Breakfast briefing: The northern world swelters

Economy / news

US data mixed but third-tier; excessive heat spreads to the US and Europe; Taiwan export orders high; SNB cuts; BofE holds; freight rates rise sharply again; UST 10yr 4.26%; gold and oil up; NZ$1 = 61.2 USc; TWI-5 = 70.7

21st Jun 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that the start of summer in the northern hemisphere brings excessive heat and ominous food security and immigration implications.

But first, initial US jobless claims slipped slightly last week after the prior week's rise. They remain low at +227,000 even if the level is its highest since February. There are now 1.734 mln people on these claims, little-changed from the prior week. No real sign of building labour market stress here yet.

Meanwhile, housing starts in the US fell -5.5% to an annualised rate of under 1.3 mln in May, the lowest since July 2020. April was downwardly revised. This unexpected decline shows that high interest rates are still weighing on their housing market. New building consents fell slightly too. This result came before the slight easing of mortgage interest rates in June.

The Philly Fed's Business Outlook June survey showed general activity edged lower but remained positive, while shipments and new orders remained mildly negative. These results were slightly less than expected.

We noted the extreme heat in northern India and the Middle East in yesterday's report. Well, it has extended into the eastern US as well with a major heat dome there too. It too is life threatening for some.

And we have noted before that severe drought and heat waves are gripping much of China's key agricultural areas. It is not getting any better there either.

China's loan prime rates remained unchanged at record lows after yesterday's China central bank review.

Across the Formosa Strait, Taiwanese export orders rose +7% year-on-year in May, more than expected but slowing from the +11% growth in April. The tech powerhouse country continues to benefit from a surge in AI applications, but demand also rose for chemical products.

The steady improvement in consumer sentiment in the EU was evident again in their June survey, although the improvement was slightly less than anticipated.

Staying in the region, the Swiss central bank cut its key policy rate by -25 bps to 1.25% at their June meeting overnight, following a similar move in the previous meeting. This was as expected. Underlying inflationary pressure is easing and the Swiss franc is strengthening, so it is an easy decision for them.

Meanwhile the English central bank also held a review and kept policy settings pat (and at a 16 year high), as expected. But they did indicate that rate cuts are coming there soon, mainly because of progress in getting inflation down.

Last week, the rise in container shipping freight costs accelerated again, up +7% from the prior week to be +233% higher than year-ago levels. China to Europe rates were especially hard hit last week. Bulk freight rates were up +6% last week to be up +80% from this time last year (but that was an unusual low point, to be fair).

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.26% and up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve inversion is still at -48 bps. Their 1-5 curve is still inverted by -84 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is less at -103 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield is up +5 bps at 4.28%. The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 2.25%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.65% and up +5 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street is back from holiday and the S&P500 is down -0.3% in Thursday trade. Overnight, European markets were all up between +0.8% (London) and +1.3% (Paris). Yesterday Tokyo ended its Thursday session up +0.2%. Hong Kong was down -0.5% and Shanghai fell -0.4%. Singapore was down -0.1%. The ASX200 ended essentially unchanged on Thursday but the NZX50 rose +0.9% in a good session.

The price of gold will start today up +US$26 at US$2355/oz.

Oil prices are up +50 USc at US$81/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just on US$85/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today a little softer at just under 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are marginally firmer at 92 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 57.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today unchanged at 70.7.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,672 and down -0.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just on +/- 1.5%.

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111 Comments

by Zachary Smith | 21st Jun 24, 7:29am 1718911795

Some people mock the US for failing to secure the Red Sea trade route however troubles there impact Chinese and European trade more than it does the US. The Great Game continues. Same game, different players.

by tim52 | 21st Jun 24, 8:23am 1718915007

I don't know what Yemen's current rules are for transit are but you are allowed though if you agree to boycott Israel. I think China to EU is still open. It's only 10m people not enough business to be worth it for you entire fleet having to go the long way.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Middle-East-crisis/Chinese-cargo-ships…

Not being able to deal with the "Houthis" is a massive blow to US imperialism.

by Zachary Smith | 21st Jun 24, 9:19am 1718918344

In the news above it says that Chinese shipping costs have been hard hit, likely because of increased insurance costs of transiting through the Red Sea.

The US is not an imperial power, the US is anti-imperialist. The Houthi menace is merely a nuisance. They hurt China more than the US. Sure the US has lost the odd drone but that's what drones are for. It's laughable to suggest he Houthis have dealt the US a "massive blow".

by tim52 | 21st Jun 24, 10:03am 1718921033

"The US is not an imperial power, the US is anti-imperialist."

What word view are you desperately trying to hold on to? Let's try this: go find one of those graphics that shows where all the US military bases are around the world post a link to it and then tell me again afterwards that the US is anti-imperialist. Or a map of countries that US has couped after they tried to enact anti US policies would work too.

"The Houthi menace is merely a nuisance." If you say that enough times you might just be able to believe it. The US of 2003 was at least able to invade Afghanistan and Iraq and now they have to keep their distance from Yemen because of a few cheap missiles and drones. The most recent consequence of this is the cancellation of the petrodollar agreement.

