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RBNZ's Bollard sees GFC aftershocks; warns of 'very slow' rebalancing in NZ; but sees positive medium outlook on Asian protein demand

RBNZ's Bollard sees GFC aftershocks; warns of 'very slow' rebalancing in NZ; but sees positive medium outlook on Asian protein demand
<p> RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard spoke at a Deloitte tax conference</p>

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard has delivered a speech on "The recovery, the aftershock and the economic future" that warns New Zealand's economic rebalancing is progressing very slowly as aftershocks ripple through the global economy in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis.

Bollard, however, was more positive about the medium term outlook for the New Zealand economy, pointing to strong demand for protein from growing Chinese and Indian middle classes.

Here is the full speech below.

The recovery, the aftershock and the economic future

The Global Financial Crisis has been the major economic event of our time. As we continue through the recovery phase and encounter unexpected aftershocks it is timely to reconsider what this means for New Zealand.

The Global Financial Crisis was not as harmful as the 1930s Depression, but from that event we learnt that recovery to economic normality can be a slow, fragile, uncertain process with temporary set-backs and aftershocks.

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis has been different from the 1930s: it was widespread and internationally synchronised, it hit deep, but not long. It originated from the banking sector, spread virally across a number of sectors, hit the housing sector particularly hard, and was ultimately arrested by active government stimulus.

The Global Financial Crisis finally troughed in mid-2009 in an internationally-synchronised way. There was general relief as the macroeconomic data became more reassuring, and the very large contractions in economic activity ceased.

At that stage our focus turned to what the recovery would look like. The history of major financial crises shows a consistent pattern emerges: a long period of building up stresses (averaging a decade), a rapid unwinding, then an equally long period of gradual recovery.

Following regular post-war business downturns that were not associated with financial and banking crises, economies have traditionally recovered speedily and strongly. Not this time in the West. Instead we have seen businesses very cautious about reinvestment, with scarcely any credit growth. In the US, households have been traumatised by the twin fear of losing their jobs and their houses. We have observed two particular aftershocks to the crisis, neither of which was expected, as countries struggle to rebalance in two distinct ways.

External Rebalancing

We are seeing an external “aftershock” playing out across the globe right at the moment with big movements in exchange rates to cross-rate extremes not seen for decades. The need to rebalance externally has been driven by the record build-up of international imbalances that created the pre-conditions for the Global Financial Crisis.

In short-hand the East was building trade surpluses, savings and high reserves, while in the West the opposite was happening. In late 2009 we saw an initial rebalancing, driven mainly by negative forces: a reduction in spending by Western consumers, a reduction in Western imports, and a deleveraging of Western balance sheets, rather than a shift to an export-led growth recovery.

However the forecasts suggest this rebalancing may not continue, and we have not yet reduced these international imbalances to sustainable levels. In the US these concerns have been manifested in weak labour and housing markets. Up to 30% of mortgagees face negative or near zero equity in their homes and long-term unemployment is stubbornly elevated, with intense political pressures on monetary policy to provide relief. This has led to further moves to inject liquidity in unorthodox ways, referred to by the financial markets as “QE2”.

So far these policy measures have had a major effect on equity and bond prices, on capital flows and on exchange rates. They have depressed the $US, generated a new carry trade in $US, and resulted in significant new capital inflows to emerging markets. The US economy remains weak, with housing and labour markets mired as both households and businesses seek to rebuild impaired balance sheets.

This requires a policy prescription of very easy monetary policy. But the growing currency tensions risk unleashing trade conflicts, a development that proved very costly in the 1930s. Many countries expected to have their recovery and external rebalancing aided by a softer currency, and when this did not happen they became very concerned. Chinese – US economic tensions have risen, as the US sees the RMB staying unnaturally low, a result of the tie to the $US, with much rhetoric but a political reluctance to revalue.

