2011 the first year in more than a decade that New Zealand suffered a net migration outflow

2011 is the first year in a decade New Zealand had a calendar year net permanent migration loss.

1,855 more people left the country permanently than arrived, the highest outflow since the 11,330 net loss in calendar 2000.

Statistics NZ said that the seasonally adjusted net loss of migrants in December 2011 was 500 people. Net losses have been recorded in 9 of the 10 months since the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch.

Unadjusted figures showed 1,100 more departures of New Zealand citizens compared with December 2010, including 900 more to Australia. There were also 500 fewer arrivals of New Zealand citizens. 

New Zealand had a net loss of 1,855 migrants in the December 2011 year. This is the largest net loss since the August 2001 year (4,400).

In 2011, there was a net loss of 36,900 people to Australia, the highest ever recorded. There were 51,100 departures to Australia, offset by 14,200 arrivals from Australia. In both directions, most migrants were New Zealand citizens.

There were net gains of migrants from most other countries, led by the United Kingdom (5,500), India (4,900), and China (4,700) in the December 2011 year.

In contrast to the loss of migrants, there were strong visitor arrival numbers - there were 364,200 visitor arrivals in December 2011, the highest recorded for any month.

Jane Turner, an economist at ASB Institutional said:

The allure of the Australian job market continues to motivate New Zealanders to make the move across the Tasman. Indeed, the strong pace of permanent departures to Australia shows little sign of abating, despite the recent slowdown in Australia’s job market.

Over the coming year, we expect a pick up in NZ job growth coupled with slower job growth in Australia will result in a decline in the number of permanent departures. Meanwhile, permanent and long-term arrivals dipped 5.8% over the month, reversing out the previous month’s increase. The slack in NZ’s labour market and reduced demand for migrant workers is a contributing factor to a more subdued pace of permanent arrivals.

The net migration outflow recorded over 2011 has contributed to slower population growth, and has helped alleviate some of the pressure on the tight housing market – particularly in Canterbury and Auckland.  We continue to expect migration to recover over 2012, as the ongoing recovery in NZ’s labour market helps stem the steady flow across the Tasman.

The pace of net outflows is yet another factor which reduces any urgency for the RBNZ to increase interest rates over 2012.