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90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Aussie dollar neared parity vs US$; US dollar wobbles ahead of key IMF 'Currency Wars' meeting

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Aussie dollar neared parity vs US$; US dollar wobbles ahead of key IMF 'Currency Wars' meeting

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the New Zealand dollar nudged towards 76 USc in overnight trade and the Australian dollar rose to near a 27 year high of 99.6 USc as talk swirled again that US money printing would weaken the American currency, sparking a fresh round in the 'Currency Wars'.

However, US jobs figures showing jobless claims hit a 3 month low in September helped bolster the US dollar slightly later in the evening, nudging the New Zealand and Australiand dollars back down again.

But the main focus is ahead tonight on the 'main' figures for US employment, which are the non-farm payrolls. If they are worse than expected then currency markets will lock in the prospects for a second round of quantitative easing or money printing from the US Federal Reserve as early as November 3.

Also markets are focused on key IMF meetings in Washington over the weekend where the turmoil on global currency markets will be the main topic of discussion. There has been plenty of chatter from the various country's leaders in the run-up to the meetings.

The key issue is whether China will agree to revalue the Yuan higher vs the US dollar and other currencies to reduce its trade surplus and capital surplus, thus removing the major imbalance in the global economy.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told European leaders last night the world needed to keep the yuan stable and he called on them not to join the chorus pressuring China to let the yuan rise.

He said Chinese factors were operating on thin margins and any appreciation would push many over the edge, forcing them to close and send migrant workers back from the factories on the coasts into the provinces.

Meanwhile, IMF MD Dominique Strauss Kahn said there was no mood for a new 'Plaza' accord to shift currency valuations, similar to the one in 1985 that saw the world's major central banks move to push the US dollar down vs the Yen.

However, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said there was a dangerous dynamic developing in global currency markets and he is continuing to push China to lift its currency.

Meanwhile, the Peoples Bank of China deputy governor Yi Gang agreed China needs to do its bit to help solve global imbalances, but that any rise in the Yuan would only be gradual.

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96 Comments

A little, but important war of "cooked figures" is coming also.

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Well I'm doing a Walter here:  but here again is a chunk from yesterday top10 at 10 giving me cause to repeat my post and although I agree with Wally that the BS brigade is hoodwinking the media...more importantly they are about to hijack the G20 crisis meeting in what is no longer a game.

The fuse is about to be lit....with the waterboys less than enthusiastic about doing their job.

I must say Bernard although the top ten at ten went quite some way to show a response to my post repeated here ...you might have at least acknowledged the post and other posts I have made in respect to events now unfolding that were seemingly under the radar of recent weeks.

I banged on about this because (I believe) the so called "currency wars" now turned "propaganda wars of a cold war status" are the turning point of  The Global Vision for the foreseeable future.

This is deadly serious and will have a direct and rapid effect on the well being of citizens in the developed and developing economies.

extract10 at 10.

The comments by Dominique Strauss-Kahn came before the yen fell as a result of the Bank of Japan shifting towards quantitative monetary easing, cutting its key interest rate and proposing a new fund to buy government bonds and other assets.

"There is clearly the idea beginning to circulate that currencies can be used as a policy weapon," Mr Strauss-Kahn told the Financial Times on Monday.

"Translated into action, such an idea would represent a very serious risk to the global recovery . . . Any such approach would have a negative and very damaging longer-run impact."

Repeat post.

 

As I keep saying if QE was a plan it was a shit plan yes..........? but the above statement goes someway  to find out why.

Overview...The Fed printing  and further talk of printing is causing havoc now on a global scale... reflected in the recent currency strategies adopted by affected parties to what probable outcomes...?

In an effort to force China to revalue the Yuan...? I don't think the Americans are that naive and further had reckoned on China holding firm....to what probable outcome...?

I would suggest America is still pursuing a unilateral ground zero policy.....if we are going to blow it up and start again we need to take it all down in order to maintain control from the bottom up....

Two objectives  that would need to be achieved for this to "happen" would include ..

.1. the alienation of China by demonizing them as the root cause for failure to "rebalance " developed economies ...in this I think they are succeeding thus far.

2.The decimation of global fiat currencies by means of a race to the bottom while maintaining a foreign policy of... "we are all in this together"...... posture.... in this the evidence speaks for itself.

