By Alex Tarrant
Four thousand more people left New Zealand to live permanently in Australia in 2010 than 2009, although the outflow remained well below levels seen in 2008 and 2007, figures released by Statistics New Zealand show.
The numbers come against the backdrop of an economy struggling to recover from a recession that ended at the end of in mid 2009, with the possibility now of entering a double-dip recession, after a 0.2% fall in GDP in the September quarter.
Figures yesterday showed New Zealand’s unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 6.4% in September to 6.8% in the December quarter, indicating a labour market struggling to gain momentum.
There were 36,830 people who left New Zealand to live permanently or long-term (PLT) across the Tasman in the last year, up from 32,755 in 2009 but down from 48,452 in 2008 and 41,634 in 2007.
The number of PLT departures was mitigated by 15,842 PLT arrivals from Australia in 2010, giving a net departures figure of 20,998 across the ditch during the year 2010. The net figure was up from 17,962 in 2009, and down from the peak of 35,395 in 2008 and 27,998 in 2007.
In both directions most migrants were New Zealand citizens, Statistics New Zealand said.
New Zealand had a net PLT migration gain of 10,451 in 2010 from all countries, down from 21,253 in 2009, but above 2008 and 2007 levels. Net PLT migration in 2010 was also below the average annual net migration gain of 12,000 over the last 20 years, Stats NZ said.
In 2010, the highest net inflow of migrants was from India (6,300), Stats NZ said.
“This surpassed the net inflow from the United Kingdom, which dropped from 9,100 in 2009 to 5,300 in 2010. Almost three quarters of migrants arriving from India had student visas,” Stats NZ said.
Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted figures show a net inflow of 750 PLT migrants to New Zealand in the December month, up from 620 in November. December inflow was just above the monthly average of 700 since February 2010, Stats NZ said.
Political football
Speaking after the release of the unemployment figures yesterday, Prime Minister John Key told New Zealanders not to lose confidence that 2011 will be a better year than 2010.
"What happened is that there was a lot of confidence in the early part of 2010, but once the financial crisis hit again with particularly the impact on Ireland and Greece, you started to see a position where confidence evaporated quite quickly," Key told media in Auckland.
"Again we come up to 2011 with confidence looking more perky again, and you've got to remember unemployment's a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator, so typically it tells you what has happened, not what's happening in the future," Key said.
"What we see is a lot more energy from the New Zealand corporate sector, we see them looking to employ more people, we're seeing an increasing number of jobs being advertised, we're seeing a reduction of people on the unemployment benefit from the high over Christmas. I think we shouldn't lose confidence," he said.
Labour's new empoloyment spokeswoman Jacina Ardern said the government needed to invest more in research and development, and in increasing individuals' skills to create more jobs in New Zealand and stop the exodus to Australia.
“I think that the exodus of New Zealanders across the ditch is indicative of the fact that in New Zealand we do have low wages and job opportunities at the moment, as indicated by unemployment figures, the job market is pretty poor," Ardern, who is also Labour's youth affairs spokeswoman, said after the Labour caucus reshuffle yesterday.
There was a two pronged approach in getting youth back into the labour market, Ardern said.
"Firstly there’s the issue of job creation generally, and the government could be taking a much more active role in job creation. That’s about research and development, that’s about ensuring that the things we’re doing to stimulate the economy create jobs,” she said.
"The second thing though is about individuals. Making sure that they’ve got the skills that are required to get into work, and that’s probably where our focus need to be for young people currently."
The Quake effect
Following the Canterbury earthquake in September 2010, PLT arrivals to the Canterbury region were up 3% in December 2010, while PLT arrivals nationally were down 3% from December 2009, Stats NZ said.
"Increases in 'natural and physical science professionals' (which include geologists and geophysicists) and 'bricklayers, carpenters, and joiners' contributed to the increase into Canterbury compared with December 2009. There was a 12% increase in PLT departures from Canterbury in December 2010, similar to the national increase of 14%," Stats NZ said.
Economist picks
ANZ economists had expected a seasonally adjusted net PLT inflow of approximately 600 in December, with the annual inflow expected to slow to around 10,000.
ASB economists had said the household sector had remained weak in recent months, partly due to weak migration inflows over 2010.
