Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the S&P 500 fell more than 2.5% overnight on renewed fears the US and European economies are headed into a triple dip recession.
See more on the US stock market's slump here at Bloomberg.
Markets ignored Barack Obama's signing of a bill to raise the US Debt Ceiling on the last day possible before America's government ran out of cash. See more here on the debt deal at BBC.
Manufacturing output figures for America, Europe and China in recent days have all suggested a slow down in activity growth. Second quarter US GDP figures on Friday were disappointing and figures out overnight showed US consumer spending fell 0.2% in June while income rose 0.1%. See more here at BBC.
This reinforces the central problem in the indebted developed economies of deleveraging dragging on growth for years to come.
There is renewed talk that the US Federal Reserve will roll out a third round of bond buying known as quantitative easing (QE III). See more here at Bloomberg on QE III talk. This helped push the 10 year US Treasury yield down to 2.6%. See more on the fall in US Treasury yields here at Bloomberg.
Gold hit a fresh record high of US$1,647/oz on the recession, financial turmoil and money printing fears. See more here at Bloomberg.
This move to take risk off the table globally saw the New Zealand dollar fall briefly under 87 USc.
Also, fears of a sovereign debt crisis returned to Europe. There are renewed worries about whether Spain and Italy can continue to service their high government debts as their economies also slowed.
Italian and Spanish bond yields spiked to Eurozone highs and their spreads to German bund yeilds, a key measure of nervousness, also rose to record highs.
Italian 10 year bond yields rose over 6.25% and are getting nearer a point where the government won't be able to afford to access the bond markets. See more here at The Telegraph. A crisis meeting was called overnight because Italy's government is due to run out of cash by September if it cannot access bond markets. See more here at Reuters.
Spanish bond yields spiked to 6.45% or 4% above German bunds. The Prime Minister cancelled a Summer holiday to deal with the crisis. Spain will run out of cash by February if it cannot access bond markets. See more here at Bloomberg.
There are reports European money markets are again beginning to freeze because of the uncertainty. See more here from Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Telegraph.
Meanwhile back here, the price of milk powder sold in Fonterra's fortnightly internet auction overnight fell a further 1.3%. This extends the fall in prices to 21% in US dollar terms since March 1. This is a double whammy for farmers who have seen the New Zealand dollar rise 17% vs the US dollar over the same period. See the full Fonterra auction results here.
The New Zealand dollar strengthened vs the Australian dollar to 80c late yesterday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held its official cash rate at 4.75%. Markets now see a good chance the next move by the RBA will be a cut as its domestic economy struggles with high household debts and falling house prices, despite the booming mining sector.
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28 Comments
The fact that NZ was seen as a safe haven is telling IMHO. Ive long wondered how the NZD wasnt, but its seems in extremis it is somewhat. I mean its mostly good news, while we have too much money in property, we earn foreign exchange, have a low population and have resources, to me fundimentally we should be pretty sound compared to many. Got to wonder why we are AA-(?) and the US is AAA yet just why they ran to us, that should mean we are higher surely?
Its taken a lot for investors belief in the US as a safe haven to be shaken. More will come, they havnt fixed their problems, indeed seem hell bent on making them worse.
regards
Here's the link to Moody's confirming US AAA, however still negative outlook, indicating possible downgrade in next 12-18 months.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/02/us-usa-rating-moodys-idUSTRE7716HD20110802
GBH is in rehab Christov, trying to kick his bear habit. He left a message for his fans at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=astISOttCQ0 . Just not the same around here without him rarking BH.
China has no fear...
Its own credit rating agency Dagong has downgraded America's credit rating from A+ to A.
This from Tyler at Zero
China's rating agency Dagong, unlike its worthless western counterparts, has come through on its threat to downgrade the US in the event a subpar debt ceiling deal was hammered out. China demonstrates what happens when a rating agency actually knows how to do addition and/or long division.
Maybe you should keep a lantern burning for them in your window...?
Funny thing most other market commentators said "so what...!"
China has no fear.... .....W.T.F. what the hell is that supposed to mean..?
It's nice to hear the communists have thier own credit rating agency.....maybe they could take a look at our balance sheet minus the bullshit and give us a new grade while they are so involved settings things straight...uh.
China is in queer street, if America cant buy, then China has no market.Its fairly evident that America isnt the brightest star on the block at the moment as falling reciepts confirm.Raising the Debt ceiling is all it could do...George Soros engaged a top accountant who told him if Americas Debt hits 44% of gdp then the American economy is Terminal...It hit 47% last count.All this points to sad times ahead...China has been kicked out of Libya.Its only a matter of time before Iran tests its first nuke..then i'll be dam glad im living in NZ..and couldnt give a stuff about economics anyway.
Theres goes the USA
The rating outlook is now negative, Moody’s said in a statement yesterday after President Barack Obama signed into law a plan to lift the nation’s borrowing limit and cut spending.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/u-s-aaa-rating-faces-moody-s-d…
Wall streets in trouble
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/02/markets-stocks-idUSN1E7711SW2… the EU is fighting for its life http://www.cnbc.com/id/43988195 and in Greece there is a bank run http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change"The Green Party has unveiled a $1 billion plan to bring 100,000 children out of poverty by 2014.
Under the plan, the party says it would increase Working for Family payments to beneficiaries giving an extra $60 a week to 140,000 of the poorest households.
It would increase tertiary study support for sole parents and beneficiaries so they can attend university.
The third part of the plan involves raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour - a difference it says of about $60 a week to someone working full-time" radionz
Pinky greens slicing the pork...one vote and you get 3 slices!....but who pays for the pork?
I think the idea is you increase WFF payments and take it out of the ETS "savings/fiddles" going on...however my reply to them was the ETS money should be going on Green tech and green jobs so thier parents have employment or better employment, seems it wasnt well taken.
Not sure why I bother being in the Green party at times...
regards
I'm not sure increasing WFF payments would have the desired effect. Might be better to give food parcels/school uniforms etc than extra cash that can be spent on stuff that won't benefit the kids at all.
Steven, if you are serious about supporting kids in poverty, you might want to be involved here (for example) http://www.kidscan.org.nz/
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