EV tech is being adopted fast, but not fast enough

Business / news

The shift to electric cars and hybrids is happening fast. But to make a meaningful dent in our passenger car fleet before 2040, the adoption rate will need to pick up significantly from here

2nd Oct 23, 10:25am by David Chaston

The transition away from internal combustion engined cars is gathering steam.

More than 60% of all new passenger cars sold in September were "new energy" type - either full electric, plug-in hybrids, or standard hybrids.

2029 cars were sold as full EVs, 41% of the total NEVs sold in the month. 2945 were hybrids. Together, these raised the rolling twelve month share to almost half (46.7%) of new car sales in the month.

But there is a long way to go. NZTA data shows there are just on 3 mln cars registered. But so far only less than 130,000 NEVs have been included in that overall car fleet, just 4.3%.

New car sales make up about 110,000 per year (and rising), used car imports another 100,000 per year (and falling). Even if all this new+used import activity went 100% to NEVs (and scrappage equalled imports), it would still take 7 years to to convert half our existing car fleet to NEVs. Clearly, those assumptions are not realistic, so it will take a lot longer.

This transition isn't going as fast as the adoption of other new tech. Smartphones got to 40% market share in 30 months. Although most of us are surprised at the speed of this transition, in fact it is going to take a very long time to make a significant dent in the existing fleet. If it takes 16 years, that will take us out to 2040. To get there, the chart above will need to steepen very much faster.

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139 Comments

by Squishy | 2nd Oct 23, 10:34am 1696196040

Essentially our EV program is constrained for like-for-like replacement. We should be subsidising e-bikes, e-scooters, electric quadricycles etc. and not just shiny new Tesla's for the middle class.

by JBA | 2nd Oct 23, 12:02pm 1696201359

In New Zealand, transport planners estimate money spent on high-quality cycling infrastructure yields benefits between ten and 25 times the costs.

100% agree. The cost/benefit ratio is amazing, which is all the more reason to put incentives in place. Huge amounts of money can be saved, mostly due to healthcare cost savings because people get some excercise.

Don't take my word for it: link

by nigelh | 2nd Oct 23, 1:21pm 1696206093

"not just shiny new Tesla's for the middle class." More the well-off class. In my book the middle class are not well off. The middle class don't have spare bucks to buy Teslas.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Oct 23, 5:31pm 1696221071

They do if it’s a ‘company’ expense under a house they own in a ltd company name, then claim some of the tax back in the tax return.

by Speedmax | 2nd Oct 23, 8:27pm 1696231672

Disagree because many still seem to have similar amount of money to spend on flash utes

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 10:39am 1696196360

With more electric vehicle choices than ever, EV sales in the US are hitting new heights. In just the first half of 2023, over 670,000 EVs were sold with over 80 percent of those fully-electric battery electric vehicles (BEVs). It took 8 years for the first million EV sales – but now more than a million have been sold in just the past 12 months.

National will slow the adoption as they bow to their donation base but like the horse has bolted for Ev adoption.

by kwbrn | 2nd Oct 23, 11:04am 1696197886

Plus road user charges.

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Oct 23, 12:40pm 1696203646

The same National who will build an EV charging network?

Which is the big missing link here in NZ for mass adoption.

Or is this some different, imaginary National from the leftie echo chamber?

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 1:08pm 1696205291

I don't know of anyone who was put off buying an EV solely because of a lack of charging infrastructure.

Especially now, with 'affordable' EVs with 300km+ range being available.

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Oct 23, 2:37pm 1696210642

I said it was standing in the way of mass adoption...

Cmon. Surely it is obvious that there is no way we could support an order of magnitude more EVs without charging infrastructure.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 2:45pm 1696211146

The infrastructure is already getting built.

by Antz | 2nd Oct 23, 4:34pm 1696217699

I've seen a survey recently (think it was Stuff, so self-selected) in which EV owners were asked whether they've ever used a public charger - two thirds had NEVER done so.

Most EV users charge at home and never need to use public chargers. I've just clocked up 52,000 kms in two years and have used a public charger once - to make sure I knew how to use it if I ever needed it. I haven't. I routinely do work trips like Bombay to North Shore to Hamilton to Bombay without needing to charge.

by Speedmax | 2nd Oct 23, 8:36pm 1696232192

90+% of charging is done at home overnight. For most people who live in cities and don’t do more than 200 km in a day there is simply no need to use public chargers, so they do not stand in the way of mass adoption. Great not having the inconvenience of having to visit petrol stations too

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 4:15pm 1696216538

Who will build it? ..but at the same time get rid of the "Ute" tax...laughable

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 6:13pm 1696223588

Luxon mentioned doubling electricity generation. We took 120 years to get where we are, and we've dammed the best sites already already.

No doubt we'll build them out of foreign capital. I'm keen to help; I'll shove the re-bar up it....

Nuts. At this stage in human affairs, plain ignorance.

by Inthecentre | 2nd Oct 23, 9:26pm 1696235190

Well, there is lake onslow, but they're gonna ditch that.

by M0ralHazard | 3rd Oct 23, 11:18am 1696285080

The main reason myself and my family and friends haven't purchased an EV is the price premium over an equivalent ICE car, not the charging infrastructure. Something that the clean car discount actually helped with

by Rumpole | 4th Oct 23, 3:56pm 1696388198

National may be right for the wrong reasons - Vehicle cost +$10,000 over ICE vehicle, Range anxiety remains especially with insufficient fast chargers, RUC and the biggy Aviva reportedly increased insurance from $1200 to $5,000 with similar figure fro other users and some insurers who will not insure.

by Crazylekiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 10:53am 1696197209

A bit more context for first registrations:

YTD New/Used = 163,291 vs 175,311 for LYYTD
YTD BEV = 15,864 (9.7%) vs 13,070 (7.5%) for LYYTD

Interestingly the narrative we keep hearing about Tesla being unstoppable in sales and Toyota being a dinosaur and about to fall off a cliff isn't quite playing out in NZ sales figures for New: -

Tesla YTD = 3,636 vs 4,193 for LYYTD
Toyota YTD = 14,480 vs 11,924 for LYYTD

Granted, most of Toyota sales are Hilux and Hybrids, but they both use ICE.

