Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that New Zealand listed insurer Tower has indicated its interest in buying into AMI Insurance. See more here at Stuff.
AMI has begun the process of looking for new capital partners after the government anounced yesterday a plan to provide a NZ$500 million backstop in case AMI cannot handle claims from the February 22 earthquake in its home town of Christchurch. See our full coverage here on the government support announcement.
See my opinion piece from last night explaining why insurance regulation needs to be tougher.
However AMI CEO John Balmforth told Interest.co.nz in a phone interview that his preference was for AMI Insurance to remain independent as a mutual and that the government guarantee would give AMI time to better assess its capital strength and retain its customers.
"Our preference would be to stay an independent company," Balmforth said, adding the needs of the policyholders were a priority in any decision. He said Clavell Capital's David Belcher had been advising AMI through the process with the government, but that a larger formal advisor was likely to be appointed within a month.
Balmforth rejected claims by rivals that it had underpriced its policies in previous years and had not put aside enough from premiums into capital reserves and reinsurance. He said its reinsurance brokers AON Benfield had reported to AMI's board that AMI's reinsurance was adequate.
He also rejected fears that AMI would use its government guarantee to go out and strengthen its market position in the same way that South Canterbury Finance did after it received a government guarantee in October 2008.
"I don't see AMI going out and advertising the fact that the government is behind us and trying to pick up market share," Balmforth said, adding that government support could be seen as a negative by some policy holders.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank increased its official cash rate to 1.25% from 1%, its first move in almost two years. However, it said the rise was not necessarily the first move in a series of hikes, which saw the euro lose some of its recent gains. See more here at BBC.
The Bank of England decided to leave its cash rate on hold at 0.5% despite signs of inflation. A massive government deficit reduction plan is depressing the economy there. See more here at The Guardian.
Meanwhile, the oil price hit a 30 month high of US$110/bbl overnight on reports of fires in Libya's oil fields. See more here at Bloomberg.
No chart with that title exists.
53 Comments
Seems the ebbing tide is revealing many unpleasant sights. Balmforth should go plain and simple. He is in the business of insurance, and has been found without sufficient insurance. Does he not employ any actuaries?
Yes they will employed actuaries and independent consultants to peer review. In addition, given they were audited, the auditors have a responsibility through their standards to review the provisions and seek specialist independent advice as required on the policy profile.
So its all or nothing scenario and there is no reason to think several parties were all deficient in their duties as things do go wrong in business even with best endevours, especially insurance industry with the uncertainities involved, best practice may not model real life as it plays out...
Firstly speckles, you should try writing in English.
Secondly you should understand the sarcasm in my question "Did they employ any actuaries?"
Thirdly, consultants offer advice, they do not set policy.
Fourthly, the term 'specialist independent advice' is invented to instil confidence in something that one should be skeptical of.
Fifthly, 'international best practice' is meaningless, because each country has its own special set of circumstances.
Finally, your final comment "...with best endevours, especially insurance industry with the uncertainities involved, best practice may not model real life as it plays out..." would indicate that insurance, by its nature is worthless. Perhaps AMI would agree with you.
First - you don't know what you are talking about, which is now more transparent for everyone to see :-) That is a good thing!
Insurance is all based on calculated risk, which has its own inherent limitations. As long as the method appplied is best practice and prudent policy is set that is the the best one can do.
Specialist independent advice means a great deal in this context... with the financials being audited it is near certain the analysis has been reviewed with a second professional opinion obtained. This would then be compared to policy adopted... by the Auditor seeking advice from specialists.
The reality is you can have all the regulation in the world which will still rely on the same profession for answers and the same inherent limitations apply.
ps Don't take things so personally, english is not my first langauge, you always have the option not to bother reading or replying :-)
Here's Anne Gibson at the Herald with rivals complaining about AMI's underpricing over the years
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=107…
cheers
Article, hardly independent and full of self interest, for the lay person how can they realistically assess any insurer including the so call big international insurers, look at AIG you have no idea what risks they take on. Secondly there will be no cheap insurance going forward so that is a dead issue.
