decades? Link

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 9:24am 1657920246

Good Morning from #Germany where the economy is moving into recession. Will shrink by about 1% in 2023, acc to DB. Declining natural gas supplies, a downturn in the most important export market US & other headwinds will cause Germany to contract in H2 2022. Link

by IT GUY | 16th Jul 22, 9:25am 1657920316

Italy still a basket case.....

It would receive vast subsidies from its neighbours. A technocratic PM would reform its moribund economy. And Italy would finally break free of the low growth, high debt cycle it has been trapped in since the euro was created back at the start of the century.

When Mario Draghi was installed as Prime Minister back in 2020, the European Union committed huge sums to making sure its economy was finally brought up to German or French levels of competitiveness. In fairness, it was a plan, and if everything had fallen into place, there was at least a chance of it working.

But hold on. Right now, it is falling apart. Draghi is about to be evicted from power, and the political system is returning to the squabbling deadlock that has plagued it for decades. Inflation is soaring, growth has collapsed, bond yields are rising, and with the country almost as dependent on Russian gas as Germany, it is going to get a lot worse over the rest of the year.

In truth, Draghi’s €200bn gamble has failed. And in the wake of that, the markets will go right back to posing the same question they have for the last decade or more. Can this country really survive in a monetary union with Germany, France and the Netherlands?

Italian politics is about to get as messy as the British version (okay, okay, perhaps not quite that bonkers). Over this weekend, Mario Draghi’s government is teetering on the brink of collapse. The former President of the European Central Bank has already submitted his resignation.

So far that has been refused by Italy’s President. But without a majority in Parliament for his plans to combat inflation, and amid demands for taking on more debt to subsidise struggling households, it is hard to see how he can cling on much longer. At best, he will limp on until elections next year, but only as a lame duck, shorn of any real power.

True, Italian politics is often chaotic. But step back, and look at the bigger picture, and it was clear that the Draghi project was meant to bring about a transformation of the country’s economy, and finally secure its place in the single currency. After installing Draghi in power in February last year, the European Union finally summoned the political will to give the country the help it needed to break out of the low-growth, high-debt trap it has been locked into for twenty years.

Out of the massive Coronavirus Recovery Fund, funded in large part by the EU's first commonly issued debt, Italy was given by far the largest share. It received €220bn, even though it is only the zone’s third largest country, and wasn’t hit much harder by the virus than anyone else.

The purpose was clear. Draghi would use the money to rebuild Italy’s economy, and create the higher growth that would make its debts manageable. It “is the largest recovery package in EU history and Italy is receiving the largest share’ tweeted the EU’s President Ursula von der Leyen as the deal was struck. “We are putting our Union’s strength at the service of Italy’s recovery’.

It was not a completely crazy idea. At the turn of the century, Italy locked itself into a monetary union with Germany and France at an uncompetitive exchange rate, and with debts of over a 100pc of GDP. It was trapped in permanent austerity, killing the possibility of reform, and condemning it to sluggish growth which only increased the debt load. It was the most vicious of vicious cycles. With some money to play with, Draghi planned to streamline a bloated public sector, invest in technology, and dismantle the barriers to business. The result? Italy would have permanently higher growth, steadily bringing down debt as a percentage of GDP.

And yet right now the results are dismal. Inflation has rocketed upwards, as it has across the continent. Growth has stalled, and a recession now looks inevitable as the entire global economy slows down. Even worse, Italy is the one country after Germany most dependent on Russian gas to keep the lights switched on (it accounted for 40pc of its energy before the Ukraine war started).

If the gas pipelines get switched off over the winter, as they well might, it will have to start rationing power, and even if they don’t higher energy prices will kill off the competitiveness of Italian industries that were hardly in great shape to begin with.

On top of all that, rising interest rates in Europe, with the ECB expected to start hiking later this month, will send the cost of servicing its massive debts even higher. Add it all up, and instead of embarking on a transformation of its economy, Italy is stumbling straight into another crisis. The €220bn gamble paid for by its partners in the EU has effectively already failed.

Italy now has far higher debt as a percentage of GDP than it did during the last euro-zone crisis a decade ago: 150pc against 125pc. It is stuck with the same miserable growth, and the same dysfunctional political system that stymies growth and blocks reform.

