Population growth from migration at 11-year low excluding travel restricted Covid years

Economy / news

Record numbers of New Zealanders moving overseas keeping a lid on net migration gains

13th Dec 24, 12:04pm by Greg Ninness

Population growth from migration sank to an 11 year low in the October year, excluding Covid hit years.

According to Statistics NZ, there was a net gain, long term arrivals minus long term departures, of 38,776 people in the 12 months to the end of October. (See the chart below for the rolling annual trend).

That was down 71% compared to the 12 months to October last year when there was a net gain of 135,776. It was the lowest net gain outside of the travel restricted years of 2021 and 2022, since 2013.

Ironically, the number of people migrating to New Zealand remains high, but their impact on population growth has been dramatically reduced by an even bigger surge in the number of people leaving long term.

In the 12 months to October there were 169,871 long term arrivals. That was the second highest number of arrivals since Statistics NZ began collating the figures in their current format in 2002, behind the record 235,148 in the 12 months to October last year.

Those arrivals were partially offset by the 131,094 people who left the country long term in the 12 months to October this year. That's the highest number since this data series began in 2002, and was up 32% compared to the previous 12 months.

The majority of people leaving long term are New Zealand citizens, while the majority of arrivals are citizens of other countries.

The 12 months to October this year saw a net loss of 52,951 New Zealand citizens, and a net gain of 91,728 citizens of other countries.

The biggest source countries for migrant arrivals in the year to October were India 25,097, China 16,324, Australia 15,269, the Philippines 13,777, UK 6490, Fiji 5934, USA 4891, South Africa 4816 and Sri Lanka 4805.

The comment stream on this article is now closed.

Net long term migration

Select chart tabs

Source: Statistics NZ

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

144 Comments

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 12:06pm 1734044806

Both good and bad for NZ

by Greeneggsandham | 13th Dec 24, 12:12pm 1734045140

It’s not good for the housing market if the potential buyers are leaving.

by HughJorgan | 13th Dec 24, 12:18pm 1734045489

Hate to break it to you but that’s the good part.

As a home owner I don’t care. As a father I want prices to come down to an affordable level for future generations.

by singautim | 13th Dec 24, 12:52pm 1734047559

Agreed. My wife and I have a big house; our three daughters rent in Auckland and our son is renting in Australia. When I was their age doing similar or lower status jobs I was able to buy.

by Retired-Poppy | 13th Dec 24, 3:04pm 1734055450

As a home owner I don’t care. As a father I want prices to come down to an affordable level for future generations.

I couldn't have worded that better! I certainly hope they keep falling, but not at an economy destroying crash pace. The status quo for the next 10-15 years would be ideal.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 12:20pm 1734045606

It’s good for our overstretched health, education and transport infrastructure. It’s also another thing that will keep rental inflation down

It’s bad that we are losing so many skilled kiwis, often because of the cost of living (relative to wages)

In addition to my excellent young Gp heading to Aus a few months ago, some close friends - a teacher and nurse along with their very young son - are making the move in early January

by Murray Falconer | 13th Dec 24, 1:07pm 1734048453

It’s good for our overstretched health, education and transport infrastructure.

More people (we're still growing population) are bad for these are they not?

Furthermore, swap-a-person is 'extra bad' for health and education due to the added costs incurred when English is a second language.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:10pm 1734048622

It’s good because the net numbers are way down

by Murray Falconer | 13th Dec 24, 2:51pm 1734054716

Fair enough, I'll give you your silver lining!

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 4:47pm 1734061620

Not if it's due to young skilled graduates, doctors and nurses you're losing overseas.

by macca | 13th Dec 24, 2:24pm 1734053088

NZ has only 2 strings to its economic bow - agriculture (80%) and tourism (10%). Oz agriculture is 5%, mining & related 50%. The only economic (higher wages and more taxes for govt) hope for NZ is mining/minerals/oil/gas etc. Drill baby drill or the smart, hard working, educated, ambitious will all leave to join the 1 million NZers (600k in Oz alone) already living overseas.

by interesting1234 | 13th Dec 24, 4:28pm 1734060504

It’s good for our overstretched health, education and transport infrastructure.

Interesting quandry that one, as many coming here will eventually want their families and siblings to come too, so is it good long term? I'd need to see the stats but it is one to ponder.

by Dgm | 13th Dec 24, 1:14pm 1734048840

Feb 2025 net migration will be 0.. fun and games for the housing market

by keithwoodford | 13th Dec 24, 12:19pm 1734045560

These are remarkable numbers.

The inwards numbers should be reliable although the number who will subsequently decide to stay as permanents is unclear.

