Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news global financial markets are still assuming the Gaza-Israel flare-up won't affect them.
On Wall Street analysts are betting the American economy is actually operating better than they had been assuming. And tech stocks are rising ahead of earnings reports that are assumed to be strong. Consumer stocks are rising as well. The S&P500 is higher as are bond yields as eyes turn to how the US Fed will assess this continuing strength. The wisdom of ignoring global pressures is not front-of-mind there at present. A higher risk appetite seems an odd reaction in the circumstances.
In New York State however, business activity edged lower in their factories. This was the seventh monthly fall in the past year, one that has essentially oscillated around a steady state. This time new orders were a little soft, but employment held up. That was probably because looking ahead, firms remained relatively optimistic about the six-month outlook
In Canada, wholesale sales rose +2.3% in August, led by machinery and equipment. This was a good bounce-back from the no-change in July, although not as much as was anticipated. But the waterfront strike in Vancouver in that month probably affected this result.
And staying in Canada, higher interest rates are souring the mood of both consumers and businesses. A quarterly survey for their central bank shows a steepening mood retreat.
In India, wholesale prices unexpectedly dropped in September, extending the period of wholesale price deflation to a full six months now. Given the have CPI increases of about 5%, you might expect that to ease soon from the wholesale price weakness.
A weak monsoon has affected large parts of the rural economy, and badly. One indication is that sales of entry-level cars slumped -75% to just 35,000 units in the three months through September from a year earlier. Sales of motorcycles and scooters, the favoured modes of transport in villages also fell -39% and -25% respectively. These are huge reactions as farmers face the future with building fears.
In China, their central bank injected ¥783 bln (NZ$183 bln) into their banking system yesterday via their medium-term lending facility, but at an unchanged 2.50% rate. This remains the lowest rate on record for a 1-yr MLF. It has fallen steadily from 3.30% in 2019. This latest injection is a third more than the September ¥591 bln and this the most they have ever injected.
The tough conditions give opportunities for short sellers. Now regulators are moving to try and quash short selling in China.
In Europe, yesterday we noted the Polish election. The results are not official yet, but exit polling suggests that the EU-centric opposition parties may have won over the ruling Catholic-conservative nationalist party. If confirmed, it could return Donald Tusk to power. Poland may not be going the Hungary/Slovakia way and this is likely to be an important shift in the EU.
Staying in Europe, end of year retail prospects look tough in the UK. There, almost one in three adults expect to spend less on Christmas this year, with most blaming the rising cost of living.
The UST 10yr yield starts today up +9 bps from where we started yesterday at 4.72%. Their key 2-10 yield curve is less inverted at -37 bps. Their 1-5 curve is also less inverted at -70 bps. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is sharply less inverted at -71 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.52% and up +8 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate remains at 2.71%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is -3 bps lower at 5.48%.
Wall Street has started its week off in an unusually good mood, up more than +1.0% in its Monday trade. Overnight European markets started their week positive but less so, all up about +0.3%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Monday session down -2.0% however. Hong Kong fell -1.0%, and Shanghai fell -0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Monday trade down -0.4% and the NZX50 fell -0.7%.
The price of gold will start today at US$1922/oz and down -US$11/oz from this time yesterday.
Oil prices have slipped a bit more than -50 USc to be now at just under US$86/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.2 USc and recovering +40 bps from yesterday's open. Against the Aussie we are slightly softer again at 93.4 AUc. Against the euro we have risen slightly to 56.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 69.5 which is up +25 bps from yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$28,120 which is up +4.4% from this time yesterday. However, volatility over the past 24 hours has again been extreme at +/-5.7% as this crypto briefly flirted with US$30,000 earlier. In the UK, Binance has suspended access to its crypto exchange for new users based in the UK, in response to local regulator actions.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
63 Comments
No tax cuts, no change to Super age...at least law and order will be restored?
You can't run a regime of the rich getting richer and the poor getting the picture, under a sinking lid, without more 'crime'.
It just goes with the territory; the less options you give folk, the less they have to lose. Just logic. Hence ram-raids, hence Hamas.
