90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: OCR hike seen delayed until early 2011 after weak GDP; Serepisos defaults; US v China trade tensions build

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: OCR hike seen delayed until early 2011 after weak GDP; Serepisos defaults; US v China trade tensions build

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that economists are now expecting the Reserve Bank to delay its next hike in the Official Cash Rate until the end of the first quarter of next year.

This follows weaker economic growth figures for the June quarter out yesterday showing New Zealand's GDP grew just 0.2%, which was well below what economists were forecasting. See more here.

The New Zealand dollar fell and wholesale interest rates (swap rates) fell. See the interactive chart on swap rates below.

But there is one bright spot on the horizon. Fonterra announced a strong profit result and firmed up its payout for the 2009/10 year and its forecast for the current 2010/11 year.

It also detailed lower debt and a higher retention from its payout.  See more here.

Meanwhile in Wellington, property developer and Phoenix owner Terry Serepisos faces legal action from Canterbury Mortgage Trust (CMT) over unpaid interest payments on his Century City development, BusinessDay reports.

ASB and South Canterbury Finance are also owed money by Terry Serepisos. Canterbury Mortgage Trust is also chasing Christchurch developer David Henderson for unpaid monies.

CMT froze its NZ$251 million fund in mid 2008 and reported provisions for bad debts of NZ$46.8 million for losses in the year to March 31. See our full Deep Freeze list here.

Overseas, the US Congress will consider overnight a bill to retaliate against China over currency manipulation, upping the ante in an increasingly tense situation over America's big trade deficit with China.

Also overnight, China banned exports of rare earth metals to Japan, trying to pressure Japan to release a boat captain imprisoned in a maritime border dispute.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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oooh, i say, me luuuvlies..facebook has crashed globally...i predict a future in babies in 9 months...what will the desperate and the vacant do in the meantime?

where's Wally?

Up and running again now. :-)

OIO get to see May Wangs Court documents in spite of her objections


i bet Natural Dairy are regretting using her as a front person for their attempts by stealth to take over the NZ dairy industry..we  may be gullible and polite but we're not stupid...or is that a sort of garbled oxymoron.

never had this trouble when i was a blogger at Huffington?

But aren`t we stupid.Not only May Wang but former primeminister,Please?

In our case ...PonderousB it is a paradox rather than an oxymoron. We are good at being wise to people noticing we are stupid.

Paradox?   what you get with a double-barrelled shotgun.

Not the way I shoot PowerD....last time I tried that I ended up on my ass (shooting from the hip) and deafened some ducks.

   Barack met with the Chinese premier to suposedly discuss the low Wan..The day after Neten Yahu met with the Russian president to discuss Iran..How much time have they given the Russians and Chinese to pull their civilians out of Iran?..Has Barack given the Chinese an assurance that their oil will resume after the attack? Or did he say " if you dont Raise the Wan then you can get stuffed."...???

Well....I don't think I could have got that much closer than a recent post...

Click go the hammers.....sweat beads form ...while number crunchers carry on blissfully unaware as China's bubble nears it's first real taste of a prick.

The Yuan is undervalued  and China's position is one of blatant provocation.......our cousins across the ditch will be required to position themselves however untimely...we had best do the same or at least start to give it some real thought... 

Hold that thought...The president of Iran gave a diatribe at the UN yesterday..saying among other things that 7/11 was a construct to hold americas grip on the middle east..the Eu walked out with America and israel..Australia and New Zealand followed and left him at it....I think we all know the rest.... Any furthur research on my part wont alter any oucomes...just to say that reading an Israeli Blog..It seems reservists are being called up,as just about every Isralei is in some sort of resevist ocupation..the disruption to their economy prohibits this unless things get dire. God Bless America and her alies!.

"By the start of January 1953, the offensive against Iran was well underway. Operation Ajax, as it was codenamed, was engineered to axe the legitimately elected government. It would be the precursor of several such crimes against humanity in the years and decades that followed. By temperament and his unbendable ideological propensity to aggrandize the sphere of imperial conquests in the Middle East and grab its oil resources, the choice of Kermit Roosevelt Jr. (1916-2000), a long-serving CIA professional agent, to direct Operation Ajax proved ideal. A fact repeatedly acknowledged by his mentors, the Dulles brothers.