China would not use the route if it was not profitable. See the headline.

by linklater01 | 21st Jun 24, 11:12am 1718925164

tim52,

If you didn't already know, Zachary is always good for a laugh. he writes with great confidence on a number of topics, but merely underlines his profound ignorance of all of them. He is wonderful on the British Empire.

by tim52 | 21st Jun 24, 12:13pm 1718928803

I know but he is representative of the culturally stuck boomers that still want to believe the cold war never ended and US military still has the same dominance it had in the 90s.

by Baywatch | 21st Jun 24, 8:05am 1718913920

Someone said 1000 hajj pilgrims dieing of heat exposure is normal yesterday ....? Heat domes have always been this severe.

by JustAnOpinion | 20th Jun 24, 9:49am

Nope, that is not a difference. People were dying on the streets in 2004, I remember seeing them.

by murray86 | 21st Jun 24, 7:51am 1718913107

If it were normal, why then would it be news today? And i think you are wrong to suggest they have always been this severe. Reporting on them has only happened in the last couple of years. Yes there have been heat spikes in the past, but not to the degree or frequency that is occurring now.

People dying of heat stroke has always happened, and to be fair if any culture has come to terms with being able to live in that sort of environment it is the Arabs, but losing this many in a single Hajj? That would surely be unusual?

Yesterday I commented that science indicates that at and above 50 degrees C the body is unable to cool itself, but a huge number will be vulnerable at temperatures well below that. A hospital in Delhi, India has reported identifying internal body temperatures of 110 F when 98 is concerned the norm. At 110, the internal organs are already failing.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 8:17am 1718914627

If it were normal, why then would it be news today? And i think you are wrong to suggest they have always been this severe.

The problem we have now is that literally any weather event becomes a climate change story. So it's really hard to determine what extent of anything is related to climate change, because the news media will now seek out bad weather news to slot into that overarching narrative.

Sorta like how we're getting more airline related incident stories currently, alongside news of issues at Boeing. It's not like no one has ever died from turbulence in the past.

by tim52 | 21st Jun 24, 8:33am 1718915605

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38457640/

See figures 4 and 5.

Climate patterns always cycle and unless the states as fact it was the hottest ever chances are this has occurred in the past as well and even then they might also be manipulating the stats.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 8:53am 1718916817

We need to stick to science/math.

Firstly, the Hajj occurs earlier each year, so it will get closer to their winter, for a good few years ahead (not apples with apples).

Secondly, the numbers attending increase, in line with populations.

(One down-trend, one up).

So 'record' has to be tempered by 'date'; not by moving event. The all-time SA records are predominantly this century; tells us all we need to know, in geographical-time terms.

by tim52 | 21st Jun 24, 9:04am 1718917443

That link is published research.... and they are some plots most likely showing what you are describing. Have a closer look at the axis labels.

I really don't know enough about this but I would assume there have always been significant deaths associated with the pilgrimage.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 9:08am 1718917718

Yes, I seem to remember a year where 1000s where trampled to death. Something happens almost every year.

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 10:25am 1718922327

FFS being trampled to death has nothing to do with climate change. Dying due to extreme heat can be.

by pacifica | 21st Jun 24, 1:30pm 1718933414

if you undertake a desert walk for more then 6 hours with a severe cardiovascular condition, without any chance to stop & rest and without adequate water or provisions you are already highly likely to die without any severe heat, even in temperate climates it is likely to kill you. The real tragedy is that the highly likely outcome will be a loss to the family.

Using the above as an example of climate change is not only moronic but utterly self defeating in aim. Next time try to learn it is easy to spot misinformation and really bad arguments. Sure most don't have the ethics to speak out against misinformation but we do not do better with a more poorly educated population if we use misinformation tactics to advocate for sustainable changes to limit global anthropogenic climate change. We need people to be able to spot and call out blatant misinformation tactics like the ones used by yourself and the OP. If you want people to understand anthropogenic climate change learn to understand it yourself and stop with the misinformation tactics that not only worsen the public information understanding of science. You are also making more of the public more susceptible to greater fraud (often for the opposite side of your argument & for unscientific conspiracies inc far more population risks to health) as well as turn a great many away from your statements because you opted to use bad faith tactics and methods to try to score points.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:19am 1718918354

As data shows the planet is unequivocally heating because of human pollution, no doubt death rates will remain high/increase, in a part of the world already susceptible to climate extremes.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 9:35am 1718919320

Someone will 'seem to remember' that it isn't.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 10:22am 1718922146

...and here was me thinking that you knew so much about everything.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Mina_stampede

More than 2000 died in 2015 just like 'I seemed to remember'. My memory is very good.

by Baywatch | 21st Jun 24, 10:25am 1718922302

Might go for a swim today Oriental Bay... gorgeous..

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 10:46am 1718923566

That was a stampede. In September?

We're talking about heat.

What IS good, is your ability to self-reassure via cherry-picking.

by pacifica | 21st Jun 24, 1:32pm 1718933556

Interesting records also note significant numbers of those who died from heat stroke had severe medical issues that would put them at risk of death even performing daily activities, (let alone the Hajj).