In a very real sense I think America is waging a war on global economies...that is about control.....while the rhetoric about fiscal stimulus for internal reasons...(which almost everyone thinks is a shit plan).....they are playing a big picture game with high casualty  rates that will give the term "collateral damage" a whole new meaning.

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@Christov. The destruction of the USD$ is most probably "by design" .. it has too many parallels in history to be considered just a coincidence. Japan has been suffering for the last 20 years and is chomping at the bit for a global 'reset'. I'm sure its just a matter of time now.

Best thing is to prepare accordingly, since whatever the plan TPTB here in NZ will be going along with it.

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   The Russians have fled Iran..Terror warnings have been issued,,and its a Bombers moon tonight!...The Global reset might involve a bit more than we think..High level talks are going on between North Korea and the South....Why are their lots of Chinese troops on the Korean border?..Not a lot in the media. But a lot of stuff going down.The sharemarket,and currencies might go south very soon.

  It appears two Russians have been arrested for Espionage,as the Iranians think that they might have planted the Stuxnet worm.This caused the rest of the Ruskies to book their flights back home pronto.To sumerise...The Isralies were going to do Iran by themselves,as they had run out of patience with Iran supplying weapons to their enemies,and a nuclear capable Iran wasn't an option..They told the Yanks that if we do them (The Iranians) by ourself we will have to use Nukes...The Yanks said we and Nato will help...So the Yanks supplied the latest x band radar with American operators on Israeli soil,,Saudi Arabia has allowed Israel to use its airspace..ditto Georgia..ditto Azerbijan .If the Iranian President dosn't walk through the door of diplomacy very soon,which isnt looking likely,it seems the firework show might be lit very soon.

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That ...Matt S.... is where I've been going with this for the longest time here and have been suggesting to anyone prepared to give the idea some note ..... to position themselves accordingly for fallout shelter if that is possible.

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Apologies in advance about my ignorance but since I've had very little time to read up lately, would you care to go into more details about the "collateral damage" mentioned in your post above and the need "to position (our)selves accordingly for fallout shelter"? Just not sure what I'm supposed to shelter from!

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Elley in the event of a return to a cold war position from the USA whereby direct interference by American Foreign Policy......and it's Allies  on Global trade positions and terms.. the Americans will have to be completely open to '" Collateral damage" both at home and abroad financially at first....lowering living standards even further than perhaps being experienced in America right now.......followed by the real possibility of a confrontation it does not bear to think about yet.........if the GOP are returned...consider it a very real possibility.

In terms of fallout shelter...I guess what I am trying to warn of here is that anyone who has major investment on the ground in China should have cause to at least consider how precarious that financial exposure and position  would become without some meaningful resolution between China and the U.S.(and the rest) over the issues in front of them.

I think  China has an option to play ball.....but I'm betting the Americans are sure they wont...

In terms of positioning ourselves...that will be decided for us by big brother across the ditch.......this is not a situation where we can say "no thanks, we don't want any today."

I hope that helped.....I have clarified a few points throughout the thread ....apart from banter with the scamps. 

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Thanks for this. Definitely something to ponder over...

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Christov said: Well I'm doing a Walter here.

 Idiot Bush said once: “You Have To Keep Repeating Things To Catapult The Propaganda"

 Well, I feel the same way - I’m doing the same thing.

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Sorry.... Walter..... see comment further down....don't quite know why it did not post under reply..? I think they are messin with me .

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We need more Gold .......... Run faster , throw bigger , cycle the goalie , shoot he messenger ................ c'mon Kiwis , more Gold Medals in India to bolster the GDP . The medals are made of pure Gold aren't  they , not full of tungsten 'like all that stuff in Fort Knox ?

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Interesting musings there Christov. One must assume the US authorities have some sort of plan, and this is as logical as any I have seen. Lets hope currency wars are not a prequel to much worse.

 

Bernard - I am surprised you havent mentioned the staggering data which came out overnight regarding the UK housing market (Halifax data showing a 3.6% MoM collapse in prices). A cool 6,000 pound wiped off the average price in a month. It has set alarm bells ringing throughout the UK.

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And from our " Only in America " file comes the news that high profile lawyers across America are desperately trying to get on an elite panel of 12-15 lawyers who will represent plaintiffs in the BP oil spill . A judge will select the successful lawyers . And thousands of writs have already been filed against BP , Transocean , Halliburton and others . The plaintiffs are local fishermen , restauranters , hotel owners , and private property owners .