“The pace of annual net migration has slowed over the past year, reflecting a higher number of departures, particularly to Australia. Meanwhile, the number of new arrivals has also been weak reflecting the slack in the NZ labour market,” ASB economists said in their weekly overview on Monday.
“In the second half of 2010 net migration showed signs of stabilising at low levels, reflecting the recovery in the number of arrivals while the number of departures slows. We expect the recovering NZ labour market will encourage migrants into the country,” they said.
“However, continued strong labour market demand in Australia indicates the upward trend in departures to Australia will remain. On balance, we expect the monthly pace of net inflows into NZ will remain subdued.
“Nonetheless, the inflows will underpin population growth in NZ and thus remove some downside risk to housing demand and retail spending growth,” ASB economists said.
Westpac economists had said net departures across the Tasman would continue to weigh on migration.
Economist reaction
ASB economist Jane Turner said the number of permanent departures appeared to be stabilising on a trend basis, particularly the numbers departing to Australia. However Australia’s labour market was likely to remain relatively attractive, across many different industries and skill levels, which would continue to underpin departures out of New Zealand.
"Over the past year, the relatively strong labour market in Australia has drawn an increasing number of New Zealanders across the Tasman. The December quarter lift in the NZ unemployment rate highlights the divergence in labour market performance remains, and we are likely to see a steady stream of New Zealanders leaving to Australia for the time being," Turner said.
"Permanent arrivals appear to be also stabilising, although remain relatively subdued. In particular, the number of arrivals from the UK and US remains very low, reflecting weak state of the NZ labour market. Nevertheless, while the overall state of the labour market remains weak, demand for skilled labour has started to lift and already firms are starting to confront shortages. This may put a renewed focus for firms looking to fill this gap by recruiting from offshore over 2011," she said.
"The low level of migration contributes to slowing population growth, reducing demand for new housing construction. Indeed, the recent weakness in net migration is likely to be a key driver of low building consent issuance to date," Turner said.
"The domestic economy remains very subdued, with low inflow of net migration contributing to slower growth. The RBNZ is likely to leave interest rates low and stimulatory until the NZ economic recovery has regained traction, and we continue to expect the OCR to remain unchanged until September 2011," she said.
(Updates with political football, the quake effect, ASB reaction, chart)
Net long term migration
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61 Comments
Our economy just doesn’t provide enough decent jobs for NZskilled people in the real NZproduction sector of our industries. Our economy doesn’t make us wealthier as a nation. We have far too many chair-polishers working in the service industry, shelve fillers in warehouses and real estate agents selling houses to each other – just stupid.
Our economy is crumbling, The PM and and a whole bunch of ministers including Brownlee and Joyce are underperforming and need to be replaced - urgently !
In stead of demaning performance these people and in general parliamentarians are still handled by kid gloves by the media/ public.
I disagree....we dont provide jobs for our skilled people because we up skilled them in areas we dont need.....and the areas we do need, espec in the trades we dont have the industry or facilities to train them.
The State/Government is there to predict what the country will need in the next 5/10/25 yrs, and educate the population accordingly.
Take education for instance...its know there is a slump coming up in primary education, 3 yrs ago....So what does the Gov do...fill up the universities with Primary education students.
Take one class starts with about 140 odd students, after 1st yr down to 80, those graduate about 40.....of those 40, 7 get jobs... most of the rest are either voluntary in schools, or waiting on tables...or going to Aussie, Japan, Europe.
How come the uni accepted so many who cant make the grade? waste of resources and student loan money.
On the other hand ...even thu building and construction is down, service industry struggles, try to get or employ a qualified tradesman, be it a plaster, painter, fitter and turner, mechanic?
Try to find someone suitable for an apprenticship...hopless, those with the will and brains are too damn scarred to get their hands dirty...and the rest are basically no hopers filling in time at Pre training centers...and thru attendance the owners of these centers can drive around in their fancy cars...Centers that are basically meant to teach what the student should have been taught at high school....and 9 times out of 10 leave the center no better off than when they left high school.
When we have to import phillos and VeitNamese to milk our cows, have an unemployment issue espec under 25 s around 20%, and 'pre training BS schools rotting the system ..yeah something is very seruiosly wrong..