The outwards numbers can only be a broad estimate, because departees do no have to state whether they are short or long-term departees. I therefore use the term 'broad estimate' as a polite term for 'guess' based on assumptions that historical behaviours of departees are a guide as to what current departees intend to do.

KeithW

by False economies | 13th Dec 24, 3:10pm 1734055814

Welcome back Keith! (Might have missed other comments though)

Any articles in the offing?

by keithwoodford | 13th Dec 24, 4:10pm 1734059449

Yes, I hope to be very soon back to writing articles.

There is lots to write about.

My health is currently on an up-curve after lots of chemo.

KeithW

by tis i | 14th Dec 24, 8:03am 1734116636

Excellent!

by Qupi | 13th Dec 24, 12:20pm 1734045642

It would be good to have a chart of emigration vs immigration instead of net. We can still have net zero but kiwis are being replaced with people who don't necessarily share our values and have an affinity for their own people. And if we're being honest about the quality of people we're talking about doctors and nurses leaving and fake students coming in.

by Chaosinflesh | 13th Dec 24, 12:36pm 1734046600

I'd be interested to know some demographics of those leaving long term. As a family, it was hideously expensive, which is why I often comment that "not everyone can afford to leave".

There's a big difference between a mobile twenty-something person/couple emigrating and an established family upping sticks.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 12:42pm 1734046976

Quite often quite generous relocation packages are provided. I got that when I moved to Aus back in 2010

Can you still withdraw KiwiSaver if you move to Aus? i could in 2010

by Chaosinflesh | 13th Dec 24, 1:01pm 1734048082

That's true. Dunno about Kiwisaver though - am looking at transferring mine but only a few schemes accept transfers.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:21pm 1734049270

I was able to cash it out. Maybe the policy has changed

by Pragmatist | 13th Dec 24, 5:48pm 1734065339

Can't cash it out if you move to Oz, you can leave it here or transfer it to one of the Ozzie super schemes. Have to go somewhere that's not Oz for >1year to cash it out.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:12pm 1734048764

FB analytics of the Kiwis Moving to Australia Facebook group (currently 44,000 members) shows that group participants ages are as follows:

10% 18-24

40% 25-34

30% 35-44

12% 45-44

4% 55-64

2% 65+

Its not just kids leaving for a gap year. The most common questions on the group revolve around children (schools, childcare, vaccination records) followed by buying/selling houses.

by OldSkoolEconomics | 14th Dec 24, 6:20am 1734110420

25 to 45.... I suspect mainly high skilled. The people we need most.

Better career prospects, affordable housing and better education/public housing.

Nz has a very serious issue. Will take some time to resolve.. will need to start with the demolition of the housing market as an investment option.

by Give me a break | 13th Dec 24, 12:34pm 1734046440

Next year is going to be the same. Many professional friends, nurses, lawyers, builders have left this year and/or preparing to leave in 2025. They cant stomach the future this bunch of 'I'm Sorted' polies have dished up.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 12:35pm 1734046554

Where are they off to, and what are their polies dishing up?

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 12:45pm 1734047149

You’re all good aren’t you Jimbo, so nothing to see. My understanding is you bought a house when prices weren’t absurd, back in 2006?

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 12:56pm 1734047792

I'm (genuinely) wondering what other countries are doing better than NZ? We keep hearing that people are leaving because our government (red or blue) are doing a bad job, so what are the other countries doing better?

To me it seems that Aus for example has all the same issues as NZ, such as high cost of living and high house prices. The only advantage is that they have higher wages, probably due to their bigger population, mining exports, and they are closer to the rest of the world. I doubt we can match their mining or location, maybe we need to go on a rapid population increase to 25 million?

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:01pm 1734048079

Many working in the public sector get superannuation contributions of 10-12%. Compare that to 3% here, and that’s voluntary.

That is a public policy decision. Something similar could be done here.

It’s also a public policy decision to pay staff working in healthcare significantly more.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 1:08pm 1734048506

Now we are getting somewhere. So we should:

Increase Kiwisaver to 12%
Increase healthcare pay
Increase tax to pay for increased healthcare pay

I'd be reasonably happy with those. But will it have side effects? Can businesses afford 12% super? Are all the people leaving in healthcare?

I'm not convinced we can get out of this problem by paying more. If so we may as well increase pay to infinity and we can all be rich. Don't we need some kind of productivity boost?

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:17pm 1734049031

I said PUBLIC sector often pays 10-12% super.

It’s a public policy choice. If we had a capital gains tax and/or land tax, and were a bit less wasteful with spending, we could easily afford these sorts of things.