BP has already set aside $US 20 billion for damages ....... the lawyers are circling the fat 30 % fees to be had ........... let the feeding frenzy begin .

[ As an aside ........ the guy with the shovel and bucket , is making slow progress cleaning the oil  sludge out of the waterways . Anyone wanna volunteer to help him ? ]

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The one check and balance to the free market excess left....the courts...

Good I hope BP goes under...

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You are indeed ..........seeing it........Iain.....in the very least I am expecting preparations for a return to cold war conditions.....prior to a direct offensive....the posturing of  nations in the coming months will signal alignment  of choice.....and the pressure to choose is truly being applied  downunder to those that matter.

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MD of the IMF , Dominique Strauss-Kahn has voiced the need to avoid a worldwide currency war ............ and he's chosen his side , by backing US Treasurey Secretary  Timmy Geithner in calling upon China to accelerate re-valuing the yuan peg against the $US .

Impartial as ever , IMF ..... The GFC , all China's fault then ?

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Probably not from China's perspective GBH.... but by political persuasion alone China will not win the propaganda war on that issue.

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and the IMF is based where?

I think they fail to get it.....no way is China kowtowing and taking this on the chin because the west says so...

China is now, inarguably a peer...so the first world can no longer send a gunboat to beat up the naughty and uncooperative chink....

In terms of MAD, they are saying that China is locked into buying US bonds, debt, its only doing so to sell good there, prevent it selling goods and why not then sell off the bonds/debt and blow the US up....China would emerge the winner....the USA a 3rd world backwater...it has in-adequate resources....

regards

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I agree Steven China will not shift position..... but as I said I seriously don't think the Americans thought they would ......and have banked on it as a post in the ground from which to anchor the propaganda campaign .

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Steven in regard to the gunboat line ( even though amusing) that is not the tactic....this... until unbearable provocation is reached will be about alienation and direct interference by American Foreign Policy in Global Trade Terms.

The calling in of IOU's by the U.S.A. on a different level altogether other than money ...and yet all about money.

Fact....Australia will oblige.........irrespective of any input from the U.K.

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Actually gunboat is how I think the US thinks, no i dnt expect a real gunboat....if you will total arrogance of the US...as you say telling the Ozzies what to do...same thing as send a gunboat....and would OZ do the dirty work? Im not so sure....OZ's mining boom is tied to china staying hot....what exactly does OZ need the US for? look atthe FTA theysigned, they got screwed over....it would squeeze OZ between a rock and a hard place....depends on how logically the Ozzies think...and to what level...and if that level even matetrs/applies anymore.....

regards

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Steven I did not actually think you did mean gunboat........The Australians....are...part of an alliance that has little to do with money....but is all about money in the long run....they will comply...see my other posts through here and get  some info on the Coral Sea Battle ...the IOU big time remains......  Cheers

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Another sign of stress of the world economy is the fact of how many nations/ companies are currently suing each other. Globalisation and free trade will be very difficult to maintain. Export businesses for NZ will be increasingly more complicated.

This is another reason why I’m always advocating of building new segments in our economy,  example - planning, constructing and maintaining our own infrastructure needs in order to have a balanced economy.

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I hear tell one of the National electorate MPs very recently told a group of farmers that the NZ 'subprime' was the agricultural sector!....what do you lot make of that?

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Probably the first line of exposure as the outside to in ripple theory takes effect.

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Not far off....

Look at the Cramer case... how is this not a NINJA style lend? 

regards

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steven : Cramer who ? The guy from Seinfeld , Kramer . Or the Mad Munny lad from CNBC , Jim Cramer .

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I meant no disrespect to you Walter but I can see how that might be taken .....I have read any number of your threads and found merit in you ideas and ability to think outside the straight-jacket....world we live in.......I was probably suffering mild frustration at the time of posting.....

I think somewhere along the line I pissed the big guy off......maybe when I evaluated his performance with Bollard....? ah dunno but there you go uh..?

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No you don't  Christov – I’m a great believer in myself and in my philosophy in general. Over many years my predictions have became and are becoming mostly reality and I thing my general description of our economy and in correlation, proposals for solutions are very sensible/ useable

But, like so many others here asking questions - hmm – will those so called important experts – economists, politicians, bankers etc. ever listen to us ? One of the reasons why I’m repeating myself.

