Breakfast briefing: China stimulus fizzes

Economy / news

China stimulates its car market, but little else; US Q3 earnings strong; Bitcoin has a moment; Malaysia has a building boom; UST 10yr at 4.35%; gold and oil lower again; NZ$1 = 59.6 USc; TWI = 68.9

12th Nov 24, 7:19am by David Chaston

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news that there was little economic data released overnight, so this report will be quite thin - and short. (It's Veterans Day in the US, some markets are closed.)

First up today we should note that China's October vehicle sales surged by +7% from a year ago to just over 3 million units in in the month. This contrasted with the -1.7% drop on that basis in September, and shows that recent government policy measures aimed at boosting the retail market are in fact having an impact. Domestic NEV penetration exceeded 50% for a third straight month.

That is a bright spot because the wider new yuan loan data for October was weak - again. In fact, very weak. At ¥500 bln new lending in October was the least since 2009. It was well below the low bar analysts had expected of ¥700 bln and emphasises just how little real-economy 'investment' is taking place at present. So far, their stimulus model has been a fizzer.

In the US we should probably note that Q3 earnings for Wall Street have come in very positively with most companies having now reported. And most delivered better-than-expected results. So it will be no surprise that indexes like the S&P500 are running at record high levels.

Following the US election, bitcoin is having a moment, spurred by the perceived influence the crypto-bros will have in the incoming Administration. Bitcoin hasn't changed. It is still not a unit of account, not a medium of exchange, and hardly even a store of value. It's not anonymous either (which makes it an odd choice for the libertarian crypto crowd), and is a clunky transaction device that holders notice when they try to buy (with fiat currencies). But its speculation attributes are currently making holders seem wealthy in fiat terms.

In the real world, we should probably note that Malaysia is going through quite a construction boom, largely for residential buildings. Construction activity rose by +23% in the third quarter of 2024 from a year ago, the tenth consecutive period of heady growth. Construction of non-residential building is booming too.

The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.35% and up +4 bps from yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now more positive, by +10 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is still inverted by -12 bps. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is less inverted, now by -24 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.62% and up +6 bps. The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 2.12%. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is also little-changed at 4.68%, up just +1 bp from yesterday.

Wall Street has started its Monday marginally lower. Overnight European markets were all up about +1% however. Yesterday Tokyo ended its Monday session up +0.1%. Hong Kong however fell -1.5%. Shanghai rose +0.5%. Singapore rose +0.4%. The ASX200 ended its Monday session down -0.3% and the NZX50 fell -0.7% in a dour start to the week.

The price of gold will start today at US$2616/oz and down -US$68 from this time yesterday.

Oil prices are -US$2.50 lower at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar starts today at 59.6 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 90.7 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +40 bps to 56 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.9, and up +20 bps from yesterday.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,265 and up +5.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just on +/- 4.1%.

Daily exchange rates

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Source: RBNZ

Source: CoinDesk

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91 Comments

by Baywatch | 12th Nov 24, 8:05am 1731351908

Bitcoin having a bit of a moment....spat out my coffee on that piece of news.

Que same old reasons why BTC will fail and not a store of value ...lets get to 100 comments today - lets do this!

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 9:09am 1731355776

I admitted defeat a long time ago. It looks like it will indeed be around for a while, and is probably a good investment.

by General Comment | 12th Nov 24, 11:39am 1731364744

Just checked my Sharesies to see how things are going. Took me a while to spot MSTR in my list as it had gone from 20th to 4th position overnight. IBIT also heading for the stars.

by BlackKrim | 12th Nov 24, 1:05pm 1731369959

Before the election I put $800 USD on Coinbase (COIN) and $200 USD on TSLA. These were the easiest trades to have made and a great time for low-risk to high reward trades. Shares generally go up after the election nearly all the time.

by powerdownkiwi | 12th Nov 24, 7:47am 1731350841

'and hardly even a store of value'.

Neither is fiat money, David.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 7:59am 1731351544

No PDK. While I understand your perspective, for ordinary people who do not control much if any of wealth, fiat currency is a store of wealth as it is supported in legislation, by government policy and is recognised as a common trading medium. BTC is none of these.

