This content is from Roy Morgan. The original is here.
Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government dropped 1.5% points to 49.5% in July – the lowest for the Government since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Support for the Labour Party was up 1% point to 39.5% but support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 10%. This is the lowest level of support for the Greens since last year’s election.
The governing parties are now just 5% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 44.5%, up 1% point since June. This is the highest level of support for the Parliamentary Opposition since October 2019 and the closest they’ve been to the Government since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.
Support for National was virtually unchanged at 29%, down 0.5% points, while the big mover was Act NZ which increased its support by 1.5% points to a record high 13%. This is the first time since 2002 that Act NZ has gained a higher level of support than the Greens. Support for the Maori Party was unchanged at 2.5%.
A small minority of 6% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for The Opportunities Party up 1% point to a record high 3%, support for NZ First up 0.5% points to 2% in July.
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 945 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed an unchanged 4.5% didn’t name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 3pts to pandemic low of 121 in July
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 3pts in July to 121 – the lowest it has been since Jacinda Ardern became Prime Minister in October 2017 nearly four years ago.
In July a reduced majority of 55.5% (down 1.5% points) of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to over a third, 34.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – the highest figure for this indicator since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to power in October 2017.
The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down slightly by 1pt to 113.1 in July but is still well above the corresponding Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 100.7 on July 24/25, 2021 as that country battles a renewed outbreak of COVID-19 in Sydney.
Massive ‘Gender gap’ as Women favour Labour-Greens and men favour National-Act NZ
Analysing voting intentions by gender reveals where Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies.
A clear majority of 58.5% of Women support either Labour (46.5%) or the Greens (12%) compared to only 40.5% of men supporting either Labour (32.5%) or the Greens (8%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 18% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among Women.
In fact a majority of men support the Parliamentary opposition with 52.5% supporting either National (32.5%), Act NZ (17.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%) compared to only 36.5% of Women supporting either National (25.5%), Act NZ (8.5%) or the Maori Party (2.5%).
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 130 for Women compared to 112 for men
The trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which show 59% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 52% of men and only 29% of Women say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 40% of men.
Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 130 for Women compared to only 112 for men – a gap of 18 points.
Party vote analysis by Gender
| Total | Men | Women | |
| % | % | % | |
| Labour | 39.5 | 32.5 | 46.5 |
| Greens | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Labour/Greens | 49.5 | 40.5 | 58.5 |
| National | 29.0 | 32.5 | 25.5 |
| Act NZ | 13.0 | 17.5 | 8.5 |
| Maori Party | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| National/Act NZ/ Maori Party | 44.5 | 52.5 | 36.5 |
| Others | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | |||
| Right Direction | 55.5 | 52.0 | 59.0 |
| Wrong Direction | 34.5 | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating* | 121.0 | 112.0 | 130.0 |
| Can’t say | 10.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence
Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 928.
35 Comments
Hey Ed - do you just remove any comments now that do not follow the "party " line , without explanation ?
If those are the new rules you should at least make it clear.
My comment here was :
"
Right about National , wrong about Labour - that lot would basically give anything to MP ; wherein lies the problem .
"
For quite a few elections National did not possess a viable coalition partner in a substantive sense. ACT are looking to fill that gap but the way things are going there might even be a role reversal. Says here that ACT has not surpassed the Greens since 2002. Thought in the 2020 election ACT 3rd Greens 4th? Detailing The Maori Party as part of a combination of opposition parties to arrive at a statistic, is pointless.
Final party vote has greens at 7.86% vs 7.58% for Act in 2020.
I think in the preliminary results, Act were slightly ahead.
Re: Roy Morgan lumping in Maori Party with the opposition - yes. Roy Morgan's analysis of their own poll results is routinely awful. They shamelessly create narratives out of nothing.
Looks like the gap suggests what women wants are drastically different from what men wants.
Maybe a more women focus marketing program would buy the votes over like extended fully paid maternity leaves, government pay top ups for perceived differences in gender pay gaps, free childcare, subsidised dietician and physiology on top of free pregnancy kits and sanitary pads.
I think political parties should pay heed if they want the votes.
I voted for Act last election and popped along to their recent speaking night and was horrified. Against gun registration, making jokes about EVs drivers (the people, not the opposition parties), we should be burning NZ coal instead of offshore coal.
But that's the libertarian party for you. You get some sensible ideas in and around the conspiracy theories and the kooks. Think I'll go back to one of the main parties next time.
Lord Dowding
David Seymour is my electorate MP. I attended one of his street meetings before the last election. There were quite a few attendees all standing dutifully 2 metres apart because of Covid.. After a feeble introductory few lines he asked for questions 'from the floor'. No one stirred so I thought I should ask one to save him from any embarrassment. He rambled on in vague terms more or less skirting my question but suggested I should come and see him in his electoral office. No one seemed to have any questions so I advanced another topic after another embarrassing silence. This happened four times and then time was up. I was totally underwhelmed. It seemed as though the purpose of his meetings was merely to show the flag. But what a pathetic drooping flag it was.
My opinion of Seymour is that by default and in desperation he has become the last man standing amongst the tawdry faded opposition to Labour. I credit him his euthanasia bill but I believe he is just a 'one-trick pony'; I just can't see him having the leadership qualities needed to run the country in these difficult times.
I voted for Act last election and popped along to their recent speaking night and was horrified. Against gun registration, making jokes about EVs drivers (the people, not the opposition parties), we should be burning NZ coal instead of offshore coal.
But that's the libertarian party for you. You get some sensible ideas in and around the conspiracy theories and the kooks. Think I'll go back to one of the main parties next time.
You’d rather have “ Justice Minister Kris Faafoi isn't ruling out parents being criminalised if they stopped their children from taking hormone blockers in a way that is deemed to be harmful conversion therapy.”?
To be honest, I’m feeling pretty disillusioned by the entire political circus at the moment.
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