The Chinese response has been to increase regional convertibility mechanisms, but only to allow minimal RMB appreciation. As this dispute escalates, there is a risk of Congressional intervention and anti-dumping actions. In the Eurozone, tensions between Germany and the peripheral PIIGS countries mirror the China-US relationship, with Germany running large current account surpluses via very strong exports, buoyant growth and the euro currency. Hurt most are the Swiss (who have been trying to intervene to depreciate the Swiss franc), and other peripheral European economies outside the EMS. Japan, with its own economic problems and a strengthening yen, took major unexpected unilateral action in mid-September: a massive (2 trillion yen) sell-off of the Japanese currency.

This has had some short-term effects on the value of the yen, but it angered other G-7 economies whose currencies are themselves at risk. In addition it has implications for other East Asian currency regimes, where countries under exchange rate pressure such as Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea and Philippines, could be encouraged to intervene. Other countries such as Malaysia that have been trying to liberalise, may find themselves under pressure to re-impose capital controls.

Internal rebalancing

The second aftershock has been a sovereign debt crisis resulting from the need for countries to rebalance internally.

Financial markets pressured overstretched Western fiscal balance sheets and the price of debt rose dramatically. Countries needed to rebalance internally: domestic demand needed to take over from public demand.

Governments have spent hugely on fiscal stimulus, liquidity injections, and bank support through the crisis. There was a broad expectation that the private sector would take over from public sector stimulus to once again be the engine of growth: businesses would restock and reinvest, and the household sector would regain confidence.

But, as local economies slowed, the costs of stimulus and rescues, low tax revenue and high demand for social spending hit government fiscal accounts hard. The resulting crisis first burst out in Ireland and the Southern European cluster of countries, collectively labelled the PIIGS, where there had been persistent over-stimulus and loose fiscal management. This profligacy meant that these countries were faced with a premium on their debt (see figure below) and the complex pan-European political and monetary institutions struggled to provide guarantees to bolster this situation, while also ensuring these countries took appropriately tough domestic fiscal actions.

Spurred by these events, financial markets have now also focussed on some more major G-7 sovereign risks, in particular in the UK, US and Japan, where demographic ageing adds pressure to major government funding burdens. With the recession delivering lower tax revenue, higher social spending, and banking sector liabilities, projected government funding requirements in these countries now look very tight, severely limiting the room for future support to (increasingly unorthodox) monetary policy.

Thus private demand in Western countries remains too weak to provide real impetus to the recovery. This reflects excesses prior to the crisis, the current outlook and the limited willingness and limited ability of fiscal policy to come to the rescue. Of course this has significant imbalances for the New Zealand outlook. Demand from Western countries is gradually improving, but still not very encouraging.

The sad US housing story is bad for our wood exports, the UK fiscal retrenchment is hurting our UK tourist numbers and the fragile Japanese recovery restrains our food exports. Our own internal rebalancing is progressing, but very slowly. Substantial fiscal stimulus helped cushion the economy over the past few years.

The fiscal deficit will need to be closed and private demand take over public sector support. Moreover, it appears that some of the fiscal deficit is structural and unwinding this support will subtract from growth for a number of years, with our housing market remaining weak, consumption impaired, balance sheets fragile and businesses remaining cautious. Private demand is still impaired.

What is yet to come

However at the same time the strong growth in East Asia and Australia emerging markets has been very beneficial. These markets were much less affected by the financial crisis, have themselves enjoyed strong export prices, and are now being buoyed by growing domestic demand. Russia, Brazil, energy exporters, South Africa and the Southern American countries are also in this group. They are developing a much stronger geopolitical voice for the G-20.

The Chinese and India stories exemplify this – not by any means a simple picture, but here are two economies with continued strong export demand, government building of infrastructure, and evolving domestic demand.

These economies have strong connections to regional growth that will benefit New Zealand indirectly over and above our direct trade exposure. Other medium term implications look particularly interesting for New Zealand.

Post-war evidence shows that as emerging markets develop significant middle classes, there is a commensurate increase in demand for protein, increasingly animal-based. That has been the pattern across a number of countries with different cultures in different geographies. Many of these countries are limited in expanding their own food production, by lack of suitable land, lack of water, increasing climatic volatility, and high oil prices.

A recent Nomura report argues that real food prices will need to rise significantly.

