90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Fall in US jobless claims boosts US stocks; NZ$ near 77.5 USc; Fitch warns may cut US AAA rating; Greek creditors rebel; KordaMentha sets Crafar deadline

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Fall in US jobless claims boosts US stocks; NZ$ near 77.5 USc; Fitch warns may cut US AAA rating; Greek creditors rebel; KordaMentha sets Crafar deadline

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that US jobless claims fell 4,000 to 364,000 last week, surprising economists who had expected it to rise to 380,000.

This sign of resilience in the US economy helped boost US stocks around 0.6% by late trade. European stocks also rose around 1% overnight. See more here at Bloomberg.

The New Zealand dollar was firm this morning around 77.5 USc in line with the stronger overseas stock markets, despite ultimately disappointing GDP figures yesterday. See more here in BNZ's Currencies report.

However, revised figures out for the September quarter found the world's largest economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.8%, which was less than expected.

Also, Fitch Ratings warned it may cut America's AAA credit rating because of rapidly rising US government debt.

Fitch said the government would need to find US$3.5 trillion of budget savings in coming years to stabilise the US debt to GDP ratio at 90%. Zerohedge reported yesterday the ratio had risen above the key 100% seen as dangerous for any economy to rise beyond. See more here at Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Greek creditors are rebelling against a plan that would effectively increase the size of the losses they will have to take on their holdings of Greek government debt to 65% from 50%.

This ratchets up the level of tension around Greece's precarious finances and will complicate already fraught efforts to solve the European debt crisis.

Closer to home, receiver KordaMentha announced last night it had set a January 31 deadline for Chinese bidder Shanghai Pengxin to finalise its purchase of Crafar Farms. The bid has yet to receive approval from the Overseas Investment Office.

Stuff reports there is a fresh 'mystery' bidder for Crafar Farms that wants to obtain foreign funding.

Finally, we at Interest.co.nz wish everyone a Merry Christmas and pass on our best wishes for a safe and happy holiday season to all, particularly all the good people at Bank of New Zealand who have supported the 90 seconds at 9 am video over the last two years. This is our last 90 seconds at 9 am for 2011. We resume on January 9.

For your viewing pleasure and for those hoping for a White Christmas in New Zealand, here is Alex Tarrant's video of snow falling outside the Reserve Bank.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.


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So will America be able to pay back it's 15.1 trillion in loans once their economy picks up? Or maybe the plan is to never pay it back?

69er - a lot of events and developments are happening before nations can think of balancing their books –  will they ever ? I don’t think so.

Trade- and currency wars/ possible end of globalisation/ economic wars/ massive unemployment/ political unrest, instability, wars/ climate change and natural events/ industrial accidents, catastrophes/ combined with other internal social (e.g. inequality) economic and financial burdens of nations - an unachievable goal - the contrary prohibitively expensive.

While 2011 told us how much mess exists – 2012 is going to tell us the time is already up to solve it – and worldwide turbulent and unpredictable events are taking place, having bad impacts in our daily lives also.

 Looking into current developments on many fronts – the world will never recover again, simply because among the powerful in societies ethic and moral requirements and standards don’t prevail.

Happy Christmas – eat as many cakes as you can to get prepared !



So, all in all, the year has ended on quite a positive note.    The ATMs are still working, our houses still valued at 2007 + prices, interest rates still low, Trademe up to 2.97 .... etc etc ...

Ever considered a career as a political party spin doctor?

Merry Christmas Bernard and all the team at interest.co.nz

May your good work continue in 2012 and beyond

For those of us in Canterbury , it has been an tortuous year , and yet .. .. the sun still shines , Watties got a bumper  harvest  of peas , and the whores have moved up to the posher end of Manchester Street ...........

........ Gummy reckons that as long as things aren't so bad that your skull actually melts , then even the bad times are good .........

Merry Christmas one & all . And a happy new year .

Hey aren't you the guy who also wants to shoot parents dead in front of their kids for daring to protest?

..... and lastly , Father Christmas , please bring a new " sense-of-humour " for south paw ....

And  not one of those German " sense-of-humours "  , they don't work much .......

..... try a Chinese made one , they seem to be having the last laugh on us ......


So 2011 is almost a done deal.

2012 anyone?


On a completely irrelevant note:

North Korea has a GDP per capita income of $1800
South Korea has a GDP per capita income of $24,000 US.

Which system would you rather live under?  Socialism or Capitalism (despite it's big bank/corp failings)?

There's nothing wrong with prosperity.  Doesn't have to wreck the environment or oppress people.