Unless the government puts a line in the sand regarding ICE (Petrol, Diesel, Hybrid, PHEV) sales like Europe has then ICE is here for a long time to come.

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 11:29am 1696199396

Petrol and Diesel prices might also come into play...

by Crazylekiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 11:36am 1696199801

Agree, at some point it becomes too expensive to run. However, most people can only spend $10-$15k on a car. It will take quite a while for used EV’s with suitable range to hit that price point.

I think the other issue is actual EV supply. It’s going to take many years for the legacy manufacturers to get enough capacity to replace ICE production volumes.

Interesting times to be alive.

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 11:54am 1696200872

Agree..and some of the legacy manufacturer's will no longer be with us..

by Sluggy | 2nd Oct 23, 1:01pm 1696204870

It would be interesting to get some data around what people spend on cars. I think 10 to 15k is way above the median spend.

The reality is the have nots will never enter ev land without significant subsidies. Or we magically transition to a usable public transport network.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:32pm 1696206768

The Labour Govt did propose to give poor people $10k to go buy an EV. Another unfunded and undelivered promise.

by Sluggy | 2nd Oct 23, 1:42pm 1696207352

They gave the wealthy 8k instead. Trickle up.

by Citizen Smith | 3rd Oct 23, 8:30am 1696275004

I'm one of those people spent $16'000 on an imported leaf six years ago no rebate at that time. So this leaf was discounted because it had a low battery state of health for the age. I could drive to work and shop then have to charge over night about every three days. Didn't even notice a change in my power bill. Still own the leaf but over the last six years I have saved enough in fuel and no RUC to buy a new BYD. Here's me on a normal wage with a brand new car. Because I'm not burning fossil fuel at $3 a ltr. Unsure how much of that is RUC. How much does NZ spend each year on burning fuel sitting in congestion? Electricity generation at night is cheap it's mostly renewables that's why it's cheap. How much range does a car need, when I bought the leaf it could only go 120kms on a charge. Tbh I'd rather cycle but my commute is too many Kms.

by solardb | 3rd Oct 23, 8:59am 1696276761

POWER TO THE PEOPLE !

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 12:00pm 1696201206

Eh, we are only at the start of the S curve, but the change will happen faster than people realise once we hit the inflection point.

Picked my partner up from the airport, and now you'll find quite a number of Telsas as Taxis/Ubers interspersed between all the Priuses and Hybrid Camrys, and the ocassional BYD and MG EV too. So much so that the free vector charger out at the airport is now being monopolised by the Taxi drivers, apparently getting to the point of verbal abuse of regular EV drivers trying to use the charger. Time for Vector to rip them out and let chargenet replace them with a 150kW paid charger.

by Speedmax | 3rd Oct 23, 12:57am 1696247856

Agree, but no need to rip out 50 kW chargers - leave them there for charging smaller EVs - just add additional fast chargers. 150 kW not fast enough, go for 300 kW to make it worthwhile since many EVs now charg faster than 150.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Oct 23, 10:55am 1696197309

I’ve been using an EV recently, they are fantastic.

However the charging infrastructure is absolutely woeful. Thames, the gateway to the coromandel has the ability to charge 1 car at a time, Auckland you can count them on two hands. We spent an hour trying to find an available charging station.

We should have hundreds of fast charging stations and then maybe more of us would make the transition permanently.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 11:41am 1696200118

A bit behind demand, but its on the way...

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/100-new-public-ev-chargers-be-added…

Hikuai – two 160kW chargers with four ports (1 CHADEMO, 3 CCS) $266,000

Raglan – two 180kW chargers with four ports (1 CHADEMO, 3 CCS) $255,500

Paeroa - two 150kW chargers with 4 ports (1 CHADEMO, 3 CCS) $190,000

Ngatea – four 200kW chargers with 8 ports (1 CHADEMO, 7 CCS) $327,500

ChargeNet NZ will install or upgrade six 75kW DC fast chargers across five sites in Motueka, Tairua, Blenheim, Cromwell and Waihi to support holidaying traffic and regional adoption, with the capacity to charge four EVs at each location.

by rastus1 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:16pm 1696202166

Necessary trips around town can be from charging at home. I don't see it as a priority for payer funds to pay for those who idle around on holiday (few exceptions I'm sure). Eventually yes, but not yet.

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Oct 23, 12:45pm 1696203952

When shall thou permit us plebs to go on holiday Herr Rastus?

by rastus1 | 2nd Oct 23, 2:00pm 1696208417

by all means go, point being that least focus should be on extending holiday benefits.

You know as well as I do that it is the idle retired who are drifting around the country gloating about their minimal running costs. How much more sweat from the peasants backs would you like?

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Oct 23, 2:42pm 1696210938

Got no data on that, but the people I know who have EVs or have had them are not retired.

And I guess someone has to wear the first owner depreciation hit to get them into the peasants hands as second hand vehicles.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 3:40pm 1696214427

You don't "know" this at all, this is simply what you imagine and rage against.

It certainly doesn't match the profile of people I see at EV chargers. There are some well off elderly, but they are out numbered by far by working aged people, I see more sign written EVs, or EVS with the ubiquitous red sticker above the rear door handles and PSV licence in the window than retirement aged people charging their EVs in public.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 2:25pm 1696209934

RTD - classic strawman.