So few folk think clearly...
Totally correct.
But Luxon's winning speech suggested that he at least understands he represents even those who did not vote for National, so we can hope that he can come up with a plan to deliver for everyone.
For that to succeed business will need to succeed. But it won't if he allows business to continue to drive people to poverty, and landlords fleece people who need a roof over their heads.
Logically, then, we need to redefine 'succeed'.
Because it is 'business succeeding' that has trended to this disparity.
A System will always do what a System is set up to do - unless a feed-back loop changes (including reversing). The System is set up to favour the rich (it's a positive feed-back loop; 'rich' includes lawyers. lobbyists and politicians in the main; they call what they do 'succeeding') and this lot are NOT going to change that System.
I suggest: Success is defined as creating a world we can hand on to our grandchildren, with easy consciences.
Piles of digital proxy, lists of depleted resources, over-full sinks, un-parry-able entropy, over-competition spatially; these do not qualify - yet they are the direct results of the current System.
Consumer demand drives business production leading to business success and consumer satisfaction. Not really that simple is it. Reminds me of the little mouse running on his or her little wheel in a little cage. The mouse runs, spins the wheel, gets fitter needs to energise, eats food, rests then starts on it again. The question being the energy from the wheel would not go anywhere near enough to provide the resources to either manufacture or spin it. Someone needs to invent a perpetual motion machine don’t they.
We already have one of the highest rates of incarceration in the OECD. We should be looking at how other countries end up with far lower prison populations and implement their policies, not try to emulate the USA which has the most crime and many multiples more than anyone else in jail - 700 per 100,000, compared to the OECD average of less than 150.
Agreed sparrow. But what needs to happen is for the crime to stop. Bottom line.
Prison? Pretty hopeless. But at least it stops crime outside the fence.
Then there are those talking wraparound etc. They would not know wraparound if it slapped them on the face. We get a lot of word salad from these social services.
If some 12 year old kid rams a shop in a stolen car it needs to the last time.
So. At home. Goes to school every day. Is fed. Gets to bed early. Parents know where they are every minute. Drug free household. Total money management of the household. Etc
Somebody on the doorstep to help - lots - and to enforce.
The family fails that. Prison until the family can function.
While I don't like a lot of NACT's policies, I was at least looking forward to the Super age better reflecting longer life expectancies.
Now do we end up with the worst of all worlds, big boosts for property investment, higher house prices, higher inflation, continued universal Super for all (no doubt protected from inflation), and screw the kids?
No one should be surprised. We know what NACT’s vested interests are, and importantly who their donors are.
Both the Labour and National playbooks are deeply entrenched.
And House, we also know that the only reason Labour managed to compete in the 2017 election was donations from Sir Bob Jones and Greg Loveridge. Without those, they wouldn’t have been able to pay their bills. So, Labour is therefore beholden to the vested interests of Sir Bob?
That ain't happening if Winston gets a sniff
How exactly are National going to restore Law and Order again?
Gay footwear.
:)
aka boot camps
I've told my Red Bands to pack their bags.
Oops; National beat me to it...
the herald will stop putting it on the front page
A housing good news story! Simplicity’s new build to rent complex in Mt Wellington beginning construction:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/simplicity-living-225m-297-unit-mt-…
Wall Street is blind to the risk until suddenly one day its not. The exit is can prove frighteningly small.
Absolutely disgusting scenes coming out of Gaza. Israel trying to justify systematic and mass murder of civilians by a weak call of "self defense" - openly supported by our "allies". Essentially Israel has created a slow death chamber by surrounding and slowly crushing Palestine, taking their lands and forcing them to live under their thumb. End game here is obvious, Israel wants to kill all Palestinians (IDF calling all Palestinians animals), remove Palestine and its people from the face of the earth. All they are doing though is creating even more fighters for Hamas in the future who appear to be stronger than ever. Until a 2 state solution is found and backed by the international community AND the US who thinks itself apart from the international community AND backed by force if required, its only going to get worse for Israel.