What followed in Iran was nothing short of an inferno. The CIA had joined forces with Israel’s Mossad intelligence service that would go on to become one of the founders and manipulators of the Savak secret police force in Iran. It should be noted that Savak as conceived by Mossad and the CIA was a force that combined the institutional attributes of the Nazi Gestapo secret police and the SS military fighting units. Thousands were deported, butchered and disappeared. That was, however, a non-issue for the yellow corporate press. The repression bore striking similarities to Pinochet’s Chile, save that it was on a far vaster scale. The entire nation was blanketed by Savak, which became the highest-paid and most privileged thugs of the Shah’s Anglo-American-dominated empire. 

Israeli premier David Ben Gurion ecstatically proclaimed that Israel would henceforth never cease to enjoy easy access to inexhaustible and cheap supplies of oil. The oil may have been cheaper but it was now drenched with the blood of the Iranian peasant/worker resistance."

As a student of Iranian history you might enjoy the above article anonentity, and our clueless UN wanker has a tanti and walks out of the meeting.


Kiwidave the atrocities perpetrated by ...all...walks of men upon other men are well documented if somewhat coloured to meet the approval of the History recorder...

There is nothing to be gained.......for me personally.....in demonizing those I may yet have need of... to protect my way of life (such as it is)... and who have in the past answered the call for my protection albeit in their interests.

The Coral Sea Battle  was one England had deserted us for....Australia , New Zealand and the wider Pacific would have been over-run If not for the Americans .

It's kinda like having an ugly Mother... Dave.... she may not be much but she's the only one I got .

If anyone that posts here is upset by my not being anti American.....save you cuticles...I'm comfortable with it. 

I think that's a little unfair on the poor old Poms, Christof. At the time of the Battle of the Coral Sea, Britain was reeling from its defeat at the hands of the Germans on continental Europe and in North Africa, and its largest military defeat ever (even to this day) had just been smashed on it by the Japanese 3 months earlier with the loss of Malaya and the fall of Singapore. 100,000 British and Commonwealth soldiers – the whole bloody army who otherwise would have helped to protect us - lost! The reason they didn't defend us is because they had nothing left to defend us with! Otherwise I agree with everything you say. I have had the privilege of living and working in the Unites States and based on my real-life experiences there, I have a lot of time for the Americans - and not much time for cringing leftist Kiwi-revisionist-flunkies wearing GE free organic hemp sandals and sporting pretty flowers in their hair.

I do hope the last firing was not at myself....David...I am sorry if my statement offended any good British person who would have wanted to take part in our rescue....but I am obliged to report the facts as those who were there saw them....... please do not confuse my name with  any political lefty leaning.......and hemp is for smoking only.... good luck to you David.

Actually, Singapore fell because of inept planning. Prince of Wales and Repulse ditto. The only thing the Brits were good about, was they had more men between the foe and the oilfields, than were in France pre-Dunkirk.

Churchill was 2nd only to Fisher (first Lord pre WW1) in understanding energy was the key, and that oil was the most concentrated energy. Both wars were won on supplies of oil, and the USA became a superpower from it's own internal supplies. And slipped irrevocably post 1970, as it had to import more and more.

History - as Hunter Thompson so beautifully put it - is hard to know because of all the hired bullshit.

Your last sentence suggests that you, if you were a writer of history, would write bullshit.

Too much endemic skew in your baseline.

I'm not a writer of history (thank god) but I stand by what I wrote as being correct. And your suggesting it isn't doesn't make it so. Maybe a tad too much arrogrance in your baseline, darling.

   I know the past is a terrible country..but most of us in the West have lived a whole lifetime in peace..If it wasn't for America,we'd be speaking Japanese.I know they aint perfect but they are the best we have.If youd lost relatives in the Holacaust you'd probably tend to overreact if someone says that you are vermin with no right to exist.

Yes kiwidaave.. a good article,very apt for the times i'd say.

I say, I say...the standard of the Queen's English is frightfully below par here..what the ferk is that poster above called " anonentity" talking about....Netan the Yahoo, indeed..and as for that Wan?

well, two whites definitely don't make a Wan?

ask May Wan-g !

revalue now or be damned, Barry O!

LOL sorry bad glasses and new computer..Ive beaten myself with a wet bus ticket and appologise profulusly.

Now... now.... PonderousB you got the gist of what anonentity was saying I'm sure.

Like you closing though....that about sums it up..... save to say the threat is not direct ...yet...simply to stifle energy supplies ex Iran...cause uncertainty....etc....but I would not underestimate their (U.S.) willingness to act.......The Cornered Rat...the Nothing to lose syndrome is becoming more apparent by the day.......while China's revaluation would diffuse the situation for now it would still be seen by China as a " Loss of Face" not to mention a certain amount of control being diminished.

