Canada car sales retreat; Japanese inflation eases on power subsidies; China fumes over Panama port deal; Aussie private credit sector on 'watch'; UST 10yr at 4.25%, gold dips and oil firmish; NZ$1 = 57.4 USc; TWI = 66.9

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand with news politicians are defining everything as a 'security issue', and that is twisting how the world's economy operates.

If you are planning a trip to the US and it is for longer than 30 days, you should know that you are automatically suspected of "invading" and will have to register with the Department of Homeland Security (via the USCIS) and provide fingerprints. This is not required for a tourist entering on a short-term I-94 basis. This is in the news because of the impact on Canadians who winter in the US. Now Canadians won't have to provide fingerprints in a special exemption, but they will have to register. There will now be far fewer 'snowbirds'.

In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.

The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift.

As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.

In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.

The Russian central bank held its policy rate unchanged at 21%, a compromise for what the regulator thinks should be a rise to counter rising inflation (10.1% and up from 7.7% a year ago), and what the Kremlin and oligarchs want, being cheaper financing.

In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.

Here's something you don't see everyday. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.

The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +1 bp from yesterday at this time. But that is -6 bps lower than a week ago. The key 2-10 yield curve is steeper at +30 bps. Their 1-5 curve inversion is now -3 bp. And their 3 mth-10yr curve inversion is now -4 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.45% and up +2 bps from yesterday. The China 10 year bond rate is now at 1.90% and down -3 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.62%, up +2 bps from yesterday. A week ago it was at 4.68%.

Wall Street has opened its Friday trade with the S&P500 down -0.3%. If that holds it will be +0.2% firmer for the week. This market is being held back by disappointing forecasts from key companies including FedEx and Nike. Overnight European markets were all lower by about -0.6%. Yesterday, Tokyo closed down -0.2% for a net +2.9% weekly gain. Hong Kong ended its Friday session down -2.2% and that was its weekly drop too. Shanghai was down -1.3% for a weekly -1.9% retreat. Singapore was down -0.1%. The ASX200 ended its Friday trade up +0.2% for a +1.8% weekly rise. But the NZX50 only rose +0.5% at the end of Friday's trade for a -1.3% weekly fall.

The Fear & Greed Index ends the week staying in the 'extreme fear' zone, and unchanged from the past few weeks.

The price of gold will start today at just on US$3015/oz and down a net -US$15 from yesterday. A week ago this was at US$2983/oz so a +1.1% rise since then.

Oil prices are up another +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just over US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$67/bbl and US$70.50/bbl.

The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and down -10 bps from this time yesterday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and +10 bps firmer. A week ago it was at 66.7.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,901 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».