Number of total death (mortality rate) by year and city during the Hajj (2012 – 2017).*.

Year Total Deaths

2012 1315

2013 637

2014 657

2016 714

2017 657

Looks like anyone using the Hajj for climate change points is just causing more harm to the issue and muddying the waters. Using the above as an example of climate change is not only moronic but utterly self defeating in aim. Next time try to learn it is easy to spot misinformation and really bad arguments. Sure most don't have the ethics to speak out against misinformation but we do not do better with a more poorly educated population if we use misinformation tactics to advocate for sustainable changes to limit global anthropogenic climate change. We need people to be able to spot and call out blatant misinformation tactics like the ones used by yourself and the OP. If you want people to understand anthropogenic climate change learn to understand it yourself and stop with the misinformation tactics that not only worsen the public information understanding of science. You are also making more of the public more susceptible to greater fraud (often for the opposite side of your argument & for unscientific conspiracies inc far more population risks to health) as well as turn a great many away from your statements because you opted to use bad faith tactics and methods to try to score points.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 2:43pm 1718937794

I must have learned the cherry picking thing from you. Someone has cherry picked the annual death toll from this pilgrimage and attached climate change to it, when it happens every year, and always has. I am sure it is hot every year. Maybe they forgot to take water bottles this year, who would know. Regardless of what they do they manage to kill a bunch of people every single year so it is not unusual. Aligning that with climate change is just more nonsense, but, it is consistent because everything bad that happens is sheeted back to climate change one way or another. Maybe the solution to this problem is to apply some good old fashioned New Zealand health and safety f**kwittery to the event and either ban it outright or make them install 100s of road cones that the people must follow and apply some silly covid separation rule of 1.5 meters between each person while they are within the road coned area. Surely that would solve all the problems.

by mfd | 21st Jun 24, 11:22am 1718925734

Next up, high numbers of deaths across Europe from 1914 to 1918 show that deaths from heat exhaustion in Europe are not related to climate change.

by Let me be Frank | 21st Jun 24, 11:10am 1718925035

Global warming is but one of the problems...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/19/microplasti…

by pacifica | 21st Jun 24, 1:42pm 1718934135

The clickbait of this article was strong & so it was often regurgitated by media without any scientific peer review or context (the same strategy that caused the vaccines cause autism conspiracy). What would be of significant interest would be an actual series of medical studies with actual peer studies instead of media republishing recons. Sadly our media cycles don't allow for medical research timeframes, or peer review. They need a constant stream of clickbait that sounds catchy. If it acts to stem anxiety in the male public even better, secondary to that would be concern for children. We also need a diverse series of population studies and source investigations. Even the initial review of this article showed severe flaws in approach and massive gaps that if reported without context applied for the public would be highly unethical. Oh look world media rose to the unethical award challenge.

I am sure our general public with dropping science & reading comprehension rates will be able to grasp the nuances. /sarc

by Let me be Frank | 21st Jun 24, 5:21pm 1718947283

The linking of micro plastics with penises may well be clickbait but the fact (scientifically ratified) that micro plastics are now found in organs of people and animals and every part of the environment should be cause for concern....but ignore if you so choose.

Excess carbon pollution is only one of our many problems.

by murray86 | 21st Jun 24, 9:01am 1718917296

that article indicates the trend is increasing, but Housemouse's (below) link is very relevant too (it made me smile).

by James Thrace | 21st Jun 24, 10:24am 1718922298

The 1930s was a lot hotter than it is today.

difference between then and now is that obesity was not a big thing in the 1930s so people were better able to regulate their body heat and cool off.

also more trees and shade opportunities instead of the concrete jungles that exist today.

and people could swim in rivers without fear of gastro

strange how it’s largely *that* generation what wrecked it for their grandchildren. Lootin’ and pollutin’ is not the way.

by the Joneses | 21st Jun 24, 10:31am 1718922716

"A common talking point aimed at refuting human-caused climate change is that the 1930s was the hottest decade in recorded history. This is true, but only for the United States during the era known as the Dust Bowl. It was far from true for the planet as a whole."

https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/does-1930s-record-heat-u…

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 9:01am 1718917313

The difference is now it is reported. Previously it wasn't, or wasn't available. When the last lot of major bush fires happened in Australia the greenies (and then the media) told us due to climate change, these would now happen all the time. That was of course a lie. The real truth is that almost the exact same number of bush fires happen now, as in the past, and much worse bush fires have occurred in the past also. The difference is we here about them more now due to international news being instant. Same with weather events and turbulence events. There are not generally more of them, there is just more reported. That's all. There is one thing however, and that is the destruction of the natural environment due to plastic bags floating around everywhere, killing all sorts of wildlife. So, the climate change cultists and the greenies should really own that since they invented them and go start cleaning up their mess instead of complaining that it is everyone else's fault (this should be real news).

by TronMVP | 21st Jun 24, 9:35am 1718919328

They invented plastic bags?

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 10:25am 1718922325

Yes. Plastic bags were invested because paper bags (that can be re-used, composed or whatever), were bad for the environment and plastic bags would save the world.