Hi,
yep...I just love the others coming out and whinning....oh they were too cheap....When I moved to NZ I used to be with State until I found out the hard way that thier repairers are bodge up merchants...so I shopped around and asked ppl I was with ASB (with NZI behind) and their price was good but when I left ASB, NZI wanted to jump my policies 30% or it would have if I hadnt moved already (and that became a nightmare in itself)....so like whats the difference in the risk profile now i'm in another bank? Paying through the nose is never an indication of quality. So, yes when you look at large insurers how do you as a layman actually determine who is reasonable? you cannot....So how is it done? govn/ RBNZ and/or the industries own body....
Mentioning AIG is a very good point........this was a private company whos un-regulated CDS business on the side ate them....."oh mutuals are bad" yeah right.
Insurance was going to rise anyway now I guess it will be a bigger rise again...maybe to the point that no re-insurance is possible. If indeed re-insurers leave AP which is apparently on the cards, then at that time the ECQ may have to take on full responsibility for housing as private companies cant offer insurance (watch the right wingers whine then) which means no mortgages which means...oh sh*t....no property market.....
regards
I don't agree with government bailouts either - we can't afford it for one thing
Knew finance companies had risks but was confident that dealing with a reputable insurance would be safe. If they are shown to be irresponsible the execs should be fired. I hope the execs of SCF are not still there with their huge salaries being paid by US
"I don't see AMI going out and advertising the fact that the government is behind us and trying to pick up market share," Balmforth said, adding that government support could be seen as a negative by some policy holders.
Oh really? Um, it's all over the news buddy. We all know, that we, the tax payers are now being lined up to prop up your 'business'. The media has just done their bit chipping in with a bit of free marketing for ya..what else can we give you?
NZOil production need tougher regulation too.
Obviously petrol prices are on the increase, production stressed and demand endless. The disasters in Fukushima, Gulf of Mexico, etc. clearly demonstrate the limits of what can be done without long- lasting damage for the environment – the planet – massive costs - us.
This morning an earthquake of magnitude 4.6 hit the Taranaki region. http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/geological-exploration/5
First question to the government:
Explain why a possible earthquake of magnitude 6.5 + of the coast of Taranaki does no environmental damage coming from oil production in the Taranaki basin.
Government under the microscope.
Furthermore - I think under the current worldwide scenario creating more financial, operational and social stress many more major “accidents” will occur. (e.g. aviation)
More questions to the government having super vision power over companies:
Example Pike River
After the West Virginia coal mine disaster the 8th of April 2010, the knowledge of Pike River’s operational and financial stress, why did the government not hold the operation for a safety check ?
What's next: How safe are coastal properties/ infrastructre, dams, reservoirs, etc, etc.
Drjonathanwilson If you were wondering why the ECB is raising its base rate then here you have the answer - a large part of the explanation lies in their market operations when buying PIIGS debt. (Emma do yourself a favour and find out who the buyers of debt are before you begin to trumpet “low” yields)
Consider this: The ECB knowingly buys worthless Portuguese, Irish, Greek and now Spanish debt (sovereign or bank bonds - it makes no real difference - it’s all trash) and in exchange provides drawing rights for these countries in Euros. This is QE by any other name.
Therefore to limit the inflationary effects of this QE, the Germans insist on interest rate rises.
As the effects of this interest rate rise feed into the PIIGS economies their ability to pay back the interest and capital falls as tax receipts fall due to falling economic activity.
Now I guess that everyone on this blog (except Chelly) can see and has seen for at least the last 2 years what an utterly futile process this is. No wonder then that AEP has taken himself off to the Mayan Highlands and Moraymint has pulled up the drawbridge – I suspect that they have no pleasure in witnessing the unfolding human misery. This is going to be a spectacular summer – to be remembered as the Molotov Summer.
Whilst it is plain for all to see that EMU is all but finished as we know it, my real concern now is with the UK and USA. Yes their sovereign debts have much longer maturity dates but that is only a small comfort.
The immediate threat comes from short term yield increases and the effect of these increases on disposable household income given the high proportion of mortgage repayments to after tax income.
For every 1% increase in the base rate, disposable income in the UK and USA could shrink by 10% to 15% for those without fixed rate mortgages. If one combines the effects of a 1% base rate increase on non-secured debt for the average household then the reduction in after tax and interest income is between 20% and 25%.