Australia has been much more clever and strategic in its public policy approaches. They didn’t swallow the neoliberal kool aid like NZ did

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 2:22pm 1734052979

Fair enough. But that would only stop people that work for the public sector leaving. It wouldn't have changed anything for all the people I know that have left. And do people want to pay more tax so the public sector gets 12% while the private sector gets 3% - I doubt it.

Here are the steps I think we need to get a bit closer to Aus living standards (but I suspect it will all come out in the wash with more tax to pay for it):

Reduce food cost. Match Australia: "Australia doesn't charge GST on meat, fish, produce, cheese and eggs, plain milk and cream, bread and spreads, bottled water, tea and coffee, cooking ingredients and oils, or infant formula". Not sure how to pay for it.
Reduce petrol cost. Personally I don't like this idea for a number of reasons, but it may stop people leaving.
Reduce housing cost. Not sure how though. As you have said some kind of shared equity. But this more of a long term game.
Increase Kiwisaver. Their employers pay 11.5%, ours pay 3%, we need to slowly get closer to them (although 11.5% is too high IMO).
And with these costs decreased, we can afford a very rapid decrease in the OCR to revive the economy.

To be honest I actually don't like many of those steps, its just using general tax to subsidise unhealthy consumption. But people aren't smart enough to see it that way, they want cheap GST free food and cheap petrol via "free" roads just like they have in Aus, so maybe we need to just do it.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:18pm 1734049139

The Australian Labor party isnt intent on turning Australia into a separatist, racist, ethno state where access to public services like health and education is divvied up according to race. Most of us leaving don't want to live in the new South Africa. Best to get out before the farm murders start.

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 1:52pm 1734051159

Bugger just when I thought you were heading that way - unpacking the bags now ah? Which country is this Utopia you seek?

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 4:51pm 1734061879

Pretty sure Kiwis are still treated like second class citizens.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 5:47pm 1734065238

Four years to get citizenship then you have equal rights. Unlike NZ, where you can be born and live here your whole life and still not have them.

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 1:48pm 1734050939

Having been to Europe this year - one of the first things I noticed in major cities for enjoyment of life was getting around easily and cheaply.

Meet friends, eat out late, plenty of options plus relatively safe - you don't think about hmmm how will I get from A-B today -- better leave 2 hours earlier.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:52pm 1734051176

And Asia. Shanghai and Beijing in May - amazing subway network. Most trips 40-50 cents

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 1:56pm 1734051381

They must be very vein to have all those vanity projects

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 2:01pm 1734051716

Exactly - 15min train from Int Airport to Barcelona Central ...who do they think they are?

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:53pm 1734054827

I just spent 2 weeks driving around the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, and Gold Coast. Driving over there was a pleasure compared to NZ. No ridiculously low 30kmph speed limits on suburban streets, no stupid speed humps on every intersection/pedestrian crossing/random places, everyone travelled at the 110 kmph speed limit (including trucks, caravans and those towing), 80 kmph speed limit through road works .....

I had heard traffic was supposed to be bad in Queensland but the complainers clearly hadnt been to NZ lately. Except a friend of mine from Melbourne who said that driving in NZ was horrible due to the low speed limits, the fact they constantly change every five minutes, and that you have to spend more time watching your speedo than you do the road.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 3:06pm 1734055613

As someone who has kids and actually gets off my arse and walks around a bit, I am very thankful for our "ridiculously low" speed limits. Those 60km/hr arterials they have over there are horrible places, I couldn't imagine living near one.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 5:45pm 1734065121

Here's an idea. Try walking on the footpaths, instead of the roads. Traffic on the road should not be a problem at any speed if you dont let your kids run on the road. People without children (or responsible ones with children) shouldnt be incovenienced because others cant be bothered actually doing any parenting.

by Colin Cameron | 13th Dec 24, 1:59pm 1734051548

Obviously 16k Aussies can those are the ones who immgrated here

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:16pm 1734052588

Probably the families of all the 501 deportees.

by Chaosinflesh | 13th Dec 24, 12:40pm 1734046833

Er.. 53k is not the majority of 131k? Or am I missing something?

by Getting it right. | 13th Dec 24, 1:33pm 1734050025

Citizen departures were about 77k (citizen arrivals about 25k so about net 53k). 77k is the majority of 131k.

Non citizen arrivals at about 147k were the majority of arrivals. See Stats NZ website for details.

by Greg Ninness | 13th Dec 24, 1:41pm 1734050506

Hi Chaos, the 131,000 is the total number of people (NZ citizens and non-NZ citizens) who left the country long term. The 53,000 figures is the net loss of NZ citizens only. They are measuring different things.

by Chaosinflesh | 13th Dec 24, 2:48pm 1734054501

Aha.. see I knew I'd missed something! Thanks :)

by JohnnyMnemonic | 13th Dec 24, 12:44pm 1734047058

If the Treaty principles don't pass at minimum I'm going to try for Asylum to the US and I am sure many will leave NZ for Oz as an easier option.

by Greg Ninness | 13th Dec 24, 1:44pm 1734050676

Well you might as well start packing now Johnny, because the Bill was dead in the water before it even made it into the House.

by E46 | 13th Dec 24, 2:16pm 1734052582

Asylum seeker JohnnyMnemonic, facing hardships worse than those from Syria or Afghanistan.