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/plastic-bags-pollutio…

by TronMVP | 21st Jun 24, 11:00am 1718924438

Thanks for that article.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:36am 1718919417

Nice spin by your denial cult. Personally I'd rather get my facts from experts, not random Jeremy and his QAnon fuelled bollocks.

Australian fire chiefs reporting on the climate linked fire crisis in Australia.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z1iya-k4sQY&t=8s&pp=ygU8Rm9ybWVyIEF1c3RyY…

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 10:29am 1718922565

I'm sure Jeremy would be out protesting with these clowns. Here's the thing fuckwits, the planet and physics doesn't give a fuck what you believe, that's why we have the scientific method for getting a better understanding of the physical world.

“CALM does agree existing infrastructures should be protected and maintained, for example sea walls and drainage, and steps should be taken to mitigate coastal erosion. We do not, however, believe the sea levels are rising significantly and we will all be flooded.”

https://www.thepost.co.nz/nz-news/350315031/residents-protest-against-k…

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 10:32am 1718922734

You can swear and curse as much as you like, but both of the items you are disputing are facts.

by the Joneses | 21st Jun 24, 12:34pm 1718930070

It is a fact that the person who invented the first plastic bags thought it would be good for the environment. However, they did not create single use plastic bags, they created reusable ones. I assume you are referring to single use bags with your deep concern for animal welfare?

Regardless, the fact that one person thought a product that they designed would be good for the environment (or possibly just used it as a selling point), does not discredit all other people who want to be more environmentally friendly, nor their ideas.

by the Joneses | 21st Jun 24, 12:43pm 1718930620

The fact that there has always been bushfires in Australia is correct. Fire is a natural part of the forests over there. Taking that as proof that there is no warming is not logically correct however. If you wanted to see if temperatures have risen in Australia, you would ask someone who is studying it like the following link.

https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/media/ccia/2.2/cms_page_med…

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 3:48pm 1718941699

...and the inverse of that is also true. That is the point.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 9:53am 1718920437

Bollocks.

You need to be called out.

How often have crowds of Aussies been on beaches waiting to be evacuated?

https://plastic.education/history-of-plastic-bags-how-did-we-get-here/

Stop cherry-picking to invent a case. The one thing about 'environmentalists', is that they don't do it for money, they do it because they care. The GND types will not always get it right; they're still believers in what economists peddle (unlimited economic growth - it happens to fit with 'care'; you can claim the ability to 'lift people out of poverty' while reducing energy-input - a cognitively dissonant pair if ever there were one).

But they're much to be preferred of short-term, self-centred, argue foe me/now types.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 9:55am 1718920508

They're often still pretty self centered, they just have a self righteous soap box to ascend, to make them feel they've somehow elevated themselves egoically.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 10:06am 1718921177

If you are going to criticise "greens" for being self righteous, at least their plan isn't to trash the only planet able to support complex life in our sector of the galaxy.

I would have thought greens would be well down the list of those deserving a lashing, considering the psychopaths and their drones actually wrecking our life support systems for a handful of cash?

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 11:17am 1718925456

We can't really limit psychopathy to the behaviour you're describing.

PDK likes to put "growth" as the fundamental problem, but the problem really is the evolutionary tendency for the human mind to place itself as being somehow distinct from the world around it.

So the identity of "green" hasn't really resolved this problem. It's still a dualistic construct.

Can we fundamentally address what is innate in us as humans? Potentially, but it requires self realization rather than shouting.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 24, 12:28pm 1718929688

This. The view that we are somehow special, above other species instead of being part of a system that requires balance and where death is natural and a certainty, not something to avoid and prolong for as long as medically possible. Hence why I heavily favour cremation vs burials, as at least as ashes, your bones too can contribute to new life someway when scattered, and the cycle continues.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 12:45pm 1718930731

"the evolutionary tendency for the human mind to place itself as being somehow distinct from the world around it."

Disagree. That is learned behavior. It can be unlearned. Before the era of monotheism humans behaved differently. That's the thing about humans, as individuals we can rationalise behavior.......if allowed to. Like all species, we seek out the easiest way to obtain energy, by instinct.

Letting others do thinking for you is an energy saving fault in the human psyche, used against our interests by the worst among us, but we have the ability to overcome this if the avalanche of BS is staunched.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 1:23pm 1718932999

Disagree. That is learned behavior.

It's innate in humans once they reach about 2.

Those non-monotheist belief structures came to be as a direct response to our natural proclivities.

I'd agree I can be un-learned, the challenge is for real individual progress to be made, the individual has to be extremely willing. If you're sitting there making moral judgements, it gets much harder for your message to come across.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 1:49pm 1718934545

2 year olds are a blank slate. Beyond this age instictiveness is replaced over time with learned behavior.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 2:43pm 1718937827

2-3 is a time when brain synapses develop a level of egocentrism. Most people who've ever had young children can spot the point where a previously charming toddler starts developing a sense of wants. Our thoughts at this age become indistinct from our view of the rest of the world.