True in a crunch it does not represent a real tangible resource, but you can't eat gold or oil, nor ore. Indeed most resources have little value without the means to put them to use. How that is achieved is down to governments more often than individuals. To achieve what you have, self sufficiently living off the grid takes more resources than most of us have these days, and is largely unachievable for us. To carry your message you should couch it in terms that make it achievable for people. "Go back to living in caves!" is not a message that will fall on receptive ears. "Challenge your politicians on what policies are being delivered" might be.

by Let me be Frank | 12th Nov 24, 8:02am 1731351768

"...fiat currency is a store of wealth as it is supported in legislation, by government policy and is recognised as a common trading medium."

You forgot a very important feature....the ability to enforce/maintain 'ownership', aka military power.

by Baywatch | 12th Nov 24, 8:06am 1731351963

and print it to infinity to pay for that military power

by Averageman | 12th Nov 24, 8:18am 1731352690

That is exactly why crypto is a thing. It's outside of the control, manipulation and debasement of govt policy.

by rastus1 | 12th Nov 24, 8:37am 1731353858

Prove to Govt how you paid for item X? I purchased it using BTC. The under our new govt policy that is deemed to be the proceeds of a crime so we are confiscating it.

Why could a Govt not do this?

by Threecents | 12th Nov 24, 8:39am 1731353965

Fiat currency isn't a store of wealth when you consider the effects of inflation.

BTC is doing a fine job of distraction attracting people who will jump on a band-wagon if it keeps going up in value. Nothing wrong with buying BTC for speculation of course but I’m not sure what else it is. I suspect the central banks are very happy that people are buying BTC instead of gold.

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 9:20am 1731356418

"Nothing wrong with buying BTC for speculation of course" - well there is because its like a pyramid scheme.

If it did end up becoming the world's currency, it would concentrate money into the hands of the early adopters creating extreme inequality. If it fails, like any pyramid scheme it is the big block at the bottom that lose everything. I guess you could argue all assets with a fixed/limited supply have these attributes, but the speculative element of Bitcoin is far worse, it makes housing look sensible.

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 9:53am 1731358392

Yes, it would be a shame if anything replaced such an equal system as our current one, where around 50% of the worlds wealth is concentrated into the hands of the top 1%. And where the bottom half of the worlds adult population has just 1% of global wealth. Very fair.

by Threecents | 12th Nov 24, 10:22am 1731360175

I’m not going to tell people they can’t ‘invest’ in something, anyone should do their own due diligence. Speculative assets should not form the majority of your portfolio etc. There can be risks or bubbles with most assets that people invest in. However I’m pretty sure that taxpayers won’t be on the hook to bail out bitcoin funds in the next crash.

Central bank digital currency maybe coming however if bitcoin survives it will remain an alternative currency, certainly not the world’s currency. The bankers would make CBDC transactions mandatory for common goods and services before bitcoin became a major currency. There is no way the bankers would be happy to lose their power.

by Jonny.Foe | 12th Nov 24, 8:00am 1731351642

No, but you can pay your rates / taxes / legal fines etc with it, or go to jail. Fiat currency is both enforced by state violence and backed by the same state as legal tender. That's what gives it value.

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 8:27am 1731353223

Exactly PDK. And despite what some commentators here have tried to claim already, fiat has never been, and never will be a store of value. In fact it is expressly designed not to be. Inflation anyone? This is why people have always tried to buy assets that will protect them from this devaluation. Nothing different is happening here. Bitcoin is just a better asset for this purpose than others, so will draw value away from them.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 8:42am 1731354135

From your perspective then, nothing can ever be an effective store of value.

What must happen is a clear definition of "value" must be established including who defines it. In reality it is simply an agreement between two people, in a moment, and can vary significantly in any direction under the influence of external factors from moment to moment. Fiat though is backed by an issuing government (which means all its economic assets). Inflation is an artificial construct imposed by economists on economic models and bought by gullible politicians.

What underpins BTCs value for example? Demand only, and what happens when and if that demand stops?

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 9:11am 1731355902

You're confusing 'store of value' with 'medium of exchange'. Fiat is the latter, it's never been the former.

Inflation is not a construct that governments have been fooled into buying into. It's built in to the fiat system, it's part of the whole reason for fiat existing. After the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 governments were able to control inflation to a greater degree, now they were no longer constrained in their ability to create money.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 10:06am 1731359217

How can something that is considered to be a medium of exchange (FIAT) not be in some form, a store of value? That value may vary some what due to a number of factors but it remains a store of value. Why would someone accept an item in exchange for something if it did not in some respect represent some value?