Like Pollies couldnt organise a P155 up in a brewary....hell if one just forgot about capitl gains gst, tax ..just sorted out the above, the savings to the tax payer and to overseas debt, student loans etc would be huge......add to that a lot more youth actually employed then the retirement issue would be far less serious.
Kunst I disagree with you on reasons, but in principle of what your are getting at 100% with you.
Cheers Steps
Obviously proper development of the manufacturing sector including technical development and research isn’t an issue for ministers, otherwise they wouldn’t allocate interesting orders in telecommunication, energy and transport to foreign companies. This are places where our general NZworkforce should be operating – planning, designing, manufacturing, installing and maintaining – jobs in the billions. Jobs skill which also creates a better environment for our exporters with many other advantages I described many times.
Yes – and the taxpayer is feeding thousand’s of students, which 3 -4 years later well educated leave the country, because there are no decent jobs in Aotearoa.
..and at the same time ministers Joyce and Brownlee are crying for more prisons/ police.
...and hard working P. Bennett doesn’t have a chance for unemployed youths to find decent jobs.
My God – what a "X- Billion $ Loss Economy" muddling along Prime Minister ???!!!
Working hard as a nation – making real money still includes the manufacturing of products Prime Minister - minister Joyce/ Brownlee
"The State/Government is there to predict what the country will need in the next 5/10/25 yrs, and educate the population accordingly."
Change that to: "The market is there to predict what consumers will want in the next 5/10/25 years, and adjust the structure of production accordingly." Then you'll have it right.
there you go again, 3/4 of Indian migrants were on student visas (typically living in small flats and apartments in the CBD, of which there is an oversupply)
Would be interesting to know what proportion of the immigrants would be permanent house seeking people. I reckon it wouldn't be much greater than 50% when you factor in the students, elderly chinese coming to live with families here etc
but oh no the bank economists ramble on about all the immigrants as if all 10,000 of them are PRs needing additional suburban homes
simpletons!
I agree. Arriving on a student visa is neither permanent nor long term - they should be considered in the visitor statistics. It's dumb to include these arrivals in terms of migration figures.
Migration should include arrivals with permanent residency pre-approved + new approvals for those people who arrived on other visas but were granted permanent residency + NZ and Australian citizens arriving/returning.
The Universitys are a gravey train, just another level of beaurocrats clipping the ticket and sitting in cushy jobs such as council people and public servants
Can some one enlighten me....did the Govt ever own the Dairy Industry?If they did when did the sell it off. Fonterra is making a killing with the commodities. Shouldnt the Govt be trying to take a piece of the profits. We cant wait for farmers to spend their milk profits as most are paying down debt. Sorry if that sounds naive....:)
Each year the fees increase, the Unis employ another lot of "admin staff"
Each year more bums on the same courses, surprise surprise Uni staff get a pay rise
The Unis are fighting for the Govt research $, hence are encouraged to get more bums on/in postgrad courses/studys/research to get the $ to pay for the next Uni block construction for more bums on seats......
Basically its a money making industry for the academics, pumping out graduates with irrelevant or non-useful qualifications
Cushy jobs in private industry-depends where you work. My business doesnt have cushy jobs :)
My son in his fourth year at university says it is harder to get in this year and some people who did not do well last year are not being allowed to return. I think you will find staff are being laid off from universities just like all other government institutions.
Wasn't there something about govt only paying out to Unis for students who have passed 50% of their qualification by the end of the 2nd year?
Never having been to Uni myself - if a kid didn't do well in their 3rd year what are the chances of them not doing well in their 4th year? Perhaps that is the reason they weren't allowed back? If so, I think it makes perfect sense.
Good! As one who has taught at University I'm pleased to see that those who aren't up to it are not being allowed to continue. There was nothing more annoying and unproductive than having to pour huge amounts of ones time into post-grad students who were reaching far beyond their intellectual means, and who couldn't see it. Raising the bar will hopefully work well for everyone.
I think you have lots of things backwards...
Fees increase because costs increase...a Uni generally has open books so the students can see the profit margin....unlike private industry....I think there is also a cap on the max % increase per year in student fees.
"admin staff" I think you are majorly mis-informed....At least one large Uni has a staffing freeze and is in fact cutting staff numbers all over the admin/support area.
