Top 10 at 10 past 10: Greek debt clock ticking; AIG insured Greek debt; Aussie debt mountain grows; Dilbert

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 10. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Tuesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz We do not sacrifice animals or humans to improve our Google Pagerank. But I have a few spiders in the basement that can pass on to the other side for the greater good... It always pays to keep Larry and Sergey happy in their private jet (Boeing 767). 1. Short term thinking - Rod Oram tees off in his Sunday Star Times column at the government's short term thinking on the issues of commodity exports, mining national parks and the use of water to pump up dairy output. He also slams the financial hub idea, which is fair enough.

Establish an offshore financial services centre for managed funds. The idea is we can be a trustworthy back office, clipping for ourselves a minute faction of the multibillion-dollar flow of funds in and out of the country. This is so 1980s it's laughable. Back then we reckoned we could be "the Switzerland of the South Pacific". Instead, we've seen a rapid atrophying of our financial sector as multinational companies consolidate services in larger centres far closer to major markets. Why does the government think a tweak in tax regulations, a few incentives to lure expat workers and a marketing campaign can turn that around? Back office operations are the ultimate commodity business in finance, devoid of creativity, innovation and genuine economic value to the host country. Ask Ireland, the example the prime minister touts, how it feels about the swingeing job cuts multinationals are making in Dublin. Moreover, do we really want to be identified with Liechtenstein, the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and all the other offshore financial centres that are under intense scrutiny by the G20, IMF and World Bank? These examples, plus others the government is working on, starkly reveal how devoid it is of insight and ambition, a failing shared by many New Zealand companies. At best their only idea is of incremental improvement of current strategies.

2. Gaynor grumpy - Brian Gaynor writes a grumpy column in the NZHerald on Saturday saying the government isn't moving fast enough to implement the recommendations of the Capital Markets Development Taskforce.

By bunching the 60 recommendations together, and having an implement date just before the 2011 general election, Power has set himself an unrealistic task. At best, there will be significant slippage before the Taskforce's recommendations are implemented.

Gaynor also looks at an independent report into a recent buyout offer by Allan 'The Hawk' Hawkins for Cynotech, which runs a finance company.  How on earth did Allan Hawkins, who has been convicted of fraud, get a company listed on the NZX and why on earth did National Bank lend him money?

The release of the Independent Advisers Report this week revealed that Hawkins, who is Cynotech's chairman and chief executive, has relied on family, friends and associates to fund the finance company and he wants to retire in two years. The company has total funding of $14 million and the main loan providers are Mike Daniel, who had lent Cynotech $6 million, and the National Bank $1.71 million. Daniel was Hawkins and Equiticorp's main stockbroker in the 1980s and his $6 million loan is now current and he probably wants his money back. Essentially Cynotech has no future because Hawkins has run out of steam, his existing funders want their money back and he can't raise new funding as reflected by the dismal response to last year's Capital Securities issue. Cynotech is the third listed company that Hawkins has controlled and its fate will be little better than the other two, Equiticorp and Ararimu Holdings.

3. Unintended consequences - New rules for US credit card issuers are about to kick in, costing them an estimated US$12 billion. They all seem sensible enough but the unintended consequences could be large and painful for US consumers and the (world's largest) economy. The FT has the story.

The new rules, known as the Card Act, prohibit interest rate increases on existing balances and require card issuers to give 45 days' notice before raising rates on future balances. Also outlawed are automatic overdraft fees and surcharges for paying bills by phone. Card issuers are scrambling to offset that lost revenue with cost cuts, the easiest way being to weed out the riskiest borrowers. Morrison Foerster, which worked with a group of big issuers to quantify the impact of the Card Act and provided its findings to the US Federal Reserve, concluded that some 45.5m people, or 20 per cent of the US population, could find themselves without cards as a result.

4. Greek countdown - The moment of truth is approaching in Greece as it prepares to raise the 20 billion euros it needs to roll over debt due in April and May. Bond auctions are likely to happen some time this week or next week. The FT reported the Greek Prime Minister saying Greece needed help to raise the money at the same interest rates as anyone else in Europe. A general strike is planned for Wednesday as public servants and others rebel against the tough conditions being set by the Germans. This is not going to end well.

"What we are saying simply is we need the help so that we can borrow at the same rate as other countries, not at high rates which in fact undermine our possibility for making the changes and cutting down our deficit," George Papandreou told the BBC's Andrew Marr show. Bankers in Athens expect a multibillion-euro syndicated bond issue to be launched within days after the government appointed a senior commercial banker on Friday as new head of its debt agency. Mr Papandreou said Greece's borrowing needs were covered till mid-March. "What we are saying simply is we need the help so that we can borrow at the same rate as other countries, not at high rates which in fact undermine our possibility for making the changes and cutting down our deficit," he said. However, the appointment of Petros Christodoulou, general manager for treasury global markets at National Bank of Greece, the country's biggest lender, fuelled expectations that the government would try to raise €3bn-€5bn ($4bn-$6.7bn) as early as this week.