Limits are real, not cognitive/social.

If some think they're more entitled....

by Roger the dodger | 2nd Oct 23, 2:45pm 1696211119

So no holidays then as future growth is limited?

Or is anyone going on holiday entitled by definition?

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 2:46pm 1696211219

Less work as future growth is limited, means more time for non-work activities.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 1:02pm 1696204958

Did 1400kms last week, in an EV, work related. Perhaps i should have just flown and rented an ICE instead?

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:34pm 1696206888

And here's me thinking Tourism was our number one export earner. Yeah, why support it?

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 12:47pm 1696204052

I keep hearing that range isn't an issue for 99% of trips, etc... yet every EV driver grizzles at the lack of chargers.

SUrely they should be able to charge at home?

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 1:15pm 1696205745

The problem for those that did buy a decent EV isn't at home, its when you're out of town. Particularly smaller towns, and regressive councils like New Plymouth that obstruct EV charging installations instead of encouraging.

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 1:19pm 1696205964

Still not seeing why we need public ones. We don't have public fuel stations in prime carparks throughout towns. You go to a private business and fill up there.

As a resident of NP, I don't need any more rates being wasted on frivolous junk that has zero benefit to the people that actually live here. Although on second thoughts, maybe turning the Len Lye centre into a nice EV charging garage would be more useful.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Oct 23, 2:12pm 1696209151

No one is asking it to be free, how on earth did you come to that conclusion? They should be a lot cheaper to instal than a petrol stations and commercially viable.

I’ll stay with ICE until there is the infrastructure available to support EVs. Unless of course Field Marshall Rastus bans holidays and holiday homes

by refactornz | 2nd Oct 23, 2:27pm 1696210054

Noncents, You are the one who started talking about subsidised public chargers. Te Kooti's comment just says that we need more fast charging stations, and I agree. Most of us are happy to pay for EV charging when on longer trips.

For NP-specifically, having only a single decent EV charger in a New World carpark with 120 minute limit is not ideal, especially when they issue parking infringements for overstaying the limit, even if most of that time you were just queuing to use the charger. At least now (since 3 months ago) there are finally some tesla superchargers in NP too.

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 2:33pm 1696210403

My point is they shouldn't be in existing car parks (which in NP are becoming as rare as hens teeth), they should be on private premises (i.e. a business - a la petrol stations.) If there is so much demand, then lease a plot put in some chargers and a cafe, charge like a wounded bull and watch the money roll in.

Further the point of an EV Fast charger is not to park all day and do your business. 120 minutes is more than enough to charge. So charge then go and park and do your business. ICE users don't park up at BP and nick into town for a few hours.

I keep hearing EV owners are smart enough to charge at home on timers and that they are mainly for commuting. But the reality seems most EV owners use them for long distance travel and only charge where either parking/charging is subsidised.

I imagine once charging move to more realitic pricing (I believe mercury are now charging for use) and RUCs kick in we will see a few early adopters chuck them up for sale, as it appears to be a status symbol owning a tesla rather than any particular values based decision.

by refactornz | 2nd Oct 23, 2:58pm 1696211905

My point is they shouldn't be in existing car parks

I agree.

Further the point of an EV Fast charger is not to park all day and do your business. 120 minutes is more than enough to charge.

That's not what happens. For a long time NP had only a single 50kW charger (which is not all that fast). If you're visiting from out of town then that was the only charger you could use. No-one charges for 120 minutes but if you visit during the weekend or especially a holiday weekend then it was common to have 2, 3 or more cars waiting in front of you.

I keep hearing EV owners are smart enough to charge at home on timers and that they are mainly for commuting. But the reality seems most EV owners use them for long distance travel and only charge where either parking/charging is subsidised.

Noncents, Nonsense

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 2:25pm 1696209943

Lol, typical parochial response from a Boomer. Do you really think the original rollout of petrol stations was not subsidised by govt?

And you think NP doesn't have EV owners? Or families that would like to see their EV owning relatives? Really doing yourself proud there nonsense.

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 2:42pm 1696210951

Boomer - me? I am a generation younger. No way I can drop 70k on a new car just to display my eco credentials. I walk.

It seems to be the entitled boomers buying EV's then expecting everyone else to cater to their whims that is the issue. They also seem to be the most vocal about new cycleways for their electric bikes. Their mouths generally exercise more than their legs.

NP has a huge portion of EV owners, I see numerous Leafs, Ioniqs and Teslas. I guess they are incapable of charging at home. Numerous commenters have told me that everyone would use overnight timers, that range is not an issue as most journeys are small, and that it is cheaper to charge at home etc...

Reality is the garage is full of chinese junk, so they are parked on the driveway, then on the 10th trip into town they see the charge drop down and go - oops.

EVs will not fix our problems. They are a temporary status symbol at best (one could say they are virtue signallers - but I don't want to trigger them all)

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 2:49pm 1696211385

Reality is the garage is full of chinese junk, so they are parked on the driveway, then on the 10th trip into town they see the charge drop down and go - oops.

The reality is that 'public' charging is usually (at least) 3x more expensive than charging at home and it is far less convenient.

Very few people would have a garage 'full of chinese junk' and just choose to charge their EV using public chargers instead of at home because they can't be bothered clearing out the garage.

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 4:13pm 1696216428

Not saying they wouldn't choose the cheaper option, but very few cars are garaged in my suburb. You might want to look at the majority of garages in your neighbourhood too.

They don't "clean" out the junk, because it cost them a fortune to buy all those must have toys, gym equipment, and other assorted junk, and yes the vast majority = made in China.

We are a consumerist society. If we actually wanted the cheaper option, we would have stopped buying a whole lot of luxuries a long time ago.