Unis have some govt research, but lots of reseacrh is private....usually the Uni gets a grant for a fixed term say 2 years so employs a "bum on a seat" for a similar fixed term. The idea is the Uni makes a profit from a grant and the private organisation gets the research it wants/needs, its known as win-win applied research deal. In terms of "bum on a seat" they usually are paid not a lot, and work long and anti-social hours.........
"Its a money making industry" because that's what the Govn wants, the Govn appears to want to assist private industry with less pure reasearch and more applied. The Govn grant to a Uni is fixed on a certian max number of students per year so "Each year more bums on the same courses" simply doesnt hold true, the Uni gets no more above the cap, hence Uni's are restricting numbers as they cant afford to take students for free.
"irrelevant or non-useful qualifications" Uni's are dumping some courses and laying off academic staff...and who's decision is it to go on a course? the student, he or she makes that decision based on a future career....if no one or not enough ppl enter the course its canned.
Who decides how many say lawyers are needed? not the Govn, not the Uni......what do you want Govn dictate that there will be only 1000 lawyers per year? uh, Im sure we dont want to go there.
regards
What a lot of rubbish, most cruzy job I ever had, most NZ academics would never make it in the real world. Work few hours, the few with ability make money off consulting to the private sector, great double dip rort and the vast majority not able to publish at a international level.
Why not restrict the number of lawyers given we have for many years produced per year more than actually practice in this country year in year out. Wasted dreams, resources and only self serving for the universities.
Perhaps you should consider the consequences of going back to the old system, that is, the rich sending their kids to university to kill time before Daddy retires and hands them the business.
There are a lot of hard working people at Univerisities, some whom, I might add, could earn multiples of their salary in the public sector, but who just love the satisfaction they get from helping kids reach their potentials. The idea that univerisites are filled to the brim with overpaid slackers comes only from the heads of the ignorant. Nothing could be further from the truth, whether academics or administers. The same can be said about our pulbic health system, a lot of good people working very hard.
did the Govt ever own the Dairy Industry?
Well sort of..the old Dairy Board
The old Dairy Board was only the marketing arm, it never owned the processing plants:
In terms of industry structure, dairy co-operatives have been part of New Zealand's history since 1871 when the country's first cheese company was created on Otago Peninsula. Like co-operatives all over the world, they were established to create the power that comes from pooling resources.
By the 1930s, more than 400 separate dairy co-operatives were operating throughout the country. They were export focused, and had their own international marketing arm in the Dairy Export Produce Control Board.
The 1930s to the 1960s saw the beginnings of the industry consolidation which ultimately led to the creation of Fonterra in 2001. As technologies in transport and refrigeration improved - for example, cooling of milk on-farm was introduced 1955 - co-operatives began joining forces to become more efficient. By the 1960s, 400 co-operatives had become 168.
Driven by technology and cost efficiencies, the processing industry began to consolidate and by 1995 had shrunk to 13 dairy companies. In contrast to this consolidation at home, internationally the industry's marketing operations were expanding. The 1960s threat of Britain joining the EU encouraged the Dairy Board to diversify, both in terms of product and export markets.
By the 1980s, the Dairy Board had 19 subsidiaries and associated companies around the world. By 1990 it had 40 and by 1995, 80. In a little more than 10 years, the New Zealand Dairy Board became the world's largest dedicated dairy marketing network.
At home, co-operatives began to expand their manufacturing capabilities, shifting from butter and cheese - the mainstay of exports to the UK - to begin investing in the infrastructure to manufacture the milk powders which are an important part of today's product mix.
In 1996 the Dairy Board Amendment Act transferred ownership of the Dairy Board's assets to the country's 12 co-operatives. Subsequent merger discussions culminated in the formation of Fonterra in 2001.
http://www.dcanz.com/nzdi/index.html
"Again we come up to 2011 with confidence looking more perky again"
Confidence where? good news where? Like ireland? Egypt?, Japan? which planet does JK live on?
Same guy who said we would recover quickly.....he's either incompetant, politically blinkered to the extent he's humstrung and cant see the truth, a liar or right.......Im not going with the last one...
regards
how bout you go back to school?
Standard 1 english - the plural of university is not "universitys" it is "universities"
I'm looking for a university student to do a study on the relationship between IQ and one's beliefs in property. Of course we know the answer...