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fair enough too Walter....just keep doing what you do ...I'll mind my manners in the future.

Cheers.

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God - now it is me in trouble! Sorry about that Christov – I always thought you are running a very successful translating business in Wellington.

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........ how successful was his translating business  if he couldn't figger out wot you're trying to say , Walter ?

 [ Ziiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnnng ! Feel the burn , ooooh baby . ]

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My we are in good fooling today GBH....ya gotta laugh aint ya..! bastido i just thought looking back at the opening of the post how Walter could have interpreted that as a jibe and sought in no uncertain terms to correct .............any.............potential........misunderstandings......before  we rush the front stairs of  the Hive.......speaking of which just how the hell are you gonna manage that from Panay Bay ....?

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As you are  our venerable leader , Count of Christov , I'll be behind you as you storm the Beehive on your Fergie Tractor ............ and when  the parliamentarian security guards fire derison at the New Gumboot Peoples' Revolution ........... I will be behind you all the way buddy ,...........  about 5000 km behind !

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Well I only have a couple of Segways for me and Walter and they have stair issues....so it's the last run up the escarpment on foot I'm afraid.........

The munitions fund-raiser did not go as well as I'd hoped.......but I've managed to obtain a medium range tennis ball thrower....and  used note of menace once handed to an ANZ bank teller ....it's not much I know but fortune favours the brave.

At  5000k you will no doubt be looking out for a long range missile that may have been carelessly left under a coconut palm in the bay there...alert me if you find one and.....I'll warn Cunny to get out of the building through the usual source.shhhhussh (B.H.).....not long now.

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Rogie's fiery talks about our horrorbale politicians, I think he should be definitely our verbal Warrior. He needs to be dressed in a knight’s armour and armed with a long helle(n)barde. The only problem 109kg don’t quite fit - probably. Maybe the only solution for  “Fatso” is in fact “Fergie” the tractor.

 

"Viva the Revolution" 27th November 2010 Saturday 2pm Babylonical Garden Wellington.

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109kg you say Walter....well......    If he could gain 40 or 50 kg..we could disguise him as Brownlee and git real close if you know what I mean.

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgJ3YjAhix8

yeah corret - Rogie could be the guy still standing- poor Brownlee ! - but typically polis.

I see our "The Viva Revolution" just get's better and better.

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You guys remember Rodney Hide's girth , before he lost all that weight ? Back then , he was the trim one in the family ............... Now he's the stick ........... And given his announced marriage to Miss Croome ( 31 )  .......... I know who he's gonna stick it to .

[ Now , at 109 kg in weight , and around 109 cm in height ............ do you wanna find me  a suit of armour ,............... or just let me bowl the opposition over ]

........ Just watched the YouTube : Ouch , Walter !

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Congratulations Roger - very impressive great technic too - just eat this guys from a different angle !

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Christov – what do you think ? I have trust in Roger, he’s strong and efficient in his actions to master many of our politicians - just watch the video.

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Now that I would like to see.........Walter I think quite a bit of that sort of thing goes on in the Hive....I was certain I heard the muffled cries of Maurice Williamson  one day when Brownlee was being interviewed................ Ta for the vid ...off to an early Partay.....good weekend to you.  

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Maurice deserves to " go out "   'like that ...... ..[. or to " go in " , to be more accurate . ....]...... How to hold the slippery sod still , whilst jumbo Gerry sits down ?

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I think he may have crawled up there after running off at the mouth a short while back ....at least he hasn't been seen since.

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With respect why would they listen ? You are not part of their programme, not privy to knowing what that programme even is. The major players in the world care not for anything or anyone outside of the cabal. When men spend too many decades and generations looking inward trying to control and manipulate, it would be hard to imagine what that would do to the mind set. It would become something very dangerous and twisted, the results are for all to see in the deterioration of the planet we live on, and the systems being destroyed.

Don't take it personally, you can repeat all you like. If it makes you feel better, and imparts solutions and enlightenment to the blog, consider it a job well done. Waiting for it to be picked up or moved on is fantasy....

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Don't disagree with you on that at all LLyodM1..............I am a little confused as to what I'm waiting for ....my input is pure speculation based on Historical events and human nature.....the latter will dictate policy....the numbers will always be arranged to fit the policy not the other way round. ....that is presuming your referring to the opening post at the top of the thread.......I fantasize about the usual stuff.........waiting to be a voice from the wilderness is ....not....... one of them.