Consider the collapse in private demand in the UK and US economies of this magnitude and a Great Depression II is a certainty.
Jonathan http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/8436428/Spains-tough…
Thanks for that Andrew, it is always good to have these things explained for us novices. You have done particularly well in the last week:)
GD II will come alright, it is just a matter of how it manifests itself and how many stupid decisions can be squeezed in between now and then.
I guess a lot of people that come to this site are looking for reassurance. They are trying to work out how to protect themselves from these events. Really there isn't any comfort to be had.
Two main schools of though, inflation vs deflation. Both in reality are subject to the stupid decision yet to be made.
I do get the feeling that things are starting to build to a head now.
Scarfie, a friend sent me this, this morning, it will shock you. Its about banks and how they trade gold.
https://marketforceanalysis.com/article/latest_article_040611.html
I guess the question is, are they making enough profit from the dodgy activities now to cover themselves when they have to purchase PM's to cover their positions. Or will they go under leaving anyone with paper gold certificates out of pocket?
PM's look to make big moves in one direction or the other when the crunch comes.
Be a tough investment decision for someone to make at the already elevated price, although they have risen in tandem with other commodities. I know there are both bulls and bears on metals here. A percentage of capital would seem a sensible move though.
(actually I am not shocked at all.lol)
I have read this before....
"Clearly the majority of this trading is unbacked by physical gold. The bullion banks only make a ledger entry for gold sold or bought and as long as the client never asks for delivery the bank never has to have the gold. I have through my studies indicated that probably 45 ounces of gold have been sold for each one that exists."
LOL....dunno if its taht bad but anything over 1:1 is just fraudalant.
So one cant say if its a ponzi scheme or another finance company disaster just waiting to happen....like I said if you want to have gold, fair enough but always have it in your hand.
regards
Yep,
I read a number of ppl from Peter Schiff to Paul Krugman, its interesting that they can both say this is bad, yet see way different outcomes, inflation v deflation (and depression) and opposite solutions stop spending v keep spending. So far PK and Steve Keen's projections and comments are clearly coming true in the real world. The worry is just as Hajek convinced the US Govn in the 1930s to stop spending and caused a re-collapse this error seems to be destined to be repeated in 2011.....its like oh bugger, cant they see it didnt work? are they so hog tied by the likes of the ratings agencies, their own blinkers and theOECDs of this world etc that cant do the right thing?
So the only solution/outcome I can see is a depression and if you look at the GD you can see today the debt is far far bigger so the fall has to be far far further.....which means way nore pain and un-employment it was 30% then in NZ, where can it test this time?
Interesting, I love to see figures like these rule sof thumb....they help in appreciateing the size of the problem and the effect.
I suppose the RBNZ dropping the OCR 500 basis points means something like 12% help.
Rising the OCR to stop inflation then is a double whammy, not only are ppl paying the increased costs from goods but they also have to meet more interest payments.....all with no extra money....and how is this not deflationary? or not going to increase un-employemnt?
regards
Spotted on Trade Me ... $ Sale one VW Yellow with (cashflow) timing Problem . Comes with free finance co and Insurance Co. Ring William.
I love listening to people who are sooo knowledgable after an event.
If you listem to them - they always knew Christchurch would have a direct hit. They always knew that the aftershock would be far more damaging that the first quake. Its not like AMI didnt have reinsurance. The reinsurance was enough to cover the first quake, so who would have expected an aftershock to be so more damaging thus the reinsurance needed to be increased. Its not like AMI insured large item liabilities eg commercial buildings, they stuck to cars and houses which generally are a large volume of relatively small claims. The thing that tripped them up was that they were over represented in Chch (which would have been seen as a strengh compared to being over represented in Wgtn because we all know Wgtn has the highest risk of being be hit by 'the big one') and being a small NZ only group they haven't got a rich parent to support them.
The end result is that NZ insurance will be like the banks - no local firms.
While I agree on the knowledge about where, when and how big is impossible to foretell, I can't agree in any defence of AMI Neville.
A failure is a failure no matter what spin you put on it. I learnt a saying a long time ago, "all excuses are equal".
Really what it comes down to is that insurance is what we buy to protect us from the unforeseen. When the company we pay to do this fails because of something unforeseen, then where the hell do we stand?