New Zealand is not a huge food producer (not being among the top half dozen producers of any of the world’s key food product groups). However our food exports (as a % of GDP) top the world, and we are the best placed in competitive terms in Nomura’s food vulnerability index. Food trade is volatile in the short term, but these trends are very positive for New Zealand’s terms of trade which have picked up significantly over the last decade. The other important positive pressure is from Australian growth.

The Australian mineral boom is now well documented, and expected to continue, if not intensify. The drivers in China and elsewhere look reasonably sustainable and as a low cost producer, Australia appears better positioned than most to weather any reduction in Chinese prices. The strength of the mineral boom has meant a strong Australian recovery and a very strong AUD currency.

Both of these outcomes are driving strong Australian demand for food and manufacturing exports from a more competitive New Zealand. We are a primary product supplier to Asia, but we need to see ourselves also as a post-primary supplier to Australia. So the medium-term outlook looks favourable. In the meantime we see New Zealand continuing its recovery.

The aftershocks identified so far, and other aftershocks yet to come, mean that this recovery could yet be a prolonged process. 

Updated with full speech.

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Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

58 Comments

Once again the good Doctor awes us with  his innate ability to state the obvious........or more directly to tell us nothing we didn't already know.

If part of the job spec was keep it bland ...keep it boring ...and don't say things to surprise the"Market" then they have got the right man at a paltry price.

I'm still working on a super alter ego for him.....but I'm finding it hard to get a Costume understated enough.

More snore from the floor...thanks again Bolly.

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Try this for an alter-ego Christov

It's David Haywood's report of a trip to Canberra with Bollard ... surprisingly fictional... although the good governor did mention Haywood's 2010 RBNZ Annual in his book...

http://publicaddress.net/5143

So anyway, me and Bollard are flying to Canberra for the International Monetary Policy Conference. We’re sitting in business class – which, in my opinion, is basically like being in heaven – and we’re getting well-and-truly plastered.

We start feeling a bit musical somewhere above the Tasman Sea, and when the pilot announces that we’re about to land in Canberra, Bollard launches into a tune of his own composition entitled: ‘Still Time for Another Vodka.’

cheers

bernard

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Ta a good giggle....!

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How can people in charge like Key/ English/ Bollard/ Brash etc. endowed with so much responsibility, forecasting what’s happing with the NZnation, while some worldwide economic, financial, political, environmental, etc. events are almost unpredictable ?

Do those people not understand the “event correlation” between NZ and the rest of the world ?

 Bollard and others just sound like weather- forecasters – just not accurate enough or is there much more behind we (I) don’t know ?

What will happening - Kiwis are hanging their cloths out to dry and get caught with possible hail – again and again.

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Just like a giant Pendulum, first it goes up, way up and then it comes back. Shit its coming back fast, quick get out of the way its rebalancing.

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I wonder whether Brock at Kiwibank has his staff explain Bollard's statement to the morons who turn up to 'buy' a mortgage to chase property that is falling ever faster in value regardless of the sprooking efforts of the banks, RE mob, poodle media and other parasites.....somehow I think not.

What Bollard is holding back from saying, as far as I know at this time, if how long this 'new normal' of very slow rebalancing will drag on for......my money is on another ten years minimum and longer if the second crash takes place due to Beijing deciding to poke Obama in the eye and throttle back on its growth rate to control inflation caused by the morons at the Fed.

Throw in the very real prospect of an aussie property crash, impacting on our own tottering pile of muck and the return of thousands of workers to discover no new jobs in Noddy.....wonder how stats nz will hide that bulge!

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FYI updated now with full speech and charts.

It's a nice summary of the current state of play globally.

I sense Bollard is saying we should be ready for a long slow grind out of this but we'll be OK in the end because the Chinese and Indians will buy our dairy products and meat.

Your views?

cheers

Bernard

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And that is the point Bernard ...post any speech we are all left to....sense....interpret....read into....and ultimately thanks to you and others make it more interesting in a forecasting way.....when in reality the poor fellow can hardly get up there and say well look I really haven't got a clue but ....wait and see...is the mantra I live by.......we are after all a small ponzi...er nation and as a consequence subject to greater market forces....and so as situations arise we will have to cope with them on a ...do nothing ...and wait and see if it fixes itself basis.