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 4:20pm 1696216842

NP council "Petro for ever" !! Ludites

So the local business' have put in their own chargers

Businessmen trying to make Taranaki a destination for electric vehicle owners. Charging stations are few and far between in Taranaki and I heard a lot of EV owners base their holiday destinations around where charging stations are and so Taranaki is often overlooked.”

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:38pm 1696207119

What about all those people who bought homes with no garages or even car parking?

by Noncents | 2nd Oct 23, 2:12pm 1696209123

they wont get electric vehicles.

There are massive barriers to wider ev take up. ICE took decades to flow through wider society. EVs will likely be the same, although I imagine they will already be rendered irrelevant by that point.

by Sluggy | 2nd Oct 23, 2:35pm 1696210540

I tend to agree. They will be irrelevant before they make any measurable difference.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 3:09pm 1696212587

what will make them irrelevant? Are you expecting some breakthrough in Teleportation, or is this some end of the world doomsday BS?

Personally I can't see people giving up the ability to travel from home to work, or shops, or leisure activities.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 3:43pm 1696214603

Not willingly....

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 5:42pm 1696221738

*yawn* Chicken little at it again.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 6:14pm 1696223677

Strawman alert

by Sluggy | 2nd Oct 23, 5:00pm 1696219209

Wow, nah. I just think lifepo is not the answer. It's not energy dense enough. All the evs people are buying now are destined for the not recycled bin. Current generation is Model T spec.

I live on a yacht, so I rely on batteries, solar and wind.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 5:39pm 1696221597

I just think lifepo is not the answer. It's not energy dense enough.

First hand experience says otherwise (for passenger cars at least). Auckland to Wellington with one charging stop is possible, but I don't have the iron bladder that would be necessary to do that, so a couple more stops for my comfort and to not have to loiter behind slow moving vehicles the whole way are thrown in.

Model T spec were the earlier EVs that preceded the Model T. Both electric motors and their controllers and battery management are far more advanced than the model T ever was. A better analogy would be the first generation of EFI cars, still room to improve but the basic principles are all there.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 6:16pm 1696223800

At least he will be able to float-charge

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 4:22pm 1696216953

The only thing rendered irrelevant will be your commentary here.

by General Comment | 2nd Oct 23, 3:15pm 1696212946

For the 2+ years we had an EV it never made it into the garage, nor onto a public charger. We ran a cord from an external power point, in all weather, at a home we rented, no worries at all. Sure those who can't park within coo-ee of their home won't be able to do this, but I'm constantly bemused by the number of people who think EVs need some kind of complicated infrastructure to be viable.

For round-town trips there are very few reasons an EV can't work, and for the occasional cross-country trek for which the EV won't suit, just hire something for a few days. You'll still likely come out well ahead.

(Not directed at you personally) If one is constantly on long journeys or doing work no EV can manage then just don't buy one, but for crying out loud don't go bad-mouthing them to discourage others as well, because the more people driving EVs the lower demand for oil, and the longer we have before the wheels fall off the world.

by sparrow | 2nd Oct 23, 5:58pm 1696222713

Auckland to Whitianga is only 210 km, there's very few EV's that can't do that on a charge. If people are going to holiday homes they can plug in when they get there. And there's no reason why motels etc can't be offering charging, a chargebox that will do a full charge overnight only costs about 2k to install.

by Brutus Iscariot | 2nd Oct 23, 10:57am 1696197443

A lot of the hybrids being imported are shitty models that make a minimal difference to fuel economy or emissions. E.g. Subaru XV hybrid which makes like a 5-10% difference to fuel usage.I call these Frankensteins.

Battery electric is the key category and is still picking up only relatively slowly.

by The Person | 2nd Oct 23, 12:15pm 1696202128

Hehe... hybrid at 7.6L/100km, how did they make the fuel economy worse than a non hybrid vehicle? My 10 year old Octavia (family wagon - much bigger than XV) does 5.3L/100km without any hybrid tech.

Oh i see:

AC synchronous motor rated 10 kW (14 PS; 13 hp) and 65 N⋅m (48 lb⋅ft)

0.6 kW-hr battery

Using the battery alone, range is estimated at 1 mile

Fuel consumption is improved by approximately 11%, from 28 mpg_‑US (8.4 L/100 km; 34 mpg_‑imp) (combined city/highway) to 31 miles per US gallon (7.6 L/100 km; 37 mpg_‑imp).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subaru_Crosstrek

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 11:06am 1696197995

'The transition away from internal combustion engined cars is gathering steam.'

I like it.

But this article avoids the resources needed, both to 'generate' the electricity, and to build the fleet.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-clean-energy-economy-t…

And then what do they move on?

https://www.nzta.govt.nz/assets/Highways-Information-Portal/Technical-d…

Not going to play out. Bikes, though, capable of negotiating deteriorating surfaces....

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 1:59pm 1696208395

The belief that converting to EVs will make much of an impact in global oil demand is simply a mirage.

Oil fields produce oil with different qualities so barrels of oil from different fields aren't the same, but broadly a barrel of crude has 159 litres in it and this is converted into 170 litres of refined products. Of those, about 73 litres (43%) are gasoline. So if 100% of the world's fleet of light transport was converted to EV then we'd no longer need that gasoline (of course some other use would be found for it).

That doesn't solve the demand for diesel or jet fuel, which make up the next 2 largest categories of refined products, at 23% and 9%.