It is pretty bleak really and it is getting to the stage where you might as well pass on the insurance and just put a little aside each week yourself. Actually I already do that:)
While I agree there is no excuse not to be 'fully covered', but the definition of 'fully covered' is always open to interpretation. Like banks, insurance works on a fractional reserve basis and never cover 100% of their total liability (ie everything they insured gets wiped out at one time). The question is what % will they have to pay on in any one year/period.
Over on NZherald Vero is going on about how big and strong they and their parent Suncorp are but if a metetor hit at the entrance to Sydney harbour, or more like, there was a perfect fire storm and 50% of Melbourne was reduced to ashes (and the other half 6 months later), would they be any better off than AMI? Are they 'fully covered' for these (very unlikely) possiblities? Size isn't the issue, its what % of the total liabilities are covered by reserves and reinsurance.
gotta agree with you nev,let all the depositors turn up at their respective banks wanting their cash out,when the chips are down who's really covered?how is suncorp doing with it's claims in oz?
You are a loony...
Oil is hitting a record price this year for 2 reasons, a) there is no spare capacity around the world, so a small drop in supply yeilds a huge boost in price....b) Unrest in the middle east has taken libya's production at the very least out of the market....so the demand will send it higher, right until we drop off the cliff into a global depression...
The reason that we can afford insurance is that the company does not keep or borrow on your behalf the exact amount of your potential loss less your contributions.
But works on the basis that not everyone will claim at once.
I guess that these same people think that the bank holds there balances in case they want to draw them out, yet no one wants to pay for the cost of storing these amounts in case you need them.
Insurance is great but the laws of nature play by a different set of rules, and these rules have not changed, so its a small jump to work out that insurance has limitations for all companies.
If everyone claims they fall over, think why health insurance is so expensive, thats like speeding up all other insurance claims, i.e. most people claim every year.
The fact that managers & directors got bonuses etc doesn't change the underlying risk, even if they paid their bonus's back, same result.
Yes its unpalatable but its real.
Blinkered fool....
WSJ is a financial paper and clueless....and inventories is different to production....try reading some engineering papers at say,
NB The inventory is 42 million barrels, we use world wide 85mbpd.....so on a world wide basis thats 12 hours oil...
Or,
Libya produces roughly 1.5mbpd.....so thats a month's oil....
and
Cushing, its the wrong oil in the wrong place....
Hence why Brent is $122 and climbing....and why Europe is panicking.....their entire economic recovery is dependant on growth of 3%+ and not a depression, which this price will probably trigger....
regards
You have these blinkers, they look so big 1/2 the planet is missing from your view, no actually most of it....
And then there is your bias....all you can see is where you expect to make a whole load of $ based on selling gold IOUs based on fear of hyper-inflation to the gullable.
regards
Another angle on this could be that with the gold standard the Anglo-Amercan empire would not have been able to print money to buy the oil, but instead would have had to invade somewhere a lot earlier to secure supply.
I think you and Steven are both right in a way. We are facing currency issues and peak oil at the same time. Think of the consequences of that! GD x 2, with no way back on the energy side.
But I also think you underestimate the potential for resource wars. For instance Egypt does not actually have enough water or food. It imports water in food. Time bomb there.
It is a bit off to suggest anyone here looks forward to the consequences though.
I think nzgold is denying peak oil....he seems to think its there but being hidden....if I read what he says correctly.
Are we seeing both at the same time or has peak oil and excessive debt caused currency issues? GD was similar and actually coming off the gold std actually seemed to allow some countries to recover sooner....
What blows me away with peak oil is the assumption that govns and economists make that future generations will be richer so can afford to pay our bills for us.....With Peak and the decline of oil this simply isnt the case...so its doubly morally bankrupt.
regards
Now we are bogged down in Lybia
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,755616,00.html
The front in Libya is barely moving as the country remains split between rebels and Gadhafi's troops. The rebels are complaining of not receiving enough air support, but NATO is hardly in a position to ramp it up after the withdrawal of US fighter jets. The resulting stalemate underscores the lack of a clear strategy for the allies in Libya.