5. Will they or won't they? - The assumption is that the German population is so opposed to bailouts that the German government will never agree to help Greece. Or will they? It seems the bureacrats are cooking up a rescue package behind the scenes, according to a scoop in Der Spiegel, Reuters reported.

Germany's finance ministry has sketched out a plan in which countries using the euro currency will provide aid worth between 20 billion and 25 billion euros ($27-$33.7 billion) for Greece, a magazine reported on Saturday. Citing "initial considerations" by the ministry, German weekly Der Spiegel said the share of financial aid for Greece would be calculated according to the proportion of capital each country holds in the European Central Bank.

6. Could US govt end up bailing out Euro banks? - That is the implication of this curious little snippet that emerged over the weekend in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. It seems the US government-owned AIG is a big holder of Credit Default Swaps in Greek sovereign debt. The implication is that if Greece defaults then AIG will have to pay out European banks enormous sums in a re-run of the Lehman debacle, where AIG eventually made 100% payouts to Goldman Sachs and others on Lehman CDSs. Many say AIG was used as a Trojan horse (how appropriately Greek) to bail out the US banks. Could the US government end up having to bail out European banks via AIG? American voters are (not) going to love that. HT Yves Smith at Naked Capitalism.

London investment bankers name AIG as a further CDS-seller. That company had to be nationalized during the financial crisis due to its having written insolvency insurance on American mortgages. This debt-load would have led to the collapse of the world's biggest insurer. Prior to the financial crisis AIG is said to have widely held State credit-risk. If yet-larger insurance positions on Greece exist, then the American government would have a strong interest in preventing that country's insolvency.

7. Peak oil forecast - Bank of America and Barclays Capital have forecast the oil price will hit US$100 a barrel this year as the global economic recovery drives demand up in emerging economies to meet supply, which is hitting its peaks. Ambrose Evans Pritchard has the story at The Telegraph. HT Steven via email

Francisco Blanch, from Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said crude may touch $105 next year, with $150 in sight by 2014. "Approximately 1.7bn consumers in emerging markets with a per capita income of $5,000 to $20,000 are eagerly waiting to buy cars, air-conditioning units, or white goods," he said. China has overtaken the US as the world's top car market. Mr Blanch expects oil demand to rise by a further 2.8m barrels per day (bpd) in China and 2.5m bpd in India by 2015, when two giants will be absorbing the lion's share of Gulf output. Consumption in the West has already peaked and will fall each year as populations shrink and we waste less, but the West no longer sets the price. Global use will increase by 8.8m bpd to 95m bpd.

8. Oh dear - Citibank has told customers in the United States that it reserves the right to ask for 7 days advance notice whenever people want to withdraw...just in case there's a run. This is not the best way to inspire confidence. BusinessInsider has the story.

The image of banks locking their doors to keep customers from making withdrawals during a bank run is what immediately came to mind when we heard that Citigroup was telling customers it has the right to prevent any withdrawals from checking accounts for seven days. "Effective April 1, 2010, we reserve the right to require (7) days advance notice before permitting a withdrawal from all checking accounts. While we do not currently exercise this right and have not exercised it in the past, we are required by law to notify you of this change," Citigroup said on statements received by customers all over the country.

9. Aussie debt mountain - Australia's housing market has continued on its merry bubbly way in the last year or two. Personal debts are rising and some are wondering how sustainable that is, News.com.au reports Hmmm.

HOMEBUYERS and investors have nearly doubled their borrowings over the past five years, figures show. Latest Reserve Bank of Australia figures show total housing debt hit $910.1 billion in December, up 17 per cent over 12 months and up 92 per cent since December 2004. Total housing debt is set to reach $1 trillion within a year. The figure itself is not a worry, but there is concern the pace of borrowing is exceeding household income growth. AMP Capital Investors chief economist Shane Oliver says the rapid growth of housing debt could be Australia's "achilles heel" amid any sharp rise in interest rates or unemployment, although neither is expected in the short term. Oliver says factors driving the borrowing boom include government first-home buyer incentives in recent years, generational lows in interest rates and rising house prices as demand outstrips land releases.

10. Totally irrelevant (but awesome) video - Last Friday night I went to the 'Onyas' awards for internet companies at the Wellington Town Hall. It was a great night capped off by this truly amazing piece of digital art projected onto the back wall of the Town Hall. It was totally integrated with the shape of the back wall and included the organ into the visuals. It was produced by darkroom.tv and here it is for your viewing pleasure on YoutubeHD My favourite bit is 4.30 in when the organ becomes a red chomping monster machine. Just awesome digital art. Watch it in big screen mode.