The ECB is about to launch a weirdly titled ‘transmission protection mechanism’ to prevent Italian bond yields soaring too high. But whether it works in practice, or even in theory, no one has any real idea, and even if it does it is simply throwing more printed money at preventing a breakdown in Europe’s dysfunctional monetary union.

In reality, Draghi’s master plan was Italy’s last chance to break free of its debts and put the country’s economy back on track. It was backed with huge sums of money from Brussels. Now that it is lying in tatters, the markets will keep pressing the same question as a decade ago. Can this country stay in a monetary union that does not work? We will find out the answer over the next few turbulent months.

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 9:31am 1657920694

EU goods trade deficit was highest on record in first five months of 22 Imported €113bn more goods than it exported in five months to May, marking largest trade deficit since records began in 1989 This compares with an €84bn goods trade surplus in corresponding period in 21 Link

by sit23 | 16th Jul 22, 12:44pm 1657932265

Bit of advice for the Germans. Don't give/lend money to lazy thieves. They have stolen it every time so far, so why would things change with EU puppet SuperMario in charge of the donations? To think the EU can possibly blend the Mediterraneans in with the Northern Europeans into one Brussels controlled homogenous people is just delusional. Luckily, it is awfully entertaining for the rest of us.

by blobbles | 16th Jul 22, 1:16pm 1657934183

As an IT Guy, you should know that verbose copying and pasting of other articles into comments is bad etiquette. Hell, you couldn't even be bothered getting rid of the advertisement placeholders.

by Mannering | 17th Jul 22, 9:59am 1658008746

Where is this from ? reads like the FT.

by Foxglove. | 16th Jul 22, 9:06am 1657919176

“A Break in the Clouds.” Some caption. Couldn’t but recall words from my late father, RNZAF pilot early days, bi-planes Baffins, Vincent’s and on, something like approaching cumulonimbus cloud formations you flew around them, under them even over them if possible, but you never tried to fly through a break in them.

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 9:08am 1657919309

Ice breaking? US in major shift specifically advises banks, shipping and insurance companies that Russia's food and fertiliser exports do not come within the purview of sanctions. Reciprocal gesture for Russia allowing shipments of Ukraine grain... Link

by Mannering | 17th Jul 22, 10:01am 1658008906

Wow ! Baffins ! Truly historic, museum stuff.

by Foxglove. | 17th Jul 22, 6:23pm 1658039038

Have a read of James Sanders “ A Long Patrol.” My father is mentioned a couple of times. GR Squadrons. Miles out of sight of land, freezing cold, one engine one prop, any malfunction, no chance of rescue.

by Tee | 16th Jul 22, 9:02am 1657918976

Driven out of Sri Lanka, by tenacious protesters, Gotabaya R went to Maldives and now in Singapore, on a personal visa. Which nation can he go to, or is there a way to return.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 9:07am 1657919261

We're getting a stadium ! ... what , that was yesterday's news you say ? .... C'mon , I've waited 12 years already , I'm happy ... in another 4 years we'll have that stadium , & who knows , the AB's may have a team & a coach who know how to win matches by then , too ... Joy !

by Nzdan | 16th Jul 22, 9:29am 1657920558

Awesome news. Well done Labour and Jacinda for getting this over the line! The previous Government in 2012 promised they would have the stadium built by 2017 for less than $500m. They couldn't deliver and their price estimates were way out.

by Audaxes | 16th Jul 22, 9:34am 1657920895

Bread and circuses.

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Jul 22, 9:56am 1657922200

Bring in the clowns (especially on a slow-traffic day); cue GBH.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 10:53am 1657925608

... why did they name Dunedin's beautiful new stadium after a bellowing sheep : " Forsyth baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa " ....

by Foxglove. | 16th Jul 22, 11:17am 1657927067

Good point, what is to be the name and what will those naming rights cost and will that revenue be spent on the stadium itself?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 11:45am 1657928704

3 good questions : 3 superb answers ...

1 : Crusader Dome

2 : ... zero cost , my gift to Christchurch ... you're welcome ...