Prefer to live in a society with a healthy democracy.

Capitalism is happiest with a 'business friendly' authoritarian regime. Democracy is annoying because labor has the freedom to organise, the citizens tend to do bad things via their representatives like putting in place minimum wages, anti child labour laws, enviromental protection, anti monopoly/cartel regulations.

Not good for business at all!

None of them are democracy or socialism or capitalism - just remember how South started....and who supported... and for what.

But you may compare Saudi with South Korea - that would be interesting.....similar GDP per capita.....and similar government structure.

Yes MB - It is amazing what fantastic propaganda can do to you.

Isn't it great....fabulous govt has ensured we remain a property speculators turd economy...you gotta give National credit for that. And talking of credit, we are entering 012 with LVR positions back into the 90% range...so much for affordable housing and with gst at 15% on new houses the average family would be feeding Bill English about $30,000 of mostly money created by a bank and costing near $2000 in just interest each year.

Xmas present given to the CCC CEO ...he needs the $500,000 plus salary...can't expect to survive on less..big thankyou to the ratepayers and the shite who made it possible because based on that, every council CEO in NZ will demand they also get a massive fat increase for doing the same work.

Spare a thought for the landlords....those taking the subsidy via the tenants...it's an awful problem you know...so much free money...off to the real estate mob to grab another renter cos there's no limit ...

No one would call you a Redneck, Wolly.

Tribeless would no doubt approve opf all you say.......................except he/she would not have tongue in cheek.

Wolly, dont know how accurate this is but the graph in the lower left hand corner of the image (in the following article) shows a surprising results shift in LVR between 87% through 95%


If it's right, the banks can influence prices dramatically with a 1% LVR shift.

Then there is very little upside left in the housing market, unless the banks decide to go over 100% LVR's.

Seems strange that our RB hasn't implemented a regulatory LVR regime, given the effectiveness. More here:


Is it just about land supply?

Cheers to all and Merry Christmas, Les.


 Les Rudd:  That Link. Revealing article about property in Texas and Houston. Read the many comments by real Texans and particularly real Houstonians. Gives a somewhat different perspective compared to what Huge-One and his Tonto claim. Also gives a real-human confirmation of Wolly's statements about the banks desire to push high LVR's.

Here is one comment by a Luxemburger Apr 5, 2010
Anyone who went through the real estate bust in Houston in 1986 knows what can happen. I lost 30 percent on my house when had to sell, and the market value of that property has only now returned to what it was when I purchased it in 1983. When experts say it will take 20 years for most values to return to pre-bust levels, they are right. The Houston bust of mid eighties was as bad as the current national one, with exactly the same results: mortgages underwater, people walking away from their houses (my neighbors on both sides left in the middle of the night...), half the builders bankrupt, vast tracks of unfinished houses rotting away. Those who were in Houston at the time remember well, and prayed they would never see times like those again...

To be fair to Hugh, while he champions the particular solutions that he does, it was Hugh that provided that link and he has also noted in other discussions the Texan LVR regime does help with affordability.

I guess we all favour a particular solution or two, while we shun others that might be equally potent. The greater problem is not affordability and productivity, but the fact that the problem solving process is distorted by politics from the outset, meaning we don't end up with a thorough analysis that reveals all options and their likely effects, both negative and positive. 

Banana anyone?

Junket anyone...?

 "Speaker Lockwood Smith will head to Trinidad and Tobago early next month for the biannual Commonwealth Conference of Speakers" herald.

Just as well nobody invented web conferencing isn't it....take your togs Lockwood and don't hit the bottle in the heat will you...

Just because web conferencing exists doesn't mean there can never ever be any more face to face meetings in the world.


So what happens when you're in the big chair and you cancel the rent subsidies Wolly?

double post

Merry Christmas everybody, and all the best for 2012.

New Zealand’s oil reserves target met for 2012

New Zealand has secured oil reserves for 2012 that ensure the country will continue to meet its international obligations, Energy and Resources Minister Phil Heatley announced today.

“As a member of the International Energy Agency, New Zealand is required to hold 90-days of stock of the previous year’s net oil imports,” says Mr Heatley.

“New Zealand's total 90-day obligation for 2012 is 1.1 million tonnes.  The majority of these reserves are commercial stocks held by companies in the oil and gas sector,” says Mr Heatley.

Oil reserves are secured through a global tender, with stocks held under 'ticket' contracts that provide the government with an option to purchase crude oil and petrol petroleum in the event of an IEA-declared emergency.

