sign up log in
Want to go ad-free? Find out how, here.

Top 10 at 10: Japan to fire up printing presses; 'Banking time bomb'; Default for Greece?; Dilbert

Top 10 at 10: Japan to fire up printing presses; 'Banking time bomb'; Default for Greece?; Dilbert

Eric Sprott concludes that that nothing has changed, with the neutron bomb just waiting a Dubai-type event for everything to go back to Lehman levels. HT Gertraud.

Judging by recent comments by finance ministers and central bankers, it is clear to us that they have no plans to address leverage in their regulatory proposals, and until they do, we would advise that you invest in bank stocks with extreme caution. Don't say you weren't warned

3. Not too big to fail? - It seems the big four Australasian banks are very big, but not big enough to be included in the list of 30 big institutions that need global supervision. The FT reports that regulators are earmarking 30 for special treatment.

Thirty global financial institutions make up a list that regulators are earmarking for cross-border supervision exercises, the Financial Times has learnt. The list includes six insurance companies "“ Axa, Aegon, Allianz, Aviva, Zurich and Swiss Re "“ which sit alongside 24 banks from the UK, continental Europe, North America and Japan

4. Deleveraging is unstoppable - Australian economist Steve Keen at DebtWatch has another epic post on the issue of deleveraging, including plenty of useful charts. It's well worth a read. Here's a snippet and my favourite charts showing how deleveraging is going in Australia and the United States and how much further it has to go.

That huge government stimulus has attenuated the severity of the crisis, and led to positive growth figures in many countries"“most notably Australia, which recorded only one quarter of falling GDP versus a norm of 4 consecutive quarters for most of the OECD. But it still has not addressed the cause of the crisis"“the excessive level of private debt, and the transition from a period of decades in which rising debt fuelled aggregate demand, to one in which the private sector's attempts to reduce debt will subtract from aggregate demand. For that reason, I do not share the belief that the GFC is behind us: while the level of private debt remains as gargantuan as it is today, the global economy remains financially fragile, and a return to "growth as usual" is highly unlikely, since that growth will no longer be propelled by rising levels of private debt. Having driven demand higher every year since the 1990s recession by rising and rising faster than nominal GDP, private debt is now falling and reducing aggregate demand. This is deleveraging at work, and it is the force that governments are trying to resist by boosting their own spending as private spending stagnates.

5. Helicopter seeking missile - US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a reappointment hearing in the Senate on Wednesday night. It looks like it will be a cracker with the mood filtering through to Congress about how unpopular he has become. Yves Smith at NakedCapitalism details the campaign building against Bernanke.

When CEOs preside over disasters, they are fired. Captains go down with their ships. And Bernanke needs to be replaced. He was a major architect of the policies that created the crisis. He ignored signs of the severity of the developing crisis and failed to prepare for obvious dangers, like the collapse of an investment bank. He has turned the Fed into an off-balance sheet funding vehicle of the Treasury to circumvent Constitutionally-mandated budgetary procedures. He has fought all efforts to examine the central bank's conduct in the rescue operation. Before, during, and after the crisis, he has put the interests of banks ahead of those of ordinary citizens. He needs to go. Tell your Senator that this vote matters to you and he needs to vote no on Bernanke. Enlist the support of like-minded colleagues and friends to deliver the same message. Keep it simple and to the point. Bernanke has failed at his job. The US public deserves and needs better. Please sign http://StopBailoutBen.com/

6. Top Global Thinkers - The high brow Foreign Policy magazine has, however, put Bernanke at the top of its Top 100 Global Thinkers list.  Apparently he saved the world from another Depression. Nouriel Roubini makes it in at number 4. 7. Bailout nation - Barry Ritholz wrote the excellent book Bailout Nation and runs his Big Picture blog. Here is a video of one of his recent key note addresses. All of the videos from the 45 minute address are here. 8. Stormy Port - One of the angles on the Dubai default story is that DP World is the ports owning arm of Dubai World. It has ports all over the world, including the flagship UK development DP World, FTAlphaville reports.

Further evidence of financing problems for one of DP World's flagship developments coincides with mounting concern over the ability of Dubai-owned businesses to service their debts. Last week the developer Nakheel, owned by DP World's parent group Dubai World, stunned global markets by asking to delay payments on its debts. DP World, viewed as one of Dubai's crown jewels and one of the largest listed companies on the Dubai stock exchange, inherited London Gateway from P&O when it bought the British group for £3.9 billion in 2006. The company, which owns port assets in locations ranging from Antwerp to Djibouti, has previously told the Financial Times it has no debt maturities due until 2012. Net debt stands at just under $5bn, but DP World holds $3bn in cash.

9. Default for Greece - Wolfgang Muchau at FT.com looks at renewed talk that Greece may default on its debts or be pushed into brutal cutbacks by the European Union, which doesn't seem to be in mood to cut the delinquent Southern European states any more slack.

The EU's authorities, rightly or wrongly, are more afraid of the moral hazard of a bail-out than the possible spillover effect of a hypothetical Greek default to other eurozone countries. If faced with a choice between preserving the integrity of the stability pact and the integrity of Greece, they are currently minded to choose the former. To safeguard what is left of the stability pact, they are determined to link any help to a country's willingness to comply. Otherwise the EU fears it might lose all leverage over budgetary processes elsewhere in the eurozone. And no country in the eurozone has flouted the pact more than Greece. Here are the numbers. This year, the budget deficit will rise to 12.7 per cent of gross domestic product "“ and this assumes there are no further accounting tricks to be uncovered. Deutsche Bank calculated in a recent research note that the country's public debt-to-GDP ratio is headed for 135 per cent. Gross external debt "“ private and public sector debt owed to foreign creditors "“ was 149.2 per cent at the end of last year. The real exchange rate has gone up by 17 per cent since 2006, which means the country is losing competitiveness at an incredible rate. Had Greece not been in the eurozone, it would be heading straight for default.

There is another country with gross foreign debt above 140% that is not a member of the Eurozone: New Zealand. 10. Totally irrelevant video - Couldn't resist this cat jumping up to open the door video.

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.