PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National’s leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job: Roy Morgan poll

PM Jacinda Ardern on track for easy re-election as National’s leader Todd Muller resigns after fewer than two months in the job: Roy Morgan poll

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

In June support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 54.5% down 2% since May, but still more than double the support for National on 27%, up only 0.5%, two months before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

The large decline in support for National since being level with Labour on 40% in January prompted the opposition to replace former leader Simon Bridges with Todd Muller in late May. The latest results for June show the change in leadership had a negligible impact on support for National and this week Muller resigned after less than two months in the job citing health reasons.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 879 electors during June. Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition held strong at 65% in June

In June 65% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 1% since May. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 32%, but up 2% since May.

  • Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was at only 1.5% in June, down 1% since May and down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First dropped below the party vote threshold of 5% in June and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
  • Greens support was at 9%, up 2% since May and up 2.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
  • Support for Act NZ increased to 5% in June, up 1.5% since May and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002.

A small minority of 3% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was up 0.5% to 1.5% in June and the Maori Party was at 1% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating at near record high of 153.5 in June

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 153.5 in June, but down 5pts from 158 in May.

The majority (72%) of New Zealand electors (down 4% since May) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 18.5% (up 1%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

In contrast to decline in the latest Government Confidence Rating the monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 7.2pts to 104.5 in June and was back above the neutral level of 100 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Although both indices started 2020 in a similar place with Government Confidence at 128.5 in January and ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 122.7 – they have moved in opposite directions since.

Government Confidence increased early in the year and peaked in April at a record high of 163, and has since declined 9.5pts, while Consumer Confidence dropped early in the year and hit a ten-year low of 84.8 in the same month and has since increased by 19.7pts over the last two months.

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January – June 2020. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 897.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour NZ First Green
National ACT NZ TOP** Maori
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 28.19 13.35 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 4.26 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 10.38 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.72 5.30 39.10 1.51 n/a 2.12 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 4.07 6.72 44.93 3.65 n/a 2.39 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 6.59 11.06 47.31 1.07 n/a 1.43 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 8.66 10.70 47.04 0.69 n/a 1.32 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 7.20 6.27 44.45 0.50 2.44 1.18 1.07
ROY MORGAN POLL                
Oct 2-15, 2017 31 6.5 11 46 0.5 2 1.5 1.5
Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017 39.5 5 10 40.5 0.5 2 1.5 1
Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017 37 8 10 40.5 0.5 2.5 0.5 1
Jan 2-28, 2018 42.5 6 9 39 0.5 1.5 1 0.5
January 2020 40 2.5 10.5 40 3 0.5 1.5 2
February 2020 40.5 5 10.5 37 3.5 1.5 1 1
March 2020 42.5 3 11.5 37 3.5 1 0.5 1
April 2020 55 2.5 7 30.5 2.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
May 2020 56.5 2.5 7 26.5 3.5 1 1.5 1.5
June 2020 54.5 1.5 9.0 27.0 5.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.


Yesterday’s news.

I wouldn't believe a pollster if they predicted which side of the horizon the sun would appear over at dawn, Roy Morgan least of all. Colmar Brunton or Reid Research only slightly less so.

Horizon wins the award for the pollster I trust the least. It’s run by Mike Moore’s old campaign manager and trots out pro Labour polls on a regular basis.

Haha..EE, I guess whoever pays the fee gets the result they're paying for.

The hunger games have begun in earnest now. Expecting fluctuations in the fortune and many devious and clever moves by the warring factions. Get the popcorn and ice cream ready, folks.

The Pollsters said Donald Trump could and would never be elected .

The local pollsters wrote off Winston Peters too .Polls are often wrong.

I see National as being in with a bloody good chance

I think if people sit down before the election and write down everything Labour has actually accomplished over the past 3 years it's a very short list. I suppose they can use covid-19 as the reason the year of delivery also failed. Actually my list is a blank page.

A blank sheet didn't seem to stop John Key's National getting elected for 9 years.
Though, if you look at it a certain way, crony capitalism is an achievement of sorts.

That says more about the quality of opposition Key was against.

I think a blank sheet would be great. It's not quite a blank sheet and that's a pity.

Pollsters did not say that, they correctly forecast that Trump was going to be behind in the popular vote, which is what happened.
The electoral college scam got him in despite getting 3 million fewer votes than Clinton

national has a "bloody good chance"

SO DO I National and Act winning by a nose

Around 6% of voters are licenced firearm owners. ( 240,000)
ACT benefiting.

Winston will put out a skeleton out of Jacindas closet and swing everything towards him and National voters will back him to keep Labour on a level footing. The worsetvthing ever would be a Labour Govt with no control.

It was only a few years ago that National and Labour alternated as parties in government with no "partner" parties. What has changed? The right is more intolerant, and unwilling to have their narrative questioned?

Well, Dirty Politics happened, for one. A self-professed deliberate attempt by the folk involved on National's side to introduce American style attack politics to NZ.

No a lot worse than that would be a Labour & Greens only government with the former obviously being incapable of restraining the latter.

Would a Labour government without Shane Jones be a totally bad thing? People are saying that the polls in USA are going to affect how Trumpie acts in his second term. All Auntie Judith has to do is increase the Nats vote from a pretty low base, and she is safe for a bit. It won't be dull with her as leader, but gee, Labour have a lot of mud with her name on it to throw.

Your access to our unique content is free - always has been. But ad revenues are under pressure so we need your direct support.

Become a supporter

Thanks, I'm already a supporter.