I realize I'm being paid handsomely to provide you with a great deal of data and very little insight as to where that data is taking us as a ponzi...er nation economically speaking but if they were looking for insight they should have offered Gaynor the job......but I fear his directness would have had the "market" in a tail spin at the first sign of reality...er I mean bad news. 

Any hoo keep your head down.....if your already down stay down...if your not ..calm down and.................Do nothing wait and see is the best policy.....

This transcript was made available courtesy of Fonterra...(saviour of our Nation) 

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The word is SHALLOW, meaning slow, dull, monotonous, repetitive, etc, ect.

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This idea that Asia is going to drink all our milk defies logic,once again I post this

 

 

Lactose intolerance is the inability to metabolize lactose, because of a lack of the required enzyme lactase in the digestive system. It is estimated that 75% of adults worldwide show some decrease in lactase activity during adulthood.[1] The frequency of decreased lactase activity ranges from as little as 5% in northern Europe, up to 71% for Sicily, to more than 90% in some African and Asian countries.[2]

 

Lactose intolerance seems linked to ancestral struggles with harsh climate and cattle diseases, Cornell study finds By Susan S. Lang

ITHACA, N.Y. -- Got milk? Many people couldn't care less because they can't digest it. A new Cornell University study finds that it is primarily people whose ancestors came from places where dairy herds could be raised safely and economically, such as in Europe, who have developed the ability to digest milk.

 

On the other hand, most adults whose ancestors lived in very hot or very cold climates that couldn't support dairy herding or in places where deadly diseases of cattle were present before 1900, such as in Africa and many parts of Asia, do not have the ability to digest milk after infancy.

http://www.news.cornell.edu/stories/june05/lactase.herding.ssl.html
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Meebee if we diluted down the lactose component  by adding a little melamine , milk'll be more palatable to our Chinese friends ?

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The chinese poison us with P, and we poison then with milk. Fair trade?

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Oh my God - milk has a lot more work to do -then.

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Feed the cows P and market it as Energy Cheese.  Sure-fire export winner.

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I think you are on to it AndrewJ, we are living in cuckoo land, ....or is it Noddy land?

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Living in Clover, Ive got a vineyard and Im telling you this industry is the master of bullshit. Bad year well a nice label and several coats of bullshit should do the job. Down south that geen Savi, well its got refreshing grassy character. Without the bullshit a lot of south Island wine is plain green, needs more ripening, hurts peoples guts.

 All the top boys want to do is keep the gravy train going,its what you get when you over pay people, the incentive is to pile it high and deep( Phd) for as long as you can while you strip as much of the money out as you can carry. What you leave behind is someones else's problem like Telcoms experience.

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Found this comment to be interesting and confirmed a number of suspicions I've held about the industry for some time .......I know you would not say this lightly AndrewJ ...as your one of the better researchers.....I've taken it on board and think you have hit upon the new Achilles heel  .......standards...what bloody standards...rip it out and rape the shit out of it  in the name of prosperity.........worth a lot more thought and input.

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  "could yet be a prolonged process," says the Governor (herald headline)

As I thought....the prolonged bit means ten years minimum tops twenty. But now we read comments out from the head of Treasury...clearly he does not agree with govt policy...is this why he has been put up for a shift overseas!

Hypocrisy from him of course...anyone care to take a stab at the salaries handed over by taxpayers to those 'working' at Treasury?

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Bollard's timing is good. Just when tha AUD/NZD is about to take a dive to the lows he jawbones a  rescue for exporters... well done Bolly this will buy some time for another bout of exports.

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While no one doubts the future expanding protein demand in China - remember their first call on protein is for their traditional chicken, pork, fish (farmed ), shrimp, soya beans.

Nothing here for NZ !

Humans are very slow to change their eating habits.

Saw a recent  TV foodie program on dining at a high class restaurant in China - Everything including the wine was sourced and produced within 100 k of the city. A bit of a worry if you choose to reflect a moment.