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 4:53pm 1734062010

Better hurry mate I hear that Southern Border is tightening up Jan 20

by kiwi_overseas | 13th Dec 24, 12:54pm 1734047658

ABSURD.

The 131,094 people who left the country long term in the 12 months to October this year. That's the highest number since this data series began in 2002, and was up 32% compared to the previous 12 months.

Massive bite of no-confidence in the current govt. They need to go.

by JohnnyMnemonic | 13th Dec 24, 12:57pm 1734047854

Many are leaving because of wages and affordability, they would have already decided under the past gov to leave, you know, the one that clocked up significant debt, and divided the country, which is the other reason I think many are leaving, people are sick of liberal woke leftists and the whole Maori issue, been treated as second class citizens.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 1:02pm 1734048140

So they hung around for 6 years of Labour then decided to leave after 1 year of their Blue team were elected?

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:25pm 1734049544

Well, you know they werent allowed to leave the country for several years right? Or were you living under a rock from 2020 to 2023? Plans to leave are made many months or years in advance - it takes that long to get your situation sorted. I'm still busy trying to declutter and get houses ready to sell.

Secondly, its only been since July 2023 that Kiwis were eligible to acquire Australian citizenship. This has been a game changer, and allowed those with dependents to take the risk of moving as they only have to fund themselves for 4 years now instead of indefinitely.

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 24, 1:47pm 1734050837

Weren't allowed to leave the country for several years? Can I have some of whatever you're smoking please?

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 1:55pm 1734051301

KW is on the sauce today ...ironing his white smok as we talk..

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:59pm 1734051545

What are you smoking? Have you forgotten that NZ and Australian borders were basically closed for three years? Flights to anywhere were extremely limited. I had a friend who had to get to a job in Australia - he had to fly to Singapore, then Perth, do quarantine for 2 weeks, then fly to Queensland where he had to do another 2 weeks quarantine. It cost him close to $50k to do that. Now that borders are open again, flights have resumed and quarantine is a thing of the past, people are leaving again.

I swear, it appears Covid has destroyed some people's brain cells to the point they have cognitive dementia these days.

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 1:59pm 1734051587

Have you just come out of quarantine KW..your a couple of years out of date? (Dementia)?

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:12pm 1734052349

The poster asked why all these people didnt leave during the 6 years of Labour. Its because for the latter half of it they couldnt. Its only been 2 years since the NZ border reopened - which is why so many people have left in the last 12 months.

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 24, 2:23pm 1734052991

18 months of closed borders is not several years.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:44pm 1734054264

Australian borders closed in March 2020 and reopened end of February 2022. NZ borders didnt open fully until July 2022. So by my count that was 2 years. Plus the time taken for international flights to resume as they didnt suddenly start flying overnight as soon as the Govt announced things.

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 2:53pm 1734054789

Stop digging it's embarrassing

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 24, 3:50pm 1734058218

What about the Trans-Tasman bubble in 2021?

New Zealand borders were partially reopened in early 2022. Fully vaccinated travelers from certain countries were allowed in May 2022, and full reopening happened in July 2022.

So not "several years" as you make it out to be. But hey, you do hyperbole well.

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 2:52pm 1734054724

exactly why we left to AU + weather (but that 's minor compared to overall state of things) . Adern was absolute nightmare, and I literately started to be afraid to live in the country with her supporters, as if they were just blind by the woke propaganda. Lots of them still are. Not to say that AU does not have all those issues - but at least I can see people are openly criticising those lefties , we still here have lot's of aboriginal namings of cities/train stations and there are signs of some pressures to "admire the traditional custodians culture" even though everyone can easily spot everyday behaviour of those "traditional custodians" in public places/transport etc which is very antisocial. However, there is no tangible pressure lets say at schools and kindies to learn their language and actually take their culture as yours etc etc. Back 2 years ago I had firm feeling NZ is turning in new South Africa and we left. We made a trip to AU prior and I had to make informed decision that AU was not and is not cheaper at all (those who think so just have problems with basic math), maybe even more expensive , and my salary is relatively the same. But I just feel a bit more confident to live among the people who is a bit open to criticize their government and their ideologies

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 4:23pm 1734060220

Thank you for leaving.

