Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news over the weekend that gold and silver prices rose to new highs on growing fears about inflation and a further rise in commodity prices.
There is also talk that China will buy more of the precious metal to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar. See more here at Bloomberg.
Gold rose further over US$1500/oz and silver nearly hit US$50/oz, which was its high set during 1980 when the Bunker-Hunt brothers cornered the market.
Tension continued to rumble in the Middle East where massive demonstrations in Syria were crushed by tanks and troops mowing down protesters. See more here at BBC.
Meanwhile, Canada's Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner, has trumped a bid by China's Minmetals for Perth-based Equinox Minerals, bidding US$7.7 billion in cash.
Equinox owns Africa's biggest copper deposit. See more here at Bloomberg.
This demonstrates the hot demand for commodities, which is pushing up currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars.
See the weekly currency review and outlook with Daniel Bell from Hi FX, where the Reserve Bank's rates decision on Thursday and the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) are discussed.
The RBNZ is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate on hold until the end of the year.
While the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is expected to discuss in his first press conference how the world's biggest central bank will end its money printing programme, which is at least partly responsible for the inflation fears and the commodity rally to three year highs.
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23 Comments
Good morning Wolly, gee got to be up early to beat you to the start line but good to see you are off to a positive start for the day:)
That link of yours to the Market Oracle might go down again well in this thread. The one about what Bernanke will do on Wednesday. Seems quite a reasonable prediction even though I only understood half of it.lol.
When the regime changes, mostly the oil production collapses and never really recovers.....not good.....ppl are revolting becasue they want food and see an opportunity to get a better Govn at the same time, neither will happen....welcome to the Great Austerity....
IEA's latest,
http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?ID=1928
regards
Bernard I had dinner on Sunday night with a silver bug friend.
His prediction is $59 by Xmas after a pull back at some point.
Reckons in 5 years or so he will get out of it and go into land. This plan despite the fact he could take over 100% profit on average, some of it at over 200%.
Comments I like suggest at some point getting into hard assets....so I think he's right though I think if it was me 5 years is too long and I had money in silver I'd jump very soon (not later than end of this year) into cash and then land (3 odd years from the start of the collapse, so 2014 or so)... I see silver as a small bubble (but it can be sold fast?)....land right now is over-priced, so wait for its collapse and cash is the best bet in a deflationary environment...
The best comment Ive seen is that the ppl who make real money know when to jump asset classes, this is where you make real gains....doing that (timing) is of course is very hard.
Its interesting just how many different opinions on the future isnt it?
I find it fasinating....
All I have done is clear all the debt I can....and hold a small cash reserve just in case....
regards
Wolly - point-scoring rhetoric aside, it's easy to see what's happening:
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/latest-imf-world-gdp-forecasts.ht…
http://earlywarn.blogspot.com/2011/04/wow-just-wow.html#more
Note his "holy crap" comment, and read - carefully - the lifted piece.
Energy, Wolly, it's all dependent on energy. Nothing else.
Two good urls...the second made my "keep" folder...
"Can inelasticity really be this bad?"
Yes....
I think over the last few years ppl have cut petrol usage........I know I now rarely use the car for say pleasure purposes, use the train far more....when I do its $80 gone in a day....cant sustain that while on holiday...let alone once or twice during the month....so yes I think now I'd wear the cost of petrol price increases, ive minimalised, I drive at 90kmh I cant do anything else....not easily.....so the low hanging fruit have gone...hence I can see its so in-elastic....in the developing world I think there are signs that is also the case.....africans going back to stone grinding corn/wheat for instance.
Hmm he seems to think it will become more elastic.....I dont agree....
regards
We're gonna tank , you say ? .............. C'mon Scarfie , no one " knows " , everyone is just pushing an opinion ............ Remember that crackpot who reckoned Christchchurch would have a 8.2 'quake , back in March . And that other loop-job who reckoned that house prices in NZ would tumble 30 % in just one year ( 2009 ) ..........
..... Black Swans are the things to watch for ...... And they're not necessarily bad events .
Well to reinforce PDK's argument, energy(oil) is everything. There is a strong correlation between oil and GDP.
I guess to turn this around, the question to you is how do you expect the burgeoning debt around the world to be paid back?
Although no one really knows, there are clues in the past. Human behaviour particularly. For instance the fools in this country keep voting for the same clowns who are just a different shades of the same colour. You just know they won't fix the structural problems and will continue until those problems cause collapse. Ireland is living in the moment right now.
What black swans?
I dont follow you.....peak oil isnt a black swan...its known, its documented....70% of oil is transport, ie the stuff of globalisation.....commerce....
Oil is vital GBH....mainly because there is no alternative....we are adicted....
bye bye economy....
regards
Yep....the unkowns are, when will it start, how quick/steep, how far and how long. All the factors are worse/bigger than before the GD which dropped in three years this suggests less than 3 years .....some things Ive seen suggest an eye opening 25% drop in GDP....or others do a japan and 2% for 2 decades...same thing really.
regards
"$500m Rugby World Cup deficit"! But, but.. the RWC and The Hobbit were going to be our financial salvation this year...
The RWC, as brought to us by Labour in 2005.
Got to give it to Helen, she knew she was not going to be the Dear Leader in 2011 so was quite happy for NZ to pay for a lossmaking event. Almost as bad as the train set Cullen brought in 2008 in Labour's dying days.
Labour - sending NZ broke since they introduced welfare in the 1930s.
Re Ag & Au, bubble, pop & burst. As per the lefty slogans 'Nice to have' but in the end you cannot eat it.
Maybe not, but precious metals are the medium of exchange most favoured throughout history and even if the future is extremely grotty some hovels will still be better than others and I know where those with all the glod will be living. I can not have the same certainty for those with money in the bank.
Paaaaaaarteeeee time........
"A group of Christchurch City Councillors considering a trip to San Francisco to learn about quake recovery should find out if the trip will go-ahead later today.
Councillors Jamie Gough, Tim Carter and Aaron Keown are considering using their $4000 council training allowance"..." ???
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