The US, Canada & Japan all report tame second tier data; China releases major data, mostly limp; EU wages up; Australia tax data released; UST 10yr 4.28%; gold down and oil up; NZ$1 = 61.3 USc; TWI-5 = 70.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news the steam seems to be going out of the Chinese economy as their property sector woes just drag on and on.

[There is no video version today.]

But first, although it is still retreating, the June New York factory survey improved sharply from May, with firms there increasingly positive about the next six months.

And Canada reported a much bigger jump in housing starts in May, far above what was expected.

However, previously fast-rising Japanese machinery orders fell in April in March, but were up slightly year-on-year.

China’s new home prices fell -3.9% year-on-year in May, falling further from a -3.1% drop in the previous month. It marked the 11th consecutive period of declining home prices and the steepest since mid 2015. This is all despite more property market stimulus from the government, which clearly hasn't turned the market yet. There are no major cities reporting any gains in resold houses, with some declines now well exceeding -10% from a year ago. In the new home market only 3 of 70 major cities are reporting year-on-year gains (all tiny) and the rest are all declines.

Chinese retail sales eased higher in May, up +3.7% when a +3.0% rise was expected. April rose +2.3% year-on-year, so this May result is an improvement. But you have to say, in the context of recent Chinese history, this is a modest gain. And remember, Chinese official CPI is rising less than +1% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, Chinese industrial production fell in May from April to be +5.6% higher than a year ago. Markets were expecting that change to be +6%. April had expanded +6.7% on that basis. Tellingly however, electricity production rose just +2.3% in May from a year ago, up only +0.7% from April, staying at the lowish levels it has for the past year. The Chinese central bank kept its one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility rate unchanged in June at 2.5%.

The changed and less outlook for China can also be seen in the benchmark copper price. The February to May enthusiasm has given way to a sharpish retreat.

And here's something you may not have expected; wages are rising quite fast in the EU, up +5.5% in Q1-2024 from a year ago, a spurt higher than the already quite good +4.1% rises in Q4-2023. And it may go higher. The huge IG Metal German union is seeking 7% pay rises now.

In Australia, stories are swirling that NSW is about to raise its land tax rate. (Land tax is separate from property taxes, and does not apply to the family home, or farm. But it does apply to most other land.) NSW isn't the first to do this.

And staying in Australia, data released by their tax authorities shows that more than 40% of their income tax paid by individuals is paid by the 5% who had taxable incomes of AU$180,000 and greater. At the other end of the scale, the 42% of taxpayers earning AU$45,000 or less paid 2.3% of their income tax.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28% and up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is still at -48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still inverted by -82 bps. But their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is less inverted at -107 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +4 bps at 4.18%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at 2.27%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.66% and unchanged from yesterday.

As signaled by the futures pricing, Wall Street is rising with the S&P500 up +0.9% in Monday trade. Overnight, European markets were mostly higher but with London down -0.1%, Frankfurt up +0.4% and Paris rebounding +0.9%. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session down -1.8%. Hong Kong was little-changed but Shanghai fell -0.6%. Singapore was on holiday (Eid el-Adha). The ASX200 ended -0.3% lower and the NZX50 dropped a sharp -1.4%.

The price of gold will start today down -US$17 at US$2317/oz.

Oil prices are up +US$1.50 at US$79.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$83.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed at just under 61.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are softer at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are -¼c lower at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -20 bps at just on 70.9.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,351 and down a very minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just under +/- 1.4%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».