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 24, 4:29pm 1734060584

Judging by the lack of paragraphs and orphaned spaces, he took his typographical negligence with him.

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 8:16pm 1734074181

any constructive things to mention in response? If no , then you are welcome . Stay safe and don't forget your 3rd booster.

G'night.

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 8:20pm 1734074440

... and it is actually paragraphed quite nicely - in 1 paragraph.

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 8:25pm 1734074703

you are welcome , hope you've said the same to that 1/3rd of the company you are working for. Now you have 1/3rd more of disposable drinks and rosy caaakes at your favourite Pride events.

by Millennial_Woman | 14th Dec 24, 11:45pm 1734173142

Treated like second class citizens .... you mean with better health, education and economic outcomes?! Being a second class citizen sounds great.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:02pm 1734048157

It’s only partly because of the current mob. The current mob have certainly exacerbated things

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 1:14pm 1734048843

In reality the number of people that leave the country due to politics would be tiny. People are leaving because they are getting much better pay offers in Australia. Australia's economy is growing, ours is shrinking.

by kiwi_overseas | 13th Dec 24, 3:51pm 1734058271

Exactly.

The govt’s own policy settings have screwed the economy down so hard that we have falling real gdp/capita and the highest outbound emigration of Kiwis.

(Those coming in are generally coming from areas with lower gdp/capita than NZ)

NZ is turning into a banana republic run by an incompetent govt.

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 5:07pm 1734062859

Someone, and I don't want to name parties here, ran a record easy money giveaway while they were in power, jacking up the national debt (and house prices) at a never before seen rate and someone else has to deal with the bloody hangover.

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 4:28pm 1734060530

In reality the number of people that leave the country due to politics would be tiny

Absolute bollocks. The politics of a country is one of the prime decisions when people leave a country. If they have no faith the political leadership is taking the country in the right direction and you can leave you leave. If you have faith the country is going to get better or shall we say 'back on track' you stay.

It would be great if they interviewed departees why they were leaving. Our firm has lost a third of our staff, all young engineers/data scientists/planners recently. They are going overseas because they do not believe the government is going in the right direction. They have moved to Europe, Canada, US and UK.

by CN - new | 13th Dec 24, 5:59pm 1734065952

"Australia's economy is growing, ours is shrinking."

Australia is currently experiencing a per capita recession.

by Murray Falconer | 13th Dec 24, 1:16pm 1734048968

no-confidence in the current govt

I think this has been decades in the making. I agree it is absurd, but there isn't a party in parliament that would do significantly better in my view.

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 5:05pm 1734062731

Bingo. Red label Coke versus blue label Pepsi.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:22pm 1734049331

Its not the current Govt. Its the general long term trend of this country. Eventually the Labour/Greens/TPM coalition will be voted in, and it will be best to be long gone by then.

by Baywatch | 13th Dec 24, 2:11pm 1734052276

Its not the current Govt .its the bloody wind

by Matt_B | 13th Dec 24, 2:51pm 1734054671

The NZ Citizen departure trend started when the border opened post COVID

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 4:33pm 1734060825

Which is when the horrendous culture war narrative that the coalition started peddling began and they started campaigning on landlord tax cuts, repealing Labour's great housing laws and trying to reinflate the housing ponzi... coincidence I guess.

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 5:03pm 1734062586

Massive bite of no-confidence in the current govt. They need to go.

Wouldn't be a problem facing the nation today if Jacinda and the last lot hadn't destroyed public trust and confidence at a record rate straight after receiving a record MMP electoral mandate in 2020.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:04pm 1734048252

Those immigrants will soon be leaving as soon as

- the 211,000 immigrants gifted permanent residency in 2021 convert to NZ citizenship and are free to depart for Australia.

- they hook up with a NZ citizen and get to move to Australia on a 461 visa (partner of a NZ citizen). This is a very popular option according to my Moving to Australia FB group.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:13pm 1734048801

Yep.

Our Indian neighbours, who are healthcare technicians, are off to Aus shortly.

They recently converted to NZ citizenship

The guy’s parents have also been here, taking advantage of our ‘generous’ system of allowing them free healthcare etc

Nice people though

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 1:28pm 1734049733

Don't blame the players, blame the game.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:56pm 1734051389

Correct. And that’s what I an doing. This country and its government is often idiotic

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 2:13pm 1734052433

And just like sport, everyone blames the coach and management team. They sack them, and it doesn't help.