Don't you mean BEFORE Bretton Woods 1971? Tossing the gold standard into touch is what enabled them to print money essentially without constraint.

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 10:28am 1731360493

Fiat absolutely represents some value, you're right. But that value is constantly decreasing over time, sometimes faster than others as we've seen over the last few years. A 'store of value' needs to at least hold steady. Like the old adage about an ounce of gold buying a fine toga in ancient Rome, and today it buys a good-quality men's suit. It has held its value over millenia. It's only in paper money terms gold has increased over 2000 years. It still buys a similar amount of goods and services.

No, the Bretton Woods system ran from 1944 to 1971. "On 15 August 1971, the United States ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold, effectively bringing the Bretton Woods system to an end and rendering the dollar a fiat currency"

by Threecents | 12th Nov 24, 11:12am 1731363146

You can barter goods, say three oranges for 1 watermelon. They would be a medium of exchange but not a long-term store of value. They would start to rot... From Investopedia...

Money is a medium of exchange. It allows people and businesses to obtain what they need to live and thrive.
Bartering was one way that people exchanged goods for other goods before money was created.
Like gold and other precious metals, money has worth because it represents something valuable.
Fiat money is government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity but by the stability of the issuing government.
Above all, money is a unit of account - a socially accepted standard unit with which things are priced.

by powerdownkiwi | 12th Nov 24, 12:14pm 1731366879

Murray - one simple answer: Time.

And a supplementary one: Continued belief.

by powerdownkiwi | 12th Nov 24, 9:21am 1731356491

Murray - by definition, fiat is NOT backed; it is partially backed. That's what fiat is, and the multiplier effect makes it a ludicrous expectation that the future will deliver ever-more, forever.

You also need to notice that governments are now the slaves of both banking, and of the transnational companies. Both are soaking so much of the forward energy-expectation, that governments are increasingly left with 'not enough'. Worse, the folk they'd need to tax, are being squashed too - at whatever level they are/were.

The irony is that the transnationals and banks need governments to provide legal enforcement, processing and penalties, without which they're toast. The whole system is on steroids, and anytime from 2008-on, can - and inevitably will, in my book - implode. A government post implosion might be able to back cents in the backing dollar, but cents in the fiat-levered-hopium one?

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 9:53am 1731358414

"You also need to notice that governments are now the slaves of both banking, and of the transnational companies. Both are soaking so much of the forward energy-expectation, that governments are increasingly left with 'not enough'. Worse, the folk they'd need to tax, are being squashed too - at whatever level they are/were. " and that's the politics playing out and to all extents undermining what 'money' is supposed to be. It is politics that has diluted what backs a fiat currency.

Ultimately on its current trajectory it has to implode PDK. the sooner it happens the less pain there will be, but it is going to happen.

by Jonny.Foe | 12th Nov 24, 8:06am 1731351983

Imagine a village that get ridiculously good at making stuff that other villages want and need. That village builds up big piles of other villages' cash, so the head of the making village shares out some of that cash with his people and gives loads to families that want to invest in getting even better at making stuff . 'What are you doing' shout the other village leaders. 'That is cheating!'

by Foxglove. | 12th Nov 24, 8:30am 1731353458

Is not the risk for the making village that the other villages will unite and overthrow the making village and avail themselves of said stuff for free. Well unless of course the making village has invested in good defences and military to safeguard itself. Either way , history sort of throws up many such examples.

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 8:34am 1731353681

You've loaded this with too many distortions that undermine the reality; eg "other villages' cash" - No, once the other villages used that 'cash' to trade it for other stuff they wanted, the cash was no longer theirs. And "the head of the making village shares out some of that cash....." So his "people" were slaves working for nothing? Or was the people of the village all sharing proportionately in the income generated from their labours? (Politics finds it's way into this scenario)

Why would the other villages accuse them of cheating rather than a) learning from them, copying them and making the same things or something different and trading, b) raiding the village stealing what they make and enslaving the people to make it for them, c) moving to the other village, joining them and working with them to make more and other things? History tends to tell these things were what really happened.

by Jonny.Foe | 12th Nov 24, 8:58am 1731355112

Jeez, it was a quick post not a serious essay! History tells us lots of things - many different scenarios can play out and eventuate. Right now, we have a country that is using many of the same strategies that the colonial powers did in the 19th century to achieve power, influence, and, critically, a ready supply of real resources for its people.

by Foxglove. | 12th Nov 24, 8:59am 1731355147

Yes, well imagine at some stage Rome was no more than a village.

by lonewolfnz | 12th Nov 24, 8:45am 1731354322

Gee its a good thing I sold my bitcoin in March for good solid companies such as (checks notes) Waste Management Ltd.

