Top 10 at 10 to 11: Sneaky German plan to bail out Greeks; Gareth v Huljich; Peak oil; Dilbert

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 to 11. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Tuesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz 1. Huljich hots up - The debate over the Huljich KiwiSaver funds performance affair is getting hotter by the week. Gareth Morgan, who runs a competing KiwiSaver fund, came out in the Sunday Star Times on the weekend and said Peter Huljich was not fit to be a fund manager and our securities regulators lack "gonads". Gareth rarely fails to tell us what he really thinks. Rob Stock also has a nice piece citing AMP's concerns about a two-tier market developing. Here's Gareth teeing off again.

Peter Huljich has admitted to manipulating returns figures. What he did was tell lies about his performance in order to instil confidence in prospective investors in the Hiljuch KiwiSaver funds. As such, in my opinion, he is totally unfit to be a KiwiSaver provider. The only issue really from here is whether the regulators between them have the gonads to deal with him appropriately. So far they have demonstrated a decided lack of bottle. And we wonder why New Zealanders have so little confidence in our financial markets. When it is possible to manipulate figures and get away with it like this, New Zealanders are absolutely rational to shun our capital markets. They are not free markets at all, they are stacked in favour of men such as Huljich.

2. Peak oil - New Plymouth engineer John de Bueger writes in the ODT about peak oil, saying Mining Minister Gerry Brownlee needs to be more aware of 'peak oil' and prepare for it. He points to a recent report by the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security HT Matt Strachan via email.

In this respect Gerry is exhibiting the archetypal behavioural response of the caveman - a condition I hasten to add that he shares with 95% of the human race, and 100% of politicians. That is a total inability to rationally weigh the seriousness of future risks against pressing short-term expediency. This human character flaw stems from primordial days when surviving an attack from circling sabre tooth tigers was higher up the do-list than laying in stores for the coming winter. Given human greed and frailty, it isn't surprising that the majority of the world's population remain utterly indifferent to the looming energy crisis, but one might have hoped that an Energy Minister would know better. Given the gravity of the looming energy situation, and the relatively minor returns likely to be achieved by mining in the national parks, instead of poking a stick into a hornet's nest, it would make more sense if the Government set up a similar review body to fully analyse the implications of peak oil on this country.

3. 'Vee haf vays of bailing you out' - The FT is reporting that Germany's biggest banks are looking at a rescue plan for Greece under which they would buy Greek debt backed by financial guarantees from Berlin. This is all very clever. German voters wouldn't directly be handing cash over to the Greeks. Instead their sometimes privately owned banks would do it, with a guarantee from the state. This all seems a bit too cute. I can't imagine it will get through the firestorm of public and shareholder protest unscathed. It also depends on the Greeks delivering credible cuts in spending. Here's the Bloomberg version.

One senior German bank official said serious thought was being given to a plan for the German government, working through KfW, its development bank, to issue guarantees to banks that bought Greek debt. Several such banks, including Hypo Real Estate, Eurohypo and Deutsche Postbank, which hold billions of euros of Greek debt, all said they would not increase their holdings. However, guarantees from Berlin for what could be high-yielding debt might soften their stance.

4. Watch out for California - Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan Chase, has warned that California could be more of a problem for US banks than Greece, the Telegraph reported.

Mr Dimon told investors at the Wall Street bank's annual meeting that "there could be contagion" if a state the size of California, the biggest of the United States, had problems making debt repayments. "Greece itself would not be an issue for this company, nor would any other country," said Mr Dimon. "We don't really foresee the European Union coming apart." The senior banker said that JP Morgan Chase and other US rivals are largely immune from the European debt crisis, as the risks have largely been hedged.

5. In a similar vein - The FT has an indepth piece on the fiscal problems in the US states. Luckily for the states, they haven't built up debts because most have balanced budgets laws, but they're not out of the woods.

"For US states, it is not a debt problem, it is a spending problem," says Peter Hayes, head of the municipal bond group at BlackRock. "The length and depth of the downturn is so much greater than anything we have seen that states cannot cut spending fast enough and they cannot really raise taxes further." The concern is that the belt-tightening could hamper the national US economic recovery, one reason that individual states are being supported by the federal government through its stimulus programme.

The economic downturn has decimated tax collections, ripping large holes in budgets that state lawmakers have slashed spending to plug. Last week, new research showed that states also face a gap of at least $1,000bn for pension and healthcare pledges to state workers. Similarities have been drawn between US states and some eurozone members because they are grappling with an global economic slowdown and large budget deficits. With warnings from states from New York to California that they are running out of cash or suspending bill payments, it is logical to ask whether they will default "“ the same question that Greece is facing.

6. The dangers of auto-taxes - Eric Felten writes at the Wall St Journal about how people are much less aware of the size of tolls and taxes when they are raised 'automatically' through electronic collection or 'Pay as you earn' rather than through a more manual method.

Technologies sold on convenience can prove to be awfully convenient for those setting prices. Consider electronic toll collection systems such as E-ZPass that let drivers blow past highway tollbooths. How wonderful to no longer have to wait in infuriating lines to pay our traffic tribute. And yet, zipping past the toll plaza, how many of us give a thought to how much we were just charged? Could it be that our new electronically induced ignorance gives a green light to those who would super-size the fees? That's the question that MIT economist Amy Finkelstein asked in a recent study of toll-collection nationwide. She found that there was "a strikingly lower awareness of the amount paid in tolls by those who pay electronically," and thus, not surprisingly, that "toll rates increase after the adoption of electronic toll collection," usually by 20% to 40%.

7. Yuan appreciation test? - Reuters reports from a Chinese newspaper that the government has done some stress testing on what a yuan appreciation might do for exporters' profits. Is this an initial step before the inevitable revaluation that many Western economists are saying is needed and imminent? I have my doubts the Chinese will buckle. They haven't before and they are mercantilists to their bones.

The newspaper cited industry sources as saying that the results of the test, conducted jointly by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, would serve as a reference for the government's future yuan policy. It added that these tests did not mean that Beijing was about to let the yuan appreciate, having frozen it in place against the dollar since mid-2008 as the government has tried to cushion exporters from the global financial crisis. Nevertheless, the report marks a rare discussion in Chinese media about the feasible scope for yuan appreciation and comes amid rising speculation that Beijing may be on the verge of allowing yuan appreciation to resume. According to the initial results of the tests, which focussed on textile, garment, shoe and toy exporters, every percentage point of yuan appreciation would erode one percentage point of their profit margin. This would be a serious blow to profitability since their net profit margin is often only 3 to 5 percent, the newspaper said.

8. A lucky country? - FT heavyweight Edward Chancellor writes about Australia's over-valued housing market here.

Australia may have been fortunate. But it is not out of the woods. For a start, the real estate market remains in bubble territory. Australian home prices are currently some 70 per cent above their long-term trend level. A recent survey by Demographia International finds that all of Australia's major housing markets were valued at more than five times average incomes, and defines them as "severely unaffordable." Initial mortgage payments for a home in Sydney or Melbourne are likely to exceed half of your disposable income, claims Demographia. The Australian housing market looks vulnerable to further rate rises. Aussie house prices have not fallen since the early 1950s. A certain complacency is therefore understandable. Yet not long ago many Americans also believed that domestic home prices could never fall. So far Australia has avoided its day of reckoning. But how long will the lucky country's luck last?

9. Totally relevant video - Jon Stewart does his thing at The Daily Show.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Make it Rain - Bank of America
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Vancouverage 2010

10. Totally irrelevant video - Some interesting facts about the Internet. JESS3 / The State of The Internet from Jesse Thomas on Vimeo.