Our actual ability to influence their behaviour starts taking a backseat from then on. Some say it's gone altogether by 7, others 12.

by Final Account | 21st Jun 24, 3:30pm 1718940620

About 2 weeks ago my daughter would have been 2 years and 8 months old, and is now a lying, thieving ego maniac. So about then, yes.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 4:07pm 1718942843

Palmtree would seem to think that's all you chief.

Then when you try to reprimand them, it's the biggest injustice ever.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 6:44pm 1718952288

Yeah, it's called learnt behaviour. It's when consumerism immerses them and sets them up on their journey to good little life long consumers, preferably funded with debt. Having had children myself I was careful to limit exposure to this training and frankly it worked. As twenty somethings they are aware of the systemic manipulation of current culture.

"Give me the child until he is seven and I will show you the man" Aristotle

by Pa1nter | 22nd Jun 24, 8:22am 1719001372

We're confusing two different processes here:

- the ability to imprint information, values, behaviour etc into a young human

- the brains change from an infant's mostly sensorimotor functions, to a toddlers development of a mind able to think in abstraction, and of one's self.

Addressing the latter is a fundamental core of many of the non theistic belief systems. Less the subject matter of your thoughts, and more how you are using your mind. That branches out into how you and I view ourselves in relationship to everything else.

My kids sound like your kids. They're not into recreational shopping, and all their clothing is second hand. I've never told them what to do, I have always just explained your actions have consequences and it's up to you. And from watching so many kids grow up, I actually think it's not what you tell your kids, but how they respond to how the parents are behaving.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 10:29am 1718922547

Spin it however you like. It was a massive fail. Needs to be called out. You cannot on the one hand blame everyone else, and then hide the fact that you created the problem. It is like the arsonist standing around at a house fire complaining that the fire department are not putting out the fire fast enough. I think how people refer to this, is an inconvenient truth.

by K.W. | 21st Jun 24, 10:52am 1718923925

Yes, can't believe they tried to blame the Singapore flight that hit turbulence on climate change. Like turbulance had never happened before in the history of aviation.

And every hurricane, cyclone, typhoon, and anything over a mild wind is now climate change. Along with trying to gaslight people into believing that a temperature of 24 degrees is "an extreme heatwave". No, its called SUMMER.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 12:53pm 1718931192

Because human caused heating is global, i.e. energy trapped in our climate system resulting from human activity, every weather event has an input of increasing human interference now!

"Climate change is making clear air turbulence more common"

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulence-climate-c…

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 12:56pm 1718931387

Well if you believe that I guess.

by dollar_bill | 21st Jun 24, 2:00pm 1718935222

nothing to do with belief or reckons. Turbulence data has been measured and analyzed. Feel free to provide a study and research data refuting this.

by pacifica | 21st Jun 24, 1:25pm 1718933117

Interesting records also note significant numbers of those who died had severe medical issues that would put them at risk of death even performing daily activities, (let alone the Hajj).

Number of total death (mortality rate) by year and city during the Hajj (2012 – 2017).*.

Year Total Deaths

2012 1315

2013 637

2014 657

2016 714

2017 657

Looks like anyone using the Hajj for climate change points is just causing more harm to the issue and muddying the waters. A better point to make would be to focus on the smaller ecological effects in those areas caused by climate change that are far more significant in the long run (especially related to species survival, food supplies, water & logistics). Sadly the deaths at the Hajj, like many in desert nations, often get little effect by local govts but are used for props by others in temperate climates. You cannot prevent the deaths without effective change and ensuring more controlled access. Nobody in that area really wants that though. Like scaling Everest it is probably not advisable to do the Hajj with a severe heart condition, immune and respiratory failure already and then try to do it in heavily crowded conditions that put you at risk of severe exposure for long periods. Protip don't do something so deadly to healthy humans that your death becomes a near certainty. It will hardly drive change. It can even be written off as natural in those same medical centers because to go into strenuous activity in exposed conditions will likely risk death.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 1:34pm 1718933686

Anything that results in disaster, is climate change, that is the narrative, and why the climate cultists lost the room ages ago.

by pacifica | 21st Jun 24, 2:05pm 1718935502

Even with strong evidence for anthropogenic climate change the misinformation in messaging and media has caused far more to turn away from initiatives that previously had higher social cohesion & participation leading to worsening of environmental impacts. E.g. rising rates of burning, increased fly tipping, burnouts, more fast fashion purchasing & disposable consumer culture, tossing appliances that become uneconomic to fix instead of stripping parts & recycling, more theft of public services structures, push for higher amounts of wasteful events that increase generator fuel use, more trashing of local parks and spaces during events, more disposable tech (even solar tech that does not last a single season), stripping kaimoana on shores & local waters etc.