If you are referring to Viva the Revolution I think you would need to go back to the original Cunliffe interview to get the "gist'.

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Re: David Cunliffe : Don't call him " Cunny " , I did once  , and he got a tadge stroppy with me .. .............  Never met a socialist yet with a sense of humour , which is kind of funny ,  when you realise that their entire belief system is a joke !

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The USA masters only have until the mid term elections to do their  worst. I think the elections may signal a very different direction for the USA. What we may be seeing is the present masters going like hell while they have the power.

 As far as rural debt, all I know is the income is not there to pay the debts, and if you add the tax onto the capital repayments, its way outside the ball park even at record payouts. WE need debt destruction,we need to be freed from the pain being caused to our communities by all the income being paid as interest to Aussie banks. Debt destruction is coming I just don't know the details but Im sure the details are discussed in the halls of power, with the banks as the most important party. If its any help it appears that around me values have halved and the NAt bank openly discussed values halving again to around $250  a stock unit, If the fert keeps getting cut out of the budget stock units per hectare will fall as well.

 While rural subprime may be a worry I still believe its peanuts compared to the meltdown that could occur if house values collapse. Had a cup of coffe in my little  rural town saw 2 Chinese with big cameras taking photos all over the place, maybe a scouting party.

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AndrewJ.....the administration will  be of little consequence to "the shaping foreign policy" moreover the Republicans have the stomach for it and appetite to match,

Their internal unrest will become a desirable launching pad to find a common enemy and focus that anger outwardly with prejudice.

As I said on many occasions back to doing what they do best.......propaganda is the event where the Gold is a foregone conclusion. 

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"going like hell"  Not from where I sit....the democrats seem if anything to be bending a bit or seem lost / unsure what to do while the GOP are dug in and not budging nad have done so for 2 years...going to hell maybe if the GOP get in.

Im kind of suspecting that the GOP will get in i think enough Americans are that stupid, at which time the they will I think freeze up the Fed Govn....freeze up any QE plans and throw us very fast into the greatest depression ever....nice.....I dispair.......

Rural, dunno, I do see that the land values look hugely over-valued in terms of output (income) .....someone please explain why and especially given the above that wont be corrected.

Housing...........for me Ive been sane and mostly paid off my mortgage....in 13 Years my house has almost tripled in value.....even if it falls 50% Im still ok its paper money that never existed.

regards

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Tui anyone?

 http://www.odt.co.nz/your-town/queenstown/130491/125m-project-five-mile

 "A deal to put a sports shelter on the border of Queenstown's failed Five Mile development is not a sweetener to ensure a new $125 million, 38,000sq m retail complex at the Frankton Flats site gets approval, outgoing Queenstown Lakes Mayor Clive Geddes says"

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Hey Rob Alloway , if Allied Farmers is such a grand enterprise , as you berated the NZX , why don't you accept scrip in the company in lieu of munny . Based on today's price of 2.3 cents , your $ 400 000 salary  nets you a whopping 17 million shares in ALF . 

As I recall , the NZX rescinded their earlier  promise to include ALF in the NZX50 index ( Feb. 19 2010 ) . And you got on your high-horse that based upon your modelling ALF deserved to be NZX50 included .

Well Rob , what about it , back up those fighting words ? The munny or the bag ............ hmmmmmmmmmmm ?

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Nice work GBH....like to see that Headline the weekend Herald......oh yes I would.

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Seen " curtis " lately ? Soon after the re-listing of ALF , with it's expanded 1.9 billion shares sloshing around the NZX , my master  baiter " curtis "  claimed that at 2 or 3 cents he'd buy some !

Where are you buddy ? Step up and fill yer boots me old son . 2.3 cents , ALF has gotta be a bargain ............. yeah .............. right ?

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Wasn't he the poster that claimed you  failed to see the embedded value in the debenture swap, and that there was no way the shares could fall......and that as we sailed though 10cents as I recall.....

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Hello St. Nick : curtis was the guy who poo poo'd everything I said ....... except on the ALF situation . But he equated a lower share price with good value . My belief always was that Allied Farmers was a crash in slow motion . ...... Worthless .

Now that curtis has gone , and stopped incessantly criticising my every post , steven has become my master baiter ........ Go you good thing , stevo !