The real problem is that we aren't good enough to compete with Aus economically, and we probably never will be, regardless of who is the coach.

by Nzdan | 13th Dec 24, 1:33pm 1734049992

Sounds like the anecdotes of elderly Chinese grandparents pushing prams around Flat Bush. The children first migrate here, buy a house, start a family, bring the parents over and when the affairs are sorted disappear back to China to earn the real money leaving the Grandparents/Children to enjoy our services.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 1:57pm 1734051454

Correct. What a rort

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 8:44pm 1734075872

Incorrect, they payed taxes for those services in advance , so not "your services"

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 8:59pm 1734076773

Please elaborate.

If a couple came here in say 2018, and their elderly parents came in 2022, how have the elderly parents‘’payed’ taxes in advance in NZ?

please explain

by K.W. | 14th Dec 24, 9:44am 1734122644

A few years ago the Australian Govt did a research report into the cost of each type of immigrant. They found that an elderly parent on a family reunification visa cost the Govt around $450k in welfare (healthcare, social services, pension etc). There is ZERO chance that an immigrant pays enough tax to cover themselves and their parents. It should be stopped. If you want to live with your parents, go home.

by Murray Falconer | 13th Dec 24, 3:05pm 1734055540

Recall when the parent visa category actually got closed for a while?

Your statement was so true even our pro-immigration government(s) were forced into action!

by Blackbeard | 13th Dec 24, 1:36pm 1734050178

Four of my close friends have gone, they said the cost of living, housing in NZ is absurd and NZ will never be a wealthy country, the citizens will always be struggling, not a future for their families.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 2:06pm 1734052004

Something I really struggle with is the large numbers of people who think it’s just wonderful here. Well, it generally is if you bought a home more than 10 years ago. And these people are too dumb to understand what our country will become without some radical policy shifts.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 2:31pm 1734053493

" And these people are too dumb to understand what our country will become without some radical policy shifts" - I am not sure that is entirely true. Many people are quite supportive of more housing being built. Look at the Auckland unitary plan for example, many cities would struggle to get something like that through due to NIMBYs.

The thing is that there are no "radical policy shifts" that will fix the housing issue. There are lots of little things that can help, but the big change (allowing houses to be built) is mostly already done. Its just a pity it wasn't done sooner, before build costs went crazy worldwide.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 2:50pm 1734054659

Nope. Many kiwis are self centred and small minded. And short termist.

And your comment on the Unitary Plan is way off track. That was pushed through by the Key government, with limited ability for the public to push back. Not saying it was a bad outcome - quite the reverse - but it had nothing to do with the public accepting lots of higher density zoning.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 3:26pm 1734056783

by HouseMouse | 23rd Oct 21, 11:21am

Well, I think you will be surprised then.

The National Policy Statement - Urban Development sets a very high bar for continuing to use special character protection rather than intensifying with higher density development.

What I've heard is that the number or properties in places like Auckland and Wellington with special character protection is likely to be less than half of current numbers.

Once special character rules are taken off these properties, then sections that previously had trouble adding small additions to one house will be able to build several townhouses with no character protection. 3 townhouses will be able to be built with no resource consent, provided you comply with the very liberal new development rules.

That's why I've said constantly that all these changes are only going to push land values, and median house prices, up. Especially in the shorter term.

by HouseMouse | 13th Dec 24, 2:56pm 1734054992

Yes lots of little things could help, and collectively they could help quite a lot.

I highly recommend this book, it talks about all the many policy initiatives that are required. There’s a lot, and requires a concerted effort, but I believe it’s possible:

https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/1642831336?ref_=mr_referred_us_au_nz

by Murray Falconer | 13th Dec 24, 3:14pm 1734056066

but the big change (allowing houses to be built) is mostly already done

Disagree, the big simple change is to stop immigration in anything like the numbers we have been doing for decades. Hell of a lot easier to stop someone getting on a plane than to build a house and related infrastructure. Stop private firms selling PR, start charging 50k for a 12mth work visa to anyone that can't find the staff they want locally. Job pretty much done.

You're only talking about the supply side (which I agree we should try and improve too).

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 3:37pm 1734057467

Agree, demand could be part of the answer. But I suspect people may not be happy with the significant reduction in economic activity without population growth.

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:07pm 1734052051

And the NZ Left's definition of "wealthy" for the purposes of confiscating it via wealth taxes is extraordinarily low. Meanwhile in Australia, the Labor Govt just had to cancel the tax on superfunds with more than $3M of assets - as this was deemed to be a middle class tax grab.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 2:15pm 1734052550

I don't think it is the wealthy that are leaving...

Aus top tax rate is 45%

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 2:21pm 1734052892

Thats why you purchase all your investments through a self managed superfund. Income tax rate of 15%, capital gains tax of 10%. Everything becomes tax free once you turn 60.

