Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news that is increasingly positive in the world's largest economy.
First up today, the retail signals in the US are quite positive. Their Redbook survey of bricks-and-mortar store shows sales rose +3.9% last week from the same week a year ago, handily besting inflation again.
A bounce back in orders for transport equipment, including aircraft, gave a more-than-expected push to their February durable goods order levels. They came in +8.9% higher than year-ago levels. The capital goods orders came in +11.8% higher on the same basis. Certainly board rooms are giving bullish signals about the future.
Meanwhile, February house sales volumes rose in February. They were up a strong +9.5% from January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, but that still left these transaction volumes -3.3% lower than year ago levels. House prices rose marginally, ending a long string of month-on-month retreats that started in July 2023. It's a shift higher that others have noted too.
Given this set of positives, it maybe a surprise that consumer sentiment didn't improve in the March Conference Board survey. But it didn't slip either, holding its recent levels. The current mood improved but anxiety about the future did too.
The latest US Treasury 5yr note auction was very well supported, delivering a median yield of 4.19% and slightly lower than the 4.25% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. These public debt auctions are not showing any of the expected stress the doomsters anticipated by now. The lower yields are probably driven by normal market expectations of upcoming rate cuts by the Fed. Of course that doesn't mean the outlook is any better - it isn't if no action is taken by Congress to address the deficits.
(We should also perhaps note that parts of the US cattle herd has a problem with a Bird Flu infection.)
In Canada a measure of their wholesale trade activity rose more than expected in February.
In Singapore, they reported a better-than-expected rise in manufacturing production. It grew +3.8% in February from a year ago, easily beating market expectations of a +0.5% rise. The upturn was mainly boosted by a sharp rebound in biomedical manufacturing.
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The UST 10yr yield will today at 4.24% and down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is little-changed at -36 bps. And their 1-5 curve inversion is also little-changed at -77 bps. Their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is holding at -115 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is now at 4.05% and down -1 bp from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps at 2.31%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.67% and up +6 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has opened its Tuesday session with a minor +0.2% rise. Overnight European markets were mixed with London up +0.2%, Paris up +0.4%, and Frankfurt up +0.7%. Yesterday Tokyo closed unchanged. Hong Kong closed up +0.9%. Shanghai closed up +0.2%. Singapore ended its Tuesday session up a strong +1.1%. The ASX200 closed down -0.4% however, and the NZX50 closed down -0.3%.
The price of gold will start today marginally firmer by +US$2 from yesterday at US$2177/oz.
Oil prices have risen +50 USc to just under US$82/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$86/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today at just on 60.1 USc and marginally firmer than this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also marginally firmer at just over at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we have firmed slightly to 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today over 69.3 and again little-changed.
The bitcoin price starts today softer at US$69,695 and a -0.8% slip since this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 0.8%.
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