Will former National party leader and Reserve Bank governor Don Brash be in a new right wing political party for the 2011 general election? That is the question being asked by New Zealand predictions website iPredict, which is launching new markets tomorrow for whether there will be either a new left or right wing party contesting the election.
Here is the release from iPredict:
Will a new left or right political party be launched?
New Zealand's prediction market, iPredict Ltd, will tomorrow launch new stocks aimed at predicting whether or not a new left-wing or new right-wing party will be launched before next year's General Election. Trading will begin at 8.00 am tomorrow (Saturday 11 December) New Zealand Time.
The Chief Executive of iPredict, Matt Burgess, said there had been significant speculation about the possibility of a new left-wing political party centred on former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and current Maori Party MP Hone Harawira.
Speculation on a possible right-wing party has centred on former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash.
"If either of these parties gets off the ground, they could have very significant impacts on the chances of the Green and Act parties being returned to Parliament next year; the levels of support likely to be achieved by the National, Labour and Maori parties; the result of next year's General Election and post-election coalition bargaining," Mr Burgess said.
"The new contracts will provide an insight into the likelihood of either being launched."
The draft contract for the new left-wing party will pay $1 if a new party is registered with the Electoral Commission by writ day for the 2011 General Election, of which at least two of Mr McCarten, Ms Bradford and Mr Harawira are publicly-declared members.
The draft contract for the new right-wing party will pay $1 if a new party is registered with the Electoral Commission by writ day for the 2011 General Election, of which Dr Brash is a publicly-declared member.
The price of the contracts at any given time will indicate the probability of the parties being established.
The precise wording of the draft contracts will be available for comment this afternoon on the iPredict Forum at https://www.ipredict.co.nz/
app.php?do=forum before they are finalised and launched for trading tomorrow."Wherever possible, iPredict crowd-sources our contract definitions using our forums. Our traders know New Zealand politics and usually point us to aspects of the political process the contract should take into account. In the end, that means more accurate forecasting," Mr Burgess said.
iPredict is owned by Viclink, the commercial arm of Victoria University of Wellington, and operates with authorisation from the Securities Commission. Details on the company and the stock can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz
The company's market has a 90% record of success in predicting future economic and political events.
9 Comments
Hugh, If you mean the coalition is making progress, then I assume you are not referring to taking decisions which have lead to weeks of protests here over the student fees?
Taking decisions would be doing anything they can to reign in the Banks, who caused the current mess, but no they will not do that. Instead they go with austerity measures which are going to damage the country very badly, while the bankers here argue over how much they can morally award themselves as bonuses from taxpayers money which was used to save their insolvent institutions.
Oh yes, the coalition here is really attacking the hard issues! They are as rudderless as NZ, the worlds politics is sinking to new lows week by week, so very sad. At least certain people here have finally been pushed so far they are taking to the streets to show how frustrated they really are. How far can NZ be pushed before the same happens.
It makes perfect sense that Brash would set up a new right wing, nat friendly party God only knows the Nats need it. The current party filling that position is a complete shambles..their leader has shown himself a complete hipocrite, and unable to lead , pick a safe 'Nat' seat, national put up a weak candidate and there u have it..5 new, controllable MPs..easy pesy
I agree Neil. My frustration is where are the younger emergeing leaders of our nation? Surely DB, however capable is another of yesterdays recycled men. When I look at the minor parties in Parliment all I see is the likes of Dunne,Anderton,Hyde etc and the spectre of Winston again looming, Brown and Banks fighting out the Auckland mayorlty .Yes, the greens have a new Gen X leadership team but the rest have completely failed to regenerate. My(probably forlorn) hope is for a new generation of leadership to emerge, and soon. We need it.
Look I'm not going to rubbish DB's understanding of economics or his ability to contribute financially to slow the decline of NZ plc. What I will question would be if a party was formed, it would simply be staffed with the same stained, compromised people whose stench can be smelt all over the landscape of the countries slowing heartbeat.
Is this really going to provide NZ with any real benefit - No chance. What it would do is split the vote away from Act while allowing the Nats to continue on their merry road of destruction minus possibly some of the embarrassment of Rodney and his idiots. The fact DB is tied very closely with the god botherers should raise some eyebrows and questions if he does start up a party.
NZ needs strong non-institutionalised individuals. Where are they coming from.....They’re not coming are they!
Agreed, the biggest problem lies with an uninformed, uneducated, unconcerned public on one side, and on the other the belligerent uninformed, educated yet clueless to reality beyond their own status symbols & protected way of life.
Until people begin to look outwards then, as you point out, the elected representatives, and those who are not, will continue as they are, and have been for decades.
My aim is to force accountability onto those who run our cities and country. It’s a lofty objective, but it can be done. Not on this web site though…
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.