Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Australia is opening its doors wider to immigrants to address sharp skills demand.
But first, a reminder that the US is on a long holiday weekend, MLK Day, and financial markets are closed there today.
In Canada, the final data for 2022 shows house prices there fell the most on record for any year, down -12%. Their average dwelling price is now C$626,400 (NZ$732,300). Sales volumes there fell -39%. The New Zealand REINZ December data will be released here tomorrow morning.
And staying in Canada, business sentiment continued to weaken in the fourth quarter and sales grew slower as their downturn bites according to a central bank survey. But firms there still only expect a mild retreat with inflation staying higher for longer.
In Japan, the inflation pressure is still building. Their producer prices surged +10.2% year-on-year in December, exceeding market expectations for a +9.5% rise as high global commodity prices and a historically weak yen continued to inflate costs for imported raw materials. December’s producer inflation also accelerated from an upwardly revised +9.7% price growth in November to the highest in three months. The November to December rate was at an annualised pace of +6.0%, so that suggests a possible easing is at hand.
Japanese machine tool orders rose unexpectedly in December. They slumped -7.7% in November from a year ago and were expected to be -4% lower in December. But in the end they rose +1.0% from a year ago, and were up +4.8% from November.
In China, new home prices in their 70 major cities dropped by -1.5% year-on-year in December according to official data, after a -1.6% drop in the previous month which was the steepest pace since August 2015. All this comes amid a property downturn due to a mounting debt problems among developers as well as the impact of a surge in pandemic cases. 55 of the 70 large cities monitored posted month-on-month declines, and those that didn't recorded just tiny rises in this official survey. There are reasons to believe the actual retreats in home resales are much larger; 63 of these 70 cities reported decreases in December.
China is finding it very tough to restart its property development industry. Almost 80% of residential developments remain idle or have only partially restarted despite multiple government initiatives supporting the sector. "More debt" can't overcome buyer reluctance.
In Europe, retail commissions are banned in both the Netherlands and the UK where they are regarded as a serious conflict of interest by "independent agents" who sell financial products from insurers and banks. Those bans have enabled consumers to realise cost reductions about one third. But insurers and banks are fighting back. They have won the support of the German finance minister who is worried it might hurt German insurers. He is concerned because the EU has suggested the benefits to consumers should probably apply EU wide.
In Australia, the Melbourne Institute’s Monthly Inflation Gauge showed prices eased to a four-month low of just +0.2% in December from November, slowing sharply from a +1.0% rise in the previous month while marking the fourth straight month of increase. On a year-on-year basis, this measure is still recording a +7.3% rate, but the lower month-on-month result should give the RBA some comfort.
And the Australian Treasurer said they now expect 2023 immigration to be much higher than the +235,000 they originally forecast for the year. They are moving decisively to address their skill shortage. At the same ratio, that would be equivalent to New Zealand welcoming +60,000 new migrants, which is double what we actually expect here this year.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 3.50%, and unchanged from yesterday. The UST 2-10 rate curve is little-changed at -73 bps. And their 1-5 curve is still inverted at -109 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is unchanged at -95 bps. The Australian ten year bond is up another +1 bp at 3.62%. The China Govt ten year bond is up +2 bps at 2.96%. And the New Zealand Govt ten year is starting today at 4.11% and also up +2 bps.
Equity markets are closed in the US. However overnight, European markets ended up about +0.3%. Yesterday, Tokyo retreated a rather sharp -1.1%. Hong Kong ended the day flat. Shanghai however rose solidly, up +1.0%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session up +0.8% and the NZX50 gained +0.5%.
The price of gold will open today at US$1921/oz and little-changed.
And oil prices start today down -US$1 at just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$84/bbl. Natural gas prices are falling now, down to levels last seen in September 2021. Full stocks in China are forcing importers to divert February and March shipments to Europe. Gas storage across Europe is about 82% capacity, up from 50% a year ago and well above the five-year seasonal norm of 70%.
