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Latest Roy Morgan poll shows PM Jacinda Ardern maintains ‘crushing’ lead over new National leader Judith Collins

Latest Roy Morgan poll shows PM Jacinda Ardern maintains ‘crushing’ lead over new National leader Judith Collins

Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research.


In July support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 53.5% down 1% since June, but still more than double the support for National on 26.5%, down 0.5%, with just over a month to go before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

Interviewing for this survey in July encompassed the period before and after Judith Collins became the new leader of National in mid-July after former leader Todd Muller’s shock resignation after less than two months in the role.

The early indications are that the new leader has had a negligible impact on support for National although a full month of interviewing in August will provide a clearer picture in the run-up to next month’s election.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition remains strong at 63% in July

In June 63% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 2% since June. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 33%, up 1% since June.

  • Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was unchanged at only 1.5% in July, and more importantly down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First are again below the party vote threshold of 5% in July and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
     
  • Greens support was at 8%, down 1% since June, but still up 1.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
     
  • Importantly, support for Act NZ continues to increase and was at 6.5% in July, up 1.5% since June and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002 when the party scored over 7% of the vote and won 9 seats in Parliament.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 1.5% in July and the Maori Party was at 0.5% (down 0.5%).

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating down, but still near highs at 152.5 in July

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 152.5 in July, down 1pt from 153.5 in June.

The majority (71.5%) of New Zealand electors (down 0.5% since June) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19% (up 0.5%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was also barely changed in July at 104.3, down 0.2pts from June (104.5).

The stability in both indicators follows four months of large changes from March to June that drove Roy Morgan Government Confidence to a record high in April while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating hit its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in the same month at only 84.8.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to be re-elected with an increased majority next month as National turn to yet another new leader in mid-July to try and revive their fortunes:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s adept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is still paying dividends with the Labour Party set to substantially increase its majority at next month’s election.

“Support for the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party was at 53.5% in July and still more than double that of National on 26.5%, now led by new leader Judith Collins. Collins became National’s third leader in 2020 in mid-July and today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows there has been no immediate bounce in support for National after their second change of leader this year.

“Labour’s coalition partners NZ First are in danger of missing out on a return to Parliament as their support has stagnated at only 1.5% for a second straight month. Support for NZ First is down 5.7% on their result at the 2017 NZ Election and may signal the end of the long political career of leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Peters was first elected to the Parliament more than forty years ago before current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was born.

“The biggest beneficiaries of the demise of NZ First are set to be Act NZ which has again increased its support in July, up 1.5% to 6.5%. Act NZ are set to achieve their best result at a New Zealand election since 2002 when the party received 7.1% of the vote and won nine seats.

“A strong performance from the right-wing Act NZ at this year’s election will strengthen the hand of David Seymour, and his new deputy leader Brooke van Velden, and place further pressure on National leader Judith Collins to rally support on the centre-right.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

New Zealand Party Vote

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

New Zealand Coalition Support

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

New Zealand GCR

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22 Comments

Really makes it look like National's internal polling that puts them at 35% or higher have methodological flaws.

Rogue polls? Perhaps they'll ask David for a refund.

Gerry's use of that term was interesting. I wonder how much he truly understands it himself, or if he was just using a term people had heard before and used it as a bullshit excuse.

Rogue polls are effectively the 1 in 20 polls that don't reflect the true population's views on something within the 95% confidence interval (that's literally what the 95% confidence interval means: 1 in 20 are outside it). But typically the result will only be 'just' outside the range, eg if the true support is 35% and the poll result says it is 31% +/- 3, in that case it's rogue because the true value of 35% was outside of the 31% +/- 3, but it was only 'just' outside the range.

The numbers on the Reid Research poll were substantially different to what National claimed their internal polling showed. Thus it is highly likely the difference in the results is due to sampling error, bias, or interpretation error or bias. Those factors mean it's not a "rogue poll".

Personally I think the wide difference here is due to sampling or interpretation bias. I suspect a lot of people who would normally vote National are likely to not vote at all, and Reid Research / Roy Morgan are picking this up, and National's internal polls are not.

There is a question over Reid Research's use of non-random panels as 30% of their political polling. They have had a couple of labour flattering outliers compared to other polls in last year. Might be real, might not.

Really makes it look like National's internal polling that puts them at 35% or higher have methodological flaws.

David Farrar's Curia might have the National Party polling gig. I challenged him one time over a leading question in what of Curia's surveys. No response from Cuira.

Crushers negative statement will have a damaging consequence and so the reverse effect concerning Phil Twyford. So he will have the Last LONG Laugh.
I couldn't believe she released her book prior to the election slamming Wong Key. Not a good look when you carn't endorse your previous (full-time) prime minister. In fact, it was just Plain Dumb.

Maybe it was a truly internal poll and they only asked National party members who they will voting for.. looks about right in that case :)

"A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.
Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 1.5% in July and the Maori Party was at 0.5% (down 0.5%)."
That leaves 2 %, quite alot compared to 1.5% and 0.5%. Be interested to know how that breaks down.

10
up

If Jacinda guarantees to NOT open the borders to foreign 'more highly skilled' workers then she gets my vote. We need to train our own people if we are lacking skills. I wonder if the newly vocal John Key is using his powerful Chinese influence to put this idea in Jacindas' head?

Surely JA has just opened the door for Winston here...

Tillers - Do you mean a Trap - Door. Is he going to end up in Hong Kong......???

Bit late - the heavyweight's are getting to her already ...
"Jacinda Ardern says border may open for essential skilled migrants"
"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has confirmed the Government is looking at the first significant loosening of NZ’s closed border and strict visa regime since entering lockdown in March. The Government is keen to get local businesses more access to essential skilled workers to help grow the economy and create opportunities for resident Kiwis"
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/122380097/tick-tick-podcast-ja...

IMO highly skilled workers where employers can show a genuine need e.g. contractors who employed skilled drivers during the planting /harvesting season, should be prioritised over returning kiwis who have no job to go to. Officials need to understand the difference in skill level between 'steerers' and drivers. You can train a person to be a 'steerer' but it can take years of experience to be a 'skilled driver'.

Why aren’t the likes of Stuff and the NZH reporting this poll!

No Kardashians.

Possibly embargoed from major outlets till 3 news gets to use it on the Sunday 6pm news???

How was it ever going to go well for the Tories with crusher and the woodwork teacher? Do they really think their angry brand of dirty politics will resonate with the 99% ? Oh well at least John bought back in honours so they can get their gong and go run a construction company or bank when the gravy train gets to its last stop.

I expect NZ First to go hard on their 'handbrake' pitch.

NZ First and The Greens know they are on a hiding-to-nothing at this election.
So, they need to look ahead.
Supporting Labour initiatives through this campaign will likely give Ardern the chance to cement a long term future of 'keeping the coalition together' even if it's not needed. Something along the lines of National keeping ACT alive.
Partners may not be needed at this election, but they may at future ones, and keeping allies on-side; even giving out a cabinet post or two to them, may not be such a bad idea.

"Rogue" polls
last 7 has Labour over 52% of the vote.
last 8 average for National is around 30%
Last 3 ALL have Labour lead of at least 25%
Bye bye Judith. nasty is not wanted.

Depends if people are so put off by nasty that they're prepared to overlook incompetence.

It could be a fatal mistake for Labour to start acting like they shouldn't have to accounting for not delivering what they promised last time. It looks like they're about to try it though.

Think I will give ACT a go this election I'm pretty tired of the two main parties. Better to vote ACT than to give up and not vote at all at least you can say you didn't vote for Labour while they stuff up another term.

Days to the General Election: 26
See Party Policies here. Party Lists here.