There are methods to create diesel and heavier fuels from the lighter constituents that would otherwise be used to make gasoline, however they're not particularly efficient but more importantly the infrastructure to do this simply doesn't exist at scale because it's never been needed before. Given that refineries can take a decade to construct and cost billions of dollars, it means the infrastructure we have now is basically the infrastructure we're going to have for the next 10-15 years. Since finance generally sees fossil fuels as a "sunset industry" and are reluctant to invest in new projects in the space, a global shift to EVs may free up a chunk of gasoline capacity, potentially helping keep prices down for the 'average' motorist still using an ICE, but it does nothing to reduce the world's demand of crude oil as a whole because we still need diesel, jet fuel, and all the other chemicals made from crude oil.

https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/In_a_barrel_of_oil

by blobbles | 2nd Oct 23, 11:44am 1696200265

Are you seriously suggesting that nobody is working on replacing fuel in aircraft/heavy industries to batteries or hydrogen? It seems like your argument is "The oil will keep flowing and it will need to go somewhere, so we will keep using that fuel because it keeps coming out of the ground".

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 11:53am 1696200817

Battery EV Commercial aircraft are still miles away, at least until these mythical solid state lightweight massive energy density batteries become something other than a pipe dream. Hydrogen, well, thats also a problem, Probably slightly more technically feasible if you load a plane with liquid H2 just before take off, but the tanks don't integrate well with existing designs so are going to take up what is currently cargo hold/passenger cabin space, or you redesign significantly to accomodate high pressure/low temp tanks.

by rastus1 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:19pm 1696202394

by rastus1 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:19pm 1696202374

Look at the tech you have now. How much of it was a myth when you were a kid? For me radio was the only home tech.

Now anything seem possible, nothing would surprise me.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 3:14pm 1696212846

Fundamental physics not a strong point?

Hydrogen is very energy intensive to manufacture, bloody hard to store and transport, and still has a crap volumetric energy density. Its basically got everything against it that liquid hydrocarbons had going for them.

And solid state batteries, well, they seem to be on the same path as cold fusion, flying cars and all the rest. just another 10 years away (for the last 40 years).

by Sluggy | 2nd Oct 23, 5:03pm 1696219400

I'm not a conspiracy kind of person. But I do wonder how much tech is actively buried by petrochemical co's and vehicle manufacturers.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 12:18pm 1696202299

Hydrogen has its own problems, mainly that it is very difficult to store and transport.

The problem is, once again, the built infrastructure. This article shows how long it would take to replace 1/2 of NZ's car fleet if 100% of new vehicles were EVs - it's going to take too long.

How long is it going to take to replace all of the tractors, trucks etc from diesel to battery / hydrogen fuel cells? Is there a single milk tanker available to buy today that runs on either?

How long did it take Telsa to deliver their battery-powered semi-truck, and how many have they sold so far?

What we need is a way to cheaply produce a diesel alternative. Doesn't yet exist.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 12:27pm 1696202824

And it never will, it might if you drop the word cheaply, but even that is looking doubtful on the sort of scale you are wanting.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 1:08pm 1696205338

Yes, I realise both those things. Most people have no clue though.

by Inthecentre | 2nd Oct 23, 9:58pm 1696237083

It looks like some are heading there already.

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/hw-richardson-takes-uncommer…

by blobbles | 3rd Oct 23, 9:04am 1696277057

This is impossible according to all the above commentators. Its not happening, even though it is. Don't look up.

by Palmtree08 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:43pm 1696203803

Perhaps we could just degrow? Outlawing the advertising industry would trash demand in very short order.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 1:10pm 1696205455

Degrowth means an economic great depression.

The only question is whether we want to plan degrowth, or just let it happen to us. So far every sign is pointing to the latter.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:42pm 1696207356

What if it goes the other way? And airplanes are replaced by sub orbital rocket flight? 2 hours, Sydney to London. Can go for lunch. How much fossil fuel does a rocket burn?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexledsom/2023/05/16/2-hour-london-to-syd…

by the Joneses | 2nd Oct 23, 4:23pm 1696216987

The reasons why the Concorde stopped flying was noise, cost and safety.

I know, lets try rockets!

by kiwikidsnz | 2nd Oct 23, 2:32pm 1696210373

Nuclear powered merchant shipping could be an interesting option

by Final Account | 3rd Oct 23, 1:50pm 1696294228

How about wind powered??

by blobbles | 2nd Oct 23, 11:40am 1696200018

Which is why Sodium batteries should and probably will change everything. Only drawback is less energy dense, but if we have a good charging network, that point becomes moot. Safer, cheaper, more abundant, better thermal performance, can be charged at a similar rate, better environmental credentials at source and disposal. Check out the iEVA50 sodium, already in production. More models coming out over the next few years. When consumers get a new compact electric car for maybe $25k NZD that goes 200-250km, I think many of them will jump at it.

The analysis on your first link assumes we will be making batteries with the same materials out to 2040, I think most of the fleet will be replaced with Sodium batteries, only high end vehicles (performance, extra range etc) will go lithium.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 12:06pm 1696201592

Just be aware that 250km range is no doubt the chinese range number, meaning at an average speed of 30kph you might get that figure, you really need to half to get a real world range. look at the kWh, basically the same size capacity battery as the oldest Leafs, so really about 120-160km range on the open road, barely enough for Auckland to Hamilton if you take it easy.

by blobbles | 2nd Oct 23, 4:43pm 1696218192

I don't know what people are thinking with this sort of argument. Only 1% of people are driving >100km each day. Yet people focus on this irrationally "A CaR MuSt DrIVe 400KM fOr iT To bE usEfUL!". Its a stupid argument, particularly where we see 60% of households with more than one car. We can replace most of our driving, hence our emissions with electric cars, but the conservatives come out and say "BuT I CaN'T Tow mY BoaT oNcE a YEar SO Its uSeleSs!". Stupid argument.

by Nzdan | 2nd Oct 23, 5:00pm 1696219251

The only time we drive over 20 km range, aside from Christmas to the South Island to see family, is when the wife decides she needs to drive to Wellington/Palmerston North for Kmart.