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 9:22am 1731356537

Obviously every situation is different, and risk management is always prudent. But you've been around long enough to know the next major bull cycle was absolutely coming late 2024/25. I was surprised you sold so much. Though you’ve probably done just as well or better with some other things (WM excluded).

by lonewolfnz | 12th Nov 24, 2:43pm 1731375801

Sort of.

I sold in late March this year. The exact local top almost

Many altcoins are still lower than at that point this year.

I still held 10% and that has nearly doubled.

Truth is I hit my retirement goal so the risk / reward ratio changed and I didn't want to make the mistake I made in late 2021.

Yes I have some quite ridiculous other investments - six of my stocks are beating BTC this week (GEO is up 80%).

And even Waste Management Ltd is up a nice 33% in 12 months!

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 3:24pm 1731378252

Totally fair if you hit got some long term goal numbers. Well done. And yes there’s some silly things going on. Our Tesla shares up 60% this month, that’s a far more ridiculous rise than BTC to be frank.

by General Comment | 12th Nov 24, 9:41am 1731357686

Funnily enough my Waste Management Inc shares on the NYSE are up 8% since March.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 9:51am 1731358299

Good on you LW. for posting your bad decisions as well as your good ones.

by lonewolfnz | 12th Nov 24, 3:41pm 1731379294

Yes I do remember my posting about my 'cheeky' buy of bitcoin at 13.5k in 2019 or so before it fell to 6.8k. Imagine getting in at that price now

by lonewolfnz | 12th Nov 24, 8:46am 1731354417

"and is a clunky transaction device that holders notice when they try to buy (with fiat currencies)."

Its ridiculously easy to buy and sell thanks to Easy Crypto. I used to have a cool crypto credit card as well

by J.C. | 12th Nov 24, 3:43pm 1731379398

Its ridiculously easy to buy and sell thanks to Easy Crypto.

For normies yes. But it's not a particularly good indictment that Easy Crypto is the best onboarding platform we have in Aotearoa. Fortunately my situation is that I don't have to rely on it. Used it a few times but the fees are ridiculous and the UX is a bit silly.

I do understand that they need high fees given their small volume. They made a move into S'pore where they don't really compare and compete.

by Squishy | 12th Nov 24, 8:56am 1731354965

Oil prices are -US$2.50 lower at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.

The economic kick many countries need.

by powerdownkiwi | 12th Nov 24, 9:30am 1731357023

Not so simple.

Compare it to DC's 'US growth' link - energy is going backwards.

The problem is a physics one; the global average EROEI is dropping like a stone (are exponential reverse J-curves do). Global society cannot 'afford' to 'price' needed for forward Capex. So up and down, but mostly down, from here on. The fudge is debt - increasingly more than1$, per every $ of GDP.

That is compounded by the fiat thing - and by increasing entropy (60% of our infrastructure spend - think; energy-applied - is just maintenance of existing - and that can only increase with age).

by nightstalker | 12th Nov 24, 9:50am 1731358250

Especially Russia. I read they need a price of at least $114/barrel to stem the bleeding (no pun intended!).

Cheap oil will bankrupt them faster.

by mark_a | 12th Nov 24, 5:02pm 1731384152

Good news indeed.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 10:07am 1731359229

by Squishy | 12th Nov 24, 8:56am

Oil prices are -US$2.50 lower at US$68/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is now just over US$71.50/bbl.

That doesn't reconcile well with PDK's spiel that "we're running out of natural resources", that "there are too many people competing for a finite amount of energy on earth"

by kiwimm | 12th Nov 24, 10:50am 1731361840

PDK is talking about stock and you are talking about flow

by Crazy Horse | 12th Nov 24, 9:19am 1731356384

To those who knock Bitcoin......