3 : Yes .

by Nzdan | 16th Jul 22, 12:01pm 1657929666

Krak des Chevaliers

by sit23 | 16th Jul 22, 12:54pm 1657932877

You guys haven't got the dosh required to procure the naming rights. The naming rights committee will use the same agency that the Americas' Cup committee used to find a place to host their competition. It will probably be named after some dodgy foreign owned financial entity. Bit like Wellington's one.

by Mannering | 17th Jul 22, 10:05am 1658009113

As long as the name is Maori. After all, it is in Aotearoa.

by False economies | 16th Jul 22, 1:23pm 1657934601

The white elephant?

by bender | 16th Jul 22, 10:07am 1657922848

Is it worth about $2,000 per person in Chch, assuming "fixed price contract" holds? Not in my mind.

by KBKIWI | 16th Jul 22, 12:45pm 1657932323

Yes. Yes it is. Chch will over 1 million population at some point later this century. It deserves a proper stadium. I grew up there, and will not ever be moving back if they refuse to offer essential features of a modern vibrant city.

by Foxglove. | 16th Jul 22, 9:56am 1657922181

Advice from CCC is that additional rates at an average $144 pa will levied on households. An average? Does that then mean some households will be paying more than other households to attend and have the advantages of this facility?

by powerdownkiwi | 16th Jul 22, 10:00am 1657922402

They'll do what Dunedin did - bury it in a corporate entity, the books of which stay closed.

It's still the same thing; a last throw of the growth-at-all-costs mantra, coupled with the need for upward migration of wealth (ratepayers to elite).

A plague on all their (empty) houses.

by Foxglove. | 16th Jul 22, 10:14am 1657923277

Aye it’s already begun. No undertaking from CCC that extra rates charged for this project will be ring fenced and dedicated solely to this project. You are dead right it will end up in labyrinth of bureaucratic reporting groups, consultants and hidden by commercial sensitivity in an information dead end. In other words, just like Tarras airport bearing in mind disclosure of which was only made due to good sleuthing by ODT journalists.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 10:28am 1657924121

In the immortal words of that great Aussie wordsmith George Gregan : " 4 more years ! "

... yeah baby , 4 more years & we'll have our brand spanky new rinky dink stadium : fan-blooming-tastic !

by sit23 | 16th Jul 22, 1:00pm 1657933237

When the Aurora ( Dunedin City Council owned electrical assets provider and maintainer to most of Otago, and part of Southland) bloke was complained to about all the powercuts in -3 degree temperatures caused by no maintenance for many years, he said, referring to the massive stadium debt covering dividends forced out of Aurora by the DCC, " Don't worry, you got a new stadium out of it!". Chch Council will just do the equivalent.

by youngdumbandfullofit | 16th Jul 22, 10:06am 1657922803

Rates are always for the most part proportional...

by King of the whiners | 16th Jul 22, 9:37am 1657921037

The Atlanta Fed GDP forward indicator is pointing to back to back falls in US GDP. That would be most other nations definition of recession (not in the US with their panel which calls recession): https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

by Carlos67 | 16th Jul 22, 10:22am 1657923758

Things are bad and still getting worse for the time being. Biden has rushed off to Saudi to try and get the oil price down or it's going to kill him at the mid terms. A mild recession is almost guaranteed now.

by sit23 | 16th Jul 22, 1:03pm 1657933412

Sleepy Joe being actually alive is, of course, only a technicality. But jeepers, his son Hunter knows how to live!

by whakahokia mai | 16th Jul 22, 10:32am 1657924375

On another note the foot and mouth disease outbreak in Indonesia is very concerning. Australia are going into panic mode, and rightly so. In my lifetime I remember the devastation in the UK caused by an outbreak decvades ago. I hope our government is responding as astutely as the Australians.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 10:40am 1657924848

... " I hope our government is responding as astutely as the Australians " ..

OMG ... I larfed so much I pissed my Gummy nappies ... you , good sir , have an outrageous sense of humour : Bravo !

by whakahokia mai | 16th Jul 22, 11:39am 1657928377

It was only slightly tongue in cheek with finger and toes firmly crossed. I can hear my grandfather saying “sarcasm is the lowest form of wit”. Probably true but not much fun.

by sit23 | 16th Jul 22, 1:05pm 1657933547

Why is it no surprise to any of us that you wear nappies, GBH? There other obvious signs of your condition in your contributions.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 16th Jul 22, 9:00pm 1657962041

.. please explain what you mean , ... about my " condition " , because of my " contributions " ..

