This content is from Roy Morgan. The original is here.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government dropped 1.5% points to 49.5% in July – the lowest for the Government since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Support for the Labour Party was up 1% point to 39.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 10%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since last year’s election.
The governing parties are now just 5% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 44.5%, up 1% point since June. This is the highest level of support for the Parliamentary Opposition since October 2019 and the closest they’ve been to the Government since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.
Support for National was virtually unchanged at 29%, down 0.5% points, while the big mover was Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to a record high 13%. This is the first time since 2002 that Act NZ has gained a higher level of support than the Greens. Support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%.
A small minority of 6% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party up 1% point to a record high 3%, support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2% in July.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 945 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed an unchanged 4.5% didn’t name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 3pts to pandemic low of 121 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3pts in July to 121 – the lowest it has been since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.
In July a reduced majority of 55.5% (down 1.5% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to over a third, 34.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – the highest figure for this indicator since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.
The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down slightly by 1pt to 113.1 in July but is still well above the corresponding Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 100.7 on July 24/25, 2021 as that country battles a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Sydney.
Massive ‘Gender gap’ as Women favour Labour-Greens and men favour National-Act NZ
Analysing voting intentions by gender reveals where Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies.
A clear majority of 58.5% of Women support either Labour (46.5%) or the Greens (12%) compared to only 40.5% of men supporting either Labour (32.5%) or the Greens (8%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 18% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among Women.
In fact a majority of men support the Parliamentary opposition with 52.5% supporting either National (32.5%), Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to only 36.5% of Women supporting either National (25.5%), Act NZ (8.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 130 for Women compared to 112 for men
The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 59% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 52% of men and only 29% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 40% of men.
Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 130 for Women compared to only 112 for men – a gap of 18 points.
Party vote analysis by Gender
| Total | Men | Women | |
| % | % | % | |
| Labour | 39.5 | 32.5 | 46.5 |
| Greens | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Labour/Greens | 49.5 | 40.5 | 58.5 |
| National | 29.0 | 32.5 | 25.5 |
| Act NZ | 13.0 | 17.5 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| National/Act NZ/ Maori Party | 44.5 | 52.5 | 36.5 |
| Others | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | |||
| Right Direction | 55.5 | 52.0 | 59.0 |
| Wrong Direction | 34.5 | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | 121.0 | 112.0 | 130.0 |
| Can’t say | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
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