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90 seconds at 9 am: 10,000 homes to be demolished; NZ$2.50/ltr petrol?; Greek rating slashed; Gold hits record; Libyan civil war

90 seconds at 9 am: 10,000 homes to be demolished; NZ$2.50/ltr petrol?; Greek rating slashed; Gold hits record; Libyan civil war

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news from Prime Minister John Key that 10,000 houses in Christchurch on liquefaction-affected land may need to be demolished and the residents relocated to safe land.

A simple calculation of the cost of that at NZ$320,000 per property would be NZ$3.2 billion, only some of which would be covered  by insurance. See more here in Alex Tarrant's article.

Meanwhile, the first survey of business and consumer confidence since the earthquake shows confidence slumping to a two year low as the earthquake added to the pain of an economy already moving back into recession. See our earlier article here on the BNZ survey.

Stuff reports an oil expert suggests the oil price could hit US$140/bbl, which would push petrol prices here towards NZ$2.50/ltr. Oil company profit margins are also low at the moment as they absorb some of the higher costs, but that cannot last long. See our interactive chart on petrol prices, oil prices and profit margins.

Meanwhile in Europe, credit ratings agency Moody's has slashed Greece's credit rating by three notches, citing endemic tax evasion and an ambitious austerity plan. Greece responded by saying the decision was 'incromprehensible' and arguing the ratings agency had failed during the sub prime crisis and should be regulated. See more here at Bloomberg.

Greek bond yields rose to 12.25% and most market watchers now expect Greece to default or seek a new bailout. There are also growing concerns about Portugal. The yield on Portugese 10 year debt hit 7.57% and is now over 400 basis points above German. Neither is sustainable. Irish yields are also rising after Germany rebuffed a plea by the new Irish government for an easier bailout package.  See more here at Bloomberg.

More concerns about Libya, the oil price and global financial market stability drove the gold price to a record US$1,445/oz, although it eased back in later trade. See more here at Bloomberg.

Oil, meanwhile, rose to a 29 month high of US$105/bbl in overnight trade, although it too retreated from its highs. Concerns are mounting about an increasingly violent civil war in Libya. See more here at Bloomberg.

The Dow fell more than 1% on the worries about a rising oil price. See more here at Bloomberg.

The New Zealand dollar eased lower overnight.

No chart with that title exists.

 

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7 Comments

No surprises, then.                                     :)

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Bernard

You need to stop quoting WTI as the "Oil Price" as it now is only relevant to the price in the US , Brent (or for NZ a closer "sweet light") price is more indicative of what we are facing.

Neven

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Good point on WTI.

But isn't Brent skewed because it's running out in the North Sea?

MED use Dubail crude price in the chart we have

http://www.interest.co.nz/charts/commodities/oil-and-petrol

That's US$109/bbl but we only get the data from MED weekly. We're hunting for a more regular and relevant indicator.

Any ideas on where we can find it online?

cheers

Bernard

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And here's another one we watch

http://www.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wco_k_w.htm

cheers

Bernard

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Gold and silver think ill start asking for payment in 1oz coins. Our paper fiat is worthless, low interest rates tell me this. Saving paper fiat is a complete waste of time!

 

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Long time no post, looks like it's finally all brewing up into the perfect storm. (Bond failures/Oil supply issues). Hold onto your hats folks, could be an interesting few weeks.

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