Of course the MacDonalds of this world will be expanding but when it comes to ground beef, we have Australia and Brazil and Argentina as low cost producers with far more extensive low cost land than we have.

Have a look at commodity prices over 150 years in real US $'s if you think our future first world life style ( Minus ongoing borrowing one day ??? )  lies with agricultural commodities.

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If NZ could produce HORMONE FREE beef, and lamb, and chicken etc and promote it as 100% HORMONE FREE and promote it into Australia, and China it would be on a sure fire winner .. just might take a couple of year to establish the brand .. note .. 99% of the beef and chicken and pork sold in AU supermarkets is hormone boosted except for a small 1% from King Island at twice the price .. and

Further on the subject of Hormones .. refer to an earlier post about Hormone Free Milk .. why isnt NZ exporting this stuff into AU and competing with the AU produced rubbish ..

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Icon: I think that NZ tried this with the USA and the reply was mutted, they could not care less. It seems that meat is meat as long as it tastes like meat and that is the end of the story, And that taste goes back to the caves when we all sat arround the fire no talk of hormones or stuff.

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Hugh - he's an economist. They aren't trained in the real world. While things were on the 'up', they were as reliable as any witch-doctor.

Across the top, and on the way down, as unreliable.

In 1920, there were 1.2 million in the country. Interestingly, the next recession was 1921-2, the next in '26. Then of course the biggie. Interesting start-date.

All you're looking at is a post - Great War (and Flu epidemic) demand for  primary produce. And relative stages in the rape of resources (Cecil Rhodes vs modern South Africa comes to mind).

You have to get 'limits' to get what is happening now (and you're a denier in that regard).

What happens is that you cherry-pick everything, at the beginning. Easiest land to clear. Closest to the port. Easiest rivers to dam. Best soils.

On average, at that stage in your development, you look good, especially against a war-ravaged Europe which had several centuries of nudging up against repeated limits (arable peak prior to the BlackDeath, for instance).

As you progress, in a small finite country, the returns get less and less, offset only (in the span you indicate) by a massive increase in the use of fossil fuels, which hid the underlying reduction of quality available. Steeper/more bony land. Dam-sites further from consumers. Degradation. Pollution. Competition.

David Caygill (he didn't understand that he was talking of limits, but that was what he was doing) talked of 'the cheapest generating option, followed by the next cheapest, and the next, when answering a question as to rising power prices.

He might just as well have been answering you, about rising Local Govt charges. You won't see it, because you don't want to. Caygill is fairly smart in intellect terms, but he failed to see it too. He was elaborating the increase of costs of everything, if not because they were in the 'dregs' stage of the cherry-picking, then because they are underwritten by fossil-fuels, which are in the dregs stage (Gulf of Mexico, etc).

Things will get relatively more expensive now, compared to incomes (it's irrelevant which moves) but they cannot get cheaper.

I've got a froen building on a subdivision outside Dunedin - but all the best (sun-facing, sheltered) sites are long gone. This subdivision is godforsaken cold, but there's nothing geographically left. It's just simple geometry, laid over geography.

Why is is so hard for folk like you, to see?

Usually, it's because the person's income depends of=n the fact not being so, this failure to acknowledge.

One can never read widely enough.

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PDK I also did a part of one Tech paper this semester on thermal performance. Our houses and commercial building actually consume far too much energy and won't be operable as the cheap energy runs out.

Combine this with comments I have posted regarding urban design and I repeat the best solution for NZ is a bulldozer, then start again.

Relating to your comment about best facing sites was the fact that by correct location within the topography, accompanied by correct architectural features, you can raise the ambient air temperature surrounding a house by several degrees. The effect of several degrees on heat exchange, I am sure you are aware, is quite significant. With good design space heating can be eliminated in our good climates, and reduced to perhaps 20% down south.

For commercial buildings there have been some attempts at sustainable but they have a way to go yet. I wonder the effect that this will have on commercial property investors, when the realise their buildings are too expensive to run.