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Thx. Roger the Cabin Boy ( as Captain Pugwash famously didn't say!)

http://www.snopes.com/radiotv/tv/pugwash.asp

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Wolly indicates that a government MP recently told a group of farmers that the NZ 'subprime' was the agricultural sector.....

Think that could be right Wolly. I asked a relative who is high up in one of the major banks, he's in Risk Management, and he said exactly that, not quite in those words but that's what he was saying.

Their analysis is that residential property prices in NZ  will largely stagnate for some time,  though no crash, but agricultural prices were to come down at least 30%, and sooner rather than later. He had returned from a post in Asia 2-3 years ago and immediately went down to the South Island to see what was going on in the farming sector and noted there were some farms with $100 million mortgages.  He said there was no way they would ever be able to repay. He also said as they did a big troll through property details there were a lot of property that had SCF/ or Hubbard based entities 2nd or 3rd mortgages, and if we had any money in finance companies to get it out.

Think the MP is now only saying what the banks have worked out what is going to happen,and it's already underway. 

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If that is the case then NZ will have to come up with some surt of fix to allow foreign investors in  Farm property. Nothing like the Australian Housing Sector but creativeness is what is needed. Everybody is after farming land and NZ has one of the best available in that part of the world..

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If that is the case then NZ will have to come up with some surt of fix to allow foreign investors in  Farm property. Nothing like the Australian Housing Sector but creativeness is what is needed. Everybody is after farming land and NZ has one of the best available in that part of the world..

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It's Friday..............Yay! it's time for your Friday smile and in keeping with fiscal tightening and the new normal.....................

 

 

 

Morris and his wife Esther went to the state fair every year, and everyyear Morris would say, 'Esther,I'd like to ride in that helicopter.'   Esther always replied, 'I know Morris, but that helicopter ride is fiftydollars, and fifty dollars is fifty dollars'   One year Esther and Morris went to the fair, and Morris said, 'Esther,I'm 85 years old. If I don't ride that helicopter, I might never get anotherchance.'   To this, Esther replied, 'Morris that helicopter ride is fifty dollars,and fifty dollars is fifty dollars.'   The pilot overheard the couple and said, 'Folks I'll make you a deal.I'll take the both of you for a ride. If you can stay quiet for the entire rideand not say a word, I won't charge you! But if you say one word, it's fiftydollars.'   Morris and Esther agreed and up they went. The pilot did all kinds offancy maneuvers, but not a word was heard. He did his daredevil tricks over andover again, but still not a word.   When they landed, the pilot turned to Morris and said, 'By golly, I dideverything I could to get you to yell out, but you didn't. I'm impressed!'   Morris replied, 'Well, to tell you the truth, I almost said somethingwhen Esther fell out, but you know, fifty dollars is fifty dollars!'
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Changed the names to protect the innocents ? That's Allan and Margaret ( Hubbard ) ........ Can't fool me !

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Me,  yes correct analysis of the agricultural sector, simply massive debt.Farm values have got the biggest price plunge coming, already seeing  many farms being advertised with no prices eg PBN, expressions of interest, tender,auction  etc.Nobody can price farms to sell.The Crafar farms deal is in limbo and it is more a case of the Chinese wishing to pull back on their original offer.

All of the major Banks have very large exposure to rural lending and this is going to hurt.

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Thanks Realist, that is my observation as well. The banks are flat out refusing to loan to farmers or would be farmers beyond 50% equity and the books have to stack up as well.

Thanks for the 'Friday Funny' Christov. You got a +1 from me.

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post x2

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If farmers can’t pay the mortgages now how were they ever going to pay it?, commodity prices are getting back to pretty good levels, mortgage rates are still at pretty low levels. What kind of risks were they taking, and why is it my problem? If anyone needs to worry about it, it’s the banks, where was their risk management? I don’t see the worlds population getting any smaller, in fact bigger by a billion every 12 years, and they’ve all got to eat. I don’t see food prices going any where but up. I saw Jim Rodgers on TV the other day saying he advises buying farms and into agriculture right now. For NZ it’s the last time you want to be selling the farms off.

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 China will keep the pace, buy Greek bonds to support the Euro and secure a mkt for their manufactured goods... I feel the Chinese are like two steps ahead of the rest.