American warplanes had hardly left the skies over Libya when the remonstrations began. "NATO has let us down," said rebel military chief Abdul Fattah Younis. As the rebels retreated in the town of Brega in the face of a heavy onslaught by Gadhafi's troops, there were no NATO planes in sight.
But the Libyan rebels are not alone in their complaints: Within NATO, there is also increasing frustration at the slow progress on the ground. The seemingly rudderless attacking and fleeing of the untrained fighters in the face of government soldiers is causing the Western allies to despair, albeit not in public, because it looks more and more likely that the undeclared aim of the international intervention -- the removal ofdictator Moammar Gadhafi -- will probably never be achieved.
Why worry AJ....the current situation sees two roughly balanced forces killing each other off...the CIA will be partying big time...007 and mob will be into the G&Ts...divide and....you know the rest.
You don't really think the 'rebel' forces would lead to a democracy do you....it would be one shite govt replacing the last....back to the future we go.....
The bastards who murdered people in on 9/11 and in london are into the thick of this trying to take control...the best policy is to encourage each group to destroy the other....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/us-politics/8436030/Barack-Ob…
Obama in talks..........US Govn shutdown? will the loser cave in?
regards
China is buying up the world
(making the US a debtor of the whole world)
Makes sense, use the USD to buy real things, they may still lose value but nothing like the USD...!
regards
It isnt extremely difficult to get to oil output, but its extremely difficult to accept it. Otherwise its been done by Marion King Hubbert,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg
ASPO, IEA....all of them as seperate studies and up to 50 years apart get to the same thing, about now.... If you look at the lie that is the IEA's latest there is a huge hole of nothing....nada.....zilch replacement....at that point, sorry its pretty obvious its recession and probably depression, which means deflation. There wont be the energy to drive inflation and no one will be buying goods, so gold isnt a sure bet...and when you see
http://www.thegreatdepression.co.uk/unemployment-during-the-great-depre…
30% un-employed that is devastating to GDP, consumerism/retail is stuffed, simple, share in Brisco? bad idea.....Inflation? no....I cant see it....
So the Q is what does the world after peak oil look like.....the best thing I can see is the Great Depression...mk2 but no respite in a decade....and maybe 3.
Things like,
"After land prices deflated to pennies"
Should send terror through the PIs.....
Inflation? no.
Un-employemnt -
For NZ an intersting piece though Im not sure its unbiased,
http://blog.samjfung.com/1999/06/archive-great-depression-in-new-zealan…
"Unemployment actually increased when there were cuts in Government expenditure."
So its being said today and its a re-run from the GD....it seems even with real world examples we cant learn from them.
Exports....collapses of 30% dont seem un-realistic....sorry Les....
I dont know how low tourism can go but it looks a long way.....
Now without doubt the USA is a Nepocracy and will collapse, the Q is how, but this doesnt mean the rest of the world will follow suit. and to the same degree....and jsut what brings it out? inflation is on the way out of a depression, the US has nothing to sell.....ergo it wont come out.
regards
I'm not an expert.
The situation in the world will change fast like never experienced before in human history - experts and their arguments within one minute - have no value.
Hell aren't we all the gloomsters today:)
20% more plus double the EQC charge plus...TAX on top...oh what a way to go...woopee and it's into the recession we rush....notice how the insurance companies NEVER take a loss on the chin...no fecken way hozay...you the sucker man cos you get to pay.
If your house is freehold..not at risk from: flood,slips,Tsunami,crims,fire,quakes and a mob of kids.................you just might want to go it alone...oh sure fit a proper external firehose long enough to reach round the house...and get some extinguishers for the inside....like the kitchen and woodstove area.....
What's the insurance bill look like reaching...way above $1000 a year !...that's ten thousand saved every decade for some precautions and fire prevention measures in and round the house. Over the life of the average house...it'll amount to a stonking load of money....invest it and build it as your own insurance pot.
Wolly dont be silly....
I dont know why you are paying $1000 to insure your house you must be considered some sort of extra risk...or live in a McMansion or something.
Doing some quick numbers it looks like going upto $600 a year....thats not even 1% of the value of my house!
Having talked to some ppl in the insurance industry, house insurance is actually pretty competitive, and its well known having been around for something like 500 odd years so its pretty good value....ditto contents isnt too bad....
regards
You forgot the EQC lump with gst on top steven...it'll be $1000 in no time....I expect many to stop paying and paying and paying....the occasional bust window is about all you get...I'm talking about properties with very low risk....people will stop paying.