Hi MIA
thnks for nit picking :) believe or not I can spell jst a bit lazy sometimes with the written form
I think that study has already been done three times over by BA students. You still waiting for Mt Eden prices to drop?We may have different beliefs and IQs but reality still remains the same :)
I aint voting goofy and def not pot smoking greens
Regards
Matt no one else could have done any better. Key inherited an economy from a labour government that spend every cent it could to stay in power and so we had no reserves unlike Australia. He also inherited a nation where the average household took on heaps of debt to keep up with the Jones and so they bought the batch,the car,the boat,the tv set,the rental properties,the overseas holidays and the new kitchen.The problem is they generally borrowed it and now it is pay back time and so we have a stagnating economy which is going to slowly grind down more and more until a lot of that debt is paid off and incomes start to increase. One thing I have missed is the horrible growth in everyday costs such as food and that is world wide not just here. What is the outcome going to be. Less activity in the economy and asset values across the board continuing to drop little by little each month for the unforseeable future.
Did anyone see Breakfast the other day, they had a Professor on there who had just spent four years studying the effects of how if someone famous ( music industry) signs a music instrument, then that person (who owns the instrument) tends to play it better.
Now come one...who paid for that.
*HEADLINE*
Interest.co.nz reporter tows website dogma: everything is bad.
*REALITY*
Seasonally adjusted permanent and long-term arrivals exceeded departures by 800.
Up from 600 in November.
Up from the average of 700 since Feb 2010.
In line with long term average.
*OPINION*
Everyone will say: those foreigners (who apparently are no good in this xenophobic country) don't add much (certainly not for housing), whereas the people who are leaving are better paid, more productive people.
But the fact is: heads need beds, beds are finite, and supply and demand will adjust, regardless of how emotionally tied you are to your anti housing, pro "world is bad" mentality.
Suck it monkeys.
Now if we had our 20% unemployed youth milking our cows instead of bringing in imergrants....our youth could buy/ rent those houses instead....and add to the workforce supporting our BBs right?
But instead we bring in imirgrants to support those on the dole...buy the houses.
And things are very rosey..they must be...otherwise the Government would have to get serious, get tough and make those on the dole, not prepared to get their hands dirty, get them dirty....Till then we dont have a crisis, things are not tough...and the future is bright and sunny all the way to the bank...Right?
Dear ........Keyser S.....Suck it Monkeys...? while it may be "pet " phrase you would use on one of your Real Estate buddies it is hardly a good footnote to your argument.....and in fact highlights your obvious frustration.
"Heads need Beds" a ripper for the New R.E. vernacular...... it's better than peek at the sea..
NZ is no country for young men (or women) anymore. Leave if you can.
JK is just a conduit for the Banks and the Remuera Rentier classes and will do nothing do effect the status quo or do anything for the general good. He's part of the global financial elite so what do you expect? He'll get a nice position at the World Bank, BIS or IMF for his good work jamming NZ down the debt drain hole. He's the set up guy. That's what they want.....soften the country up and then grab it's assets when it's weakest and squeeze the hell out of it for all it's worth. Energy, water, food, 30 year mortgages on some bloated piece of cuss so you don't have pay 'dead' money renting. Sounds like an exciting future.
Another little debt wafer anyone?
Most of the other politically indoctrinated beneficiaries are no good either of course. Labour were happy to sell us down the the river long ago to get their power trip. They all work for the Bankers or the FIRE economy one way or the other. They're the ones that ultimately turn the taps on and off on immigration and run the mass media agenda and the cheap trader property ponzi scheme. Doesn't help we're like possums to a headlight.
It's up to us to throw these incompents out and get our ship in order. The trouble is trying to find anyone half decent and honest enough to run a country.......BH or GBH got nothing better to do? Actually GBH you strike me as possibly a bit like Clint Eastwood in a Fistful of Dollars so we might have to leave you out. No offence, you do a fine job otherwise. Votes anyone?
red tape red tape red tape red tape red tape
"Frustrated tradesmen are leaving for Australia for work because it is taking too long to get the massive rebuilding effort in Canterbury going after the earthquake.......
But an Auckland building contractor, who asked not to be named, said he and fellow workers went down to Canterbury, but were "twiddling their thumbs" with no work to do. He said high quality workers were not prepared to wait around." herald
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