Re: Christmas. If there are adequate charging stations along the way, we don't mind stopping for a couple of hours. Might even schedule an overnight stay somewhere along the way to rejuice.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:03pm 1696223007

No, its not a stupid argument if you have to do more than 100kms more than a couple times in a year. If you NEVER have to do >100kms, sure its a great little shitbox for getting around in your town. But its also not going to last long if you are doing almost a full battery charge cycle every day, and the smaller the battery the slower you can charge it, so it doesn't matter how good the infrastructure is if your toy car takes an hour to get 80kms of range because the battery is small and poked (ask the owner of a tired leaf how long it takes them to recharge on a fast charger) . Then factor in your average soccer moms need for a big safe SUV for her precious offspring to travel in, and you are really pissing into the wind if you think people will buy them.

And before you trot out the rent a car nonsense, have a look at the price of rental cars in high demand periods, like every long weekend and school holiday period. Rent a car for a week to drive up to the rented bach, park it up on the lawn for 5 days at @$300/day then drive it home?

You're better off buying a vehicle that meets 99% of your transport needs and renting a truck when you actually need a truck.

by blobbles | 2nd Oct 23, 6:23pm 1696224209

Thanks for illustrating the conservative ICE focussed or mega battery range EV viewpoint so well.

Every leaf owner I know is exceedingly happy with their purchase and charge them in their garages overnight. Battery charging isn't anywhere near as big of a deal as you make it out to be, but keep moving the goal posts, eventually you will get one through, even if it might be an own goal. Almost every one I know who has a leaf also has another car - ICE. But they use their leaf for 90% of their trips, simply because its so much cheaper to run.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:40pm 1696225220

A leaf is fine as a second car, but nobody I know would live with one as a main car, we like to go places. Not everybody lives behind a computer screen 24/7.

As for battery charging not being that much of a problem, tell this deegedeege guy that he's imagining it, apparently his leaf is a bit more shit than your is yet...

https://www.reddit.com/r/nzev/comments/16pw6id/charging_experience_suck…?

Long distance travel is useless whether it's free chargers or paid for ones. Some only allow 30 minutes charging and others are waiting in line and 30 minutes isn't enough to get you to the next station. Also it's too time consuming and takes too long to get to where you're going, especially if time is a factor, on a day trip, etc.

30 mins charging won't get him to the next EV charger in Auckland. Screw that for a joke. Undersize and overwork a component and it fails prematurely.

by blobbles | 3rd Oct 23, 8:59am 1696276759

You don't even know what your argument anymore is.

Like I said, almost all of our trips are less than 100km and the majority of households have 2 cars. So replace one with an electric, use it for 90% of your trips which are short and you dramatically reduce your consumption of fuel. When most of the country has done that, we will be using dramatically less fuel which is good from all angles.

Random guy posting how his leaf is old on the internet and how little charging capacity he has doesn't "defeat" the argument of short range of electric cars for those that can charge at home and travel short distances. Which is almost all trips. You really like to go out on a tenuous branch and find a example to support an odd position and then argue until you are blue in the face for no reason. If leafs were as bad as you are making them out to be, you wouldn't see any on the road. I see a hell of a lot of them in Wellington.

by Pragmatist | 3rd Oct 23, 9:18am 1696277908

No, you have assumed what my arguement is, rather than reading what I wrote you complete twat.

I was pointing out that your shitbox tiny battery EV will have a short life, will not be suitable at all as a main car for most people. Yes, fine as secondary car that never leaves the city so long as you have a decent first car in the house (for some, some people like to do things seperately, so need two decent cars)

by blobbles | 3rd Oct 23, 10:03am 1696280593

It is you who have failed to read. Did I not mention 2 car households? Oh that's right, I did. You are arguing for the sake of argument, because clearly you are just spoiling for a fight. I suppose since you have written 1/6th of the comments on a page with over 120 comments, you can't help yourself and you must consider yourself an authority on all that is EV so must defeat anyone who suggests anything slightly different from your thinking. Hell even if someone is using the same argument as you, you will dress it up as something different so that you can defeat that strawman good an proper. Well done. Then resort to ad-hominem attacks to support your authority! Laughably unintelligent.

by sparrow | 2nd Oct 23, 6:02pm 1696222923

I have a Chinese EV (MG) with an advertised range of 320K. I get 300 per charge from a mix of open road and around town driving. It would be less on the expressway but more driving entirely at 50k around town. I haven't tried eco mode but expect that might increase the range slightly.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:10pm 1696223426

Yeah, not the same thing. Your was advertised in NZ with the WLTP range which is what all EVs quote in NZ. In China the same car would be advertised with 400km of range under the Chinese rating system.

by dumbthoughts | 2nd Oct 23, 11:21am 1696198876

I'd like to replace the family wagon (~10 y/o Subaru Outback) with an EV but just can't make the numbers work no matter how much I do the "man maths".

When it eventually dies I'll certainly buy an EV, but very hard to justify chopping in a perfectly functional vehicle for one based on our current usage.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 11:38am 1696199911

Consider: the value of your ICE vehicle may drop precipitously if petrol were to cost, say, $5-6 per litre. The value of the EV would also comparatively rise very highly in such an environment.

It may not make economic sense 'now', but in an environment such as above it may be a no-brainer. The only question is, when will this situation arise? I'm odds-on for sometime in the next 5 years.

Selling your petrol vehicle now while you can still get $$$ for it and investing that in an EV may make sense.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 12:04pm 1696201442

That's a Commons issue.

Someone is going to lose....

Worse than that - in a reducing-energy scenario the whole $$$$ system may fold. Making it hard to account thus...

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 12:20pm 1696202427

Yip, which is why it makes sense to invest the $$$ you currently have into things that will add resiliency to your life: EVs, solar panels, batteries, rain water tanks etc.