The Hong Kong born professor is well sought after in the commercial world for his expertise. It was really a interesting paper despite the language barrier. He has debunked some of the theories of mould growth and humidity. Germination in fact being the target rather than growth.

Here is an interesting link for you. Look for the page on Fisher Tropsch. NZ will come out of the wash okay I am sure. Might be a little bumpy along the way though:)

 

http://www.fluidynenz.250x.com/

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You're wrong JB it perfectly obvious theres plenty there for NZ.

The McDonalds  is actually a good example. In Indonesia they are selling NZ branded grassfed  beef big macs. They have gone from nothing to our number three market in a year They are also paying us premiums to supply pure NZ angus grassfed beef for their Angus Burger range.

Its not all beer and skittlles in the other countries you mention. Australia has severe water issues, Argentina's beef exports have fallen 50% in a year thanks to drought, a switch to grain and govt policy distortions and Brazil has endemic foot and mouth desease issues. Meanwhile demand goes up and up. This is good news for NZ but as usual the doomsters cry anything positive down.

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SS  

as one who has been  involved at the board level with the profitability of the NZ meat industry what you say is true - but why do we not see the earnings coming through to the processors and farmers.

The whole industry is a dog !

Sheep & Beef Farming & Processing has terrible industry economics - once you take away the capital gains from our Ponzi farm prices.

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JB, Im not trying to defend the past of the meat industry, im mearly pointing out the future looks much better. Whether we're smart enough to fully capitalise on those opportunities is another matter I agree but at least we have a tail wind at our backs.

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Mr bollard maybe being over optimistic but in his position he doesn't really have a choice. We are a small nation and could well withstand the worst of what is most likely to come if we do it right, with food production. I've been pessimestic for many years noting all the factors everybody is raising. BH raised them many many years ago and nobody else really did.  Perhaps the new normal will not be a complete wipe out for us?

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It's Friday Yay.......and you know what that means...?time for your Friday smile.....in honour of the economy ....Bolly....Billy....and the irish.

For his birthday, little Patrick asked for a 10-speed bicycle.  His father said, "Son, we'd give you one, but the mortgage on this house is $280,000 and your mother just lost her job.  There's no way we can afford it." The next day the father saw little Patrick heading out the front door with a suitcase. So he asked, "Son, where are you going?" Little Patrick told him, "I was walking past your room last night and I heard you telling mom you were pulling out. Then I heard her tell you to wait because she was coming too and I'll be damned if I'm staying here by myself with an $280,000 mortgage & no bloody bike!"
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Yes one can see that

 

- the thought process seems very long.

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Walter I spread it out for the deaf.......

have a great weekend.

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..you too. For us another working day - of 7 - but in comparison with the past Switzerland - it feels like holiday.

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How can we trust the explanation of a guy who didn't see it coming, and is now telling us what happened?

Let alone that the explanation itself is a non-explanation, only a description of events.

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Some of you guys here are amazing in your own opinion of yourself, absolutely amazing that you know more then the Reserve Bank Governor.  How delutional is that, must be frusrated that you are restricted to using such expertise on a blog site.

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good work Muzza...the ego posits itself n all that......don't deny being delusional enough to think a spark might start a fire and for what it's worth my office girl can keep books too.

Sometimes frustrated about a lot of things but I've learned a lot here from those that know more than I  and value their comment albeit unrewarded.......yours too from time to time.

happy day to you.......P.s. Bolly's my hobby horse in case you haven't quite spotted it yet.

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Hey Count-of-Christov : I  rated your Friday joke as better than that of Alan Bollard . But Muzza is entitled to a differing opinion .

So Bolly is your hobby horse , huh ? Use more glue , he's coming apart at the seams .......... Some high gloss acrylic would smarten the bugger up , too .

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Hey GBH.......I have little interest in sprucing him up as you put it....I just like riding him is all....occasionally   wit the spurs.....then whip.....then spurs n whip.....then hands heels spurs n whip till he goes right off the rocker......... then we get up and do it all over again  till he comes up a winner.

How's that for flogging a dead horsie.