The Kiwi dollar has changed little, now at 63.9 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are firmish at 91.8 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 59 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.9, and up +20 bps since this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price is marginally higher, now at US$20,997 and up +0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just +/- 1.9%.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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148 Comments
The Japanese response to inflation is rather different to ours - big push from their Government for companies to raise wages to prevent a fall in living standards (and risk of stagflation). Japan are correctly recognising that pretty much the whole world is going through a shift in the price level - the risk is not a wage / price spiral, it is a drop in living standards and a recession as consumer spending plummets.
That is probably yet another indication of our present government's incompetence. They can't even bow down to their racist minority , who even have their own caucus, and get it right. This coming year is going to be awfully entertaining, especially in what they will do to try to retain power at election time. I am old enough to remember Muldoon in 1984, and Clark/Cullen in 2008. Quite gross, but unintentionally very funny.
Not so sure about funny but will certainly be intriguing to observe their approach. Because here we have a government, with mps already breaking ranks, that will be asking the electorate to re-elect them on the basis of a coalition with the Greens and the Maori party holding cabinet positions. So the question then is, if Labour can’t keep their own house in order how the heck do they think could offer and provide a stable government on a cobbled together shooting box like that?
Geneticists have claimed that the human race is one of the most genetically identical species on earth ... there is negligible difference between us ...
... which does make us vulnerable to pandemics
... but , it should exclude racism , we are very much all linked , brothers & sisters ...
Obviously IQ distributions by population, time preference etc. Read Steve Sailer et al.
When you assume everyone is equal, any failure for each group to achieve is the result of systematic issues. The assumption that genetics won't prove intelligence is genetic with the rise of DNA sequencing atm is silly.
Read Jim Flynn on IQ.
If there is any variance embedded in DNA then that variance is very small indeed. Trivial compared to variances by time (ref the Flynn effect) and by upbringing.
If you are looking for a decent argument about IQ and the presumed intelligence it measures then concentrate on the difference between men and women. There is clear evidence that men's brains are larger and slower to develop but little evidence that having a physically bigger brain is an advantage (same with computers).
You heard of the Reverse Flynn Effect? The plastic intelligence which has improved for the last century has reversed its trend since about the mid 90s. (https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718793115).
Intelligence distribution is one of the most reproducible statistical observations in social psychology. Despite the Lysenkoism regarding IQ and genetics, a number of genes have been located which correlate with intelligence, similar to how genes have been observed for red hair and pain tolerance or anaesthetic. I recommend this book examining all the evidence around this. (https://www.sdh-fact.com/review-article/1569/)
For a social science study which points to genetics related to intelligence, we find in historic records of surname matched to social class in Florence (https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/whats-your-surname-intergenerational-mob…), the social class of people over that time is remarkably predicted by family, implicitly because of genetics for conscientiousness and intelligence.
My contention is explicitly that there are different IQ distributions by race, and a different distribution of traits like conscientiousness which are the predictors of economic and social outcomes on these matters. There are lots of pieces of data pointing to this conclusion, it is simply taboo to research in our age.
Von M
"My contention is explicitly that there are different IQ distributions by race"
And by any chance, would this show that those of one colour-say white- are more intelligent than those of a different colour-say black?
If it is taboo as you contend-actual evidence for this?- perhaps it's because the theory is crap, not to say highly racist.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20712152/
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/John-Fuerst/publication/301303123_…
Read the literature.
The evidence is there, whether you want to be butthurt about it or not.
Maori health outcomes are different. So it's either genetics, cultural health behaviours or health service behaviour.
There is a common acknowledgement around some of it is genetic, the health service cops too much blame in my view.
But it is verboten to even mention cultural behaviours. Not allowed to even mention that in our fair land. Ya get called racist. But to be honest we should recognize it.
Eating patterns are cultural and that's important in long term health. Look around and see the overweight. White New Zealanders are not a slim lot
Economic factors apply, and Maori are less wealthy. But that's essentially economic not racial. Yet of course economic situations can be influenced by culture.