Everything to make you less reliant on the current economic system.

by Chaosinflesh | 2nd Oct 23, 12:17pm 1696202230

That was the same argument we followed when we decided to purchase a new car a few years ago - saved 10k on purchase costs vs the hybrid version.

What we didn't consider - change in mileage (went from ~12k to 50k /year) - as well as petrol prices increased drastically. But the phevs devalued much faster vs kms done, as well.

Now we're back on low mileage, would've bought an PH/EV - but again, price over the expected future use of the vehicle has kept us in an ICE. Even at higher petrol costs.

by JBA | 2nd Oct 23, 11:08pm 1696241318

Was in a similar boat, ended up getting a hybrid. Good halfway point at 10-14k to spend for a Toyota fielder. Factoring in all the costs it's going to pay for itself in savings in 3-4 years as opposed to keeping what we had (20yo beater car).

by solardb | 2nd Oct 23, 11:26am 1696199207

The transformation really needs to come in attractive , usable public transport.

And making town centres pedestrian , cycling and public transport friendly.

But new developments still have carparking right outside the door , whilst public transport is relegated to a stop hundreds of metres away .

by The_Golem | 2nd Oct 23, 11:49am 1696200541

What might help here is to do something about our abysmal rate of charger network building. The desire to go to an EV fleet here is looking like magical thinking: lots of talk but little implementation.

This is the latest data I could find (2020): we sit at 0.02 charging stations per EV, where the target I've seen is 0.14 (7 times as many) for places like the US (0.06) and Australia (0.07), which stand comparison as we share low density cites with reasonable distances between them - comparisons with models evolved in countries with well-developed public transport and much higher population density are misleading.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 3:49pm 1696214980

As a Tesla owner I don't really have that as much of an issue. Recently they have opened Glenfield Mall (7 x 250kW ports), Paraparaumu (3 x 250kW port), Bulls (6 x 250kW ports, just opened this weekend), Rotorua (6 x 250kW ports). EDIT: Forgot to include New Plymouth (3 x 250kW). And all of those except Paraparaumu are open to other brands of EVs as of last week. But non-Tesla will pay a pretty premium to charge there, 99c/kwH or thereabouts, unless you pay an $11/month subscription which brings it down to the same price Teslas drivers pay.

Also https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/100-new-public-ev-chargers-be-added…, Thats going to make a significant improvement to things once that lot get built, which could take a year or two for some of them.

by The_Golem | 2nd Oct 23, 12:04pm 1696201441

I live in Dunedin, and distances to be covered can be substantial down here - if I have to be in Wanaka I'll drive 650kM in a day and be nowhere near a charger, and the 1-day drive to the ferry is around 750kM. I looked at battery vehicles and drove a few, including a Tesla, but apart from the range issue they aren't well-suited to use down here: inadequate ground clearance and there seems to be a reluctance to suspend them and give them tyres suitable for our deteriorating roads. And 100 new chargers is less than a drop in the bucket: we'll need thousands and a network capable of handling very high peak loads....

My next vehicle will likely be a PHEV, but most of them are pretty lumpen, dreary affairs. Kind of praying for a hydrogen fuel cell car that's actually good to drive! Maybe...https://www.autonews.com/china/great-wall-roll-out-its-first-hydrogen-f…

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 12:23pm 1696202580

Dunedin to Wanaka doesn't require a charging stop in a Telsa, and is only 275kms?

We won't need thousands of chargers until EV sales increase (which they will), and it quite likely we will never have a faster charging network that is going to cope with holiday weekends like petrol stations can, the costs of overbuilding the EV charging network to cope with Long weekend/xmas peaks etc just isn't going to work, it would take an absolute fortune to not have queueing and long waits on those half dozen days a year.

If you're complaining about the state of the EV charger network, you might want to look at the multitude of Hydrogen Stations.. oh, wait, there are basically none accessible to the public, and they cost more to build, and then you also need the hydrogen generation infrastructure too. Hydrogen is seriously daft for private motor vehicles, its not going to work.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:47pm 1696207668

The global Govts know this, and its part of the design. A feature not a bug. The idea of leaving your 15 minute city to go somewhere on holiday during a long weekend will soon be a quaint idea that old people in the past did. Like driving drunk and with no seatbelts.

by Von Metternich | 2nd Oct 23, 11:57am 1696201075

Electric cars are very expensive. Call me when they are <20k for a car.

by Larry76 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:02pm 1696201360

When has any new car been <$20k? Never.

There are good used EV options (not Leafs) in the $30k bracket, courtesy of buyers 4-5 years ago.

by JohnfromtheTron | 2nd Oct 23, 12:25pm 1696202742

Brought a brand new Kia Picanto 4 years ago for $19990, very cheap to run around town and have done some long trips in it.

Wouldn't by a 5 year old electric car without allowing $10,000 plus for a new battery around the 10 to 12 years mark.

And that's a conservative estimate.

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 12:34pm 1696203273

LiFePo batteries will basically outlast the car itself.

My Atto 3 has 420km of range. After 10 years it might be down to 350km and after 20 it might be down to 300km. Still very usable at that point.

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:29pm 1696224555

The big problem is by the time the range is down to 300km, the fast charge time will have increased 50%. Hopefully by then you are retired and can be one of those people that rastus was whinging about.

by nigelh | 2nd Oct 23, 1:45pm 1696207544

$20k for quite a few commentators on this website is chump change. Buying a Tesla EV is also a status symbol and gives a good environmental feel good factor.

"Wouldn't by a 5 year old electric car without allowing $10,000 plus for a new battery around the 10 to 12 years mark." Yes and it makes the EV almost a throw away at the end of its battery life. A new battery cost would probably be more than the vehicle shell.