You would have thought they would have learned, given their history, that attempting to wipe out an entire group of people because you don't agree with their religion etc would result in even more militant actions from that group to defend themselves in the future. As we see playing out right now, Jewish militants visiting near genocide on another people.
Unless they change their ways it's the beginning of the end for Israel.
And for the US - which is closely resembling a failed state. They have been culturally in bed at the top end, forever.
Powerful (funded) propaganda too; Leon Uris' Exodus being the classic.
Unfortunately, we are increasingly hamstrung by being unable to discuss religious/cultural alignment without censorship - just when frank discussion is needed most (maybe that is always the way?). Blinken, Kagan, Nuland, Wolfowitz, Kissinger.... the linkage is long and obvious. The problem isn't the personalities; it's the repercussion on us that we need to be able to discuss unrestrictedly.
trategic-culture.su/news/2023/10/14/slouching-towards-the-final-solution/
(wait for someone to 'shoot the messenger', by site or by persona...)
No its not you guys don't get it. Gaza needs to be smashed. Just love how the Arabs around the world yell in protest but Egypt shut the boarder crossing because nobody wants them. I don't see a "Dunkirk" moment on the beaches with ships arriving to take a single one of them away. They are a bunch of trouble makers.
Not because nobody wants them.
Because Egypt itself is overpopulated.
We need to keep cause/causal accurate
:)
What drivel powder. Egypt doesn’t want them because they don’t want Hamas. Same with Jordan. They don’t want to be another Lebanon.
What Hamas did was disgusting and the anger in Israel is understandable, but killing the entire population of Gaza is definitively a step too far. The median age there is 18, most of the population consists of children. It’s angry young people stuck in an awful situation, they literally have nowhere to go, condemning them all to die is hardly a moral choice.
Hamas needs to be smashed.. I don't believe in 'eye for an eye' either, it's about eliminating the threat.
eliminating the threat? So you are OK with Hamas targeting Israel to eliminate the threat to Palestine?
Some people start from incredibly skewed baselines
Western - our - propaganda has been remarkably effective. On us.
who gave rise to the takeover by Hamas in Gaza? who fomented the conditions? it wasn't the bloody tooth fairy - a jewish homeland doesn't include the locals, so how to get rid? send them into the arms of extremism
Levictus 24.19.21 - “an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth.” Ancient words. Modern application. Some things change and stay the same.
It all starts with Religion...
Nope religion pure and simple..but you probably think you are more evolved than other human beings.
Nope it starts with humans abusing their power and authority. It starts with a separatist view of the other and failing to view the other as yourself.
Jesus, in what we call the Sermon on the Mount, told the gathered crowd, “You have heard that it was said, 'Eye for eye, and tooth for tooth. ' But I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also” (Matthew 5:38-39).
Then Peter came to Jesus and asked, "Lord, how many times shall I forgive my brother when he sins against me? Up to seven times?" 22Jesus answered, "I tell you, not seven times, but seventy-seven times. (Matthew 18:21-35)
"Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" is a biblical concept spoken by Jesus in Luke 6:31 and Matthew 7:12; it is commonly referred to as the "Golden Rule." "So in everything, do to others what you would have them do to you, for this sums up the Law and the Prophets" (Matthew 7:12)
Great - these versus came to my mind when reading the thread above.
The only way to resolve conflict peacefully is to walk the higher path - alternatively you need a Machiavellian view and complete irradiate those you disagree with but go to hell yourself in the process for becoming the same as the people who angered you.
Nowadays the first strike is unlikely to be simply a slap. Very difficult to turn the other cheek if the first one has been shot. Reality of the modern world & society regret to say.
The need for Orwells rough men standing ready to do violence on our behalf is another regrettable reality.
Have to agree, but we are also seeing that those countries that supported them at the start, after the Hamas attack, are seeing the above as well and are starting to call them out. Iran has already issued a threat and if Israel don't stop the aggressive behaviour towards innocent civilians, this could escalate very quickly through the middle east.