Diet cannot be ignored. For instance believe it is recorded when NZ meat exporters began in the 70/80s, off loading ship loads cheaper end fattier lamb/mutton cuts, breast & flaps mainly, to PNG & Pacific Island regions so too did the obesity and associated medical problems such as diabetes, begin to escalate.
I lived in PNG and reckon lamb flaps caused minimal danger but refined sugar certainly was and is a killer. Fatty lamb is fine if you are living a physical lifestyle in the cold highlands of PNG (where they are mainly eaten) and consuming local vegetables. There was little obesity outside Port Moresby.
I cannot speak for the hot tropical islands - certainly too many of the Samoan and Tongan children in Auckland are badly over weight. But it is refined sugar and processed food that will shorten their lives.
Fatty lamb does not cause diabetes. Western world corporate food, loaded with refined sugar, refined flour, soaked in 'vegetable' oils is the culprit. Off-loading ship loads of cheap refined sugar products and cans of soda pop started their demise. Diet has been ignored by the FDA and their corporate profit driven companies. Everywhere these corporations go, health deteriorates, look at the aborigines in Australia.
Māori carry so much Caucasian DNA that genetic differences causing differences in health outcomes is probably fairly trivial. If genetics made a significant difference then it would be easier to find it comparing with Polynesian and Melanesian Pacifica.
Clearly genetics has a minor role in health differences (a skin cancer specialist said to a friend of mine 'you are the first Melanesian in my twenty years to have melanoma"). Anecdotally judging by my family Melanesians seem more predisposed to diabetes. However it is cultural behaviours that make the main difference. Very broadly Māori and Pacifica in NZ are more likely to indulge in risk and less likely to respond to warnings about the dangers of obesity, sugar intake, smoking. Being anti-authoritarian may have advantages that counter weigh those health risks.
If you are interested in the causes of unequal outcomes then look at families not ethnicities. That is where the big differences are revealed.
Deary me. When you account for income / poverty, the differences in health, education (etc) outcomes for different ethnicities all but evaporate, and those that remain can often be attributed to discrimination (past and present). Identity politics is a curse on our society - it stops us focusing on the structural issues in our economy that lead to the increasing concentration of wealth in the top few percent.
I'm a little leary of the term 'culture' here. I suggest just behavioural choices would explain most outcomes. There are plenty of non-Maori who are achieving the same outcomes as a consequence of the same behavioural choices. I agree socio-economics can be a factor too. There is a whole sociological movement today towards what ever happens is "Not my fault"! This is not a racial or ethnically based cultural response, but a modern sociological action to gain sympathy, and easy path and just maybe some form of support.
>Maori health outcomes are different. So it's either genetics, cultural health behaviours or health service behaviour.
Or all three, in varying degrees. No doubt there is some small genetic contribution, but I'd put money on the second element in that list being the dominant factor in urban NZ. The third element is also definitely a factor, particularly in the more rural/isolated parts of NZ. East Cape/Far north etc.
I believe the data allows for wealth and there is still a discrepancy. Probably not the data that is used for political purposes but the genuine data collected by medical statisticians. As it happens the fairly small number of Māori I know well enough to chat to would be multi-millionaires on average and they are in good health. Despite my anecdotal knowledge I trust the reports.
Even in towns there is a gap for Maori accessing health care. Anecdotally though you see that one of the reasons given commonly is when they go to hospital, the person they have deal with doesn't have a brown face. That this is fundamentally racist is never raised. But underlying even that is a belief that unless you are Maori, then you can't understand their position. That's a view that is encouraged politically. But that aside, the majority of issues which blight lower socio-economic Maori are exactly the same for non-Maori.
Best to ask the Maori party direct as they made the claim the Maori have certain genetic benefits others don't and are also one of the main groups that support Critical Race Theory, although it is hard to promote that they have both better genetics and CRT in the same breath.
"spending can only do so much to overcome genetics"
And there we have it... Is that what your website has become Mr Chaston? Another platform for casual racism & bunk?
we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments
Are you too toothless & feeble to enforce your own moderation policy? Or are you secretly thrilled to see that your own feelings are being repeated here, under the cover of 'I didn't make the comment'?