1. Don't realise there will ONLY ever be 21,000,000 of them

2. The US Govt are going to hold 5% of their reserves in BTC

3. It has done better than ANY investment class, I have ever invested in

4. The Blackrocks of this world are already dealing in it through ETF's

5. Has not yet seen the real effects of Metcalfe's law and it's exponential customer effects

6. The banksters hate it, because they finally have competition

7. Way easier to use now than a few years ago

8. Now sits in the middle of the "Big Seven" in market cap.

9. CAN'T BE INFLATED AWAY TO NOTHING LIKE FIAT CURRENCY

So you carry on ignoring or dissing it and I'll be quite happy selling some along the way to increase cashflow....while those who are in BTC, feel free to add to my list.

by BadRobot | 12th Nov 24, 9:40am 1731357630

....but it still relies on the legal framework provided by government's for any transaction. If that framework disappears what is crypto worth? Additionally if the US does hold crypto my expectation is the price will rise until the US government stops buying - then what? What if there is a catastrophic failure of the blockchain system ?

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 9:55am 1731358548

"the price will rise until the US government stops buying - then what" - Or what if they don't buy? Or what if the democrats get in and sell?

The smart people have probably already banked that scenario, the people who buy now because the smart people made money will probably be the fools that lose it.

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 10:03am 1731358993

I suggest if you are really interested, spend some proper time reading about Bitcoin. You'll be able to answer all those questions, and won't confuse Bitcoin with other crypto. You also will not actually believe the answers, if you don't work it out for yourself. And I'm not saying this to be condecending.

by BadRobot | 12th Nov 24, 11:57am 1731365876

Ahhh not really. The questions I ask are designed to make people wonder if what they believe is actually true - the world is full of nuances. People have a tendency toward dichotomous thinking - it makes things easy when if fact things are more complex than that. I'm sure anyone can write copious pages answering all sorts of questions to calm the nervous investor but does it make it true.

“For those who believe, no proof is necessary. For those who don't believe, no proof is possible.”

― Stuart Chase

by LASSET | 12th Nov 24, 12:25pm 1731367556

I agree with a lot of that. And in the case of bitcoin you are correct, "for those who don't believe, no proof is possible.” You can see that in this forum.

I believe, but that doesn't come from a position of faith. It comes from thousands of hours of study of the 15 years of continuing proof.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 9:40am 1731357655

You forgot 20% of crypto has vanished onto thin air. Investors have lost 100% of their money.

by Zwifter | 12th Nov 24, 10:19am 1731359959

You are not getting with the Bitcoin mentality Yvil, if 20% of it has been lost what remains must be even more valuable right ?

by Crazy Horse | 12th Nov 24, 10:24am 1731360284

Correct Zwifter ....

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 9:59am 1731358749

I agree it is probably quite a good way to make a quick buck, and I would consider investing in it. But in terms of society it is pretty awful:

Speculative - the smart and lucky people make money, the stupid lose everything
Creates massive inequality - it will significantly concentrate to the early adopters.
Aids criminal activity
Relatively fixed supply is extremely deflationary
There is a pretty big risk you will lose it all one day.

If BTC were to succeed as some kind of global currency, the world will be in a dreadful state of crime, extreme inequality, and extreme deflation, You would be crazy to ever spend money (I bet those guys that bought a pizza with it in the early days regret it), economies would be ruined.

I also disagree with some of your points, for example:

"It has done better than ANY investment class, I have ever invested in" - people probably said that about poppies and Kodak shares, if anything that is probably a bad sign for the future.

"CAN'T BE INFLATED AWAY TO NOTHING LIKE FIAT CURRENCY" - you would be stupid to use fiat as a long term store of value anyway.

"there will ONLY ever be 21,000,000 of them " - but the total quantity of Crypto is unlimited, and BTC is hardly the best coin in terms of technology. I honestly couldn't tell you how that will pan out in the long term. I wouldn't invest in gold if there was also an exact replica called a different name in unlimited supply.

by nightstalker | 12th Nov 24, 9:56am 1731358582

100% agree and would add, the next boom will be fuelled by the broligarchs which will take over the White House in Jan.

These guys will use BTC as an opportunity to get even richer but I am certain their greed will make them turn against each other.

There's no trust within agents of the next administration but trust is the foundation to everything successful, especially business.

by 21Trillion | 12th Nov 24, 10:01am 1731358863

You couldn't be any further from fact here.