Absolutely disgusting scenes coming out of Israel. Hamas trying to justify systematic and mass murder of civilians by a weak call of "self defense" - openly supported by their "sponsors". End game here is obvious, Hamas wants to kill all Israelis (its charter calls for the destruction of Israel and genocide of all Jews), remove Israel and its people from the face of the earth. All they are doing though is creating even more fighters for Israel in the future who appear to be stronger than ever. A 2 state solution will never be found, because one side's stated goal is the complete obliteration of the other side. Remember, a 2 state solution was the original plan in the 40s, when the entire region decided to attack Israel the day it was established.
You would have thought they would have learned, given their history, that attempting to wipe out an entire group of people because you don't agree with their religion etc would result in even more military actions from that group to defend themselves in the future. As we see playing out right now.
Hamas wouldn't have existed if Israel hadn't practiced Apartheid.
That is the overall effect; there are individuals within Israel, of course, who are not in agreement (just as a French cafe-owner gave my old man a free coffee, a few days after the Rainbow Warrior was bombed, apologising as he did so...
"Everyone on twitter not only understands 2000 years of history but can also can solve the issue in their tweet"
"Everyone on twitter not only understands 2000 years of history but can also can solve the issue in their tweet"
Rainbow Warrior. Your story is crap powder, as it wasn’t established “a few days after” that it was the French that did it.
This is a situation created by the Brits when they advocated for an independent Jewish state in Palestine, ignoring the rights and needs of the people already there, and were backed by the League of Nations following WW2.
But the tribes of the ME have been at war for more than 2000 years over land. I don't believe it will be the end of Israel, but the challenge will be stopping it from becoming bigger than it already is. Yes Israel will wipe Hamas out of Gaza and the 'co-lateral' damage will be huge. That is what I referred to last week when I asked what Hamas was thinking. Israel has never been known for restraint when it comes to it's defence. That comes from being surrounded by enemies who have at one time or another vowed to wipe Israel of the face of the earth.
Hamas has a bigger plan. They're using their own people as shields. Are they trying to start the Islamic Christian war that is prophesised in Islam? In that prophesy, Islam wins.
You guys (te kooti below too) are very confident that Israel can eradicate hamas.
That's going to be a very tough task. Urban warfare and street to street fighting is not easy to say the least and not historically Israel's forté. And it will mean many civilian casulaties which is perfect recruiting conditions for future hamas soldiers...
If Israel is to truly wipe out hamas it will have to bomb gaza to rubble which will bring the west bank and hezbollah (and more?) in to play.
This has the potential to be very ugly
Seek and destroy mission. Hamas has gone underground. Myriad of tunnels. Israel will locate said tunnels and blow them up and fill in with water, gas, you name it. Urban racial warfare is cruel & gruesome, the people bear the brunt of it.
Its not a hard ask when Israel controls all your power and water and fuel. Cut those off and everyone will die in a matter of weeks. Funny how the Palestinians can afford automatic weapons and just leave $80 empty magazines all over the place when they cannot even sort their own water out. The clear intent is to pull other countries into the conflict, not going to happen the USA will step in, they cannot wait to smash Iran.
Do you understand what you are saying? Let's skip over war crimes here, your advocating a free pass for a supposedly respectable nation to commit collective punishment, crimes against humanity and finally a complete genocide? or not?
Also in this hypothetical where Gaza has a desalination plant or whatever. Do you imagine this still working? or has it or the fuel required to keep it running been bombed yet?
You didn't read my post properly FE. I said Israel will wipe Hamas out of Gaza. I didn't say they would eliminate them. Hamas will go to ground somewhere else. It may be battered a bit but it will come back. It's biggest recruiting tool is the co-lateral damage the Israelis are doing. To many young Palestinians, Israel is in the process of proving Hamas' horror stories right. They might not be aware of the atrocities Hamas has committed, or the story will be tilted. Like the American idiot who stabbed a 6 year old child because "they were muslim". That is the level of thinking that is going on. This is very likely to g well beyond "very ugly". The challenge is do we, the rest of the world, stop it?