If there's a bad cop at a station, there are a bunch of bad cops at the station. Your being complicit in allowing this trash to thrive on your website casts you in the same mold as the muppets spouting it. Which one is it going to be David? Kick this loser to the curb, or admit that you share his feelings?
There is politeness. When a Europeans such as myself discusses the high academic success of Nigerian immigrants I'm being polite. But a similar discussion about the Romani at the bottom of the academic ladder risks sounding abusive.
A genetic explanation for the superiority of those Nigerians would be about people hardly anyone has met but its message risks being applied by readers less informed than yourself. And they would use it as an excuse to keep Māori and Pacifica down. Within days of 'the Bell Curve' being published much to the authors annoyance it was being used in a US court to retain racial segregation in schools.
I agree with you that whatever is kept taboo can never be challenged. I prefer to be able to discuss it than have the idea in people's heads unchallenged.
Simon Wilson: The 2023 election is a choice between the best Government yet, and the worst
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/simon-wilson-the-2023-election-i…
And your bias is ? ... mine is centre-right ... but I have voted Labour in the past ... if they have good ideas , if they're big on building infrastructure , creating something we need ...
... the current lot are a terrible disappointment ... ask Chris Trotter , he says so too ...
Centre left/Right...I have voted both ways...just don't like the 'free ride' the Nats /ACT are getting due more in fact to an 'anti Ardern' sentiment than anything they are doing do justify their support.You would have to be a blind freddy to not notice the right wing / anti maori anything bias of the majority in here.If this was a left wing publication,folk in here would be calling all the people in here "sheeple'.
My concern is as usual we will get years of austerity from a new right government,getting ahead by slashing or 'freezing' budgets as has happened in recent history.I know people in here don't like the Akl CRL and any plans for spending money on subway systems etc...but they will never be cheaper than today and in 10 years time everyone will be moaning about the same things.If we leave it to private enterprise we will continue to get Marsden point type decisions,made purely on the best financial outcomes for shareholders,not the national good.Bring back the ministry of works,plan a pipeline of big infrastruture projects and get on with them.
I think Labour have tried to get the ball rolling with the Infrastructure commision etc and light rail etc,but too many vested interests get in the way.Trucking lobby etc stall rail improvements etc.
A few Labour achievements below (in addition with dealing with a global pandemeic ;-)
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/01/13/national-party-spin-lines-are-stu…
Sound a bit like me. My first ever vote was for Nash in 1960 then continued with Labour all the way up to Kirk 1972. Then voted for Muldoon 3 times about which I am now quite ashamed. Haven’t voted National since except for Key’s first term. Still not sure this year but like the great majority of my contemporaries the first priority is for this Labour government to be removed from power, whatever it takes.
I voted National in Key's first term (my first year of voter eligibility). What a disappointment. ACT ever since, which is more or less a vote for National anyway.........
Clean out 90% of National, replace with some fresh people with relevant real world experience, and I might give them a second look.
Doh, typo, Morgan Godfery.
Morgan Godfery is a senior lecturer in the department of marketing at the University of Otago. He has a background in journalism and public policy, including as a parliamentary staffer with the Labour Party. He is a regular opinion contributor to Stuff.
Probably about all you need to know. I'm sure he will be most offended that you mis-gendered him, (or not, who can tell these days.*shrug*)
I'm no great National fanboy, but I really can't think of any aspect of mine or my family's day-to-day life that is better under Labour than it was under the previous government, and so I'll be voting accordingly.
I don't think Labour is as bad as some make out, and I appreciate some within the population have benefitted (although I really dislike how beholden they are to a particular cohort within the party to the detriment of other , and in the words of Theo Profiterole from Dragon's Den, 'for that reason, I'm out').
I don't like the red people, so will vote for the blue people cos there is only two choices. When they deliver the same uselessness, I will switch colours again.