The IMF will come empty handed from the meeting. I would turn my atention to what is happening in Japan, they are in serious trouble, their currency apreciation is pricing their factories out of the American market , how much longer can Toyota, Cannon etc keep producing at a loss?. If the Yen continues to apreciate several Japanese manufacturers in the USA will have to close  taking the unemployment rate over the moon... but the US  keeps beating the devaluation drum so I can assume that they don't care about their levels of unemployment. 

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Bloomberg: “You need” austerity, said Greenspan, a paid speaker at the event. “We’re going to have to start to cut” from government entitlement programs, he said, adding that reducing the budget is better than raising taxes in closing the U.S. budget deficit.

That's just bloody typical, tax cuts for the well off, austerity for everyone else and this from the fricken  genius that helped cause the whole debacle in the first place.

I need a drink.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a._H7ZmqxJaE&pos=4

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yeah.....loser.....but that wont work....too many ppl effected...huge backlash.

regards

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.......... there's a huge backlash , too many people affected , if Kiwidave has a drink ? Does he pilot 747's or summit ? ....

....... bit rude to call him a loser , too ....... always seems a splendid fellow to me .

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Wolly, Me, and Realist - you guys obviously have on fairly good authority about the collapse of agricultural prices.  Interesting that the Banks don't see a collapse of house prices.  May be NZ has stopped the boom and is managing the situation now with residential prices stagnating (actually down from 2007), whereas in Australia they have continued to climb - in Sydney 18% over past 12 months.  Election year and RWC in 2011 will see some economic boost in NZ, may be this is a factor in house prices not declining that much next year.

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RWC? And what if they get the same response, crowd wise, as Delhi? Is there still stimulus, then, or just a residual large cost? Who knows where the world economy will be this time next year.

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looking dire...

http://www.epi.org/publications/entry/americas_fiscal_choices

Holding up house prices, I dont see it...another flat or declining year if we are lucky.....say -5% or worse...

regards

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Bernard has run up the Red Flag , and joined the Marxists .... As heard on RadioNational this afternoon , on Jim Mora's show .

I am a very sad wee Gummy Bear , to realise that is is true , and that you've pledged to walk on the dark side , from here on in .............. So sad . Very very sad .

R.I.P. Bernard's neutrality on fiscal affairs .... Tribeless , the Duke , & co. were right .

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Bernard is nothing like a Marxist......typical for a libertarian its either black or white....same for tribeless etc...there is no compromise or middle ground....which funnily enough is where most ppl are.

What the libertarians have enjoyed at interest.co.nz is a platform giving them way more access to mainstream than any other platform they might hope to occupy....

When I look at the political spectrum here I see virtually no "marxists" or anything similar....at best we have some ppl left of centre a bit.....certainly the balance point is I think firmly to the right of centre and pro-business....

regards

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He called himself a Marxist  ! Those were his words , not mine . Go to RadioNZ and listen to the first part of the panel discussion , after 4 p.m.

........... poor dear lost and deluded soul ............. we pray for your salvation Bernard !

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A marxist or someone who realizes we can't put our head in the sand forever.

So called free market based capitalistic economies like Japan and the US are doing some very un free market based things lately, and it will have an effect on us whether we like it or not.

All that money sloshing around that's getting printed is going to be looking for a home to go to.

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GBH - Bernard may well be bouncing around a bit now, but what you see is someone intelligent enough to understand that the mantra he'd believed in for 20 years, was a hoax.

That takes some guts, but you can't expect it to be a clean-cut thing.

He'll be evolving for some time yet, and it may well be that events outpace that process.

He's still light years ahead of you, Tribeless etc.

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The lights are out , behind the iron curtain of Marxism .

This " evolving for some time yet " sounds 'like he is going backwards from a lovely capitalist butterfly into a grub ugly socialist caterpillar . No longer free to fly and soar .............. grounded ! ............... and " events outpace that process " ............. is it just me , or do socialists really talk bollocks all the time too .

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PDK,

        good attempt to raise the level of discussion.  If you persist GBH might get out of the 1950's (or is it the 1970's) and have a wee look around and work out what is going on.

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But I have had a wee look around , and that is why I'm crying into my Gummy-Bear soup . We have lost one of the more reasonable economics journalists ...... to the clutches of central planning ........ and I'm bubbing big tears over that , 'cos after only a brief fling with capitalism in the '80's , NZ is miring itself into welfare debt yet again . You guys aren't paying your way in the world . Yet are borrowing $ 250 m./wk so that National can honour Labour's election bribes of 2005 .