Plus everyone on that kind of income salary sacrifices, or buys an investment property and negative gears it. Unlike NZ, there are multiple ways of minimising the tax you pay. Its better to pay 45% in tax and get half of it back, then it is to pay 39% and get none of it back.

by JimboJones | 13th Dec 24, 2:33pm 1734053610

Why not just lower the income tax rates and get rid of all that hassle to claim it back?

by K.W. | 13th Dec 24, 3:06pm 1734055578

Because the financial sector (and all the downstream industries) in Australia is massive - what would be the incentive to take a new car lease, buy an investment property, get franking credits, salary sacrifice into super, or set up a self managed super fund?

One of my favourite tax policies in Australia is that franking credits of company tax paid is returned to shareholders in cash. So if you own shares through a self managed super fund, are over 60 years of age, then you get the dividend amount PLUS the franking credit paid to you - all tax free. Labor also tried to eliminate that and failed. Aussies love their tax minimisation strategies. Any attempt to remove them or simplify things is met with strong electoral resistance.

by MikeM | 13th Dec 24, 2:09pm 1734052198

Swapping out the good for the not so good. That's not good.

We need less unskilled let in and more high skilled incentivised not to leave.

by The Rogue Pirate | 13th Dec 24, 2:14pm 1734052466

NZ is well and truly stuffed. But at least there are plenty of Chinese and Indians to import.

by VeteranGolfer | 13th Dec 24, 2:35pm 1734053744

And import them in their hundreds of thousands we will.

An Uber on every corner, a vape shop and barbers on every street.

by macca | 13th Dec 24, 2:22pm 1734052968

by MikeM | 14th Dec 24, 7:45am 1734115529

You forgot to add property price euphoria and importing people. Can't go wrong with that recipe.

by Nzdan | 14th Dec 24, 8:10am 1734117019

People lambaste the Government for the amount of debt they rack up, it's not a dissimilar amount the private sector has racked up on mortgage debt over the same timeframe.

by safeashouses | 13th Dec 24, 2:55pm 1734054911

I am in Sydney at the moment - cant wait to come back to NZ - this place sucks

by pigeonbox | 13th Dec 24, 3:27pm 1734056870

I'm in Cebu and can appreciate this sentiment.

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 5:18pm 1734063516

Filipinos regard it as one of the best places to holiday...what's wrong

by pigeonbox | 13th Dec 24, 6:50pm 1734069058

El Nido was amazing, but I'm struggling to understand the appeal of Cebu. It's basically Manila-light without anything really interesting like Intramuros.

by Dick Mammoth | 13th Dec 24, 7:57pm 1734073071

Yes Cebu is crowded and polluted but it is a good gateway to the rest of the country and once out of the city the provinces are good esp Bantayan island etc Plus the living is cheap

by DMC45 | 14th Dec 24, 6:07pm 1734152842

The province yes, not the city....

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 4:41pm 1734061272

by KiwiinSpain | 13th Dec 24, 4:34pm 1734060859

We left NZ just over 3 years ago. AKL airport was a ghost town and the Singapore Airlines flight had.....drum roll......14 passengers 😂. The COVID Government response, regardless of your pro or against stance, played a big part. It's all history now of-course and folk will agitate over today's tit-bits; Seymour or the Ferry debacle or what ever else is fly-by-night noise bites. Many leaving now will have thought long and hard over several years. Australia is super attractive even if NZ will always remain one of the worlds most incredible landscapes. The access to citizenship after 4 years is a major draw card.

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 4:40pm 1734061219

The COVID Government response, regardless of your pro or against stance, played a big part.

Do you mean Labour were not strict enough? My parents live in Spain. The Spanish govt's COVID response was next level. You were not allowed to leave your flat, even to let your kids play on the street. The only way to leave your house was if you had a dog , you could take it for a walk withing a couple of 100m distance from your flat for a shit. People were renting their dogs out until the police clocked on and started fining people.

I preferred the less strict New Zealand approach ...

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 5:10pm 1734063004

Government actions throughout the western world were absurd, authoritarian and unjustified throughout that period. And they lied to us constantly the entire time about key issues trying to control by fear and everyone knows it.

by agnostium | 13th Dec 24, 5:52pm 1734065539

What are you doing posting on here? Did you get booted out of the Facebook conspiracy pages?

by andreas_od | 13th Dec 24, 8:53pm 1734076407

if you could not see it then and can't see it now by looking in the past, then I am now sure those Data Scientist that left your company to other countries made right data-driven decision , as everything mentioned above can be easily proven by data (even from govt sources and it was even published on govt sources at that time ... but who cares , just "keep the right distance ... 2 m, don't go to the supermarket in different area .. only to your local one, .... and my favourite - don't forget your vax pass to hairdresser or cafe ... because you know .. "your summer is cancelled" ")

by K.W. | 14th Dec 24, 9:36am 1734122172

My favourite was "if you stand up in a restaurant you have to put a mask on, if you sit down in a restaurant you can take the mask off"

For those who still think the covid response was based on "science" then they should go read the US Senate Committee report, where its acknowledged that those that made up the rules did so without any evidence or data to back them up.