When will people realise they are basically the same party, neither of them with any real clue and both obsessed with their own ideology and/or captured by special interests, which is why they both are pretty terrible.
Identity politics, a way for people to feign a status symbol. A good chunk probably own goal themselves by voting National, but it's the status of voting the party for "big businesses and the wealthy" and looking down at those feral Labour voters. A bit like kids running around throwing "bloods vs crips".
- "Why are you crips?"
- "Aww gee, well my mate hooked me up"
- "Why is your mate crips?"
- "Uhh, bro why did you say you joined crips again?........Oh, cause you like the colour blue and the name Tookie Williams?"
- "He's, uh, got family in it."
Nothing wrong with a couple of consecutive quarters of negative growth - in fact we probably need dozens in a row in countries that are consuming way more than their fair share. The issue is not the fall in GDP, it is the pain that recessions cause for those at the bottom - the people thrown out of work who lose their homes and their minds, the rural towns that effectively close down and never recover.
I could live with managed negative growth, and even a fall in in GDP. Where countries, especially supposedly 'democratic' ones are failing the most is the lack of concern for the impact of economic policies and failures on those at the bottom. As you say the pain the recessions cause at the bottom. Labour wouldn't have to cosy up to a minority elite of Maoridom if they ensured their policies benefited all Kiwi's fairly and equitably.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/16/central-banks-risk-sett…
"The FSB says the ‘non-bank’ shadow sector today accounts for half of the total $487 trillion of financial assets worldwide. It warns that over $50 trillion of this is “susceptible to runs” if liquidity dries up or there is an external shock.
To borrow Warren Buffett’s famous adage, you only discover who is swimming naked when the tide goes out."
Along with inflation & skills shortages,it seems potholes are a global issue...
https://www.news.com.au/world/uk-blighted-by-pothole-crisis-after-chris…
https://www.news.com.au/world/uk-blighted-by-pothole-crisis-after-chris…
https://www.news.com.au/world/uk-blighted-by-pothole-crisis-after-chris…
https://www.news.com.au/world/drivers-raising-concerns-over-potholes-on…
Amazing how the road damage was fore warned by many:
https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2010/04/03/heavier-trucks-approved/
excerpt:
The economics of this issue are quite interesting really. The damage done to roads is not directly equivalent to the extra weight of a vehicle on it, but rather equates to what is known as the “Fourth Power Rule“. As the weight on the road from each axle of a truck increases, the amount of damage done to the road increases by the fourth power. This means that a 20% increase in axle weight results in more than double the road damage.
53 tonne trucks may well have more axles than 44 tonne trucks, but if they didn’t my calculation is that they would do roughly double the road damage. It appears somewhat unlikely that these heavier trucks will have to pay twice the road-user charge than the current 44 tonne trucks. If they do pay twice the amount, then I wouldn’t nearly have as much of an issue with this change.
The question is not who pays. It is obvious who pays.
The question is why, after your information showing 12 years of advance warning, the roading authorities are not able to maintain the roads under this government.
Suddenly and magically the roads have broken and we can observe that nobody was prepared. So: either it was not a foregone conclusion, or it was and the current govt did not listen, or the cause was something entirely different.
Been pretty quiet from Mr Luxon too...I can confirm having passed through Te Puke over Xmas,that he didn't appear to be there...and I must say I was some what under whelmed with Te Puke,no palm trees,no sandy beach...folk were just looking strangely at me wearing my Hawaiin shirt...
Looking at their migration stats, nurses made up the largest chunk of approved PRs. Building tradespeople, machinists and teachers were next in line. Engineers and doctors made a sizeable proportion of PRs but the numbers tend to get split into many specialisations on the occupation list.
We still dished out more residencies to chefs, cafe workers and retail staff than to any other occupation over Covid. We provided residency to 22 GPs and 5 surgeons in the same period.
Just because we receive disproportionately more PR applications from tourism and hospo workers than medical workers, we ought to approve them? Even migrants on work visas over 2 years receive full health cover by Health NZ.