New radioactive leak at Onagawa, Japan, after recent 7,1 earthquake
Wolly,
And then all we Self Insurers could all save it in a special Finance Company, taxed on the proceeds, ably backed by the Government, paying itself out of the proceeds and living the high life.
Oops...that is what we already do.
The vultures (hedge funds) are eyeing distressed Europe.
Europe's distressed $ 2 Trillion debt is set to outstrip the US
Read and weep, particularly if you have connections to Europe.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-04-08/europe-s-2-trillion-distres…
Charles hugh Smith has an interesting blog today
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
Here's the basic mechanism: when money is "free," costs rise. and I followed the link to here http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec10/productivity12-10.html
Productivity, Baumol's Disease and the Cliff Just Ahead
more shenanigans from the insurance industry in chch--this time re business interruption policies---their interpretation is that payout figures are worked out post event and take into account passing pedestrian traffic---of which in most case,s at the present time is zero--they are up to the same capers here in brisbane too----in Grantham where the majority of fatality,s occurred policy holders were covered for flash flooding but not flood so the insurance co,s hydrologists have determined the flash flood component is 20% ----people are submitting claims for total devastation and being offered 20% of that claim--may be it,s time for a bit of a physical approach from those affected --
a bit more of the same---stirling behaviour by the racq in brisbane---used car salesmen,s reputation,s used to get a bad rap---they,re street,s ahead of the insurance industry in regard to integrity---
Great Documentary on th GD..
So the USA moves ever closer towards Depression...and is actually accelerating itself towards it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/08/opinion/08krugman.html?_r=1&partner=r…
Lets cut the tax rates for the rich to 25%, yep lets add $3trillion to the deficit.....and its not even mathematically justifiable let alone economically sound....the assumption is cutting the top rate to 25% will boost the economy so far the un-employment rate drops to under 3%.....
On top of that it seems the ECB is also having a loony moment, raising the OCR...while core inflation is flat or dropping.....
We are so f*cked......and Obama? he's obviously sold out....he's doing a better job of being a Republican that a Republican President would ever do....and of course he's a "democrate" so he gets the flak for the coming mess....the GOP must be so happy.
So a Palin and Ryan twosome next year seems a dead cert....Obama has no hope of being re-elected.....he's a fool and a loser....
The GOP dont want a compromise, its right wing extremism or death....Obama just surrendered....I dont understand why someone who's supposed to be so intelligent cant see he's dinged his own political death warrant.
regards
Icesave...
Is Icelandic citizenship for sale?
'No' Vote Ahead In Icesave Referendum, Shows Partial Results
and jumping the gun at the Telegraph Iceland rejects UK repayment deal
Will Iceland Vote “No” Or Commit Financial Suicide?
By Michael Hudson
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27851.htmLet the courts decide?
op-ed piece. Soros-"Bretton Woods"
Soros, by the way, is funding this initiative to the tune of $50 million whereby 200 academic, business and government policy leaders focus on "establishing new international rules" and "reform the currency system."
Maybe that's why President Obama is cool as a cucumber -- spending nearly a billion to invade Libya without breaking a sweat despite the fact we are broke, and skipping town to campaign for his 2012 re-election in the middle of tense budget negotiations.
Obama knows the world financial system is being reconfigured - "Chinese style." He may be reasoning that "George has got my back."
A gaggle of gays and a bunch of self-serving unionists ! ............ Ah , my friends , it is a great day to be a free-enterpriser , as the socialists are in a bloody quagmire . Joy upon joy . Because as utterly pathetic as JK and the Nats are , Goofy and Labour are many times worse .
Nice work Damien O'Conner : Um , just by-the-by , the Labour Party was formed by a bunch of unionists , on your beloved West Coast . ............... But how it happened that the Rainbow Brigade took over the party has many buggered .
Perhaps they are one and the same Gummy...gay union bosses!.....Labour are rushing into political history destined to become no more than a footnote. National will have a majority post November and with it they could turn things round...they won't....they will make the usual bloody mess of running the place....it's a sure bet Gummy.
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