90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: RBA turns more hawkish on rates; Dow up as US recession 'over'; Gold hits fresh record; Irish woes deepen

Interesting Graph on overvalued currrencies.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007647/q…

Aymereekan recession ends.......bullshit.

RBA set to raise....fantastic....never made so much so quicky doing so little!

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-20/u-s-recession-ended-in-june-2009-was-longest-since-wwii-nber-panel-says.html

 “In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity,” the Cambridge, Massachusetts- based NBER’s group said today in a statement. “The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.”

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaahaha hahaha   what a load of drivel.

Yes, the notion the US ever came out of recession, or is out now, doesn't stack up at all. From: http://blog.mises.org/13949/nber-recession-ended-last-june/ 

Quote:

"

Just in case you hadn’t realized it or that it doesn’t seem like it, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession ended in June of 2009. You see they got together and had a conference call yesterday and decided that last June the U.S. economy turned positive.

Never mind that the U.3 and U.6 unemployment rates were 9.4% and 16.4%, respectively, in May of 2009, supposedly the last month of the recession while last month’s U.3 and U.6 stood at 9.6% and 16.7%. Real Private Fixed Investment continues to sink. Consumer and business bankruptcy filings continue to climb. One in 8 people in America are receiving food stamps according to Reuters. And in three-quarters of U.S. cities foreclosure filings are on the rise.

According to a CNBC poll, 90% of Americans are worried about the economy. There is talk of another stimulus package at the White House and more quantitative easing from the Fed. Evidently, the wise ones in Washington weren’t on the NBER conference call.

The CNBC poll also revealed, “A clear majority of Americans, 55 percent, believe that the president’s economic plans have made things worse, running up the deficit without ending the recession or creating new jobs.

“Only 42 percent say the president’s policies have helped avert a worse crisis and are laying the groundwork for further growth.”

The folks at NBER must know something the rest of us don’t. Even rich folks are unhappy with the way things are going. They first took a hit on their stock portfolios, then their real estate holdings and now the President would like more tax money from them to pay for the continued Keynesian stimulus programs that have lifted us out of the financial meltdown and the recession (except no one realizes it).  "

 INFLATION is pure and simple THEFT by the government

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22809.html

You can either move your capital out of Noddy or stuff it in a long term deposit and risk the damage done by missing out on very high rates which must come. What ever you pick, understand your capital is declining by the real rate of inflation every bloody year thanks to your govt and the RBNZ. Suckers!

What's the next step,Duke asks?

jeez ,duke, that's obvious mate...property here in NZ is going to really start to rock and just power upwards even higher than it did at it's peak in 2007.

You're onto it, Duke, so you lead the way and get out there right now and buy those houses like there's no tomorrows. The banks are bending over backwards to lend money ,i hear, so you'll be right for finance too.

go hard, Duke, or go home.

Thank God for the wisdom of The Duke is all i can say, fellow interest.co.nz commentators....thank the Lord for The Duke !!

It was hardly headline worthy but a decision today to call an end to the US recession was a green light for equity investors.......lead by well-known and highly respected New Zealand investor called The Duke.

The decision by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which dates business cycles in the US, seems a tad out of date. The bureau declared the end point to have been June 2009 - that’s right, more than a year ago.

hey apparently there's a conference this week on our energy future and what to do with our revenues. has anybody heard of this? any news from it? all i heard was the very end of an article on RNZ but would love to know more.....

think this may be what you're referring to VL...but it was last week...or maybe it's on it's way here?

http://www.econference.com.au/Financial-Review-National-Energy-Conference-2010.html

maybe this one?

http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/126978/petroleum-potential-be-studied

ya gotta point there,Duke?

goodness,gracious me...wally and the duke are having a cyber-punchup now!!

settle down you two....here eat this!..it's fresh in today

Economists have wound back their expectations for New Zealand’s recovery, in step with the central bank’s view that it will raise interest rates at a slower pace to nurture a fragile economy.

New Zealand’s economy will grow 2.8% in the 12 months ending March 31, according to the NZIER Consensus Forecasts survey. That’s down from the 3.2% expansion forecast in the June survey. Growth in 2012 was trimmed to 3.1% from 3.3%.

Why get caught up in fruitless arguments whrn you can't change people's world view??

Once someone has created a set of beliefs about something they will continue to filter all information in relation to that world view, and that is particularly true of opinioned people who like to blog all the time.

Good fishing round these parts I hear, Dukey.

Talking about meaningless drivel..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22857.html

No - “The Duke” stay here. We need people who see things different. Wally behave – no more senseless swearing words to each other.

 Here comes the inflation.......

 "...insurance premiums are expected to rise in Marlborough over the next few years as a result of the huge number of claims made following the Canterbury earthquake.

Marlborough Financial Services adviser Ross Frater said the company had been told an increase in insurance premiums was likely and insurance companies would be tightening up their practices significantly.

"Insurance companies across the whole country will be affected by the earthquake," he said.