Perhaps INZ should be more than just a visa stamping agency and do the obvious such as capping visas issued by occupation to ensure enough critical workers are entering NZ alongside the others. The Canadians and Aussies do it.
INZ is not a visa stamping agency. They are an evil bureaucratic monster. Six years ago my son-in-law applied for a tourist visa to come to NZ to attend the birth of his child with is Kiwi partner (my daughter). The application was processed in a foreign country 3,500km from his home and 2,100km from his partner in Auckland. Except it was not processed - it staying in an in-tray for a couple of months and was only processed a month after my grandchild was born when we used contacts at the High Commission in Wellington to lean on them. I have a friend with an even worse story trying to get a tourist visa for his mother-in-law. It was six years ago but I will never forgive them. I can accept INZ making mistakes but I cannot forgive the control by deliberate bureaucratic delay. BTW all other NZ govt departments have provided me with superb service.
No doubt INZ is dire. I wonder why especially when I dealing with MSD seniors dept and the passport Office I've had truly wonderful service - care, empathy, efficiency - common traits for Kiwis but all words never to be used about INZ. My theory is that any immigration dept decides if you are IN or if you are OUT. They will have numerous situations where miniscule differences make a major difference to people's lives. To achieve their unofficial quotas, they use bureaucracy - with the talented applicants moving on and the less talented stubbornly hanging in. So the good employees leave INZ. The remainder keep their heads down. The solution would be a public debate, clear instruction as to what NZ is trying to achieve with immigration, charges for Visas increased until INZ can afford more and better staff.
That time pharma marketing was in charge of the experimental gene therapy rollout.
"'Two Shots for Summer' was the New Zealand government's edgy tag line to get young people vaccinated. The only problem was that it was contrary to the health advice.
...CV TAG does not want to see two doses of vaccine absolutely required to under 18s to be able to work"
"CV TAG’s 17 August meeting which somewhat concerningly records that a request had been made that references to increasing dosing intervals as a method of potentially providing some protection against myocarditis should be removed from public communications"
https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-2?r=1q83zj&…
https://cranmer.substack.com/p/covid-and-our-kiwi-kids-part-1
We used to see daily death tallies here - but now we have record excess deaths, in the era of post mass experimental gene therapy, it doesn't rate a mention.
Typical age increase of last decade is 7x lower. Meh.
"The increase in deaths in the June 2022 year (9.7 percent) was higher than the average annual increase over the previous decade (1.4 percent).:
https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/births-and-deaths-year-e…
Most likely delays in deaths. The people that would have normally died last year of various flus etc held on and we see a spike this year as fundamentally they were still suseptible.
Overall deaths will increase as the boomer demographic now reach their twilight years.
GBH,if you follow the carrots down some rabbit holes,you would in fact find that you are more qualified to comment on matters of public health than those so called 'experts' in their fields...you just need to do your 'own research'.(sarc)
On a separate note,I donated some of my filthy,contaminated blood to go into the national pool yesterday...and i am happy for it to be used to save lives of all persuasions,vaxed or not.
... luckily I tap keyboards with my left hand , 'cos the blood service drained my right arm a couple weeks back ...
I'm very civic minded ... told them they could give it to an antivaxxer , or even to a Labour Party supporter ... a little of my blue blood might be just the infusion to perk them up ...
No clinical trial was ever performed for the renamed (vaccine) Pfizer gene therapy. We are still in the trial phase. And vaccinations should be studied during this trial where excess all cause deaths are 10 % above normal expected levels. Or is the 'science' settled (as Mr Fauci claimed)? Head checking should only be performed on the experts who think the 'science' is settled.
All I want to know is how much (and to whom) was paid for what must be the most puerile comms campaign in recent memory, particularly the grating radio ad. Some thick-rimmed-glasses-wearing, iPad Pro wielding ad agency exec must have made bank off that.
In all seriousness though, it does seem pretty wild that health advice would be cast aside for the benefit of simplifying the messaging, particularly with regards to increasing uptake in a cohort of the population with lower risk from the virus.