Summary and link to the report here https://www.malone.news/p/press-release-final-report-covid?

by KiwiinSpain | 13th Dec 24, 7:57pm 1734073027

True Lapiz.

I'd love to see an impartial study asking a cohort of ex-pats the underlying reasons why they have left. You know, incentivise us with some KFC balls. That worked a treat during those Labour years to get the good citizens jabbed 😂.

Queensland didn't see an Exodus but Melbourne did? Wonder why???

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 9:20pm 1734078027

That guy running Vic was an utter nutter

by DMC45 | 14th Dec 24, 6:10pm 1734153012

Western world.....I'd say govt actions in China and the Philippines, to name a few, were far more draconian than in the western world.

by 21Trillion | 13th Dec 24, 6:20pm 1734067233

Jesus, how many times do you need to be told that people aren't leaving because of one or two recent govts. It's NZs biggest issues that collectively all govts aren't addressing.

Btw, most of the world had moved on in 2021 realizing that it was nothing more than a new flu, NZ was still locking down late 2021 into early 2022

by LapisLazuli5297 | 13th Dec 24, 9:18pm 1734077919

A few people won't let go of their partisan blinkers. If the economy had been going so well under the Labour Government then they wouldn't have lost their record polling so quickly to suffer such a crushing defeat. Overall, you are spot on. Also with the COVID stuff, where Labour thought they could get away with a narrowly scoped whitewash of an inquiry into the decisions took during the period.

by Jesse1 | 13th Dec 24, 11:08pm 1734084500

I'm about to leave NZ because of the FIF regime.

This year I have moved most of my weatlh into US stocks & Bitcoin ETFs and the tax next year will be significant. It's very high for a wealth tax and it's not a net calculation so any margin loan doesn't get considered.

I'm not actually against a lower rate wealth tax that captures all net assets similar to some other countries but I feel I'm unfairly being singled out (I don't have a tax free house).

Currently deciding between Australia (CGT exempt) or the UK (4 years CGT exempt)

by andreas_od | 14th Dec 24, 4:46am 1734104813

go to AU, the war might start in Europe in the next couple of years so U K might be affected

by HouseMouse | 14th Dec 24, 7:52am 1734115974

If a proper war starts through Europe then we are all toast

by LapisLazuli5297 | 14th Dec 24, 11:47am 1734130059

As long as its merely conventional it won't be too bad. I'm picking the first half of next year to be a very dangerous time, the test will be to see if Trump's administration can push back against neocon plans. Or if they join them.

by HouseMouse | 14th Dec 24, 7:55am 1734116128

Ps. You didn’t reply to my post above about elderly relatives. I am genuinely interested to know if I am wrong. Do elderly parents of immigrants who attain PR pay a fee to cover their healthcare costs?

by K.W. | 14th Dec 24, 9:31am 1734121898

It depends where you want to live long term. UK has recently changed the inheritance tax rules, so after 10 years you are subject to inheritance tax which still applies for up to 10 years after you leave the country.

Australia has the ability to invest through a self managed super fund, so depending on how far away retirement is, and how much cash you need before then, buying assets through a SMSF is great - the fund pays 15% income tax, and 10% CGT. Once you're 60 everything is tax free.

by Jesse1 | 14th Dec 24, 11:45am 1734129920

It's not widely known but for most Kiwis going to Australia you are fully exempt from all capital gains tax except for Australian property. As long as you are on a SCV and you don't have a permanent resident spouse. The worst thing is actually to go through with the citizenship path as that removes thee exemptions.

by Tillers | 14th Dec 24, 8:53am 1734119611

All these migrants will move to Aus post gaining citizenship. We need to improve productivity and also pay and have a more affordable housing market

by jd87 | 15th Dec 24, 10:04am 1734210285

All the productive skilled people with global skills and opportunities leaving. When you tax productive people to offset unproductive people and squander that money on initiatives that don't drive a return, you shouldn't be surprised when they leave.

House prices might go down, alongside quality of healthcare, infrastructure, education, etc. I'm sure there's cheap houses in Bangladesh too.

Can't maintain a first-world country on third-world skillsets and you need a good quality of life to attract those skills.

Multiple failings from multiple governments over the past 15 years have led to outrageous traffic and infrastructure, lack of affordable housing, billions in wasted spending by the government on stupid initiatives that haven't driven a return, and imploding healthcare and education systems.