Anyhoo what's the plan for the weekend in beautiful Panay......gonna move all your unwanteds over to the recently vacated neighbours house....?eh you crafty bugger I know what you did......now if you could just get a small block into Cunny's satchel and hey presto.

you have a good weekend n spend some time on that beach of yours.....better sunburnt than snowblind.

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Half-way through the tanning process ........... Finally got a healthy white colour on me pelt . Hated that Canterbury blue-skin look , that lasts from February to December .

Supervising the 200 peso/day ( $ 6 ) guys , as they construct a recreation hut & ablutions block for us ............ . Oops , there they go , lunch time ( bowl of rice & a pandasal bread ! ) . Amazing !

Back on the grog on December 1'st ........... Counting down the days ! Have a cool one , and think of poor Gummy ............Sober for 6 whole weeks ! The locals are letting me sniff the empty Tanduay Rhum bottles [ in lieu of the lovely white powder , that the Pulis nabbed ] .

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Why have you been off the grog?

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Muzza - another Friday joke - almost better then Christov' s.

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hey Walter I put a lotta work into that...!

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Sorrry Kunst , did mean to exempt you as you obviously have a deeper knowledge and experience in such maters.
 

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Thank you Muzza- thank you ! I appreciate your recognition. Yes- in fact I do in such matters.

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I've been dealing in the busi8ness field as a professional for almost 30 years. Tweaking and hoping might delay things but there will always be a consequence somewhere. Sad that some people have their lives ruined by trusting the wrong people. Lets list what has actually happened

All the retirees and their hard earned money. Poof gone. I have a couple of clients Lost everything almost

Then those who bought unsustanable businesses, even though the industry worked well for years, never a glitch Poof, house gone, farm, got a few of those as clients as well. Not pleasant

Then those who repay 2-3 times the cost of their home over the length of their mortgage

The list is huge

Keep up putting out the truth

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Well said spirk !

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Succinct appraisal Berend de Boer of Bollards comments, a bit like telling us there will be aftershocks after the Canterbury quake......and he gets paid to for this diatribe....all the experts know about the GFC....after it happened.......and they knew why

there is not one econmist  out there that actually has any idea what is going to happen next week .....let alone in 3-6 months time.....yet we pay them ......Westpac CEO  $5.5  mill.....amazing.

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I've gone and listened to Cameron Bagrie, ANZ guy, he is good, not as good as the experts here but next to.
 

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Got a link , or a reference point , to catch up on Bagrie's comments ? ............ Always worth listening to his views ; makes a change of pace from some of the gloomy gusses around here ( " Hickey's Heroes " ) .

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Drowt looming. Economists wakey wakey. El Nina has arrived.... god help nz if its a repeat of 07/08.

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Belle 20 ml this forecast  weekend from the NE , hopefully we get it.

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Just listened to the weather on channel 97 Andrew, they are calling it drizzle now, not rain. Hmmm

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Bugger, its humid like New orleans here, and I felt a few drops 30 mins ago. That big red button may get pushed in a couple of week. Already bailed on the old Ewes.

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Hows it looking down your way? The Bay of Plenty, Central  Plateau, Waikato, and Northland are ....lordy how do I put it....I think everyone is fair shitting themselves, wondering what we are in for. Silage making has gone west. Crops are sitting begging for some wetness. There is a serious soil water deficit now, we need at least 50 mls to make a difference. With follow up. Which could and should happen, as December rains are usually reliable, but at this point it is very worrying.

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All the ridges around here are brown and I just talked to my seed and grain man, he said most of the crops are terrible. The good news is that with stock numbers this low its a good year for a big dry :-)

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Same here on stock numbers, well down,  with a greater proportion of killable stock. That is something learnt from 07/08. The last few hot days have browned off the dairy pastures around this way, production has dropped off apparently, I bet Fonterra is sending less tankers out. I wonder if Bill and Treasury are rearranging their figures. From previous experience they dont seem to take any notice till the til receipts shrink.

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God he's hopeless! worth every penny ain't he?

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yes drought is looming

ice age coming ice age coming

central plateau geothermal for the win

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