Compare this to countries like Singapore, which encouraged uptake but stressed taking sensible steps e.g. avoiding strenuous exercise for a period of time thereafter (on the contrary, when my wife and I got our first doses at one of the drive-thru centres the nurse was adamant we could go straight out for a run if we wanted to - we were in our running gear - and there was nothing to worry about).
Not a criticism of the vaccine itself (just look at China for comparison's sake) but in the cold light of day - and now the hysteria has largely passed - we should look back at the process and revisit potential mistakes and future improvements for when the next time rolls around. Is there really justification for messaging being more important than medical reality?
That is what was so noticeable that if everyone was following the science, why was it no country had the same procedures?
Either their scientific interpretation was different, and/or it was different political decisions being made under the guise of following the science.
And of course, making basic errors, like saying it was transmitted by surface droplets, rather than by aerosols.
Beer and prawns link..yum
As an aside.... Across Australia, there is a shortage of 173,000 affordable dwellings in the private rental sector available for these households, and 71 per cent pay an unaffordable rent that is greater than 30 per cent of household income.
I call BS on the 30k net migration that our bureaucrats are forecasting.
The MSM reported on about tens of thousands of people unable to make it into NZ during the Covid lockdown.
Many of those Kiwis, international students, migrant workers and their family members will be re-entering NZ. No way we only gain 10-20k first-time students and migrants in the entire year.
NZ Treasury has low-balled population projections for years now, allowing the government to underinvest in capacity and divert the funding to pet projects.
Our high living costs, low wages and subpar living standards compared to other migrant-friendly countries means we can't even get the right skills or talent from worse off countries.
The average worker in Aussie makes nearly 30% more than their NZ counterpart and pays 12.5% less for the same stuff as per one expat website.
Anecdotally, a german friend of mine and his partner recently arrived to travel NZ for a few months and said that the cost of food, meat gas etc is actually relatively cheap compared to Cologne, Germany. He reckoned the cost of beef over there was 1/3 more expensive, they recently had a 5fold increase in energy costs, and anything trucked in from other parts of europe have a hefty price hike resultingly. Interesting to hear from an objective view given all the coverage the media gives cost of living here
"The average worker in Aussie makes nearly 30% more than their NZ counterpart .." and when attempts to improve that situation come along,we get Mr Luxon standing against it.
"...In April Luxon criticised the minimum wage increase from $18.90 to $20, saying it was hurting small businesses and the economy was not strong enough to support it."
I am some what stumped on how Oz does it,my son has moved over there and his gf has a sideline gig in retail,with all the various penal rates for weekends and public holidays etc they still remain profitable,yet NZ is always suppressing wages saying conditions such as increased min wage & penal rates will cause business to fail...yet they seem to manage ok across the ditch. His gf was getting over $100 p/hr working Mon 2nd Jan over there.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/15/there-is-no-us-la…
"Simple. If employers want more workers, they should pay them more.
Jerome Powell and his colleague at the Fed don’t want to hear this. They’re aiming to deal with the “labor shortage” by slowing the economy so much that employers can find all the workers they need without raising wages."
Is this NZ too?
This is worth a look, lots of people, being born in the wrong places to support a property boom in developed worlds, unless we open floodgates to immigration. Note; most of the immigrants would be poor.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/visualizing-the-changing-world-popu…
Latest Mortgage advisor poll from TA
- Buyers remain in the shadows be they first home buyers or investors.
- The strong preference remains for fixing two years.
- Banks are perceived to have tightened their lending rules slightly.
Many brokers noted that buyers are taking time away from the market for the holidays and we won't get a decent feel for how sentiment is shifting until most are back at work and we head towards March which is usually the busiest month for real estate sales each year.
In Canada, the final data for 2022 shows house prices there fell the most on record for any year, down -12%. Their average dwelling price is now C$626,400 (NZ$732,300). Sales volumes there fell -39%
The only chart that matters for the housing market in 2023. Who is the marginal buyer here? Link
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