Reminds me of the movie "My Name is Khan". Well worth a watch if you haven't seen it. Based on the aftermath of 9/11 and the fear created towards Muslims.
One wonders as to the timing of Hamas' attacks now... More to it than we can know... We can only guess and simply repeat the stories we've been told by a bias media, our own bias'?
"All they are doing though is creating even more fighters for Hamas"
There isn't going to be a Hamas in the future Blobbles.
Of course, Israel will kill everyone. Then they will win right? And nobody will be affected cos they will murder all the children and family members of anyone remotely connected to Hamas too right?
TK has a self-justification bent a mile wide - everything under that umbrella.
The reality is that informal (guerrilla) war tends to beat conventional; you can't kill an idea, much less an angry one, and a Landcruiser with a few wily teenagers can tie-down a battalion at much less cost.
Outdated thinking. The 'wily teenager' guerilla in hilux approach was tried by ISIS and utterly crushed. It can work for low scale conflicts but up against western military high tech it has no chance, especially when deployed by a wounded and ruthless enemy. Hamas has located its forces behind human shields for good reason.
Pretty sure the last example of this was Afghanistan where a bunch of poorly equipped locals with old weapons forced the most powerful military force to ever exist with the most advanced weapons, out of their country.
Proposition was that poorly armed 'guerillas' beats high tech. From Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq/ISIS this has proved incorrect. In almost all such conflicts those with the best and most gadgets prevail ... at the purely military level. EG the NVA won no set piece campaigns against the US. Other factors such as war fatigue and changing domestic political landscape determines who 'wins'. In Gaza Israel will crush Hamas militarily but it'll be global revulsion at the civilian casualties, among whom Hamas has placed its forces, which determines the 'outcome'.
I think you are confusing battles and wars, PDK clearly said wars. As the US does not control either Vietnam or Afghanistan and being soundly beaten in both conflicts, I think its self evident.
I attempted to make a distinction between the military/tactical and political but without success. I shall retire, by your definition, 'soundly beaten'.
Same as it ever was...
The Crusades, empires conquering the world, the Doctrine of Discovery, the Great Wars, dominating the Natural Environment, war against this or that...
"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history" - Georg Hegel
All well and good bobbles, other than the whole post being nonsense. Firstly, there is, and has never been, a country called Palestine. Palestine is the name given to the area by the Romans after they invaded Jewish lands. The name was given after the Philistines, who were enemies of the Jews, straight after a Jewish revolt. And it isn’t the Israelis who have refused each and every peace deal that has been proposed. So making the claim that Israel wants to wipe out the Arabs in Gaza and the West Bank is drivel. They want to wipe out Hamas. And never loses sight of the fact that Hamas were elected by the people of Gaza as their Government! And Hamas want the destruction of the Jewish State and the deaths of all Jews. That is part of the reason why they have been designated as terrorists.Your grasp of the history of the area seems entirely minimal. And lastly, your belief that Israel should not be able to defend itself is repugnant, kids at a music festival were slaughtered. Women have been raped. And Israel should turn a blind eye?
Bro, they totally have a right to defend themselves.
Does indiscriminate bombardment of civilian targets and collective punishment of a people come under the term "self defense" for you, or does it come under the term "war crimes". Because its fairly well defined in international law.
I am only referring to recent history, Israel has ignored various UN resolutions in recent history, you are right, I don't know (nor really care) about what happened 2000 years ago, because all those people making those decisions back then are very dead. What I do know is if you slowly crush a people into smaller and smaller areas, you are going to get a violent response. I agree, both sides should go back to the 2 state solution approved by the UN in 1947 OR follow the Oslo Accords for 2 states. Both sides have religious hard liners in it that seem to make it impossible, but its well past time to start negotiations again instead killing each other. The hardline jews call all palestinian people animals that should all be slaughtered. The hardline palestinians call for the destruction of Israel. I get it.
All I want is for people to not die, particularly civilians who have nothing to do with the whole conflict and want to just live in peace.
Investors on risk...party like its 1929. One notes that October 24th is approaching again.
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