The silent generation is actually far more environmentally conscious and participated more in sustainability initiatives then our current millennial and gen z who are far more wasteful in practice. The baby boom generation is actually in the middle between these generational gaps. Even with the rise in better technology it does not offset the waste and harmful practices. This is actually the downfall. The use of misinformation messaging does not aid a cause it only leads people to harm it more.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 2:08pm 1718935687

I certainly agree with that. If there is a problem, it is most probably far less serious that it's made out to be (almost certainly), and the messaging is so dramatic and mostly made up, it has turned most people off, and they now ignore it. Just like the person that cried wolf too much.

by murray86 | 21st Jun 24, 7:54am 1718913255

The US opening up approval for Ukraine to carry out counter strikes into Russia is long over due. Russian military leadership may well find they need a bigger buffer. Belarus might want to think twice about hosting Russian military too, if attacks are to be launched from there.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 8:09am 1718914169

The US also looks to be halting delivery of Patriot anti air/missile munitions to regular customers, and diverting deliveries to Ukraine. While Russian anti-air assets in Russia and Ukraine have been a point of focus for recent strikes.

It would appear they're gearing up to try and establish an air corridor for the incoming F-16s. Russia seems woeful at combined arms, it'll be interesting to see if the Ukranians have managed to abandon Soviet style doctrine themselves.

by Baywatch | 21st Jun 24, 8:18am 1718914708

Yes my order was cancelled, quite put out for the bowling club security system.

by Pa1nter | 21st Jun 24, 8:24am 1718915074

The green never saw those seagulls coming.

by nktokyo | 21st Jun 24, 8:09am 1718914184

Quite cold here this morning so climate change is BS

by HouseMouse | 21st Jun 24, 8:36am 1718915775

I don’t usually engage in the binary arguments around climate change. But thought I would share this exceptional article:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/20/what-if-the…

by Timmyboy | 21st Jun 24, 9:48am 1718920081

Yes indeed. Any objective look at the evidence will tell you we are totally f*cked.

But the human capacity for willing self-delusion is strong and we are all capable of it. Some describe it in evolutionary terms.

Fascinating stuff from Varki here.

"Mind Over Reality Transition": The Evolution of Human Mortality Denial | Center for Academic Research and Training in Anthropogeny (CARTA)

by HouseMouse | 21st Jun 24, 10:06am 1718921175

Yep.

focus on adaptation

by Beanie | 21st Jun 24, 10:20am 1718922055

Good link mouse. PDK often criticizes people for not getting the science (physics) but he doesn't quite get the science of human behavior. We aren't giving up fossil fuels until they are gone, but I disagree that his post collapse scenario is as close as he thinks.

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 10:40am 1718923237

There is a chance it doesn't play out how he says in the timeframe he says, but what do you think his margin of error is? 10 years, 20 years, 30 years?

Because looking at hard data on the physics (much less open to reckons) and looking at historical precedent for how humanity might respond (debatable but fairly consistent response when you look at the long history of societal collapses) I can't see how our kids/grandkids escape a devastated planet, conflict, famine and disease.

There is a very slim and ever decreasing window that would allow us as a species to minimise the level of devastation but it requires us, the global super rich and super-consumers to change our lifestyle (not the super poor).

by Beanie | 21st Jun 24, 2:22pm 1718936571

The time-frame I don't know, other than I think it will likely be a bumpy descent tied to oil availability rather than a quick and lasting collapse.

Pdk is currently posting a graph showing food production collapsing from next year without any reasonable commentary as to why. A couple of times now I have managed to wiggle a date of collapse from him, both have passed without it being so.

It is a very small percentage of environmentally aware people I know that live a non-consumerist lifestyle. They could, but they choose not to. In NZ if your cost of living is more than your rates bill plus say 5k (without bludging off others) then you are likely consuming at an unsustainable level that exceeds most other humans on the planet. Now who wants to give up the easy life and do that?

by tis i | 21st Jun 24, 10:32am 1718922767

“What if there just is no solution to that on any sort of meaningful scale?”

Someone finally came out and said it.

by Advisor | 21st Jun 24, 8:40am 1718916035

Clearly public spending and increased demand for public services kept our GDP rolling over in the last 4 quarters.

Meanwhile, the real economy that is supposed to help us pay for all that is tanking YoY.

- Manufacturing -1.2%

- Construction -3.1%

- Mining -1.7%

- Wholesale trade -0.3%

Under no scenario does this end well.

by rastus1 | 21st Jun 24, 9:01am 1718917279

They can measure ground water via satellite. And the news is not good.

The gravity variations studied by GRACE were used to determine ground water storage on land masses. By comparing recent data to an average over time, scientists can generate an anomaly map to see where ground water storage has been depleted or increased.

Groundwater Depletion in India, 2002-2008 : GRACE-FO (nasa.gov)

Water Storage | Science – GRACE-FO (nasa.gov)

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 24, 10:12am 1718921575

Interesting how there shows to be significant decline in groundwater along the inland Alaskan coast given they have a fair bit of snow annually and one would assume this feeds the groundwater sufficiently for human extraction.

by Whatwillhappen | 21st Jun 24, 9:18am 1718918291

Fascinating analysis of geopolitics from RNZ.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/519988/why-new-zealand-needs-to-prepare-now-for-a-future-in-a-world-without-china

Talks fertility/production, the rise of piracy threatening globalisation, and the effects this could have (more coal/wood consumed), the 2-pillar trade policy we have with China.

by rastus1 | 21st Jun 24, 9:21am 1718918515

it's all in his book. A good read. The End Of The World Is Just The Beginning: Mapping The Collapse Of Globalization : Zeihan, Peter: Amazon.com.au: Books

Does a weekly you tube.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Jun 24, 9:33am 1718919220

"2019 was the last great year for the world economy.