Speculative - sorry, how so? There has never been a 3 year period where you've lost in Bitcoin. Speculation occurs because people with your knowledge of it get involved. I'd say NZ real estate is extreme speculation, we celebrate 22 year olds with 20x leverage buying something worth 15 years of their post tax income. What the f*** could go wrong.

Inequality - A system where anyone anywhere has equal opportunity to partake without any barrier to entry. Ethically it's better than property and stocks. You might want to explain this to the younger generation that has been screwed by property.

Aids criminal activity - fully public ledger, criminals are very sloppy to use Bitcoin. They're one slip up to everything being exposed, same goes for tax.

Risk of losing it all in one day - once again, how?

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 10:24am 1731360284

"Speculative" - people are obviously investing in it in the hope that they will make a speculative gain. If it was a genuine store of value (wasn't increasing in value) then hardly anyone would bother.

"A system where anyone anywhere has equal opportunity to partake" - but not at the same price. I can't buy a BTC at the same price that someone else did 5 years ago.

"Risk of losing it all in one day" - well you may keep your bitcoin, its just that it may be worthless. It is fairly simple for someone to make an exact replica of the currency in every possible way, so all you are investing in is the name and the fact it was the first cyrpto. I guess you could argue the same about art where people can make a replica, but with most other valuable assets it is not possible to make a very cheap replica that is exactly the same.

by LeeC | 12th Nov 24, 10:41am 1731361273

"A system where anyone anywhere has equal opportunity to partake" - but not at the same price. I can't buy a BTC at the same price that someone else did 5 years ago.

well they did 5 years ago 😂 you’re a silly sausage

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 11:05am 1731362739

Sorry I was being silly, we will all become rich from using a fixed supply digital currency, no one will miss out, there will be no inequality.

by 21Trillion | 12th Nov 24, 11:18am 1731363483

Jimbo it's best you don't spout opinions where you're clueless.

Bitcoin isn't the brand you're investing in. It's the billions of dollars of network security backing the Bitcoin Blockchain, the same reason it can't be taken down, hacked or killed off. It's pure capitalism.

Also I can't tell if your inequality point is a joke or not. Because you chose to not buy Bitcoin 5 years ago, does not mean you're disadvantaged. You can buy $5 of Bitcoin regardless if 1 Bitcoin is $10 or $10m. It's endlessly divisible. I'm bringing this up because I'm assuming you think that you have to buy or have 1.0 BTC, which is incorrect.

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Nov 24, 11:17am 1731363450

"1. Don't realise there will ONLY ever be 21,000,000 of them "

That may be true of Bitcoin (note the capital "B"). But Bitcoin is now but one of many crypto-currencies. And the supply of some of those can be extended beyond their existing limits.

"As of June 2023, there were more than 25,000 other cryptocurrencies in the marketplace, of which more than 40 had a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion.^[9]" (source link)

Take care people. (No body listens to me so I expect many won't take care. C'est la vie.)

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Nov 24, 11:22am 1731363733

btw, There is a lot of posting being done on social media about how wonderful bitcoins are. And quite a bit of it is being done by "bot armies". One wonders how much longer some of these cryptocurrencies can survive.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 9:41am 1731357683

Humans have 5 senses to assess everything in life. Anything that is real, can be either seen, heard, touched, smelled or tasted. Anything else is made up stuff, like religion, astrology and crypto.

by General Comment | 12th Nov 24, 9:46am 1731357999

Are thoughts not real?

(Schrodinger is preparing his cat and box...)

by powerdownkiwi | 12th Nov 24, 9:45am 1731357946

You forgot money - in whatever form.

It may be real, as in coins. It is not real, if you pull up at the supermarket and there's nothing on the shelves; it is not real if you turn up at the pump and there's no fuel in the underground tanks.

Money is a forward bet - on the assumption that the future can supply real stuff. It is not real in itself.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 9:54am 1731358489

Wrong, (As you like to tell others). You can see and touch your Fiat currency.

by Baywatch | 12th Nov 24, 9:48am 1731358139

And your mobile phone clutching it sweaty

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 10:01am 1731358884

Indeed, as I'm at the gym. How did you know?

by Baywatch | 12th Nov 24, 10:28am 1731360481

Let me guess your on a treadmill ...