A small PHEV is probably a good bet for town driving. If you need a car for the odd long distance, 3-4 times a year one can always rent. Needs some financial calcs. I would not buy any form of variation of an EV unless the economics stacked up. Nothing to do with saving the planet and some feel good factor.

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 4:23pm 1696217010

Whats your number?

by The Person | 2nd Oct 23, 12:05pm 1696201529

A good smartphone costs $300. EVs start around $60000. Its hardly surprising then that smartphones were adopted at a quicker pace.

by Zwifter | 2nd Oct 23, 1:08pm 1696205283

That and people replace their phones every year. Just bought a new ICE car, I can make it last 20 years.

by TronMVP | 2nd Oct 23, 4:00pm 1696215611

Are you ready to reveal which model you purchased?

by Baywatch | 2nd Oct 23, 5:31pm 1696221080

Zwifter what does NZ have an abundance of, renewable energy or oil? Looks like you made a very dumb purchasing's decision.

by Larry76 | 2nd Oct 23, 12:06pm 1696201599

Well this is going to be even slower now with Luxon’s “gone by Christmas” blather over the weekend. The CCS & CCD was sensible policy that had barely been in place for a year.

Consistency would now dictate a removal of the FBT exemption on utes, which is daft considering a d/cab Ranger is clearly a passenger vehicle.

Good governance now seems impossible in this country.

by solardb | 2nd Oct 23, 12:33pm 1696203183

Yeah , all those tradie utes without a scratch on the tray liner. Maybe the IRD should pay as visit to the Waikawau Bay boat ramp on a Saturday morning . If they can find room to park.

by K.W. | 2nd Oct 23, 1:30pm 1696206622

Hello, we are in a cost of living crisis. Who can afford to sell their perfectly good ICE vehicle to buy a brand new EV? Especially since you can't just whack it on the mortgage any more either. The changeover will happen at the same pace as vehicles normally get upgraded. Why would you expect it to be any faster? All the subsidy did was pull forward the normal demand for new vehicles, which then reduces the ongoing demand.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 2:32pm 1696210371

Flawed argument - the cost of living crisis is really an energy-depletion crisis.

With ramifications or all things....

by Lanthanide | 2nd Oct 23, 2:55pm 1696211721

Which is really a societal inertia problem.

We have created a society with infrastructure built up over decades that is wholly dependent on fossil fuels. We also have built up a large population who have expectations around quality of life that is wholly dependent on fossil fuels. Ditto for producing all the food and distributing it to all the mouths to feed.

If we could replace all of our infrastructure in a few years, or change all of the expectations that people have of quality of life, then there might be a way out of this mess. The food thing is harder to solve of course, but there's still enough slack/energy in the system to divert resources towards that purpose and away from frivolous ones.

by powerdownkiwi | 2nd Oct 23, 3:45pm 1696214748

Great post.

by interesting1234 | 2nd Oct 23, 5:51pm 1696222266

Also if we can teach people to me more self reliant, grow veggies, make things themselves, and as you previously said, rely less on the current economic system.

by False economies | 2nd Oct 23, 4:17pm 1696216625

EV insurance woes in UK... is NZ different?

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/sep/30/the-quotes-were-5000-or-more-electric-vehicle-owners-face-soaring-insurance-costs

by Pragmatist | 2nd Oct 23, 6:16pm 1696223801

Car insurance generally went up heaps this year. Mine jumped 20%, but thats just the norm for any car this year.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132317530/insurer-iag-tells-investors-…

by False economies | 2nd Oct 23, 6:38pm 1696225117

But in uk some insurers have stopped insuring Teslas altogether

by nigelh | 2nd Oct 23, 6:46pm 1696225612

I'm sure that'll trickle down to other EVs as well. If the UK being about 13 times the population of NZ having difficulty in repairing EVs then NZ has close to zero chance

by sardines | 2nd Oct 23, 9:56pm 1696236973

This is more of a Tesla problem than an EV one. It seems almost impossible to get spare parts from them. As the big manufacturers take over EV market share the problem should fix itself.

by Pagz | 2nd Oct 23, 5:07pm 1696219646

EV - the great transition to far less travel.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1E8SQde5rk

by Uh Oh | 3rd Oct 23, 11:25am 1696285551

All the EV transition will do is put more pressure on the electrical grid - because all of that energy needs to come from somewhere...

To make this truly sustainable without requiring a major infrastructure hydro dams then decentralised home power systems need to be adopted and incentivised as well - solar/ wind... to offset industry when people are at workplaces, and the grid to support EV charging overnight when industrial and home demand is low 9pm - 7am. i.e. smooth out the peak

Or possibly tap into EV batteries to balance the grid during peak? V2H solutions etc as there is a lot of power stored in EV's usually enough to power a home for a few days

by solardb | 3rd Oct 23, 1:16pm 1696292206

Probably not feed the grid (control / safety requirements make it unecessarrily expensive) , but feasible to power the home or critical loads in a power cut.

For all the fancy control gear out there, a simple manual changeover switch (on - off- on ) does the job . couple of hundred bucks vs thousands . Needs someone to flick the switch though . likewise a simple contactor , can be controlled easily. doesn't do all thew fancy syncing/ sensing , but it doesn't need too.

by solardb | 3rd Oct 23, 1:19pm 1696292384

a new class of electric vehicle registration , akin too NZ post 's little delivery golf carts , could take care of most local needs. Design local roads around them and walking / cycling . Normal cars etc have to park and enter. some gated communities have ideas along this line . Would make for a very pleasant town centre. Instead we have full size trucks /cars etc , able to roar through most town centres.

by The_Golem | 3rd Oct 23, 1:20pm 1696292421

I wonder if the news that Japan has stopped second hand car sales to Russia is going to do anything to reduce the price of used EVs and ICE vehicles coming here.