And Bernard is now siding with government-knows-best .......... they jolly well havn't , if the past 50 years are any guide .

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Wonderful outcome!  "Ireland has pulled off the remarkable feat of outright deflation ....without setting off violent protest, or even strikes....Head of Ireland’s Industrial Development Agency, said wage restraint has largely reversed the damage .....labour costs are expected to fall 13pc viz-a-viz the eurozone from 2008 to 2011. Office rental costs have dropped nearly 45pc. Dublin has fallen from being the world’s sixth most expensive city to 33rd."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8049212/The-hi-tech-miracle-rescuing-Ireland-from-a-banking-crisis.html

 

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Some of you people "above here" are 30 years behind the time of politics – in modern times calling people Marxists – left – right – central - capitalistic  – libertarians – Jesus  people - wake up – the world changed forever.

Aren’t you realizing in educated people, most of us, depending on the situation are some of each elements. That’s what I call readiness for progress.

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Nicholas- have you tried to buy RWC tickets in the recent ballot, they are as rare as hen's teeth already. I'm rather hopeful that travel agents may have snapped up lots and may be will release some if available closer to the games next year. Won't be anything like the current fiasco in the Commomwealth Games

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"Won't be anything like the current fiasco in the Commomwealth Games"

Seems the Indians are staying away in droves.

Perhaps a "debate" between Paul Henry and the Indian wrestling champ would spark a bit of interest.

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Not a fiasco, muzza? Tell me about "Party Central" then! And I don't know, but you may be on to something re the travel agents. If they don't sell them to overseas travellers ( our dollars is high and getting higher against the pound and euro, making travel here more expensive etc), and you get to have a better pick, how's that good for our 'export' industry of rugby? That's our own money going around inside the country, and us paying for all the devlopments that we hoped 'they' would pay for through the ticket sales.

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I personally enjoy the Games and attended the 1974 and 1990 Games which were great, especially the 1974 one.

Difference with these Games is that seems the locals have little interest in most of the sports on offer. With regard to RWC, I am amazed as to how difficult it is to get  tickets, there are a huge amount pre-sold, so augers well economically for NZ this time next year
 

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The sight of Dick Taylor breaking clear with 350 to go in the 10k will live long in my memory....a great moment.in games history. 

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......... and all of us wearing that great Kiwi icon of summers' past , the bright orange coloured terry towelling hat ............. happy days..........

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Fancy that , my former employer Fairfax has been rapped over the knuckles by the Commerce Comission . It seems that Fairfax claimed that the 10 cent increase in the price of the Dominion newspaper was due to the GST rise . The actual increase in the paper's cost was 3 cents , because of the GST change .

Am I surprised that Fairfax misled  yet again ? No ! From the boardroom in Australia all the way down the plethora of managerial levels ;  lying , bullying ,  being pig ignorant and misogynistic are de rigueur .

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I've missed a few posts, Arty. Have you become one of our PLTD's? Will Johns Road never spy your smiling countenance again? Have I wrongly assumed you were just on hols to see the rellies? And as importantly, was that you that took the discount on the million asking in Loburn.......

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Johns Road is 5000 km away ........... and I'm figgering on maintaining that distance , St. Nick . Here on Panay Bay , I still listen to the NZ radio stations on the computer ( big rugger match to kick off in 80 minutes ) .

Wish someone had offered me $ 740 000 for my little plot in Loburn ........... For once , Canterbury ran out of cashed up drongos !

The boss got really ratty when I pulled the pin , at unFairfax . ........... After 10 years with the nerks , it seems that they didn't totally despise and hate me after all . Bugger me . Who'd have known it !

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As Joni Mitchel warbled " You (Fairfax) don't know what you've got till it's gone....". Unlike you, who know excatly what you've got! Cheers.

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Very kind of you , St. Nick ....... The next round of Shiraz is on me !

Any idea why Chicken-Little Hickey is so late with the Friday Top10 ?

My guess is that he's finally run out of bad news ......... Been drawing too heavily from the well of woe and despair ........ run it dry ................... Jeepers Bernie , you might have to present some good news pieces for a change ............ Count to ten ........ deep breaths ........... c'mon big fella , you can do it !

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and 100.....there you go Bernard......that's how to get a 90 at 9 on the fly.....

I just bet that got you the weekend off...! I'll pick up my lattee....when I check the Collection box. 

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