"The cost of Christchurch will be passed back to everyone." "

http://www.stuff.co.nz/marlborough-express/4149790/Owner-expects-house-will-be-demolished

anyone who chooses willingly to live in marlborough esp.blenheim deserves to be inflated!.

of course, premiums are going up for all of us as we pay the piper for the chch e/quake..but it works in reverse no matter what cataclysm occurs in whichever area of our great country.

did you know the fire services are largely paid for by the insurance co's?.

jeez, she's slim pickings on here today.

Bloody hell- who is going to pay rising rates- taxes, insurance, grocery, mortgages etc. ????

Most insurance premiums are rising. With worldwide Climate Change events on our door-steep I’m wonder how much longer people can afford to pay for ever rising premiums – a real dilemma I think.

i understand, Wally, being that i am from nelson originally....just remember that "paranoia is a japanese word for goodbye" and stay calm...and throttle back on the crazy talk..serves no useful purpose, me ole mate!

Read of the day - a ducal must:

the automatic earth (the most recent posting)

an excerpt:

"The main critique of this essay is that the viewpoints described above have a fundamentally flawed perspective on our current economic predicament. Whether it’s the left or the right, the free marketers or the socialists or many of the shades in between, the mainstream consensus is one of desperate hope for a rapid return to continuous economic growth, low unemployment, relatively cheap finance and rapid consumption of natural resources".

The last bit is the key.

Thankyou Bernard / Amir : I'm back ! Cheers for the help .

Mist a great stoush between the Duke & Wolly . Winston Churchill was right , sleep in til noon , let everyone else get on with the fighting , then spend the evening downing a quart of whisky ...............There's a leader we can all emulate !

Hey Bernard : You say that the Irish gumnut are trying to raise a trillion euro ............. trillion ? Another rocket ship to the sun , maybe . They learnt the lesson from the Bogdon O'Keefe mission which burnt up ..................... gonna go up to the sun , this time at night ?

Poor old Wolly ................can't even spell his own name right ( says one who did just that on his school cert. English exam paper  1976.............. I passed ! )

I'm fascinated with the time the vast majority of posters on this site comment, is anyone willing to admit to posting during work hours?( Apart from Bernard ) Wolly would have to be self employed..................?

I think what Wolly is trying to say but struggles to because of that classic kiwi bloke mentality (wouldn't want say exactly what I feel cause it might lead to some form of genuine emotion that could be regarded as weakness)................issss......He is honestly concerned at the direction New Zealand and the rest of the western world has taken. Capitalism, consumerism and Democracy are now in ICU and greed and self centred leadership are to blame.

 

I would like to say more but it's my turn to do the dishes, by the way I'm a tough guy too.

I didn't mean people to beat up on Wally, the point I was simply making is that he is so entrenched with his line of thinking, nothing is going to change that, so no point getting into a fruitless stouch. The flip side to the coin is the likes of  Ollie and he is equally convinced with his world view and you won't change that either.

Both can't see the reality is probably somewhere in the middle of the 2 viewpoints

Wally has a lot to contribute but he gets it all tangled up and it comes out like a cross between fred dagg and john.a.lee...

.i think he feels at home here on this site so i guess we just have to accept him like the naughty ole boy that he really is and just pat him on the head and hope he'll get back in his box..but he's o.k !!

considering he comes from blenheim.

I fel with Wally. As we are all experincing the way the world is going is not good - the majorite of people  are stubid, not interested, not edicated not even wiling to learn. They believe the world is good and yes this is frustrading.

So, a minorite of people you, me and Wally have a big task edicating others. It is almost like propaghana consistancy telling people again and again to make them listen, how shity the world realy is. Without us it is very dificult to adchieve that.

What Wally, me and a few others aren’t relizing is on Bernhard’s blog are in fact only intelicent and good edicated people. So it looks like we are stubid. But I can insure you we are not. We are just repeting ourselves to warn others not to make the same misteaks.

By the way I’m also from Marlboro.   

.

Kunst, you can't educate those who don't want to learn. Those who believe that the governments and corporations of the world are working for them, and that the systems we rely on for our well being and quality of life, are in fact free and open, not the manipulated abortions they in fact are. They will never believe otherwise because to do so requires them to, read and reflect internally about some very serious issues. In turn this might open up a Pandora’s box of personal problems which too have been glossed over, and most people are simply not up to dealing with those truths. Being someone who reads, learns and understands as much as I reasonably can, I do sometimes begin to see that ignorance can be bliss, even though it is unacceptable to me, yourself, people like Wolly et al, there is just no point beating the same drum continually to them.

That said, keep the updates and information coming, because I, and many others enjoy it and understand what its about. I do not enjoy the useless slagging matches such as today between Wolly & Duke, they reduce the site to farcical at times.

I absolutely agree with you. I personally miss the participation of other bloggers on some interesting and important issues. I particularly like the politically independent, fresh, informative and also amusing  contributions of many.

You wrote: I do sometimes begin to see that ignorance can be bliss. Hmm - I think I learned something.

It is the utter frustration felt by the fool who tried to tell of the potential collapse of ....take your pick...a stadium roof...a footbridge for Commonwealth Games participants!....an economy built on waves of credit, BS and greed....and the fool is ignored...indeed the fool is laughed at for what does the fool know...he suffers from too much education...too many memories.

I do wish I had cut a message into the Tawa in the PMs office when I worked there...but what to cut!