For generations, everything has been getting faster, better, and cheaper. Finally, we reached the point that almost anything you could ever want could be sent to your home within days - even hours - of when you decided you wanted it.

America made that happen, but now America has lost interest in keeping it going"

Aligns with the US 10 year yield - a 40 year trend ended in 2019/2020. Something broke/change over the time period and (to me) it appears that we have moved to a whole new phase of the global economy which is only just now beginning. Aligns also with the theory of the 4th turning (end of the boomer reign over the economy and the rise of the millennials).

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 10:06am 1718921160

Not sure I agree with his suggestion that we align with the US - I see them falling apart equally as fast as China.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Jun 24, 10:09am 1718921389

Both reliant upon one another, not that they would like to admit that. America to import their cheap goods (to keep costs down), and the China to receive the influx of payments for their manufacturing of said goods (to keep employment/wages increasing).

Imagine what will happen to the world if we stop importing Chinese goods? (and they stop buying our exports).

by rastus1 | 21st Jun 24, 11:52am 1718927526

It's all in the book. Such as the pivot away from China, enter Mexico big popn, low wages and on doorstep.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 12:59pm 1718931552

His point about hitching ourselves to the US is nonsense. We need to sacrifice our soul to get into the club?

The US isn't interested in anything we can supply, so what is the actual benefit? More Wall St bankers able to supply work to local builders for their doomsday bunkers?

by AN Other | 21st Jun 24, 10:54am 1718924085

Just a point regarding Peter Zeihan - he has been banging on about the imminant collapse of China for well over 5 years, both in books and on Youtube.

As another Youtuber pointed out, he is a speculative analyst and his conclusions are at the extreme end of the spectrum:

Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story (youtube.com)

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 1:23pm 1718932984

An economist fact-checking?

Oxymoron of the day.

They appraise a little closed circle - no stocks, no depletions, only flows.

by Independent_Observer | 21st Jun 24, 10:04am 1718921078

US is now spending more on interest expense than Defence spending.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GQWQ_gqWAAA-QQg?format=png&name=small

I was reading elsewhere that if/when this happens to the global power of the time, it is a sign that it is end of empire stuff (can't find link right now).

The US desperately (in my view) to pull back from its international commitments and sure up its own house before it tries to play world police. But this seems to be the trend of all global super powers - they over commit globally then impoverish their own people at home trying to keep their global power status. ie. they either have to tax their citizens heavily to keep defence spending up, or they have to devalue their currency to the eventual point that there is a run on that currency - which is the end game.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 10:10am 1718921436

Agreed - but given the scale/footprint of historical hegemonies, there was always room for another to rise, somewhere else.

This time - for the first and only possible time - the experiment is running globally. Not enough left for China to displace the US; not enough for the US to re-boot. Leadership can only blame 'others'; the net result is always war.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 24, 10:14am 1718921656

That's the historic trend with previous empires such as the Spanish, Dutch and English. None have ever managed to pull their territory back to keep their mouths fed, as power is hard to relinquish.

by rolande | 21st Jun 24, 10:33am 1718922815

That amount of debt and interest is an inconvenient truth. But those who don't like it just dial up Paul Krugman (nobel winner) who says that debt and interest don't matter.

by powerdownkiwi | 21st Jun 24, 10:53am 1718924028

I have a lot of time for Krugman; The Great Unravelling is right in front of me on the bookshelf - but the problem with debt is it needs belief that it can be repaid, or the system falls over - bank runs, flights to safety, not enough backing, end of story. Nearly happened in '08, and can't be held off if ( when) it happens again.

by rolande | 21st Jun 24, 12:15pm 1718928915

Exactly. They don't like being called "fiat" currencies but that's exactly what they are, backed by power and assertion, and then the belief in that power. When the belief runs out then the proverbial hits the fan real quick.

by interesting1234 | 21st Jun 24, 12:37pm 1718930220

In essence, a system is only as useful as the belief by it's users that it functions. Our economies and governments are held up on the fragility of human sentiment and trust. Bizarre to the N'th degree when you pull back and see this objectively isn't it? You get one life to play the game, gamble your whole life (investments) in the goal to be able to live out your later, less functional years in comfort and with the hope that your parent's haven't passed you the short straw of genetics that may leave you incapable of even living them out no matter how well you look after yourself. Eat drink and be merry folks, enjoy the one life you have and value the small things :-)

by K.W. | 21st Jun 24, 10:48am 1718923717

Its called the El Nino phase. Its NORMAL

El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation…

Don't worry, when it switches back to La Nina the climate change hysterics will be screaming about people freezing to death.

by Baywatch | 21st Jun 24, 11:27am 1718926060

So glad we have the experts here on the sight..😏

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 12:46pm 1718930778

We also have the Tongan volcano that is going to cause changes in the climate for the next 5-10 years, like the massive floods in NZ and AUS over the past few years. Climate change scientists don't really know what the full effects will be, so they are just guessing like normal (but it will be bad of course). So, we need to panic about that also. We really need to find the human that kicked the top of that volcano so we can all point to human induced climate change and panic that little bit more.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 1:32pm 1718933567

We are already 2 years past Hunga Tonga. It's effects are rapidly disappearing.