“Tickets have been secured from Japan, Netherlands and the United Kingdom for 146,000 tonnes of stock in 2012. The reserves include both petrol and crude oil,” says Mr Heatley.                                                                                                                  

“This requirement compares with volumes of around 100,000 tonnes in the last three years (2009, 2010 and 2011), 285,000 tonnes in 2008, and 461,000 tonnes held in 2007.

“I am very pleased that New Zealand will continue to be in full compliance with its IEA obligations,” says Mr Heatley.

New Zealand has bilateral arrangements with Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands that enable negotiations for ticket contracts for oil stocks held in those countries to be counted towards New Zealand's IEA obligations. 

"I would like to thank the Governments of Japan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom for their help and cooperation to enable New Zealand to meet its stock holding obligations for 2012,” says Mr Heatley.



What's the counterparty risk?

Yep, happy Xmas and a merry NY ter y'all.


And don't ferget, it them as what's owns most of the Lead, (and has sumpin' ter put it in)  that has the last laugh.


Gold and arable land help, too.

How is it that the yanks still have a triple AAA rating.

Are the raters living in a dream world.

That's the spirit , Sore-loser ! ....

. ... tell " 2011 " to feck off , and don't let the door hit you on the arse as you leave .....

2012 : It can only get better from here on .....

...... can't it , Mr Hickey , wise star to the prognosticators ? ..... grip your crystal balls Bernie , and tell us what you see .......

 " Chen, died in Shenzhen – a booming industrial town that borders Hong Kong – where thousands of chickens have already been culled after three birds tested positive for avian influenza virus in mid-December"


Sooner or later this virus or a mutation of it will solve the world human population crisis! 

I have cut Hong Kong from my must visit list Walter...it was ok in 89...still British then old boy....different story now.

Wolly - I have never been to a “Meat City” (5M+) in my life and I have no desire to go to one.

It was ok Walter...safe as...then....don't know about now....if that virus slips past the barriers we will know....

I’m struggling seeing ten thousands of  tie and high heel people driving and then storming with their corrupt suitcase into the corrupt buildings on elevators looking at each other or hundred thousands of poor people hanging out on overloaded, poor buses going the cruel markets –  daily on a sunny day.

I like less in 2012.

Get your a--- into gear SL.....I was out cutting down Kanuka firewood back of the farm at 7am...and that was a late start....2nd time I have posted this....it's a blinder mate...!


7 a.m. ? ....... luxury !

..... I got up 3 hours before I went to bed , and had to celebrate New Year's eve a second time .

7 a.m. ........ softy !

Why sausages before dawn?

My dog as usual got me up at five am for her walk; we put it off until seven and a break in the rain. Stupid weather.

Unrelated to the topics above - but came across this today.  Has anyone seen/heard/read much about this?




Yes , we debated this issue several months ago ....... and I hear that it is being aired on RadioLive today ....

... one of the reasons that some of us " centre-right " voters refuse to support the John Key government is that they represent big-bureaucratic government ..... unlike National of past , who favoured freedom & free enterprise ......

I would like to see a reasoned counter-argument to this debate . So far we only have the arguments slamming the legislation ..... and it does look fairly damning , at first glance .

... if the " sheeples " of NZ don't study up on this legislation , they could be lumbered with a set of policies that make Sue Bradfords anti-smacking bill look like sane policy , by comparison ..

Meanwhile the war in the Gulf is one step closer....


Count on every Iranian naval vessel being targetted for destruction..plus the naval bases...and the fuel depots and every military establishment throughout Iran..and every business run by the military...and all of the infrastructure...and the nuclear sites...bridges...tunnels....rail terminals....power stations....dams....communications facilities...

Obama will win reelection on taking Iran out of the game.

You have been caught giving zee cabbage to our state undercover agent....vee find you guilty as sin und condem you to a life of servitude vorking for low vages to pay off zee very high mortgage debt...for you there is no escape so....hand over all your money thankyou....our state agents must be paid yes.

 "A bill bringing sweeping reform to food safety standards is being criticised for giving food safety officers excessive power and threatening the viability of small-scale food sellers and backyard community food swaps..............................

An online petition, which says the bill impedes the basic right to share food, has gathered almost 24,000 signatures."


Govt to announce employment for 100,000 food safety inspectors needed to enforce the new laws expected to passed this year. Uniforms are on order from Berlin.

It is quite easy to create your own customized Christmas picture cards. You will just need a cardstock, covers, images, stick, scissers and some components for design christmas msgs