Yep the big boys are flexing some muscle here.... but I'd say only one is really willing to take a swing...... 

this site is scary...bloggers who apologise?

amazing but spooky...what next ?

polite PI's?

They're around, but not around here. See 'em on a street corner near you crying "buddy can you spare a dime?"

The impolite ones put up the rent and defer the maintenance.

Anyone got a grip on the damage to GDP this spring storm will cause...and what about the quake...are these two due to arrive together from statsnz...or will the storm damage be around for a couple of years....

Looks like a second dip in the poo to me.

i just got a big pile of money in my a/c from the SCF trustees so i'm off to chase some girls half my age and get trolleyed.

life? just a 'doll" to be taken out and played with when bored?

Don't chase Ponderous one .....it's unbecoming of your new status.....just stand downwind and flick through a pile of hundies....they'll be along presently .... be sure your near cctv you know just in case she's a tad stronger than you .......or something.


He's go tit the wrong way round.

The better ones are chaste

Maybe PowerD....but then who's got the time to dirty them up all over again.....there is no substitute for experience.

Wolly, In my area we have had to face a series of weather systems that have shocked even the hardiest. We have had drought after drought, often lasting right through winter. Then this winter nails us. Its going to take years to recover around here. The stock shortage is chronic,there is no fert going on, costs continue to climb.  In this area farming has all but collapsed. The meat industry is going to feel it big time especially once herd rebuilding starts. Im buying cattle and they look horrible but Ive been away and Ive got some free draing country I can keep them on and a pile of hay.

 I dont think we will recover in this area in under 3 years. Export receipts will take a big hit, and its going to take years for them to recover.  Mean while, the  interest paymets leaving our community will  be very destructive in the short term, as any money left, heads for Aussie.

From our own farm perspective Wally/Wolly.  Prior to the storm we were ahead of last years production.  Month to date figures show we are now below.  I expect we will settle somewhere between 10-15% below last seasons overall production given the on going nature of the weather.  So this will negate the 11% forecast increase in Fonterra payout.  However, it is often the autumn that makes or breaks a dairy season, so until then it really is crystal ball gazing as to how the season for us will pan out. What some folks don't realise when talking of the Fonterra payout is that we already have been paid 93% of the payout for last season. The remaining 7% is probably already tagged by most farmers.


Welcome to AGW...



Friday's email from the local R/E agent.

"... agents in many areas report that they have been inundated with people wanting appraisals for their homes. ... Spring traditionally brings more activity but there is a lot of uncertainty in the market right now... QV also say property values declined last month and commented that sellers will have to accept that houses are staying on the market for longer."

 "All things needed will cost more, while all things desired will be valued less."



When things get this sad...i'd say a "Command" economy is waiting in the wings.Because the BS. Boys are getting laughed at.Marshal Law three months out?..mabey less.

Marshal law?

You might mean martial law, from latin martialis,
Mars - Mart - God of war/warlike activity.

It's Friday YAY..!!! ...........................c'mon cheer up Wally.....this week in honour of Gummy Bear Hero's south east excursions I offer this little curiosity.


   I went to the doctor while I was on holiday in Bangkok recently, to get my testicles checked out.


While the doc was cupping my dangly bits, she said, "Don't worry, it's normal to get an erection during this kind of examination."


I said, "I haven't got an erection!


She replied, "No, but I have!"







haapppyy holiday.

Hope your cheque bounced.

or something did.

Oooooooooooooh , that hurts ! On my way through security in Manila Airport , the guy ( ? ) reached up a little too vigourously and cupped a handful of eggs , which I weren't smuggling . ............ . Still blanch at the thought of the experience . [ apologies to those of a nervous or queasy disposition ]

Thought provoking article in addition to some comments above regarding a possible attack on Iran.

Is the nuclear power plant in Iran targeted by a computer bug?


Petrobas raised over $70b in what the BBC says is the largest share sale ever.  Demand was such they could have sold twice as many shares as were on offer.  Still plenty of $ around. No link to the tv item on the website yet.

Some are starting to get the fact that energy is the lifeblood of everything else.

So, second to gold etc, they'll see it as a safe bet.

Unfortunately, their system wasn't built with permanent recession in mind.

Curser to home,

just checked the kiwibank account and my SCF bond has been repaid plus interest.

Still waiting for my debenture to be repaid. 
The debenture had the GG and the bond did not.

Typical, reward the risk takers before the prudent savers.


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