"The solar flux reduction by aerosols is larger than the net IR flux increase due to stratospheric water vapor. In other words, the direct solar radiative cooling associated with the HT aerosols overwhelms the enhanced thermal radiation from stratospheric water vapor plume. Our results are in good agreement with net radiative forcing changes estimated by Silletto et al. (2022) and Zhu et al. (2022). We find that the zonal mean peak change in net radiative forcing occurs in May 2022, but the SH average forcing peaks in June/July as the constituents spread throughout the SH. Using the observed impact on tropospheric temperatures from Pinatubo as a scale, Hunga-Tonga would produce an SH annual average surface temperature change of less than −0.038°C for clear skies and −0.021°C for all skies."

https://essopenarchive.org/users/543714/articles/644623-the-estimated-c…

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 1:38pm 1718933902

The effects are supposedly going to last 8-10 years.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:21pm 1718961707

Obviously the effects on day 3650 aren't going to be as noticeable as day 100! Nor will effects completely disappear on day 3651, but other climate forcings will dominate to the point HT is irrelevant. The eruption is irrelevant compared to human greenhouse gas pollution, which incidentally remains the dominant climate forcing since HT.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 1:10pm 1718932200

El Nino is getting hotter due to human CO2 pollution.

From your reference.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_Oscillation…

by Peter M | 21st Jun 24, 11:25am 1718925957

I believe the the clearest economical heads are living in Bern, Switzerland!

by vman | 21st Jun 24, 12:14pm 1718928879

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/christopher-luxon-and-the-c-listers…

Christopher Luxon and the C-Listers: An open letter to the Prime Minister about trade delegations from Ian Taylor

by 26@Main | 21st Jun 24, 2:07pm 1718935676

A good letter from Ian Taylor, what country needs a Prime Minister that puts down its citizens and successful ones to boot.

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 4:18pm 1718943491

I don't get the climate change deniers on this site. I mean it takes a special kind of arrogance to confidently go against 99.9% scientific consensus on human induced climate change when you aren't even a climate scientist but why?

What's the point?

It's literally like going on a site having never done any training in civil engineering and telling the building crew to disregard the structural drawings and do something completely different because you saw a nice render on a Facebook page.

Jeremy, Pacifica, can any of you explain why you are so confident about your science when the rest of the scientific community is telling you the opposite? It's baffling.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 4:31pm 1718944304

The climate is variable, it changes all the time, always has, always will. Every single time a climate prediction has been made in the last 50 or so years, it has been wrong. I don't think it is that hard to understand why most people doubt it or are unconcerned about (I will give it to you that 3% of people said that climate change was an issue for them, in the last issues poll I saw, down from 9% last year, and insignificant compared to the 39% of people highlighting cost of living as an important issue). When 3% list such a supposedly important issue as an important issue for them, it kind of highlights that 97% of people either don't believe or don't care.

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 5:36pm 1718948203

Right so no science background but you're definitely confident you know more than actual scientists.

And pretty much every climate prediction has happened as predicted.

You might be confusing weather with climate but it's fine, it's just good to know you're talking shit and are in no way qualified to even comment on the topic.

Have a good weekend.

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 5:45pm 1718948740

Actually I do have a science degree as well. But...I don't think it makes a lot of difference to you anyway. I know a bunch of other people with science degrees too, that like to call themselves 'climate scientists', and their science degrees are things like animal behaviour and chemistry,.....but, they still argue till they are blue in the face that they know about climate change because they are 'scientists'. Seems par for the course.

And pretty much every climate prediction has happened as predicted. Haha. Nice one.

Some light reading for you.

https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsday-addiction-celebrating-50-years-f…;

You have a nice weekend too.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:29pm 1718962150

Usual denier bollocks taken completely out of context. You do realise many of those warnings never came to pass BECAUSE the science was taken seriously?

by jeremyr | 21st Jun 24, 11:19pm 1718968771

Sounds like grasping at straws to be honest. The truth is that you actually have no idea, and no one cares. I guess you just have to get with the program and get used it.

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:32pm 1718962331

Climate models that predicted the emissions track that actually eventuated were indeed accurate!

https://www.science.org/content/article/even-50-year-old-climate-models….

by Palmtree08 | 21st Jun 24, 9:42pm 1718962942

They are capitalist growth cultists, probably fancying themselves as "libertarian", although not really intellectual enough to know what freedom means, or what personal responsibility entails, possibly with a dash of anthropogenic supremacy masters of the universe delusion thrown in, just to complete the full yeast/lemming picture.

by agnostium | 21st Jun 24, 4:16pm 1718943415

Maybe to help the discussion along you can start by stating whether you have a science degree and then explain why you think climate change is a hoax. I'm really interested to hear from the non-scientists who are so confident they know better than the scientific community.