You're verging on being quite offensive ... why ?

by Hans Brink | 16th Jul 22, 11:41am 1657928463

I was shearing in the UK at the time of the Foot & mouth out break, 2001 I think. Many farmers were lining up hoping they had the disease in their animals as the compensation was massive. When I went back the following year many had made a fortune and were looking to buy more land.

I doubt our economy could afford such a senario.

by Nzdan | 16th Jul 22, 12:03pm 1657929806

Would be typical of our whinging farmers. Middle finger to the government with one hand, and cap in the other.

by Dairy farmer joe | 16th Jul 22, 1:34pm 1657935245

If foot & mouth hit our shores-probably all exports of meat,dairy,sheep,beef,goat deer, shutdown for at least 6 months- until we prove we have eradicated it.Aussies are talking 80 billion dollar hit to their agriculture sector -but they have other industries to fall back on.for the last 2 years the Agriculture sector of NZ saw our economy through - don't underestimate the enormity of this disease to our standard of living . Regards

by Nzdan | 16th Jul 22, 3:58pm 1657943889

Not underestimating the enormity of such an outbreak. Just highlighting irony that with all the driving of $60k utes and $500k tractors around in protest of the Government, they'll be the first in line with their hand out.

by Whatwillhappen | 18th Jul 22, 8:16am 1658088995

Props for correct use of 'enormity'

by IT GUY | 16th Jul 22, 12:48pm 1657932521

likely to see a negitive ocr

by HW2 | 16th Jul 22, 3:45pm 1657943126

If you need it, then its worthwhile buying some extra land or another farm ahead of an outbreak. Before the crowd and before the price of farmland will go up later

by blobbles | 16th Jul 22, 1:32pm 1657935156

MPI triggered a foot and mouth disease outbreak simulation with all the entities involved about 3 months ago. They run them every now and again but don't talk about it much, here is one from 2016: https://www.mpi.govt.nz/news/media-releases/mpi-ready-to-handle-foot-an…

There are a lot of learnings every time. The biggest of which: non NAIT/ASD compliant farmers. Not that I blame them about non compliance so much, given the processes involved are both tedious and difficult. But there's a big reason to have it, if an outbreak was to occur, we would have a very small window of oppourtunity to address it. The window has fallen off it's hinges however if there is non compliance in the areas affected.

by Whatwillhappen | 18th Jul 22, 8:15am 1658088957

Well Bovis was a NAIT failure, and MPI has taken measures there. There's only hope left now, the die is cast

by ngakonui gold | 16th Jul 22, 11:23am 1657927381

Biden signs a non binding paper preventing Iran from getting Nuclear Weapons.

Iran supplying Russia with drones and are friends with China.They will get their hands on Nuclear weapons at their discretion.

He then spends about 10 seconds in the West Bank and like so many others has achieved nothing.

He and the US Got know what the problems are but continually fail to address them.

by Squishy | 16th Jul 22, 4:09pm 1657944557

China's climate goals are a massive case of greenwashing - ditto Australia.

You could say that about any energy exporting country though. I mean New Zealand stopped offshore drilling but imports more energy, including coal, to meet our needs.

China produces about half the GHG per capita of New Zealand and, due to demographic decline, will likely be able to easily manage its future commitments. High energy use countries with bloating populations, like New Zealand, are in far deeper than China is.

by JimboJones | 16th Jul 22, 7:45pm 1657957501

We think we are somehow superior in terms of climate change just because we have a smaller population. And our smaller population isn’t due to lack of growth as we have had plenty, it’s mainly due to being a much newer country.

by Tee | 17th Jul 22, 3:10am 1657984253

Fred Kerley ran the 100m in 9.79 sec.

Meanwhile in NZ crimes by juveniles is in the headlines. Dairies and now shopping malls. Anyone under 16 can get a good deal from the authorities. Will they grow up to sleep in front of Queen St shops.

by Tee | 17th Jul 22, 4:35am 1657989342

NZ voted the second worst country to live in.

by alc | 17th Jul 22, 8:27am 1658003226

From stats nz link in article

In the March 2022 quarter compared with the December 2021 quarter

household saving decreased from $2.4 billion to $19 million

The increase in spending led to reduced household saving of $19 million, down from $2.4 billion in December 2021. This represents households spending nearly as much as they are earning.

Seems a huge shift... average kiwi saved 4 dollars or so over 3 months... not a lot of wiggle room there!