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 11:34am 1731364460

Nope, I play tennis for cardio, I do weights at the gym. Thanks for your interest.

by Baywatch | 12th Nov 24, 12:44pm 1731368694

We are all on a treadmill Yvil...

by Zwifter | 12th Nov 24, 3:20pm 1731378057

Some of us got off it 10 years ago but on reflection I never got on it so probably doesn't count.

by 21Trillion | 12th Nov 24, 10:01am 1731358912

I can't smell, touch or taste Netflix, but I can touch smell and taste VHS.

by Yvil | 12th Nov 24, 10:13am 1731359628

But you can watch (see) them both.

by Zwifter | 12th Nov 24, 10:21am 1731360093

True, Porn was so much better on VHS.

by interesting1234 | 12th Nov 24, 2:47pm 1731376021

Quagmire from Family Guy would disagree

by kiwimm | 12th Nov 24, 10:55am 1731362112

Betamax tasted much better

by LeeC | 12th Nov 24, 9:57am 1731358624

The reality is Bitcoin increases in its value on average by over 100% per year despite its volatility and fiat debases every year depending on the level of money printing that goes on. Seems like a good store of value to me

by JimboJones | 12th Nov 24, 11:10am 1731363013

I'll correct you - "Seemed like a good store of value to me" (you are basing your argument off the past, there is no guarantee that Bitcoin will increase its value)

by ChrisOfNoFame | 12th Nov 24, 11:30am 1731364200

"The reality is Bitcoin increases in its value on average by over 100% per year"

That's an interesting fact.

But the question behind that fact that is even more interesting. The question is ...

Where is the supply of fiat money coming from to support that increase in value?

Once you figure out the answer to that question ... you'll be able to see how this will end.

And perhaps most importantly ... Who the 'winners' are when it does.

by interesting1234 | 12th Nov 24, 2:49pm 1731376197

Many see it, but they have such little scope of influence in the world that they know they can't influence the inevitable outcome. Their options are either to play the game like most do, and try be a 'winner', or educate, innovate, build a life for themselves and be thankful for the opportunities they have, making at least some preparations for old age and possible shocks.

by 21Trillion | 12th Nov 24, 10:04am 1731359085

Both this article and comment section are showing how out of touch and bias this site is on Bitcoin.

Lots of very low educated comments being made.

It's one of those situations where the loudest ones are those who know the least, not surprising though. The same experts on property seem to be experts on Bitcoin but are being proven wrong year on year and will continue to be proved wrong.

David, since when was Blackrock, Fidelity and the US govt "crypto bros".

by murray86 | 12th Nov 24, 10:09am 1731359347

Can I commend everyone to read Jason Stanley's article elsewhere on the site? Worth a read.

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/130702/jason-stanley-observes-…;

by mark_a | 12th Nov 24, 10:43am 1731361384

I dont know how China works its way around the horrendous debt associated with a building boom of properties where there is no prospect of anybody living in them - ever.

And I don’t trust their building standards so once all the concrete starts crumbling it will just get worse and worse…..

by Hypno | 12th Nov 24, 11:08am 1731362912

If you believe what read here every day in here and MSM, sure you would not trust the standards and think they are going to collapse. The skeptic should go make a visit to china and see or observe the advances they are making. Chinese citizens get housing oversupplies with CPI at 0.4, soemthing NZ has been unable to achieve. As far as quality goes, in a big country, it is easy to find a failed project and report on it, the reality on the ground is that hundred of millions, even those in third tier cities enjoy life in brand new affordable apartments, with features at prices we can only dream of.

by mark_a | 12th Nov 24, 11:32am 1731364345

So those ~ fifty million homes will be occupied - over what time frame do you reckon?

by Hypno | 12th Nov 24, 1:54pm 1731372849

nope, that is the pros of an oversupply, the old being replaced with new, cheaper rents, healthier living conditions and better urban planning. Millions are also bought out buy the goverment to tear down old housing.

by mark_a | 12th Nov 24, 5:05pm 1731384338

Good stuff then. Enjoy.

by LeeC | 12th Nov 24, 11:05am 1731362711

Bitcoin just flipped the market cap of silver

by 21Trillion | 12th Nov 24, 11:14am 1731363250

Careful Lee, it's just those crypto bros speculating lmfao

by LeeC | 12th Nov 24, 11:28am 1731364088

Larry fink just bought his yello lambo 😂